Anthony Painter
@anthonypainter.bsky.social
Policy. Political economy. Increasing bewilderment.
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
"The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter
#ynwa
Pinned
Will Labour's political economy work?
What could go wrong and what could go right with the Government's economic strategy? Its fundamental economic statecraft and its risks and opportunities are becoming clearer.
open.substack.com
Will Labour's political economy work? New Substack.
We can see three features at play:
- Productivism
- Stability
- Transactional international economy (nb Trump given this morning's events!)
open.substack.com/pub/anthonyp...
We can see three features at play:
- Productivism
- Stability
- Transactional international economy (nb Trump given this morning's events!)
open.substack.com/pub/anthonyp...
Reposted by Anthony Painter
The idea the world has been free riding on the backs of poor America was the signal that US elites have taken leave of their senses.
The deal was they buy globally, savings from elsewhere fund their extravagant lifestyles. They fund a military that supports this system.
That's what they wanted.
The deal was they buy globally, savings from elsewhere fund their extravagant lifestyles. They fund a military that supports this system.
That's what they wanted.
January 19, 2026 at 8:05 AM
The idea the world has been free riding on the backs of poor America was the signal that US elites have taken leave of their senses.
The deal was they buy globally, savings from elsewhere fund their extravagant lifestyles. They fund a military that supports this system.
That's what they wanted.
The deal was they buy globally, savings from elsewhere fund their extravagant lifestyles. They fund a military that supports this system.
That's what they wanted.
It is absurd that there are three different customs arrangements for territories on these islands full stop. Whatever happens with Trump.
The whole Brexit deal is absurd. Brexit is absurd. All of it.
The whole Brexit deal is absurd. Brexit is absurd. All of it.
January 19, 2026 at 6:38 PM
It is absurd that there are three different customs arrangements for territories on these islands full stop. Whatever happens with Trump.
The whole Brexit deal is absurd. Brexit is absurd. All of it.
The whole Brexit deal is absurd. Brexit is absurd. All of it.
Something I have learned today: there are companies that offer to help you get an OBE, MBE etc for a fee. And I have to say, in fairness to them, it seems they aren't entirely unsuccessful.
January 19, 2026 at 1:24 PM
Something I have learned today: there are companies that offer to help you get an OBE, MBE etc for a fee. And I have to say, in fairness to them, it seems they aren't entirely unsuccessful.
If Trump disappeared tomorrow.....
We still have:
- Impaired access to our closest markets.
- A military and intelligence structure that is integrated with a capricious ally.
- A fiscal system that can't meet demands on the state.
- A state that is overwhelmed.
Something has to give.
We still have:
- Impaired access to our closest markets.
- A military and intelligence structure that is integrated with a capricious ally.
- A fiscal system that can't meet demands on the state.
- A state that is overwhelmed.
Something has to give.
January 19, 2026 at 11:07 AM
If Trump disappeared tomorrow.....
We still have:
- Impaired access to our closest markets.
- A military and intelligence structure that is integrated with a capricious ally.
- A fiscal system that can't meet demands on the state.
- A state that is overwhelmed.
Something has to give.
We still have:
- Impaired access to our closest markets.
- A military and intelligence structure that is integrated with a capricious ally.
- A fiscal system that can't meet demands on the state.
- A state that is overwhelmed.
Something has to give.
The key question now: are we going to shift from a foreign policy based on transactions and "deals" to one based on values and interests?
January 19, 2026 at 9:16 AM
The key question now: are we going to shift from a foreign policy based on transactions and "deals" to one based on values and interests?
One big gap in the Government's thinking is a "theory of power". That old Galbraithian notion of "countervailing power".
Well, @philtinline.bsky.social through @futuregovforum.bsky.social has one. Highly recommend.
www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/pow...
Well, @philtinline.bsky.social through @futuregovforum.bsky.social has one. Highly recommend.
www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/pow...
Power Failure: A new theory of power - Future Governance Forum
British politics feels stuck. In recent years, both Conservative and Labour governments have found themselves increasingly hamstrung by a web of problematic concentrations and dispersals of power, thw...
www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk
January 19, 2026 at 8:37 AM
One big gap in the Government's thinking is a "theory of power". That old Galbraithian notion of "countervailing power".
