Antony Green
@antonygreenelec.bsky.social
Australian Election Analyst
In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
November 6, 2025 at 5:49 AM
In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
November 3, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
November 3, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
October 31, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward. antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...
NSW State District of Kiama set for By-election
The resignation of former Independent MP Gareth Ward has set the stage for a by-election in his south coast seat of Kiama. Ward has first elected as Liberal member for Kiama in 2011 at the Coalitio…
antonygreen.com.au
August 8, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Background on the looming NSW Kiama state by-election following the resignation this morning of convicted MP Gareth Ward. antonygreen.com.au/nsw-state-di...
TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
July 29, 2025 at 10:51 PM
TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...
FED2025 – Four Graphs on Labor’s Landslide Victory
The ‘L’ word hasn’t featured much in post-election coverage, but it’s time to be clear about the result. The re-election of the Albanese government has been a landslide vict…
antonygreen.com.au
May 30, 2025 at 7:31 AM
Four graphs that help explain Labor's landslide victory as well as the continuing decline in major party support. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-four...
Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats. antonygreen.com.au/2025-western... #wavotes
2025 Western Australia Election – Lower House Results
This post will update over the next two weeks as counting for the 2025 Western Australian Legislative Assembly (lower house) election is finalised. Originally the post just covered changes in membe…
antonygreen.com.au
March 22, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Some initial analysis of the 2025 WA election comparing the results by party with when Labor was elected to office in 2017. The result was worse for the Liberal Party in votes, and considerably worse in terms of seats. antonygreen.com.au/2025-western... #wavotes
A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
February 14, 2025 at 4:02 AM
A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
I've updated my #prahran and #werribee commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee. #springst www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Commentary - Prahran/Werribee by-election
Werribee by-election 2025 Commentary
www.abc.net.au
February 8, 2025 at 11:41 PM
I've updated my #prahran and #werribee commentary to look at how the outstanding postal votes might affect the result. In short they will confirm the Liberal victory in Prahran and favour Labor retaining its narrow lead in Werribee. #springst www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
#werribee - 0.6% of 2CP counted - ALP Predicted 2CP=44.6% -16.3% swing - results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst Preference count on that one small booth but there's the number.
Results - Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025 Results
shorturl.at
February 8, 2025 at 8:35 AM
#werribee - 0.6% of 2CP counted - ALP Predicted 2CP=44.6% -16.3% swing - results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst Preference count on that one small booth but there's the number.
#werribee 0.6% counted
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst
Results - Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025 Results
shorturl.at
February 8, 2025 at 8:16 AM
#werribee 0.6% counted
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst
PartyCode, First pref %, (change in %)
ALP 20.1 (-25.3)
LIB 39.8 (+14.5)
GRN 7.5 (+0.7)
IND 9.2 (+3.3)
OTH 23.5 (+6.8)
Full results at shorturl.at/EFSjz #springst
Newspoll has WA Labor on 56% 2-party preferred, a swing of 14% against Labor. To put that in context, it cancels out the 14% swing to Labor in 2021. Labor's two-party vote in 2017 was 55.5% when Labor recorded its biggest victory in WA history. That was until 2021. #wapol
February 6, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Newspoll has WA Labor on 56% 2-party preferred, a swing of 14% against Labor. To put that in context, it cancels out the 14% swing to Labor in 2021. Labor's two-party vote in 2017 was 55.5% when Labor recorded its biggest victory in WA history. That was until 2021. #wapol
The WA election race is underway today with the issue of writs. So far 253 candidates lower house candidates have been named. Find all the names plus election background and profiles of every seat at my WA Election guide. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #wavotes
Election Preview
Western Australia Election Preview 2025
www.abc.net.au
February 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM
The WA election race is underway today with the issue of writs. So far 253 candidates lower house candidates have been named. Find all the names plus election background and profiles of every seat at my WA Election guide. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #wavotes
12 candidates for Werribee by-election. Bad ballot draw for Labor in position 11, Liberal candidate drew position 2. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Werribee by-election 2025
Werribee by-election 2025
www.abc.net.au
January 24, 2025 at 3:01 AM
12 candidates for Werribee by-election. Bad ballot draw for Labor in position 11, Liberal candidate drew position 2. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Big surge in 2017 and 2021, largely due to preference deals by group voting tickets. The tickets have been abolished in 2025 with the move to state-wide election of the Legislative Council so there will be a much more proportional result. So far 218 Assembly and 73 Council candidates.
