Ayushi Gupta
@ayushi31.bsky.social
Software Engineer trying to keep it simple ✨
Founder of devolvedelections.co.uk
Founder of devolvedelections.co.uk
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
October 11, 2025 at 12:52 PM
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
August 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales.
2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...
2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
August 19, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales.
2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...
2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
Irish Election Projections
Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
irishelections.ie
August 3, 2025 at 11:48 AM
A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
Irish Election Projections
Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
irishelections.ie
July 29, 2025 at 10:21 AM
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
July 25, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
July 17, 2025 at 11:11 AM
We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
🚨 We've introduced a new tool which shows you how the Northern Ireland Executive is formed.
Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play!
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈
Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play!
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈
July 5, 2025 at 10:36 AM
🚨 We've introduced a new tool which shows you how the Northern Ireland Executive is formed.
Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play!
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈
Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play!
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
July 1, 2025 at 5:37 PM
🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
We crunched the numbers so you don’t have to 😎
Our Stormont Election Projection Tool just got a nod from @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social 👀
Curious who's up, down, or hanging by a transfer? 📈 Dive in:
Our Stormont Election Projection Tool just got a nod from @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social 👀
Curious who's up, down, or hanging by a transfer? 📈 Dive in:
🗳️ Delighted that our Stormont Election Projection Tool is featured by @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social ✨
Built on constituency level data to map potential 2027 outcomes. 📊
Read more: sluggerotoole.com/2025/06/30/i...
Built on constituency level data to map potential 2027 outcomes. 📊
Read more: sluggerotoole.com/2025/06/30/i...
June 30, 2025 at 10:49 AM
We crunched the numbers so you don’t have to 😎
Our Stormont Election Projection Tool just got a nod from @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social 👀
Curious who's up, down, or hanging by a transfer? 📈 Dive in:
Our Stormont Election Projection Tool just got a nod from @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social 👀
Curious who's up, down, or hanging by a transfer? 📈 Dive in:
My husband knows the politics 🗳️
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡
#elections #devolution #politics #uk
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡
#elections #devolution #politics #uk
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
June 26, 2025 at 7:21 PM
My husband knows the politics 🗳️
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡
#elections #devolution #politics #uk
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡
#elections #devolution #politics #uk
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
Our new London Assembly projection tool is live!
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
June 26, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Our new London Assembly projection tool is live!
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
New visual for Scotland! 📊 — you can now see the order of Regional seats in our Scottish projections. Our latest Nowcast has the Tories down to just 1 seat in Glasgow.
www.devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
www.devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
June 24, 2025 at 11:21 AM
New visual for Scotland! 📊 — you can now see the order of Regional seats in our Scottish projections. Our latest Nowcast has the Tories down to just 1 seat in Glasgow.
www.devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
www.devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
You can now see D'Hondt seat allocation for every Senedd constituency!
The last two seats in Caerdydd Penarth are on a Knife edge between Plaid Cymru, Tories and Greens according to our Nowcast.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
The last two seats in Caerdydd Penarth are on a Knife edge between Plaid Cymru, Tories and Greens according to our Nowcast.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
June 18, 2025 at 10:35 AM
You can now see D'Hondt seat allocation for every Senedd constituency!
The last two seats in Caerdydd Penarth are on a Knife edge between Plaid Cymru, Tories and Greens according to our Nowcast.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
The last two seats in Caerdydd Penarth are on a Knife edge between Plaid Cymru, Tories and Greens according to our Nowcast.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
Sick of pretending you understand STV counts in Northern Ireland? Same.
We’ve added a vote transfer graphic that spells it out count by count - because watching your fave get eliminated shouldn’t require a maths degree 🗳️💅
Come for the democracy, stay for the drama!
#STV #NorthernIreland #Elections
We’ve added a vote transfer graphic that spells it out count by count - because watching your fave get eliminated shouldn’t require a maths degree 🗳️💅
Come for the democracy, stay for the drama!
#STV #NorthernIreland #Elections
June 12, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Sick of pretending you understand STV counts in Northern Ireland? Same.
We’ve added a vote transfer graphic that spells it out count by count - because watching your fave get eliminated shouldn’t require a maths degree 🗳️💅
Come for the democracy, stay for the drama!
#STV #NorthernIreland #Elections
We’ve added a vote transfer graphic that spells it out count by count - because watching your fave get eliminated shouldn’t require a maths degree 🗳️💅
Come for the democracy, stay for the drama!
#STV #NorthernIreland #Elections
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
We've added a new Tactical Voting button - this adjusts up the vote shares of previously large parties in Scottish constituencies in line with historic trends.
It shifts the SNP down 2 seats in our Nowcast to 59.
Lab — 19
Ref — 17
Con — 16
GP — 10
LD — 8
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
It shifts the SNP down 2 seats in our Nowcast to 59.
Lab — 19
Ref — 17
Con — 16
GP — 10
LD — 8
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
June 10, 2025 at 10:09 AM
We've added a new Tactical Voting button - this adjusts up the vote shares of previously large parties in Scottish constituencies in line with historic trends.
It shifts the SNP down 2 seats in our Nowcast to 59.
Lab — 19
Ref — 17
Con — 16
GP — 10
LD — 8
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
It shifts the SNP down 2 seats in our Nowcast to 59.
Lab — 19
Ref — 17
Con — 16
GP — 10
LD — 8
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
Play around with the only projection site which includes Scotland, Wales & even Northern Ireland!
Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
May 22, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Play around with the only projection site which includes Scotland, Wales & even Northern Ireland!
Reposted by Ayushi Gupta
Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27:
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, visual, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
May 9, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27:
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/
SF — 28 Seats
DUP — 21 Seats
AP — 16 Seats
UUP — 9 Seats
SDLP — 9 Seats
TUV — 7 Seats
From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/