Ashwin Kumar
@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social
Director of Research & Policy @IPPR.org and Professor of Social Policy, Policy Evaluation Research Unit, @ManMetUni.bsky.social. Economist: incomes, poverty, the labour market & microsimulation modelling
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵
Rule of the market: How to lower UK borrowing costs | IPPR
To lower borrowing costs, the government must continue to rebuild credibility, carefully manage market sentiment and pursue growth-enhancing policies with
www.ippr.org
December 10, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵
The two-child limit is a cruel policy that punishes children for the so-called ‘sins’ of their parents. It never achieved its aims to reduce birth rates, increase employment or hours worked. Having children go to school too hungry to learn is no way to build a better future for the country. /7
November 26, 2025 at 4:10 PM
The two-child limit is a cruel policy that punishes children for the so-called ‘sins’ of their parents. It never achieved its aims to reduce birth rates, increase employment or hours worked. Having children go to school too hungry to learn is no way to build a better future for the country. /7
Increased headroom – contingency for meeting spending rules – will give confidence to the markets that the UK’s public finances can cope with the winds of fortune: each time Donald Trump comes up with a new tariff, the UK government won’t have to rewrite its budget. /6
November 26, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Increased headroom – contingency for meeting spending rules – will give confidence to the markets that the UK’s public finances can cope with the winds of fortune: each time Donald Trump comes up with a new tariff, the UK government won’t have to rewrite its budget. /6
Increased taxation of extremely valuable homes starts to correct a long-standing problem with Council Tax whereby the owners of very expensive homes have been underpaying. Gambling in the UK has been undertaxed whilst addictive online casinos have boomed. /5
November 26, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Increased taxation of extremely valuable homes starts to correct a long-standing problem with Council Tax whereby the owners of very expensive homes have been underpaying. Gambling in the UK has been undertaxed whilst addictive online casinos have boomed. /5
She funded these with freezing tax thresholds & tax measures targeting the well off – a sensible balance as freezing thresholds is one of the least unpopular ways of raising tax and gambling companies, those with high levels of pension contributions or very expensive homes can afford to pay more. /4
November 26, 2025 at 4:08 PM
She funded these with freezing tax thresholds & tax measures targeting the well off – a sensible balance as freezing thresholds is one of the least unpopular ways of raising tax and gambling companies, those with high levels of pension contributions or very expensive homes can afford to pay more. /4
The OBR’s downgrade of productivity expectations and previous social security policy reversals created a need for income. Rachel Reeves also chose to spend on 3 very sensible moves: more ‘headroom’ – contingency for meeting spending rules – abolishing the two-child limit, reducing energy bills. /3
November 26, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The OBR’s downgrade of productivity expectations and previous social security policy reversals created a need for income. Rachel Reeves also chose to spend on 3 very sensible moves: more ‘headroom’ – contingency for meeting spending rules – abolishing the two-child limit, reducing energy bills. /3
The doomster narratives from some economic forecasters proved wrong: the economic forecast is okay and a distinct improvement on recent years with inflation coming down and decent wage growth – although not spectacular and there is more to do to boost economic activity in years to come. /2
November 26, 2025 at 4:06 PM
The doomster narratives from some economic forecasters proved wrong: the economic forecast is okay and a distinct improvement on recent years with inflation coming down and decent wage growth – although not spectacular and there is more to do to boost economic activity in years to come. /2
Overall thought on the budget: doomster narratives turned out to be overblown and Rachel Reeves was able to raise the money for a range of welcome measures through a sensible combination of freezing income tax thresholds and taxing those who could most afford it. /1
November 26, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Overall thought on the budget: doomster narratives turned out to be overblown and Rachel Reeves was able to raise the money for a range of welcome measures through a sensible combination of freezing income tax thresholds and taxing those who could most afford it. /1
Delighted to see the abolition of the two-child limit for means-tested benefits. We should never punish children for the so-called 'sins' of their parents. Children turning up at school too hungry to learn is no way to build a country fit for the future
November 26, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Delighted to see the abolition of the two-child limit for means-tested benefits. We should never punish children for the so-called 'sins' of their parents. Children turning up at school too hungry to learn is no way to build a country fit for the future
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Useful background to the gambling tax increase here:
Delighted to see the Chancellor has taken forward the recommendation from Gordon Brown, @smfthinktank.bsky.social and @ippr.org to increase taxes on gambling. We called for this hugely profitable industry to contribute to ending the two child limit for benefits
November 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Useful background to the gambling tax increase here:
Contrary to gambling industry claims, there's little evidence this will push gamblers to the black market. Previous changes to tax regulation in 2001 and 2014 did not lead to a notable shift towards illegal gambling
November 26, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Contrary to gambling industry claims, there's little evidence this will push gamblers to the black market. Previous changes to tax regulation in 2001 and 2014 did not lead to a notable shift towards illegal gambling
Over 60 per cent of gambling profits come from just 5 per cent of users, many of whom are at high risk of serious harm, including debt, mental health issues, family breakdown and suicide
November 26, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Over 60 per cent of gambling profits come from just 5 per cent of users, many of whom are at high risk of serious harm, including debt, mental health issues, family breakdown and suicide
The UK has taxed gambling at much lower rates than other countries. E.g. online casinos are currently taxed at 21% in the UK, but are around 40% in the Netherlands and Austria and 57% in Delaware
November 26, 2025 at 12:54 PM
The UK has taxed gambling at much lower rates than other countries. E.g. online casinos are currently taxed at 21% in the UK, but are around 40% in the Netherlands and Austria and 57% in Delaware
Delighted to see the Chancellor has taken forward the recommendation from Gordon Brown, @smfthinktank.bsky.social and @ippr.org to increase taxes on gambling. We called for this hugely profitable industry to contribute to ending the two child limit for benefits
November 26, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Delighted to see the Chancellor has taken forward the recommendation from Gordon Brown, @smfthinktank.bsky.social and @ippr.org to increase taxes on gambling. We called for this hugely profitable industry to contribute to ending the two child limit for benefits
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Lots of performative doom about the UK economy going on. Here a useful reality check fromthe @economist.com. Cheer up a bit everybody!
