Bancroft Sutherland
@bancsutherland.bsky.social
Portfolio manager
Aside from the salient substantive differences in the situations, today’s action did not include blaring an incredible rock playlist for 3-days outside the embassy of the Holy See. Which, as a kid at the time, was absolutely the most notable aspect of that operation.
![From:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nifty_Package
Reportedly the version of the song "
Fought the Law" performed by The Clash was played repeatedly along with "You Shook Me All Night Long" by AC/DC 13] and
"Welcome to the Jungle" by Guns N' Roses;
[14] other songs in the line-up were "Too Old To Rock 'N' Roll" by Jethro Tull, 1]
"Panama" by Van Halen, and "Never Gonna Give You Up" by Rick Astley. 161[171[18]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cpnt3bylxd75cvufdh4gb4ir/bafkreiedleybzvbjh4ej47ly566yytkenxepcjpk77jbjtq3vpuyld4wkq@jpeg)
January 3, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Aside from the salient substantive differences in the situations, today’s action did not include blaring an incredible rock playlist for 3-days outside the embassy of the Holy See. Which, as a kid at the time, was absolutely the most notable aspect of that operation.
When the morning headlines abruptly shift from WTAF to No Shit Sherlock.
TRUMP: US WILL BE STRONGLY INVOLVED IN VENEZUELA'S OIL INDUSTRY
January 3, 2026 at 2:22 PM
When the morning headlines abruptly shift from WTAF to No Shit Sherlock.
Starting an activist HF to push for a spin out of the struggling EV business, unlocking the value of a standalone vibes pure play.
lmao Model Y + 3 = 406,500 that leaves 11,700 for Model S, X and the massive bust that is the Cybertruck
(stonk to the moon of course)
(stonk to the moon of course)
January 2, 2026 at 2:10 PM
Starting an activist HF to push for a spin out of the struggling EV business, unlocking the value of a standalone vibes pure play.
from Until Saturday by @jasonkirk.fyi
January 2, 2026 at 1:49 PM
from Until Saturday by @jasonkirk.fyi
Reposted by Bancroft Sutherland
Next season on Fansville, the fans get State’s HC fired, only to learn his buyout is a lifetime supply of Dr. Pepper.
January 1, 2026 at 10:00 PM
Next season on Fansville, the fans get State’s HC fired, only to learn his buyout is a lifetime supply of Dr. Pepper.
Reposted by Bancroft Sutherland
Snippet from Michael Cembalest's (JPM) latest: "Tech capital spending in 2025 was roughly equal to the Manhattan Project, farm electrification, the Moon Landing, the Interstate Highway system and several FDR-era public works projects combined, measured as a share of GDP"
January 1, 2026 at 5:01 PM
Snippet from Michael Cembalest's (JPM) latest: "Tech capital spending in 2025 was roughly equal to the Manhattan Project, farm electrification, the Moon Landing, the Interstate Highway system and several FDR-era public works projects combined, measured as a share of GDP"
Aside from the primary US-China dynamics, the letter left me with two general thoughts about the state of US tech:
1. The basic concept of GARP does not currently exist w/in the industry.
2. This collective short-term and facile rationale is a serious long-term problem.
1. The basic concept of GARP does not currently exist w/in the industry.
2. This collective short-term and facile rationale is a serious long-term problem.
January 1, 2026 at 5:03 PM
Aside from the primary US-China dynamics, the letter left me with two general thoughts about the state of US tech:
1. The basic concept of GARP does not currently exist w/in the industry.
2. This collective short-term and facile rationale is a serious long-term problem.
1. The basic concept of GARP does not currently exist w/in the industry.
2. This collective short-term and facile rationale is a serious long-term problem.
Reposted by Bancroft Sutherland
This is how I learned I’m a better fit for finance culture and tech culture. You only succeed in tech culture by fully embracing the Current Thing and being all-in on it: danwang.co/2025-letter/
January 1, 2026 at 3:30 PM
This is how I learned I’m a better fit for finance culture and tech culture. You only succeed in tech culture by fully embracing the Current Thing and being all-in on it: danwang.co/2025-letter/
They looked very good but a spring game semi-final is a bit much.
