Lou Mannheim
@loumannheim87.bsky.social
Chief investment officer. Former sell-side, former buy-side. Not Jon Hamm. New Yorker. Wants coffee.
Or... maybe we could help them get a job, and then they could pay US taxes. And eat at US restaurants, shop at US stores ... Just a thought.
Immigrants living in the U.S. illegally will be paid $3,000 if they leave the country voluntarily by the end of the calendar year, a tripling of the “exit bonus” currently paid to those who self-deport.
Migrants Who Self-Deport to Be Paid $3,000 in ‘Exit Bonus’
Homeland Security billed the increased payment as a ‘limited time offer’ for the holiday season.
on.wsj.com
December 22, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Or... maybe we could help them get a job, and then they could pay US taxes. And eat at US restaurants, shop at US stores ... Just a thought.
@carlquintanilla.bsky.social ... question for Faber. Why is PSKY stock up today? Historically, the acquirer's stock falls when they announce a massive deal. (overpaying, distraction, etc)
December 22, 2025 at 2:18 PM
@carlquintanilla.bsky.social ... question for Faber. Why is PSKY stock up today? Historically, the acquirer's stock falls when they announce a massive deal. (overpaying, distraction, etc)
Does momentum matter? Well, it depends. Below is an interesting table. The first line is the average return of the S&P 500 members. The second line is the average of ONLY the members who had outperformed the prior 5 years. +1.6% average over these 10 years
December 19, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Does momentum matter? Well, it depends. Below is an interesting table. The first line is the average return of the S&P 500 members. The second line is the average of ONLY the members who had outperformed the prior 5 years. +1.6% average over these 10 years
Reposted by Lou Mannheim
Visa 5yr fwd PE multiple. Visa is one of the best businesses I've ever seen. But its stock has underperformed 4 of the last 5 years. The covid "cross border" downturn hurt. And now stablecoin is denting the multiple again. ... Not sure how I feel about it for 2026.
December 19, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Visa 5yr fwd PE multiple. Visa is one of the best businesses I've ever seen. But its stock has underperformed 4 of the last 5 years. The covid "cross border" downturn hurt. And now stablecoin is denting the multiple again. ... Not sure how I feel about it for 2026.
AMZN 5yr chart of its fwd PE multiple. A more extreme version of Nvidia's chart. Just a dramatic revaluation lower.
December 18, 2025 at 9:40 PM
AMZN 5yr chart of its fwd PE multiple. A more extreme version of Nvidia's chart. Just a dramatic revaluation lower.
NVDA 5yr chart of its fwd PE. I dont see a bubble. I see a steady decline in the valuation.
December 18, 2025 at 8:44 PM
NVDA 5yr chart of its fwd PE. I dont see a bubble. I see a steady decline in the valuation.
This tweet is the 21st most read story on bloomberg in the past hour. To calculate shelter, the BLS mostly uses OER, which relies on a growth rate (rather than an observable price). Since they didnt have October, they just assumed growth was zero that month. (Very reliable, not at all relevant.)
December 18, 2025 at 3:38 PM
This tweet is the 21st most read story on bloomberg in the past hour. To calculate shelter, the BLS mostly uses OER, which relies on a growth rate (rather than an observable price). Since they didnt have October, they just assumed growth was zero that month. (Very reliable, not at all relevant.)
Continuing claims... What's up with that sharp dip last week? And then we snapped back this week?
Anyone else smell something funky?
Anyone else smell something funky?
December 18, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Continuing claims... What's up with that sharp dip last week? And then we snapped back this week?
Anyone else smell something funky?
Anyone else smell something funky?
Any thoughts @carlquintanilla.bsky.social ...? ;)
December 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Any thoughts @carlquintanilla.bsky.social ...? ;)
Reposted by Lou Mannheim
But this report may understate inflation a bit.
Here's why: Usually the BLS collects prices all through November. But the shutdown kept it closed for the first half of November.
So more prices than usual were collected in the middle of "Black Friday" sales.
Here's why: Usually the BLS collects prices all through November. But the shutdown kept it closed for the first half of November.
So more prices than usual were collected in the middle of "Black Friday" sales.
December 18, 2025 at 1:35 PM
But this report may understate inflation a bit.
