Antony Green
@antonygreenelec.bsky.social
Australian Election Analyst
I'm back to looking at the 2025 Federal election result, this time explaining the Victorian results. At the start of the campaign Victoria was where Labor could lose the election, but in the end the state delivered Labor a record result. More detail here. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...
December 15, 2025 at 8:45 AM
I'm back to looking at the 2025 Federal election result, this time explaining the Victorian results. At the start of the campaign Victoria was where Labor could lose the election, but in the end the state delivered Labor a record result. More detail here. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-hous...
If the Senate were increased to 14 Senators per state in 2028, as is rumoured, the next half-Senate election would be for 8 Senators with the quota reduced to 11.1%. That would be very tempting for One Nation.
December 8, 2025 at 9:17 PM
If the Senate were increased to 14 Senators per state in 2028, as is rumoured, the next half-Senate election would be for 8 Senators with the quota reduced to 11.1%. That would be very tempting for One Nation.
Talk of One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce taking a NSW Senate seat from the Nationals is not correct. The NSW Coalition agreement reserves Senate spot 2 for the Nationals in 2028. It would be the third Liberal seat at risk. Unless the Coalition polls under 20%.
December 8, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Talk of One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce taking a NSW Senate seat from the Nationals is not correct. The NSW Coalition agreement reserves Senate spot 2 for the Nationals in 2028. It would be the third Liberal seat at risk. Unless the Coalition polls under 20%.
I had a few problems getting my SA Election blog post to re-publish but finally sorted it out. SA Electoral pendulum with colour coded seat maps is now working at new address antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pe...
December 8, 2025 at 2:58 AM
I had a few problems getting my SA Election blog post to re-publish but finally sorted it out. SA Electoral pendulum with colour coded seat maps is now working at new address antonygreen.com.au/electoral-pe...
I've updated my South Australian election pendulum article with colour coded maps of the electorates. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/
December 7, 2025 at 10:48 PM
I've updated my South Australian election pendulum article with colour coded maps of the electorates. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/
A post on the SA Liberal Leadership change today, including an electoral pendulum for the state election in March 2026, and some notes on retiring members and the more complex contests at the election. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/
December 5, 2025 at 4:19 AM
A post on the SA Liberal Leadership change today, including an electoral pendulum for the state election in March 2026, and some notes on retiring members and the more complex contests at the election. antonygreen.com.au/9012-2/
Comments on the weekend's Hinchinbrook by-election. Strong support for Premier Crisafulli in his home town of Ingham, a major setback for Katter's Australian Party, a strong vote for One Nation, and why did Labor bother? antonygreen.com.au/comments-on-... #qldpol
December 1, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Comments on the weekend's Hinchinbrook by-election. Strong support for Premier Crisafulli in his home town of Ingham, a major setback for Katter's Australian Party, a strong vote for One Nation, and why did Labor bother? antonygreen.com.au/comments-on-... #qldpol
An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor. antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr... #auspol
November 17, 2025 at 1:33 AM
An analysis of the changing pattern between 2010 and 2025 of Greens support across electoral divisions, and the continuing increase in the flows of Green preferences to Labor. antonygreen.com.au/comparing-gr... #auspol
The NSW Senate election saw weird distortions in the count when Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) passed quota. Suddenly 3,145 Coalition votes in her total became 7,549 in her surplus. Here's why plus an explainer on why Senate counting formulas need to change.
antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...
antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...
Antony Green's Election Blog
Musings on Elections and Politics
antonygreen.com.au
November 13, 2025 at 5:07 AM
The NSW Senate election saw weird distortions in the count when Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) passed quota. Suddenly 3,145 Coalition votes in her total became 7,549 in her surplus. Here's why plus an explainer on why Senate counting formulas need to change.
antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...
antonygreen.com.au/time-to-chan...
In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
November 6, 2025 at 5:49 AM
In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
November 3, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
November 3, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
October 31, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward. antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...
NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election
The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama. Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalitio…
antonygreen.com.au
August 8, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward. antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...
TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
July 29, 2025 at 10:51 PM
TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...
FED2025 – Four Graphs on Labor’s Landslide Victory
The ‘L’ word hasn’t featured much in post-election coverage, but it’s time to be clear about the result. The re-election of the Albanese government has been a landslide vict…
antonygreen.com.au
May 30, 2025 at 7:31 AM
Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...
Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats. antonygreen.com.au/2025-western... #wavotes
2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results
This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised. Originally the post just covered changes in membe…
antonygreen.com.au
March 22, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats. antonygreen.com.au/2025-western... #wavotes
A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
February 14, 2025 at 4:02 AM
A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
I've updated my #prahran and #werribee commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee. #springst www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Commentary - Prahran/Werribee by-election
Werribee by-election 2025 Commentary
www.abc.net.au
February 8, 2025 at 11:41 PM
I've updated my #prahran and #werribee commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee. #springst www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#werribee - 0.6% of 2CP counted - ALP Predicted 2CP=44.6% -16.3% swing - results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst Preference count on that one small booth but there's the number.
Results - Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025 Results
shorturl.at
February 8, 2025 at 8:35 AM
#werribee - 0.6% of 2CP counted - ALP Predicted 2CP=44.6% -16.3% swing - results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst Preference count on that one small booth but there's the number.
#werribee 0.6% counted
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst
Results - Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025 Results
shorturl.at
February 8, 2025 at 8:16 AM
#werribee 0.6% counted
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst
Newspoll has WA Labor on 56% 2-party preferred, a swing of 14% against Labor. To put that in context, it cancels out the 14% swing to Labor in 2021. Labor's two-party vote in 2017 was 55.5% when Labor recorded its biggest victory in WA history. That was until 2021. #wapol
February 6, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Newspoll has WA Labor on 56% 2-party preferred, a swing of 14% against Labor. To put that in context, it cancels out the 14% swing to Labor in 2021. Labor's two-party vote in 2017 was 55.5% when Labor recorded its biggest victory in WA history. That was until 2021. #wapol
The WA election race is underway today with the issue of writs. So far 253 candidates lower house candidates have been named. Find all the names plus election background and profiles of every seat at my WA Election guide. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #wavotes
Election Preview
Western Australia Election Preview 2025
www.abc.net.au
February 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM
The WA election race is underway today with the issue of writs. So far 253 candidates lower house candidates have been named. Find all the names plus election background and profiles of every seat at my WA Election guide. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #wavotes
12 candidates for Werribee by-election. Bad ballot draw for Labor in position 11, Liberal candidate drew position 2. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025
www.abc.net.au
January 24, 2025 at 3:01 AM
12 candidates for Werribee by-election. Bad ballot draw for Labor in position 11, Liberal candidate drew position 2. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...