Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social
Politics PhD and Postdoctoral Assistant at the University of Edinburgh. Interested in elections and political behaviour.
Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie
Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie
Pinned
Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social
· Jul 3
Officially a Doctor of Politics for my work looking at how devolved elections have impacted party systems in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?
October 21, 2025 at 10:47 AM
To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
The UCL Constitution Unit has an excellent briefing series on UK politics that is perfect for students of all ages and levels. The latest release includes a briefing on #NorthernIreland, which I co-authored.
Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...
@conunitucl.bsky.social
Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...
@conunitucl.bsky.social
October 15, 2025 at 10:29 AM
The UCL Constitution Unit has an excellent briefing series on UK politics that is perfect for students of all ages and levels. The latest release includes a briefing on #NorthernIreland, which I co-authored.
Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...
@conunitucl.bsky.social
Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...
@conunitucl.bsky.social
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
October 11, 2025 at 12:52 PM
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We also provide seat ranges for all Unionists, Nationalists and Others to see which bloc is likely to come out ahead.
We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.
It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.
It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
October 9, 2025 at 12:30 PM
We also provide seat ranges for all Unionists, Nationalists and Others to see which bloc is likely to come out ahead.
We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.
It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.
It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
September 13, 2025 at 1:48 PM
We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
August 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
August 16, 2025 at 9:42 AM
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
Irish Election Projections
Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
irishelections.ie
August 3, 2025 at 11:48 AM
A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
July 31, 2025 at 9:23 AM
The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Our first Nowcast:
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2
From @irishelection.bsky.social
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2
From @irishelection.bsky.social
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
Irish Election Projections
Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
irishelections.ie
July 29, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Our first Nowcast:
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2
From @irishelection.bsky.social
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2
From @irishelection.bsky.social
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
July 25, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
💥 The Government has just published its proposals for electoral reforms
💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."
💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."
July 17, 2025 at 9:43 AM
💥 The Government has just published its proposals for electoral reforms
💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."
💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
July 17, 2025 at 11:11 AM
We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
Also, whoever wrote this obviously never tried to use one to get into a pub in Enniskillen.
July 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Also, whoever wrote this obviously never tried to use one to get into a pub in Enniskillen.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
“The point about PR isn't that it favours one party or another. In the unlikely event that most people choose a populist party we'd get a populist government. What PR will not do - and FPTP very much would - is to hand 100% government control to a party that most people voted against” Andy Beck MVM
July 13, 2025 at 5:26 AM
“The point about PR isn't that it favours one party or another. In the unlikely event that most people choose a populist party we'd get a populist government. What PR will not do - and FPTP very much would - is to hand 100% government control to a party that most people voted against” Andy Beck MVM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
If this happened in any other part of the UK or the island of Ireland, people would rightfully go to prison for it.
July 11, 2025 at 9:25 AM
If this happened in any other part of the UK or the island of Ireland, people would rightfully go to prison for it.
The formation of the NI Executive is one of NI's oddest quirks.
This obeys all the rules - and there a lot of them - to make it easy to understand and accurate.
This obeys all the rules - and there a lot of them - to make it easy to understand and accurate.
🚨 We've introduced a new tool which shows you how the Northern Ireland Executive is formed.
Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play!
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈
Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play!
👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈
July 5, 2025 at 10:45 AM
The formation of the NI Executive is one of NI's oddest quirks.
This obeys all the rules - and there a lot of them - to make it easy to understand and accurate.
This obeys all the rules - and there a lot of them - to make it easy to understand and accurate.
1 year ago today Labour swept to power. They won a huge majority of seats with an unremarkable share
I've put last year's results into our projection to see how Labour *could* have done if GE24 results had played out at the devolved tier in Scotland & Wales vs how they're doing now
It's not pretty
I've put last year's results into our projection to see how Labour *could* have done if GE24 results had played out at the devolved tier in Scotland & Wales vs how they're doing now
It's not pretty
July 4, 2025 at 10:15 AM
1 year ago today Labour swept to power. They won a huge majority of seats with an unremarkable share
I've put last year's results into our projection to see how Labour *could* have done if GE24 results had played out at the devolved tier in Scotland & Wales vs how they're doing now
It's not pretty
I've put last year's results into our projection to see how Labour *could* have done if GE24 results had played out at the devolved tier in Scotland & Wales vs how they're doing now
It's not pretty
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Who wants to see how 81 different census variables correlate with this May's local election results? Of course you do:
www.datawrapper.de/_/avuui/?v=4
www.datawrapper.de/_/avuui/?v=4
Local elections 2025: aggregate-level correlations | Created with Datawrapper
Pearson correlation coefficients between aggregate-level census data and the 2025 local election vote share of each party, for the electoral ward or County Electoral District.
www.datawrapper.de
July 3, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Who wants to see how 81 different census variables correlate with this May's local election results? Of course you do:
www.datawrapper.de/_/avuui/?v=4
www.datawrapper.de/_/avuui/?v=4
Officially a Doctor of Politics for my work looking at how devolved elections have impacted party systems in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
July 3, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Officially a Doctor of Politics for my work looking at how devolved elections have impacted party systems in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
New Ipsos Poll for @stv.news
SNP — 57 Seats
Lab — 25
GP — 16
Ref — 16
Con — 8
LD — 7
Alba — 0
Conservatives in 5th with just 1 constituency seat.
SNP — 57 Seats
Lab — 25
GP — 16
Ref — 16
Con — 8
LD — 7
Alba — 0
Conservatives in 5th with just 1 constituency seat.
July 2, 2025 at 7:42 AM
New Ipsos Poll for @stv.news
SNP — 57 Seats
Lab — 25
GP — 16
Ref — 16
Con — 8
LD — 7
Alba — 0
Conservatives in 5th with just 1 constituency seat.
SNP — 57 Seats
Lab — 25
GP — 16
Ref — 16
Con — 8
LD — 7
Alba — 0
Conservatives in 5th with just 1 constituency seat.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
July 1, 2025 at 5:37 PM
🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
My husband knows the politics 🗳️
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡
#elections #devolution #politics #uk
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡
#elections #devolution #politics #uk
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
June 26, 2025 at 7:21 PM
My husband knows the politics 🗳️
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡
#elections #devolution #politics #uk
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡
#elections #devolution #politics #uk
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our new London Assembly projection tool is live!
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
June 26, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Our new London Assembly projection tool is live!
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).
Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/