Eg this year "the FTSE has returned 23% against the S&P’s 12%".
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Eg this year "the FTSE has returned 23% against the S&P’s 12%".
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Investors are telling Britain to cheer up a bit
The country’s economic problems are real, but its assets are doing surprisingly well
www.economist.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Lots of performative doom about the UK economy going on. Here a useful reality check fromthe @economist.com. Cheer up a bit everybody!
Eg this year "the FTSE has returned 23% against the S&P’s 12%".
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Eg this year "the FTSE has returned 23% against the S&P’s 12%".
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵
November 8, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵
The Labour Force Survey asks people whether they have done any work and, if not, whether they have looked for work and are available to start. The classification of employed, unemployed or inactive is derived from that
November 8, 2025 at 6:55 PM
The Labour Force Survey asks people whether they have done any work and, if not, whether they have looked for work and are available to start. The classification of employed, unemployed or inactive is derived from that
People out of work who are not looking for work.
More precisely, those out of work who have looked for work in the last four weeks and are available to start within two weeks are classified as 'unemployed'. Everyone else out of work is classified as 'inactive'.
More precisely, those out of work who have looked for work in the last four weeks and are available to start within two weeks are classified as 'unemployed'. Everyone else out of work is classified as 'inactive'.
November 8, 2025 at 6:53 PM
People out of work who are not looking for work.
More precisely, those out of work who have looked for work in the last four weeks and are available to start within two weeks are classified as 'unemployed'. Everyone else out of work is classified as 'inactive'.
More precisely, those out of work who have looked for work in the last four weeks and are available to start within two weeks are classified as 'unemployed'. Everyone else out of work is classified as 'inactive'.
Overall summary: when it comes to inactivity, yes of course we should do better, and many people would benefit if we do, but this is not a new crisis.
November 8, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Overall summary: when it comes to inactivity, yes of course we should do better, and many people would benefit if we do, but this is not a new crisis.
The inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 in July 2025 was 21%, lower than at any point before Nov 2018. Since 1971, there has been only one 15-month period – Dec 2018 to Feb 2020 – when inactivity was lower than today.
November 8, 2025 at 5:21 PM
The inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 in July 2025 was 21%, lower than at any point before Nov 2018. Since 1971, there has been only one 15-month period – Dec 2018 to Feb 2020 – when inactivity was lower than today.
Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵
November 8, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
*Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?*
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?
Yet again, the DWP has been publishing data in a misleading way, making it hard to know what's going on...
inequalities.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:21 AM
*Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?*
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 PM
The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy
Personally, I think the London Science Museum has always been really poor: over some years, we've taken our daughter to science museums in Copenhagen, Paris, Athens, Boston, Glasgow - and loved them - all better for narrative, explanation of the underlying science - more interesting for her (and us)
September 20, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Personally, I think the London Science Museum has always been really poor: over some years, we've taken our daughter to science museums in Copenhagen, Paris, Athens, Boston, Glasgow - and loved them - all better for narrative, explanation of the underlying science - more interesting for her (and us)
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
💰 Are tax rises inevitable?
It all depends on the OBR forecast, says @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social. A lot of the current speculation is premature, and based on the most negative possible outlook.
It all depends on the OBR forecast, says @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social. A lot of the current speculation is premature, and based on the most negative possible outlook.
September 5, 2025 at 7:44 AM
💰 Are tax rises inevitable?
It all depends on the OBR forecast, says @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social. A lot of the current speculation is premature, and based on the most negative possible outlook.
It all depends on the OBR forecast, says @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social. A lot of the current speculation is premature, and based on the most negative possible outlook.