January 1, 2026 at 2:32 PM
They looked very good but a spring game semi-final is a bit much.
Even 2011 had interesting aspects. ORCL was the 3rd largest position in the index - it had recovered all of the late-summer / debt-ceiling selloff and then promptly tanked nearly 20% in December. Ex-ORCL the index would have been positive that month.
Gimmicky low-N data analysis -- times in the past 25 years when the Nasdaq 100 was down in both November and December:
2000 (!)
2007 (!)
2011 (okay not exciting)
2018 (good buying opp)
2025* (if we closed here)
2000 (!)
2007 (!)
2011 (okay not exciting)
2018 (good buying opp)
2025* (if we closed here)
December 31, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Even 2011 had interesting aspects. ORCL was the 3rd largest position in the index - it had recovered all of the late-summer / debt-ceiling selloff and then promptly tanked nearly 20% in December. Ex-ORCL the index would have been positive that month.
Heading into the last day of the year, returns since the post-Liberation Day low in April:
Large Cap (R1K): +39.3%
Small Cap (R2K): +43.1%
Foreign Developed: +36.9%
Foreign Emerging: +45.9%
US Bond Agg: +5.6%
Long UST (TLT): +2.8%
USD (DXY): -4.6%
Crude (WTI): -2.7%
Gold: +45.0%
Bitcoin: +14.6%
Large Cap (R1K): +39.3%
Small Cap (R2K): +43.1%
Foreign Developed: +36.9%
Foreign Emerging: +45.9%
US Bond Agg: +5.6%
Long UST (TLT): +2.8%
USD (DXY): -4.6%
Crude (WTI): -2.7%
Gold: +45.0%
Bitcoin: +14.6%
December 31, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Heading into the last day of the year, returns since the post-Liberation Day low in April:
Large Cap (R1K): +39.3%
Small Cap (R2K): +43.1%
Foreign Developed: +36.9%
Foreign Emerging: +45.9%
US Bond Agg: +5.6%
Long UST (TLT): +2.8%
USD (DXY): -4.6%
Crude (WTI): -2.7%
Gold: +45.0%
Bitcoin: +14.6%
Large Cap (R1K): +39.3%
Small Cap (R2K): +43.1%
Foreign Developed: +36.9%
Foreign Emerging: +45.9%
US Bond Agg: +5.6%
Long UST (TLT): +2.8%
USD (DXY): -4.6%
Crude (WTI): -2.7%
Gold: +45.0%
Bitcoin: +14.6%
CV theme to year-end coverage.
December 30, 2025 at 6:55 PM
CV theme to year-end coverage.
I wish I wanted anything in the world as much as the NYT wants me to Switch to All Access Family or to Add the Sunday Times in Print to my Subscription or to Give a Gift Subscription.
December 30, 2025 at 6:19 PM
I wish I wanted anything in the world as much as the NYT wants me to Switch to All Access Family or to Add the Sunday Times in Print to my Subscription or to Give a Gift Subscription.
Alternative SOTP valuation:
$55 Autos
$40 Energy
$330 Vibes
$55 Autos
$40 Energy
$330 Vibes
"But but but... robots!" - Morgan Stanley
(chart below is their estimate of per share value for each major part of the company. from their recent re-initiation piece.)
(chart below is their estimate of per share value for each major part of the company. from their recent re-initiation piece.)
December 30, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Alternative SOTP valuation:
$55 Autos
$40 Energy
$330 Vibes
$55 Autos
$40 Energy
$330 Vibes
From a portfolio management standpoint, the rush to hedge against USD earlier this year, as opposed to even a slowdown in inflows let alone actual outflows, was one of the most interesting dynamics/takeaways of the year.
One widespread narrative from earlier this year that was proven almost hilariously incorrect: US capital flight. The 6 months ended October saw the largest foreign inflows to US financial markets in history, mostly thanks to record equity net buys of $532bn, with over $200bn UST purchases too.
