Ashwin Kumar
@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social
Director of Research & Policy @IPPR.bsky.social and Professor of Social Policy, Policy Evaluation Research Unit, Manchester Metropolitan University. Economist: incomes, poverty, the labour market & microsimulation modelling
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵
November 8, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵
Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵
November 8, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
*Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?*
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?
Yet again, the DWP has been publishing data in a misleading way, making it hard to know what's going on...
inequalities.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:21 AM
*Have new WCA claims exploded in the last year?*
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
My new blog post on (another) mess in DWP statistics...
inequalities.substack.com/p/have-new-w...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 PM
The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
💰 Are tax rises inevitable?
It all depends on the OBR forecast, says @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social. A lot of the current speculation is premature, and based on the most negative possible outlook.
It all depends on the OBR forecast, says @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social. A lot of the current speculation is premature, and based on the most negative possible outlook.
September 5, 2025 at 7:44 AM
💰 Are tax rises inevitable?
It all depends on the OBR forecast, says @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social. A lot of the current speculation is premature, and based on the most negative possible outlook.
It all depends on the OBR forecast, says @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social. A lot of the current speculation is premature, and based on the most negative possible outlook.
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
✍️ New article: “$3 a day: A new poverty line has shifted the World Bank’s data on extreme poverty. What changed, and why?” 🧵
August 11, 2025 at 3:52 PM
✍️ New article: “$3 a day: A new poverty line has shifted the World Bank’s data on extreme poverty. What changed, and why?” 🧵
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Today's interest rate cut by the Bank of England is welcome but comes too late - the Bank has kept rates too high for too long, while essential costs remain high and households continue to struggle. Immediate government action is needed to address cost of living www.ippr.org/media-office...
August 7, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Today's interest rate cut by the Bank of England is welcome but comes too late - the Bank has kept rates too high for too long, while essential costs remain high and households continue to struggle. Immediate government action is needed to address cost of living www.ippr.org/media-office...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Quite a big deal that the BoE has revised productivity up. --> Risks have diminished as new analysis shows "potential productivity is now more explicable by [past] shocks", and Bank staff judge "some of the weakness in the headline data has been overstated".
Lowers pressure on the OBR to downgrade.
Lowers pressure on the OBR to downgrade.
August 7, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Quite a big deal that the BoE has revised productivity up. --> Risks have diminished as new analysis shows "potential productivity is now more explicable by [past] shocks", and Bank staff judge "some of the weakness in the headline data has been overstated".
Lowers pressure on the OBR to downgrade.
Lowers pressure on the OBR to downgrade.
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
It's actually quite mad how poorly taxed gambling is. Great proposal by IPPR colleagues on how to fix this, and how the proceeds could be used to tackle child poverty.
🎰 The UK’s gambling industry is booming but pays less tax than you might think.
Our new research shows that fairer gambling taxes could raise enough to scrap the two-child limit and benefit cap, lifting 500,000 children out of poverty. Find out more: www.ippr.org/articles/reforming-gambling-taxation
Our new research shows that fairer gambling taxes could raise enough to scrap the two-child limit and benefit cap, lifting 500,000 children out of poverty. Find out more: www.ippr.org/articles/reforming-gambling-taxation
August 7, 2025 at 12:09 PM
It's actually quite mad how poorly taxed gambling is. Great proposal by IPPR colleagues on how to fix this, and how the proceeds could be used to tackle child poverty.
Today's stories saying the unemployment rate has risen from 4.6 to 4.7% tell only part of the story. The same data - the Labour Force Survey - shows this rise comes from more people who were inactive starting to look for work and so being classified as unemployed, which is good news 🧵 /1
July 17, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Today's stories saying the unemployment rate has risen from 4.6 to 4.7% tell only part of the story. The same data - the Labour Force Survey - shows this rise comes from more people who were inactive starting to look for work and so being classified as unemployed, which is good news 🧵 /1
Today inflation figures mean that food costs are up 36% over the last four years. It's people on the lowest incomes who will feel this hardest as food occupies much a higher proportion of their weekly budget. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK inflation hits highest for almost a year and a half
Food prices rose more quickly while fuel fell only slightly, boosting the overall rate of inflation.
www.bbc.co.uk
July 16, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Today inflation figures mean that food costs are up 36% over the last four years. It's people on the lowest incomes who will feel this hardest as food occupies much a higher proportion of their weekly budget. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
If anyone has watched the Netflix documentary on Grenfell and is looking for further reading, I've made all my posts summarising the inquiry report free to read.