Well, @philtinline.bsky.social through @futuregovforum.bsky.social has one. Highly recommend.
www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/pow...
Well, @philtinline.bsky.social through @futuregovforum.bsky.social has one. Highly recommend.
www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/pow...
The idea the world has been free riding on the backs of poor America was the signal that US elites have taken leave of their senses.
The deal was they buy globally, savings from elsewhere fund their extravagant lifestyles. They fund a military that supports this system.
That's what they wanted.
The deal was they buy globally, savings from elsewhere fund their extravagant lifestyles. They fund a military that supports this system.
That's what they wanted.
January 19, 2026 at 8:05 AM
The idea the world has been free riding on the backs of poor America was the signal that US elites have taken leave of their senses.
The deal was they buy globally, savings from elsewhere fund their extravagant lifestyles. They fund a military that supports this system.
That's what they wanted.
The deal was they buy globally, savings from elsewhere fund their extravagant lifestyles. They fund a military that supports this system.
That's what they wanted.
It was fair for the UK and the EU to take a punt that they were dealing with a reasonable individual and administration at least on some level.
They weren't. So ratchet becomes the only rational approach.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
They weren't. So ratchet becomes the only rational approach.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Trump’s tariff shock suggests EU’s strategy of flattery and appeasement has failed
Next few weeks will show if Trump has finally pushed too far with Greenland levies, as calls grow for bloc to take tougher action
www.theguardian.com
January 18, 2026 at 6:52 PM
It was fair for the UK and the EU to take a punt that they were dealing with a reasonable individual and administration at least on some level.
They weren't. So ratchet becomes the only rational approach.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
They weren't. So ratchet becomes the only rational approach.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Strong statement this.
Surreal times. But here we are.
Surreal times. But here we are.
January 18, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Strong statement this.
Surreal times. But here we are.
Surreal times. But here we are.
Community renewal both improves quality of life and increases trust in democratic institutions.
So yes, it is an important part of the democratic as well as social fabric.
It *must* be alongside local government renewal - fiscal power - to avoid the mistakes of the big society.
So yes, it is an important part of the democratic as well as social fabric.
It *must* be alongside local government renewal - fiscal power - to avoid the mistakes of the big society.
New post just out:
"Power to the People"
Today we have a guest post from @jamestplunkett.bsky.social on how Labour can counter the "Britain is Broken" narrative by investing in civic life and giving people more control over their community.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...
"Power to the People"
Today we have a guest post from @jamestplunkett.bsky.social on how Labour can counter the "Britain is Broken" narrative by investing in civic life and giving people more control over their community.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...
Power to the People
How Labour can restore civic life and counter the "Britain is broken" narrative
open.substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Community renewal both improves quality of life and increases trust in democratic institutions.
So yes, it is an important part of the democratic as well as social fabric.
It *must* be alongside local government renewal - fiscal power - to avoid the mistakes of the big society.
So yes, it is an important part of the democratic as well as social fabric.
It *must* be alongside local government renewal - fiscal power - to avoid the mistakes of the big society.
I see a lot of back and forth about Starmer on here.
Most of the critical tone on Bluesky is just because of its nature- interested in policy, not a cheerleading place *or* a toxic boo-hiss pantomime, individualistic.
This is all fine right? Certainly compared to the alternatives.
Most of the critical tone on Bluesky is just because of its nature- interested in policy, not a cheerleading place *or* a toxic boo-hiss pantomime, individualistic.
This is all fine right? Certainly compared to the alternatives.
January 18, 2026 at 8:37 AM
I see a lot of back and forth about Starmer on here.
Most of the critical tone on Bluesky is just because of its nature- interested in policy, not a cheerleading place *or* a toxic boo-hiss pantomime, individualistic.
This is all fine right? Certainly compared to the alternatives.
Most of the critical tone on Bluesky is just because of its nature- interested in policy, not a cheerleading place *or* a toxic boo-hiss pantomime, individualistic.
This is all fine right? Certainly compared to the alternatives.
Lest we forget, Trump's national security strategy is explicit about pulling down European democracy.