January 23, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Big surge in 2017 and 2021, largely due to preference deals by group voting tickets. The tickets have been abolished in 2025 with the move to state-wide election of the Legislative Council so there will be a much more proportional result. So far 218 Assembly and 73 Council candidates.
A tenth candidate joins the field for the Werribee by-election with the nomination of Aidan McLindon, newly elected Mayor of distant Whittlesea. McLindon's peripatetic party history adds colour to the field. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
January 23, 2025 at 6:29 AM
A tenth candidate joins the field for the Werribee by-election with the nomination of Aidan McLindon, newly elected Mayor of distant Whittlesea. McLindon's peripatetic party history adds colour to the field. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Seven of the 11 how-to-votes are now registered for the Prahran by-election. Ex-Labor MP Tony Lupton running as an Independent and swapping preferences with the Liberal candidate could re-shuffle the traditional preference flows. All the detail here www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst
January 23, 2025 at 6:15 AM
Seven of the 11 how-to-votes are now registered for the Prahran by-election. Ex-Labor MP Tony Lupton running as an Independent and swapping preferences with the Liberal candidate could re-shuffle the traditional preference flows. All the detail here www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst
Green prospects of winning the Prahran by-election just got more complicated with the Liberal Party and Independent Tony Lupton (ex-Labor MP) swapping preference recommendations. There is no Labor candidate. Background on the by-election here www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
January 22, 2025 at 3:19 AM
Green prospects of winning the Prahran by-election just got more complicated with the Liberal Party and Independent Tony Lupton (ex-Labor MP) swapping preference recommendations. There is no Labor candidate. Background on the by-election here www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
11 candidates nominated for the Prahran by-election to be held on 8 February. Background here with links to Werribee by-election where nominations are still open. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst
January 17, 2025 at 5:13 AM
11 candidates nominated for the Prahran by-election to be held on 8 February. Background here with links to Werribee by-election where nominations are still open. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst
My #WAVotes2025 election guide has just been launched. The usual features, a preview, full profiles of every seat, indexes by candidate, electorate name and margin. Legislative Council to be added in a day or two. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
January 15, 2025 at 5:30 AM
My #WAVotes2025 election guide has just been launched. The usual features, a preview, full profiles of every seat, indexes by candidate, electorate name and margin. Legislative Council to be added in a day or two. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Started the year virtuously. Train to Parramatta, then rode up the new tram cycle way to Carlingford, bike selfie at my old school then rode back to Newtown. 46km all up. Tramway is very impressive.
December 31, 2024 at 11:46 PM
Started the year virtuously. Train to Parramatta, then rode up the new tram cycle way to Carlingford, bike selfie at my old school then rode back to Newtown. 46km all up. Tramway is very impressive.
A few notes of caution on the AEC's estimated new margins for redistributed seats, especially where Independents are involved. In not making assumptions on new boundary Independent support, some of its estimates look odd. antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plet... #auspol
FED25 – A Plethora of Estimated Margins and Problems with the AEC Version
In a pre-Christmas treat for election nerds, the Australian Electoral Commission is about to publish its estimated seat margins for next year’s Federal election. The 2025 Federal election will be f…
antonygreen.com.au
December 19, 2024 at 9:36 PM
A few notes of caution on the AEC's estimated new margins for redistributed seats, especially where Independents are involved. In not making assumptions on new boundary Independent support, some of its estimates look odd. antonygreen.com.au/fed25-a-plet... #auspol
2024 NT Election saw a record low turnout at 68.5%. Despite a record 153,248 electors on the roll, an increase of 8.6% or 12,123 since 2020, there were fewer votes cast in 2024, down 932 to 104,901. Results summary here antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analy...
NT2024 – Analysis of the Northern Territory Election
Eight years and two terms after Labor defeated the Giles government and reduced the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party to just two seats, the tables were turned on 24 August this year. The La…
antonygreen.com.au
December 17, 2024 at 8:47 PM
2024 NT Election saw a record low turnout at 68.5%. Despite a record 153,248 electors on the roll, an increase of 8.6% or 12,123 since 2020, there were fewer votes cast in 2024, down 932 to 104,901. Results summary here antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analy...