Antony Green
@antonygreenelec.bsky.social
Australian Election Analyst
In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
November 6, 2025 at 5:49 AM
In 2025 Labor's vote was higher in the Senate than the House. In 14 Coalition v Independent seats, Labor had 250,000 more Senate votes, but just 31,000 fewer in the other 136 seats. It all points to deliberate Labor strategic voting to elect Independents. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-evid...
Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
November 3, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Delivering on an election promise by handing over my 2008-2025 election night tie to the Museum of Australian Democracy, Old Parliament House, Canberra. When I paid $20 for it in 2008, never thought it would end up in a museum.
Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
November 3, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
October 31, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Background on One Nation, its spectacular initial rise and its re-emergence in the last decade. Past surges have spelled bad news for the Coalition. And see how Coalition preference flows to One Nation changed in 2025. antonygreen.com.au/background-o...
TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
July 29, 2025 at 10:51 PM
TAS2025 summary of where Bass stands at the start today's counting. More details at antonygreen.com.au/tas2025-bass...
A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
February 14, 2025 at 4:02 AM
A summary of the candidates and parties that will contest the 2025 election. Summary of numbers by party for both houses. Thankfully the state-wide Legislative Council ballot paper is manageable with 148 candidates and 13 groups. antonygreen.com.au/wa-2025-summ...
Big surge in 2017 and 2021, largely due to preference deals by group voting tickets. The tickets have been abolished in 2025 with the move to state-wide election of the Legislative Council so there will be a much more proportional result. So far 218 Assembly and 73 Council candidates.
January 23, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Big surge in 2017 and 2021, largely due to preference deals by group voting tickets. The tickets have been abolished in 2025 with the move to state-wide election of the Legislative Council so there will be a much more proportional result. So far 218 Assembly and 73 Council candidates.
A tenth candidate joins the field for the Werribee by-election with the nomination of Aidan McLindon, newly elected Mayor of distant Whittlesea. McLindon's peripatetic party history adds colour to the field. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
January 23, 2025 at 6:29 AM
A tenth candidate joins the field for the Werribee by-election with the nomination of Aidan McLindon, newly elected Mayor of distant Whittlesea. McLindon's peripatetic party history adds colour to the field. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Seven of the 11 how-to-votes are now registered for the Prahran by-election. Ex-Labor MP Tony Lupton running as an Independent and swapping preferences with the Liberal candidate could re-shuffle the traditional preference flows. All the detail here www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst
January 23, 2025 at 6:15 AM
Seven of the 11 how-to-votes are now registered for the Prahran by-election. Ex-Labor MP Tony Lupton running as an Independent and swapping preferences with the Liberal candidate could re-shuffle the traditional preference flows. All the detail here www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst
Green prospects of winning the Prahran by-election just got more complicated with the Liberal Party and Independent Tony Lupton (ex-Labor MP) swapping preference recommendations. There is no Labor candidate. Background on the by-election here www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
January 22, 2025 at 3:19 AM
Green prospects of winning the Prahran by-election just got more complicated with the Liberal Party and Independent Tony Lupton (ex-Labor MP) swapping preference recommendations. There is no Labor candidate. Background on the by-election here www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
11 candidates nominated for the Prahran by-election to be held on 8 February. Background here with links to Werribee by-election where nominations are still open. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst
January 17, 2025 at 5:13 AM
11 candidates nominated for the Prahran by-election to be held on 8 February. Background here with links to Werribee by-election where nominations are still open. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #springst
My #WAVotes2025 election guide has just been launched. The usual features, a preview, full profiles of every seat, indexes by candidate, electorate name and margin. Legislative Council to be added in a day or two. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
January 15, 2025 at 5:30 AM
My #WAVotes2025 election guide has just been launched. The usual features, a preview, full profiles of every seat, indexes by candidate, electorate name and margin. Legislative Council to be added in a day or two. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Started the year virtuously. Train to Parramatta, then rode up the new tram cycle way to Carlingford, bike selfie at my old school then rode back to Newtown. 46km all up. Tramway is very impressive.
December 31, 2024 at 11:46 PM
Started the year virtuously. Train to Parramatta, then rode up the new tram cycle way to Carlingford, bike selfie at my old school then rode back to Newtown. 46km all up. Tramway is very impressive.
A statistical wrap of the 2024 Northern Territory election. A landslide victory for the CLP with Labor winning no seats in greater Darwin. But a record low turnout at 68.5%, fewer votes taken in 2024 despite record enrolment. #ntvotes #auspol antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analy...
December 17, 2024 at 11:33 AM
A statistical wrap of the 2024 Northern Territory election. A landslide victory for the CLP with Labor winning no seats in greater Darwin. But a record low turnout at 68.5%, fewer votes taken in 2024 despite record enrolment. #ntvotes #auspol antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-analy...
Will Australia have its first national February election? And what about the WA Election Date? All the details here. antonygreen.com.au/will-austral... #auspol
December 13, 2024 at 2:27 AM
Will Australia have its first national February election? And what about the WA Election Date? All the details here. antonygreen.com.au/will-austral... #auspol
Black by-election update. Further counting of Early votes has favoured Labor increasing the Labor 2-party vote to 60.8%, swing 13.8%. Postal counting tomorrow likely to eat into the Labor lead. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #saparli
November 19, 2024 at 8:00 AM
Black by-election update. Further counting of Early votes has favoured Labor increasing the Labor 2-party vote to 60.8%, swing 13.8%. Postal counting tomorrow likely to eat into the Labor lead. www.abc.net.au/news/electio... #saparli
#black 1 of 9 counting centres reported
PartyCode, First pref %, (matched PP change in %)
ALP 40.6 (+6.0)
LIB 35.0 (-16.4)
GRN 18.9 (+4.9)
AFP 5.5 (+5.5)
Full results at tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue #saparli
PartyCode, First pref %, (matched PP change in %)
ALP 40.6 (+6.0)
LIB 35.0 (-16.4)
GRN 18.9 (+4.9)
AFP 5.5 (+5.5)
Full results at tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue #saparli
November 16, 2024 at 8:29 AM
#black 1 of 9 counting centres reported
PartyCode, First pref %, (matched PP change in %)
ALP 40.6 (+6.0)
LIB 35.0 (-16.4)
GRN 18.9 (+4.9)
AFP 5.5 (+5.5)
Full results at tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue #saparli
PartyCode, First pref %, (matched PP change in %)
ALP 40.6 (+6.0)
LIB 35.0 (-16.4)
GRN 18.9 (+4.9)
AFP 5.5 (+5.5)
Full results at tinyurl.com/3ajhr2ue #saparli
Some initial analysis of the Queensland election result, including a document setting out the changes by region and two-party preferred swings by electorate. antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-init...
November 15, 2024 at 5:08 AM
Some initial analysis of the Queensland election result, including a document setting out the changes by region and two-party preferred swings by electorate. antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-init...
Voters in the southern Adelaide seat of Black go to the polls on Saturday in the Black state by-election. Here's a link to my backgrounder on the by-election. I'll be covering the results at that Saturday night and next week. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
November 14, 2024 at 11:11 PM
Voters in the southern Adelaide seat of Black go to the polls on Saturday in the Black state by-election. Here's a link to my backgrounder on the by-election. I'll be covering the results at that Saturday night and next week. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...
Analysis of the new Federal electoral boundaries for NSW that were finalised this morning, confirming the abolition of the Independent seat of North Sydney. antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal...
September 12, 2024 at 2:03 AM
Analysis of the new Federal electoral boundaries for NSW that were finalised this morning, confirming the abolition of the Independent seat of North Sydney. antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal...