Anton Spisak
@antonspisak.bsky.social
Political economist. Associate Fellow, Centre for European Reform. Past lives elsewhere. Likes long runs, good coffee and the Paris Review.
A reminder, before the budget, that the UK has been facing the most severe trade stagnation in a generation. One big reason why the British economy hasn’t been growing.
November 25, 2025 at 7:51 PM
A reminder, before the budget, that the UK has been facing the most severe trade stagnation in a generation. One big reason why the British economy hasn’t been growing.
Reposted by Anton Spisak
This research is important because it corroborates what we already knew - that when comparing the UK to peer economies, it has had a big slowdown since 2016. It does so with firm-level data and finds more EU-connected firms have sizeable shortfalls in productivity and investment compared to less.
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
bloom.bg
November 21, 2025 at 11:14 AM
This research is important because it corroborates what we already knew - that when comparing the UK to peer economies, it has had a big slowdown since 2016. It does so with firm-level data and finds more EU-connected firms have sizeable shortfalls in productivity and investment compared to less.
This shows how insane the immigration debate is in the UK.
There isn’t even a reliable official source of the numbers of migrants, since the Home Office isn’t capable of recording the numbers of people crossing the UK border. This leaves the national statistical agency having to estimate numbers.
There isn’t even a reliable official source of the numbers of migrants, since the Home Office isn’t capable of recording the numbers of people crossing the UK border. This leaves the national statistical agency having to estimate numbers.
ONS is so bad. (This is about specifically British nationals.) www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
November 18, 2025 at 11:54 AM
This shows how insane the immigration debate is in the UK.
There isn’t even a reliable official source of the numbers of migrants, since the Home Office isn’t capable of recording the numbers of people crossing the UK border. This leaves the national statistical agency having to estimate numbers.
There isn’t even a reliable official source of the numbers of migrants, since the Home Office isn’t capable of recording the numbers of people crossing the UK border. This leaves the national statistical agency having to estimate numbers.
Today was a very important day: the 36th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution. Also a day when over 50,000 people went into the streets in Bratislava, despite a terrible rain storm, in protest of Fico’s government in Slovakia. Here’s why it really mattered. /1
November 18, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Today was a very important day: the 36th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution. Also a day when over 50,000 people went into the streets in Bratislava, despite a terrible rain storm, in protest of Fico’s government in Slovakia. Here’s why it really mattered. /1
The Swiss publisher Ringier, a staunch defender of the rule of law, sells its stake of the most widely read Hungarian newspaper to a pro-Orbán media group, just before the most consequential election in Hungary’s recent history. Values first – just not today.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Shock as Orbán allies take ownership of Hungary’s most-read newspaper
Blikk, a tabloid with about 3 million online monthly readers, bought by pro-Orbán media group Indamedia
www.theguardian.com
November 5, 2025 at 1:10 PM
The Swiss publisher Ringier, a staunch defender of the rule of law, sells its stake of the most widely read Hungarian newspaper to a pro-Orbán media group, just before the most consequential election in Hungary’s recent history. Values first – just not today.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Reposted by Anton Spisak
When people learn with ChatGPT instead of following their own searches, they end up knowing less, caring less, and producing worse advice, even when the facts are the same.
Friction is an essential ingredient for learning! Convenience makes us shallow.
academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Friction is an essential ingredient for learning! Convenience makes us shallow.
academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Experimental evidence of the effects of large language models versus web search on depth of learning
Abstract. The effects of using large language models (LLMs) versus traditional web search on depth of learning are explored. A theory is proposed that when
academic.oup.com
October 28, 2025 at 3:14 PM
When people learn with ChatGPT instead of following their own searches, they end up knowing less, caring less, and producing worse advice, even when the facts are the same.
Friction is an essential ingredient for learning! Convenience makes us shallow.
academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Friction is an essential ingredient for learning! Convenience makes us shallow.
academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Congratulations to my dear friend Gregor Valentovic on his debut film Nepela, out in cinemas this week. A powerful story of a Czechoslovak figure skater and the 1972 Olympic champion whose personal fight for freedom collided with the brutal wall of totalitarianism. And a cinematic masterpiece.
October 28, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Congratulations to my dear friend Gregor Valentovic on his debut film Nepela, out in cinemas this week. A powerful story of a Czechoslovak figure skater and the 1972 Olympic champion whose personal fight for freedom collided with the brutal wall of totalitarianism. And a cinematic masterpiece.