Links in the thread below (on the bad site)
x.com/PeteApps/sta...
Links in the thread below (on the bad site)
x.com/PeteApps/sta...
Peter Apps on X: "If anyone has watched the Netflix documentary on Grenfell and is looking for further reading, I've made all my posts on summarising the inquiry report free to read. Links in the thread below:" / X
If anyone has watched the Netflix documentary on Grenfell and is looking for further reading, I've made all my posts on summarising the inquiry report free to read. Links in the thread below:
x.com
June 20, 2025 at 10:57 AM
If anyone has watched the Netflix documentary on Grenfell and is looking for further reading, I've made all my posts summarising the inquiry report free to read.
Links in the thread below (on the bad site)
x.com/PeteApps/sta...
Links in the thread below (on the bad site)
x.com/PeteApps/sta...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
This is a really good and important report. Some thoughts of my own...
Been lots of debate about what might turn the dial on child poverty. But we hear far less from families in poverty. Our new briefing sets out a blueprint for a successful child poverty strategy, grounded in experiences of hardship
changingrealities.org/writings/get...
Pls read + share this 🧵
changingrealities.org/writings/get...
Pls read + share this 🧵
This autumn will see the publication of the first UK child poverty strategy in many years. It is a time-limited and vital opportunity to make real and lasting difference to the lives of the 4.5 million children currently living in poverty. In this new report, co-produced with IPPR, we set out a realistic and targeted agenda for change. Now is the time to take sustainable and effective action on child poverty, working with the everyday experiences of families who know what would make a difference to them and their lives.
changingrealities.org
June 4, 2025 at 1:34 PM
This is a really good and important report. Some thoughts of my own...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
👏 In rare, but welcome, good news from ONS, they are now using industry scanning data to measure grocery price inflation…
🛒 We should see much more accurate, reliable and granular grocery inflation numbers going forward, and about time too!
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
🛒 We should see much more accurate, reliable and granular grocery inflation numbers going forward, and about time too!
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
April 29, 2025 at 7:15 AM
👏 In rare, but welcome, good news from ONS, they are now using industry scanning data to measure grocery price inflation…
🛒 We should see much more accurate, reliable and granular grocery inflation numbers going forward, and about time too!
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
🛒 We should see much more accurate, reliable and granular grocery inflation numbers going forward, and about time too!
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
❤️🩹 | NEW REPORT: Voters want bold action on health – and don’t see it as 'nanny statism'. Our new research with Public First shows that smarter public health policy isn’t just good for the nation – it could be a vote-winner too.
www.ippr.org/articles/the...
www.ippr.org/articles/the...
April 24, 2025 at 6:36 AM
❤️🩹 | NEW REPORT: Voters want bold action on health – and don’t see it as 'nanny statism'. Our new research with Public First shows that smarter public health policy isn’t just good for the nation – it could be a vote-winner too.
www.ippr.org/articles/the...
www.ippr.org/articles/the...
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Liverpool falls silent to remember the 97 football fans who were unlawfully killed in the Hillsborough disaster 36 years ago today
April 15, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Liverpool falls silent to remember the 97 football fans who were unlawfully killed in the Hillsborough disaster 36 years ago today
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
🚨 IPPR is currently recruiting for two roles!
- Director of policy and politics
- Senior economist
Both close in one week. Find out more below 👇
www.ippr.org/jobs
- Director of policy and politics
- Senior economist
Both close in one week. Find out more below 👇
www.ippr.org/jobs
Jobs | IPPR
IPPR's reputation as the leading progressive think tank in the UK is built on the expertise and experience of our people. We value the creativity and range
www.ippr.org
April 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM
🚨 IPPR is currently recruiting for two roles!
- Director of policy and politics
- Senior economist
Both close in one week. Find out more below 👇
www.ippr.org/jobs
- Director of policy and politics
- Senior economist
Both close in one week. Find out more below 👇
www.ippr.org/jobs
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Drive-a-GMC-Yukon-round-a-Tuscan-hilltown challenge.