Well, now's the time for Europeans to take on MAGA directly, externally and internally. Cracks are starting to appear.
By being strong, Europe can help save America from itself.
Well, now's the time for Europeans to take on MAGA directly, externally and internally. Cracks are starting to appear.
By being strong, Europe can help save America from itself.
January 18, 2026 at 8:05 AM
Lest we forget, Trump's national security strategy is explicit about pulling down European democracy.
Well, now's the time for Europeans to take on MAGA directly, externally and internally. Cracks are starting to appear.
By being strong, Europe can help save America from itself.
Well, now's the time for Europeans to take on MAGA directly, externally and internally. Cracks are starting to appear.
By being strong, Europe can help save America from itself.
Ok, Europe. Your move. Are you just going to sit there and take this nonsense on the chin?
And as for the UK's equidistance, it's in shreds.
New times.
Breaking news indeed.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1...
And as for the UK's equidistance, it's in shreds.
New times.
Breaking news indeed.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1...
Trump tariffs: US president announces plan to hit UK, Denmark and other European countries with tariffs over Greenland
The US president says the countries will be charged a
www.bbc.co.uk
January 17, 2026 at 4:56 PM
Ok, Europe. Your move. Are you just going to sit there and take this nonsense on the chin?
And as for the UK's equidistance, it's in shreds.
New times.
Breaking news indeed.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1...
And as for the UK's equidistance, it's in shreds.
New times.
Breaking news indeed.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1...
Not only is hell hole London too but four European cities in the top ten in the global power index.
Only one US city. Four Asian.
Alive and kicking.
Only one US city. Four Asian.
Alive and kicking.
January 17, 2026 at 11:20 AM
Not only is hell hole London too but four European cities in the top ten in the global power index.
Only one US city. Four Asian.
Alive and kicking.
Only one US city. Four Asian.
Alive and kicking.
The problems with Labour seeking to attack the Tories/Reform from the right on immigration, ie open borders policy are two fold:
1. It doesn't work. It ends up on ground that it inevitably has to concede.
2. It does work. So the policy has to shift to match mass deportation.
Neither is good.
1. It doesn't work. It ends up on ground that it inevitably has to concede.
2. It does work. So the policy has to shift to match mass deportation.
Neither is good.
January 16, 2026 at 10:01 AM
The problems with Labour seeking to attack the Tories/Reform from the right on immigration, ie open borders policy are two fold:
1. It doesn't work. It ends up on ground that it inevitably has to concede.
2. It does work. So the policy has to shift to match mass deportation.
Neither is good.
1. It doesn't work. It ends up on ground that it inevitably has to concede.
2. It does work. So the policy has to shift to match mass deportation.
Neither is good.
Very interesting piece. Subtly distinguishes fascism and narcissism.
If you are in Minneapolis or Greenland right now not sure the categorical difference matters much.
From a global POV- if they can, the fascist and the narcissist will both take what they can.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
If you are in Minneapolis or Greenland right now not sure the categorical difference matters much.
From a global POV- if they can, the fascist and the narcissist will both take what they can.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Has a Nazi theorist’s vision of a world divided into 'great spaces' found a new advocate in Trump? | Brendan Simms
Carl Schmitt wanted empires that dominated the small countries in their orbits. But the US president’s chaotic actions are not that strategic, says Brendan Simms, director of the Centre for Geopolitic...
www.theguardian.com
January 16, 2026 at 7:28 AM
Very interesting piece. Subtly distinguishes fascism and narcissism.
If you are in Minneapolis or Greenland right now not sure the categorical difference matters much.
From a global POV- if they can, the fascist and the narcissist will both take what they can.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
If you are in Minneapolis or Greenland right now not sure the categorical difference matters much.
From a global POV- if they can, the fascist and the narcissist will both take what they can.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Surprised there aren't more questions about the Nobel Prize Committee. This was a poor pick- apparent in her immediate response.
Basically, they've allowed the prize to become a currency of conquest.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Basically, they've allowed the prize to become a currency of conquest.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Machado presents Trump with her Nobel award at White House meeting
Trump thanked Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, calling it
www.bbc.co.uk
January 16, 2026 at 6:54 AM
Surprised there aren't more questions about the Nobel Prize Committee. This was a poor pick- apparent in her immediate response.