Here's why: Usually the BLS collects prices all through November. But the shutdown kept it closed for the first half of November.
So more prices than usual were collected in the middle of "Black Friday" sales.
Here's why: Usually the BLS collects prices all through November. But the shutdown kept it closed for the first half of November.
So more prices than usual were collected in the middle of "Black Friday" sales.
Sometimes I get upset at @matt-levine.bsky.social being a much better writer than me. "Yoink!"
December 17, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Sometimes I get upset at @matt-levine.bsky.social being a much better writer than me. "Yoink!"
Macro fun. Below is the 10yr ust yld(blue) and 10yr inflation swap yield (red). They've been trading together recently. (Correl 0.42) ... If inflation trends lower as tariffs anniversary next year, then is it time to buy bonds again? (Honestly asking. Been a long time since I've said that!)
December 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Macro fun. Below is the 10yr ust yld(blue) and 10yr inflation swap yield (red). They've been trading together recently. (Correl 0.42) ... If inflation trends lower as tariffs anniversary next year, then is it time to buy bonds again? (Honestly asking. Been a long time since I've said that!)
Maybe the @washingtonpost.com should take a look at U6 unemployment. I wouldn't describe that as "looks good".
December 17, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Maybe the @washingtonpost.com should take a look at U6 unemployment. I wouldn't describe that as "looks good".
Broadcom's nxt yr PE fell by 25% over 3 days. 15% from the stock. 10% from estimates going higher.
December 17, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Broadcom's nxt yr PE fell by 25% over 3 days. 15% from the stock. 10% from estimates going higher.
5yr inflation swaps back down. Now 2.37%. The lowest since April. Apparently they saw "slowing growth" in today's numbers.
December 16, 2025 at 4:12 PM
5yr inflation swaps back down. Now 2.37%. The lowest since April. Apparently they saw "slowing growth" in today's numbers.
Maga types love to say the unemployment rate is skewed by the denominator. Well, hard to argue with this. Total number of unemployed people.
December 16, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Maga types love to say the unemployment rate is skewed by the denominator. Well, hard to argue with this. Total number of unemployed people.
Reposted by Lou Mannheim
One of the biggest moments of my career:
USCIS canceled my client’s naturalization oath ceremony. We filed a lawsuit, went to trial, and the judge swore him in right there in the courtroom!
USCIS canceled my client’s naturalization oath ceremony. We filed a lawsuit, went to trial, and the judge swore him in right there in the courtroom!
December 16, 2025 at 3:21 PM
One of the biggest moments of my career:
USCIS canceled my client’s naturalization oath ceremony. We filed a lawsuit, went to trial, and the judge swore him in right there in the courtroom!
USCIS canceled my client’s naturalization oath ceremony. We filed a lawsuit, went to trial, and the judge swore him in right there in the courtroom!
Employment rate and 24-month moving average. (Looking for inflection points.)
December 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Employment rate and 24-month moving average. (Looking for inflection points.)
The unemployment rate for Nov might be wonky. They made some adjustments because of the shutdown.
December 16, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The unemployment rate for Nov might be wonky. They made some adjustments because of the shutdown.
Netflix posted a letter about the merger today. They include cable TV viewing time in the market share calc. On that basis, the Para bid is actually worse for competition.
Nielson Share:
Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2%
Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%
Nielson Share:
Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2%
Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%
December 15, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Netflix posted a letter about the merger today. They include cable TV viewing time in the market share calc. On that basis, the Para bid is actually worse for competition.
Nielson Share:
Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2%
Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%
Nielson Share:
Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2%
Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%
The top 15 stocks are 48% of the S&P. They have an average 10yr CAGR of 28%. How did they get there? Multiple expansion contributed only 2.7% of that (on average). The rest was raw earnings growth. And some dividends.
December 15, 2025 at 3:17 PM
The top 15 stocks are 48% of the S&P. They have an average 10yr CAGR of 28%. How did they get there? Multiple expansion contributed only 2.7% of that (on average). The rest was raw earnings growth. And some dividends.
Rich is a good follow for WBD insights (if you still follow folks on that other pond)
December 15, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Rich is a good follow for WBD insights (if you still follow folks on that other pond)
Goldman's outlook for Nov jobs report. Coming out tomorrow.
December 15, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Goldman's outlook for Nov jobs report. Coming out tomorrow.