December 29, 2025 at 8:46 PM
From a portfolio management standpoint, the rush to hedge against USD earlier this year, as opposed to even a slowdown in inflows let alone actual outflows, was one of the most interesting dynamics/takeaways of the year.
Along the lines of a mercy rule in youth sports, if the YTD SPX return through 12/24 is in double digits, positive or negative, the market should be closed the entire last week of the year and re-open on 1/2.
December 29, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Along the lines of a mercy rule in youth sports, if the YTD SPX return through 12/24 is in double digits, positive or negative, the market should be closed the entire last week of the year and re-open on 1/2.
For as dominant as mega cap tech has been, small caps are now leading dating back to the 4th of July of last year.
December 29, 2025 at 4:00 PM
For as dominant as mega cap tech has been, small caps are now leading dating back to the 4th of July of last year.
Hard to get too surprised at anything theses days, but the advent of meme commodities is remarkable. Would have guessed FCOJ a more likely candidate, especially around Christmas, than a precious metal.
December 29, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Hard to get too surprised at anything theses days, but the advent of meme commodities is remarkable. Would have guessed FCOJ a more likely candidate, especially around Christmas, than a precious metal.
Getting a rate cut *during* a 4%+ GDP quarter is a good marker of an unusual macro environment.
Big 8:30 data slate
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
December 23, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Getting a rate cut *during* a 4%+ GDP quarter is a good marker of an unusual macro environment.
Not a combo you see every day:
- Retail stock
- Growing EPS at 10%+
- Trading at 40x fwd EPS
- In bear market territory
- Retail stock
- Growing EPS at 10%+
- Trading at 40x fwd EPS
- In bear market territory
$COST now in bear-market territory, not far from its worst drawdown since the GFC
December 20, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Not a combo you see every day:
- Retail stock
- Growing EPS at 10%+
- Trading at 40x fwd EPS
- In bear market territory
- Retail stock
- Growing EPS at 10%+
- Trading at 40x fwd EPS
- In bear market territory
Bloomberg’s Digital Politics Editor: “This warrior dividend, this check for $1,776, coming around holiday time for service members, really shows that they are paying attention to the poll numbers and seeing what they can do.”
I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.
I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.
December 18, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Bloomberg’s Digital Politics Editor: “This warrior dividend, this check for $1,776, coming around holiday time for service members, really shows that they are paying attention to the poll numbers and seeing what they can do.”
I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.
I will never understand the default journalistic framing of this era.
The number of ranchers and the number of consumers in the US are about equal, so you could see how the political calculus is tricky.
December 17, 2025 at 2:11 PM
The number of ranchers and the number of consumers in the US are about equal, so you could see how the political calculus is tricky.
If they had only announced a Moon Taxi initiative they could have gotten 5x this valuation.
Waymo Seeking Over $15 Billion at Valuation Near $100 Billion
Waymo, Alphabet Inc.’s autonomous driving unit, is in discussions to raise more than $15 billion at a valuation near $100 billion, in a round led by its parent company.
www.bloomberg.com
December 16, 2025 at 10:56 PM
If they had only announced a Moon Taxi initiative they could have gotten 5x this valuation.
If a company is worried about maintaining margins amid persistent inflation and potential tariff disruptions, while also being told that significant AI-driven productivity gains are right around the corner, I’m not sure another 50 bps moves the needle on hiring decisions.
Even if the private sector employment downturn has bottomed, there remains an unanswered question regarding how/why further rate cuts in this specific environment would spark accelerated hiring from here.
Private-sector hiring remains weak and may have stalled totally.
Since April, these numbers suggest monthly private sector job growth has averaged +45k per month.
But the Fed reckons job growth is overstated by at least this month.
= Private-sector hiring over recent months may well be negative.
Since April, these numbers suggest monthly private sector job growth has averaged +45k per month.
But the Fed reckons job growth is overstated by at least this month.
= Private-sector hiring over recent months may well be negative.
December 16, 2025 at 3:05 PM
If a company is worried about maintaining margins amid persistent inflation and potential tariff disruptions, while also being told that significant AI-driven productivity gains are right around the corner, I’m not sure another 50 bps moves the needle on hiring decisions.