Basically, they've allowed the prize to become a currency of conquest.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Basically, they've allowed the prize to become a currency of conquest.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Jenrick is the JD Vance of British politics. But without the mildly interesting backstory.
January 15, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Jenrick is the JD Vance of British politics. But without the mildly interesting backstory.
London will face specific job losses from an AI wave but its economy will grow to absorb a lot of the displacement - especially with policy support.
The bigger risks are that the gains are concentrated in a super elite and it becomes more socially disconnected.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
The bigger risks are that the gains are concentrated in a super elite and it becomes more socially disconnected.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Sadiq Khan to urge ministers to act over ‘colossal’ impact of AI on London jobs
In Mansion House speech, mayor will talk of opportunities technology offers but highlight mass unemployment risk
www.theguardian.com
January 15, 2026 at 1:33 PM
London will face specific job losses from an AI wave but its economy will grow to absorb a lot of the displacement - especially with policy support.
The bigger risks are that the gains are concentrated in a super elite and it becomes more socially disconnected.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
The bigger risks are that the gains are concentrated in a super elite and it becomes more socially disconnected.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Not convinced my novel choice is right for the moment: it is about a fascist takeover of Ireland. From doom scrolling to doom reading and back.
January 14, 2026 at 10:10 PM
Not convinced my novel choice is right for the moment: it is about a fascist takeover of Ireland. From doom scrolling to doom reading and back.
We're in a real pickle.
There aren't any European flags on this.....
There aren't any European flags on this.....
January 14, 2026 at 7:15 PM
We're in a real pickle.
There aren't any European flags on this.....
There aren't any European flags on this.....
I work in a public service adjacent space (adult skills). You've no idea just how much energy is soaked up by central levers being pulled. Basically most innovation energy in a system is devoted to responding to central lever pulling.
A big problem is the levers are too connected rather than not...
A big problem is the levers are too connected rather than not...
January 13, 2026 at 9:15 AM
I work in a public service adjacent space (adult skills). You've no idea just how much energy is soaked up by central levers being pulled. Basically most innovation energy in a system is devoted to responding to central lever pulling.
A big problem is the levers are too connected rather than not...
A big problem is the levers are too connected rather than not...
I have no doubt that under-16s will be banned from social media before the next election.
For all its many faults, It's a bad idea to ban things that you have simply failed to regulate or educate about properly.
But we will nonetheless.
For all its many faults, It's a bad idea to ban things that you have simply failed to regulate or educate about properly.
But we will nonetheless.
January 13, 2026 at 8:28 AM
I have no doubt that under-16s will be banned from social media before the next election.
For all its many faults, It's a bad idea to ban things that you have simply failed to regulate or educate about properly.
But we will nonetheless.
For all its many faults, It's a bad idea to ban things that you have simply failed to regulate or educate about properly.
But we will nonetheless.
This spectacularly misses the point.
It's not just about what kids might see. It's what their image might be used for. The issue is CSAM not a social media watershed.
It's not just about what kids might see. It's what their image might be used for. The issue is CSAM not a social media watershed.
January 12, 2026 at 6:28 PM
This spectacularly misses the point.
It's not just about what kids might see. It's what their image might be used for. The issue is CSAM not a social media watershed.
It's not just about what kids might see. It's what their image might be used for. The issue is CSAM not a social media watershed.
What is the purpose of the centre-right is one of the most important questions in UK and European politics at the moment?
Parties such as the UK Conservatives and CDU in Germany are very important from a liberal democratic point of view. If they disintegrate what firewall is there?
Parties such as the UK Conservatives and CDU in Germany are very important from a liberal democratic point of view. If they disintegrate what firewall is there?
January 12, 2026 at 1:00 PM
What is the purpose of the centre-right is one of the most important questions in UK and European politics at the moment?
Parties such as the UK Conservatives and CDU in Germany are very important from a liberal democratic point of view. If they disintegrate what firewall is there?
Parties such as the UK Conservatives and CDU in Germany are very important from a liberal democratic point of view. If they disintegrate what firewall is there?