Weak goods exports have weighed on the UK’s post-pandemic growth more than any other factor – including weak investment.
And yet, this fact is almost entirely absent from Britain’s political debate about growth.
And yet, this fact is almost entirely absent from Britain’s political debate about growth.
@antonspisak.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, a think-tank, observes that, after Brexit took effect at the end of 2020, Britain’s goods exports have grown less than those of any other economy in the G7 club of rich countries.
A dangerous post-Brexit world
Britain risks being an unwitting victim of EU-US trade wars
buff.ly
October 10, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Weak goods exports have weighed on the UK’s post-pandemic growth more than any other factor – including weak investment.
And yet, this fact is almost entirely absent from Britain’s political debate about growth.
And yet, this fact is almost entirely absent from Britain’s political debate about growth.
Reposted by Anton Spisak
@antonspisak.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, a think-tank, observes that, after Brexit took effect at the end of 2020, Britain’s goods exports have grown less than those of any other economy in the G7 club of rich countries.
A dangerous post-Brexit world
Britain risks being an unwitting victim of EU-US trade wars
buff.ly
October 10, 2025 at 8:00 AM
@antonspisak.bsky.social of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, a think-tank, observes that, after Brexit took effect at the end of 2020, Britain’s goods exports have grown less than those of any other economy in the G7 club of rich countries.
The Babis-Orban-Fico axis has been reborn within the EU. There we go again.
October 4, 2025 at 9:35 PM
The Babis-Orban-Fico axis has been reborn within the EU. There we go again.
Another nail in the coffin of Slovakia’s democracy. Parliament has today approved a constitutional amendment that enshrines recognition of “only two sexes” (male and female), restricts adoption to married heterosexual couples, and ends the primacy of EU law over “ethical and cultural matters”. 1/4
September 26, 2025 at 7:54 PM
Another nail in the coffin of Slovakia’s democracy. Parliament has today approved a constitutional amendment that enshrines recognition of “only two sexes” (male and female), restricts adoption to married heterosexual couples, and ends the primacy of EU law over “ethical and cultural matters”. 1/4
This is a serious proposal by Merz – and one that could help move the debate on frozen Russian assets forward.
September 25, 2025 at 6:41 PM
This is a serious proposal by Merz – and one that could help move the debate on frozen Russian assets forward.
The last words of Czechoslovakia’s founder TG Masaryk were sealed for 90 years, but worth the wait:
“If people are uneducated and foolish, there is not much that can be done. People are glad to be foolish. Do not make it easy for them, and argue with them.”
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
“If people are uneducated and foolish, there is not much that can be done. People are glad to be foolish. Do not make it easy for them, and argue with them.”
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
Mysterious envelope to reveal secrets of Czechoslovakia’s founding father
The sealed document was entrusted to the National Archive in 2005
www.independent.co.uk
September 20, 2025 at 8:04 AM
The last words of Czechoslovakia’s founder TG Masaryk were sealed for 90 years, but worth the wait:
“If people are uneducated and foolish, there is not much that can be done. People are glad to be foolish. Do not make it easy for them, and argue with them.”
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
“If people are uneducated and foolish, there is not much that can be done. People are glad to be foolish. Do not make it easy for them, and argue with them.”
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...
An idea I’m confident all of Europe could unite behind: a European Solidarity Fund for the Redevelopment of Schuman.
September 18, 2025 at 8:18 AM
An idea I’m confident all of Europe could unite behind: a European Solidarity Fund for the Redevelopment of Schuman.
The world feels a bit much right now, so here’s Faustus the cat stretching out in the summer sun. Good week to all.
September 14, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The world feels a bit much right now, so here’s Faustus the cat stretching out in the summer sun. Good week to all.
When European policymakers talk about ‘economic security’, they’re really talking about China.
Chart from our new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social, in which we mapped EU and UK trade vulnerabilities (and offered some ideas why the two should collaborate), published earlier this week.
Chart from our new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social, in which we mapped EU and UK trade vulnerabilities (and offered some ideas why the two should collaborate), published earlier this week.
September 12, 2025 at 10:58 AM
When European policymakers talk about ‘economic security’, they’re really talking about China.
Chart from our new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social, in which we mapped EU and UK trade vulnerabilities (and offered some ideas why the two should collaborate), published earlier this week.
