Lou Mannheim
@loumannheim87.bsky.social
Chief investment officer. Former sell-side, former buy-side. Not Jon Hamm. New Yorker. Wants coffee.
Dirty secret of hedge funds. They'll use this to create a simple long/short market-neutral portfolio. It works really well, except when the momentum factor reverses (ie, 2022) and you get blown up.
December 19, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Dirty secret of hedge funds. They'll use this to create a simple long/short market-neutral portfolio. It works really well, except when the momentum factor reverses (ie, 2022) and you get blown up.
Here are the non-averaged numbers. Personally, I think this is too choppy to draw any conclusions from. But here it is if you want it.
December 19, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Here are the non-averaged numbers. Personally, I think this is too choppy to draw any conclusions from. But here it is if you want it.
Does momentum matter? Well, it depends. Below is an interesting table. The first line is the average return of the S&P 500 members. The second line is the average of ONLY the members who had outperformed the prior 5 years. +1.6% average over these 10 years
December 19, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Does momentum matter? Well, it depends. Below is an interesting table. The first line is the average return of the S&P 500 members. The second line is the average of ONLY the members who had outperformed the prior 5 years. +1.6% average over these 10 years
Visa 5yr fwd PE multiple. Visa is one of the best businesses I've ever seen. But its stock has underperformed 4 of the last 5 years. The covid "cross border" downturn hurt. And now stablecoin is denting the multiple again. ... Not sure how I feel about it for 2026.
December 19, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Visa 5yr fwd PE multiple. Visa is one of the best businesses I've ever seen. But its stock has underperformed 4 of the last 5 years. The covid "cross border" downturn hurt. And now stablecoin is denting the multiple again. ... Not sure how I feel about it for 2026.
AMZN 5yr chart of its fwd PE multiple. A more extreme version of Nvidia's chart. Just a dramatic revaluation lower.
December 18, 2025 at 9:40 PM
AMZN 5yr chart of its fwd PE multiple. A more extreme version of Nvidia's chart. Just a dramatic revaluation lower.
Sure, see below. The spike in 2023 is when the data center segment really started to go ballistic. It wasnt in the trailing EPS yet. But the market was starting to price in what was coming.
December 18, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Sure, see below. The spike in 2023 is when the data center segment really started to go ballistic. It wasnt in the trailing EPS yet. But the market was starting to price in what was coming.
33x average. 21x-45x is the 1 st dev range.
December 18, 2025 at 8:55 PM
33x average. 21x-45x is the 1 st dev range.
NVDA 5yr chart of its fwd PE. I dont see a bubble. I see a steady decline in the valuation.
December 18, 2025 at 8:44 PM
NVDA 5yr chart of its fwd PE. I dont see a bubble. I see a steady decline in the valuation.
This tweet is the 21st most read story on bloomberg in the past hour. To calculate shelter, the BLS mostly uses OER, which relies on a growth rate (rather than an observable price). Since they didnt have October, they just assumed growth was zero that month. (Very reliable, not at all relevant.)
December 18, 2025 at 3:38 PM
This tweet is the 21st most read story on bloomberg in the past hour. To calculate shelter, the BLS mostly uses OER, which relies on a growth rate (rather than an observable price). Since they didnt have October, they just assumed growth was zero that month. (Very reliable, not at all relevant.)
Good thread from Furman (on the other site) about what happened to Shelter.
December 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Good thread from Furman (on the other site) about what happened to Shelter.
Continuing claims (not seasonally adjusted) - versus the same week in prior years. Makes more sense.
December 18, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Continuing claims (not seasonally adjusted) - versus the same week in prior years. Makes more sense.
Continuing claims... What's up with that sharp dip last week? And then we snapped back this week?
Anyone else smell something funky?
Anyone else smell something funky?
December 18, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Continuing claims... What's up with that sharp dip last week? And then we snapped back this week?
Anyone else smell something funky?
Anyone else smell something funky?
Any thoughts @carlquintanilla.bsky.social ...? ;)
December 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Any thoughts @carlquintanilla.bsky.social ...? ;)
Sometimes I get upset at @matt-levine.bsky.social being a much better writer than me. "Yoink!"
December 17, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Sometimes I get upset at @matt-levine.bsky.social being a much better writer than me. "Yoink!"
P&G fwd PE over the past 5 years. Catching that falling knife...
December 17, 2025 at 2:00 PM
P&G fwd PE over the past 5 years. Catching that falling knife...
Ha! Thank you sir. I shouldve posted the longer-term chart. We're now way above pre-covid level of 6.8
December 17, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Ha! Thank you sir. I shouldve posted the longer-term chart. We're now way above pre-covid level of 6.8
U6 (aka, "underemployment"). This might explain weakness at the low end that we've heard from McDonalds, Walmart, and a bunch of other folks.
December 17, 2025 at 1:45 PM
U6 (aka, "underemployment"). This might explain weakness at the low end that we've heard from McDonalds, Walmart, and a bunch of other folks.
Macro fun. Below is the 10yr ust yld(blue) and 10yr inflation swap yield (red). They've been trading together recently. (Correl 0.42) ... If inflation trends lower as tariffs anniversary next year, then is it time to buy bonds again? (Honestly asking. Been a long time since I've said that!)
December 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Macro fun. Below is the 10yr ust yld(blue) and 10yr inflation swap yield (red). They've been trading together recently. (Correl 0.42) ... If inflation trends lower as tariffs anniversary next year, then is it time to buy bonds again? (Honestly asking. Been a long time since I've said that!)
Maybe the @washingtonpost.com should take a look at U6 unemployment. I wouldn't describe that as "looks good".
December 17, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Maybe the @washingtonpost.com should take a look at U6 unemployment. I wouldn't describe that as "looks good".
Broadcom's nxt yr PE fell by 25% over 3 days. 15% from the stock. 10% from estimates going higher.
December 17, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Broadcom's nxt yr PE fell by 25% over 3 days. 15% from the stock. 10% from estimates going higher.
5yr inflation swaps back down. Now 2.37%. The lowest since April. Apparently they saw "slowing growth" in today's numbers.
December 16, 2025 at 4:12 PM
5yr inflation swaps back down. Now 2.37%. The lowest since April. Apparently they saw "slowing growth" in today's numbers.
Maga types love to say the unemployment rate is skewed by the denominator. Well, hard to argue with this. Total number of unemployed people.
December 16, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Maga types love to say the unemployment rate is skewed by the denominator. Well, hard to argue with this. Total number of unemployed people.
Employment rate and 24-month moving average. (Looking for inflection points.)
December 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Employment rate and 24-month moving average. (Looking for inflection points.)
The unemployment rate for Nov might be wonky. They made some adjustments because of the shutdown.
December 16, 2025 at 1:19 PM
The unemployment rate for Nov might be wonky. They made some adjustments because of the shutdown.
Results and estimates have still been solid. It might be as simple as "the multiple got a little ahead of itself". Coming back into range now tho.
December 15, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Results and estimates have still been solid. It might be as simple as "the multiple got a little ahead of itself". Coming back into range now tho.