April 7, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Drive-a-GMC-Yukon-round-a-Tuscan-hilltown challenge.
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
The penguins will greet us as liberators.
April 7, 2025 at 11:39 AM
The penguins will greet us as liberators.
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
This is a really important point from Ashwin
Businesses can literally calculate the effects of the budget tax measures on their bottom line, but the big upsides of increased public investment are yet to come through, but businesses *will* feel those in time
Businesses can literally calculate the effects of the budget tax measures on their bottom line, but the big upsides of increased public investment are yet to come through, but businesses *will* feel those in time
Firstly premature. We are necessarily in a limbo period right now. The tax rises announced in the budget will only kick in when the new financial year starts in April, and so will the additional spending provided for by that taxation. 🧵
January 21, 2025 at 4:13 PM
This is a really important point from Ashwin
Businesses can literally calculate the effects of the budget tax measures on their bottom line, but the big upsides of increased public investment are yet to come through, but businesses *will* feel those in time
Businesses can literally calculate the effects of the budget tax measures on their bottom line, but the big upsides of increased public investment are yet to come through, but businesses *will* feel those in time
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
According to the ONS' labour force survey, and government, 'spiralling inactivity' is one of the major problems facing the UK. But, even using the LFS, the rise is mostly young people being students. For other groups, after 2020, things are up and down. 1/2
January 21, 2025 at 3:11 PM
According to the ONS' labour force survey, and government, 'spiralling inactivity' is one of the major problems facing the UK. But, even using the LFS, the rise is mostly young people being students. For other groups, after 2020, things are up and down. 1/2
See my blog on why the doomsayers on the economy are being overpessimistic and premature 🧵
🚨 | NEW BLOG: Over the past few days and weeks, there has been lots of rather histrionic commentary about the UK’s economic situation. In this blog, @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social outlines why the doomsayers are being overly pessimistic.
Assessing the economy | IPPR
The release of provisional November 2024 GDP figures shows a slight improvement on October, but still low. Yet over the past few days and weeks, there has
www.ippr.org
January 21, 2025 at 8:08 AM
See my blog on why the doomsayers on the economy are being overpessimistic and premature 🧵
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
Today's monthly GDP figures show a 0.1% increase in real GDP in November - the first positive reading in 3 months. It's encouraging but far from outstanding, and very clear that interest rates have become a drag on growth. The Bank of England must cut rates ASAP
January 16, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Today's monthly GDP figures show a 0.1% increase in real GDP in November - the first positive reading in 3 months. It's encouraging but far from outstanding, and very clear that interest rates have become a drag on growth. The Bank of England must cut rates ASAP
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
🚨 NEWS! We're thrilled to announce Harry Quilter-Pinner (@harryqp.bsky.social ) as our new executive director.
A leading figure in progressive politics, named by The Sunday Times as a key thinker influencing Labour’s economic policy, Harry will now steer us into the future.
A leading figure in progressive politics, named by The Sunday Times as a key thinker influencing Labour’s economic policy, Harry will now steer us into the future.
January 15, 2025 at 7:02 AM
🚨 NEWS! We're thrilled to announce Harry Quilter-Pinner (@harryqp.bsky.social ) as our new executive director.
A leading figure in progressive politics, named by The Sunday Times as a key thinker influencing Labour’s economic policy, Harry will now steer us into the future.
A leading figure in progressive politics, named by The Sunday Times as a key thinker influencing Labour’s economic policy, Harry will now steer us into the future.
Reposted by Ashwin Kumar
It's good news that inflation is coming down. But with high interest rates and the looming threat of Trump’s tariffs, economic challenges remain.
@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social on TalkTV 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYI3...
@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social on TalkTV 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYI3...
Professor Ashwin Kumar on TalkTV discussing inflation
YouTube video by Institute for Public Policy Research
www.youtube.com
January 15, 2025 at 8:27 AM
It's good news that inflation is coming down. But with high interest rates and the looming threat of Trump’s tariffs, economic challenges remain.
@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social on TalkTV 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYI3...
@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social on TalkTV 👇
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYI3...