Chart from our new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social, in which we mapped EU and UK trade vulnerabilities (and offered some ideas why the two should collaborate), published earlier this week.
Something reassuring about this picture: truth cannot be erased, however determined the effort.
September 10, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Something reassuring about this picture: truth cannot be erased, however determined the effort.
Economic security is the agenda du jour in Brussels. Yet it is conspicuously absent from the EU-UK 'reset'.
In a new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social for @bertelsmannst.bsky.social, we argue this is a mistake and set out what can be done about it.
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/publicati...
In a new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social for @bertelsmannst.bsky.social, we argue this is a mistake and set out what can be done about it.
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/publicati...
A Missing Pillar: Economic Security in the EU-UK Partnership
Economic security has risen to the top of Europe’s strategic agenda, and the EU has intensified collaboration with key allies. While structural and political factors have so far prevented deeper engag...
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de
September 10, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Economic security is the agenda du jour in Brussels. Yet it is conspicuously absent from the EU-UK 'reset'.
In a new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social for @bertelsmannst.bsky.social, we argue this is a mistake and set out what can be done about it.
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/publicati...
In a new paper with @jbenford-berlin.bsky.social for @bertelsmannst.bsky.social, we argue this is a mistake and set out what can be done about it.
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/publicati...
Reposted by Anton Spisak
Economic Security is central to the EU’s external strategy - see SOTEU today - but cooperation with the UK remains nascent. Political and structural reasons are behind this but @antonspisak.bsky.social and I think there are grounds for deeper cooperation: www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/our-proje...
A Missing Pillar: Economic Security in the EU-UK Partnership
Economic security has risen to the top of Europe’s strategic agenda, and the EU has intensified collaboration with key allies. While structural and political factors have so far prevented deeper engag...
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de
September 10, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Economic Security is central to the EU’s external strategy - see SOTEU today - but cooperation with the UK remains nascent. Political and structural reasons are behind this but @antonspisak.bsky.social and I think there are grounds for deeper cooperation: www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/our-proje...
Cooper to the FCDO isn’t good news for Labour’s EU reset: her hardline position on youth mobility alienated key capitals, especially Berlin, and now risks slowing progress just as substantive talks begin. Also, Lammy’s stock in Brussels has been steadily rising. A counterproductive move.
September 5, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Cooper to the FCDO isn’t good news for Labour’s EU reset: her hardline position on youth mobility alienated key capitals, especially Berlin, and now risks slowing progress just as substantive talks begin. Also, Lammy’s stock in Brussels has been steadily rising. A counterproductive move.
Not okay. Disagree with the ideas and the arguments, but vandalism isn’t the way to do so.
On where UK Bluesky does have a blind spot, I haven’t seen anything on here about the vandalism of Policy Exchange’s office (see below). This kind of stuff should be called out and criticised and I’m very happy to do so.
August 29, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Not okay. Disagree with the ideas and the arguments, but vandalism isn’t the way to do so.
Reposted by Anton Spisak
For the first time a joint cabinet meeting of the French and German governments were today briefed by economists from each country - they covered 5 points, one of which was "trade with China"
cae-eco.fr/principaux-e...
cae-eco.fr/principaux-e...
August 29, 2025 at 11:05 AM
For the first time a joint cabinet meeting of the French and German governments were today briefed by economists from each country - they covered 5 points, one of which was "trade with China"
cae-eco.fr/principaux-e...
cae-eco.fr/principaux-e...
A casual-looking wall with nothing casual about it. Where am I?
August 20, 2025 at 8:07 PM
A casual-looking wall with nothing casual about it. Where am I?
Ah yes, Brexit is “done”. The speed with which Britain forgot its most vulnerable place, once political urgency passed, is remarkable.
August 18, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Ah yes, Brexit is “done”. The speed with which Britain forgot its most vulnerable place, once political urgency passed, is remarkable.
UK Ministry of Defence intelligence report this morning:
“It would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 per cent of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory, [which] would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed or wounded).”
“It would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 per cent of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory, [which] would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed or wounded).”
August 18, 2025 at 1:39 PM
UK Ministry of Defence intelligence report this morning:
“It would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 per cent of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory, [which] would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed or wounded).”
“It would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100 per cent of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory, [which] would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed or wounded).”