Lou Mannheim
@loumannheim87.bsky.social
Chief investment officer. Former sell-side, former buy-side. Not Jon Hamm. New Yorker. Wants coffee.
Netflix posted a letter about the merger today. They include cable TV viewing time in the market share calc. On that basis, the Para bid is actually worse for competition.
Nielson Share:
Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2%
Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%
Nielson Share:
Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2%
Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%
December 15, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Netflix posted a letter about the merger today. They include cable TV viewing time in the market share calc. On that basis, the Para bid is actually worse for competition.
Nielson Share:
Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2%
Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%
Nielson Share:
Netflix 8.0% + HBO 1.2% = Netflix post deal 9.2%
Para 8.2% + all WBD 5.6% = Para post deal 13.8%
The top 15 stocks are 48% of the S&P. They have an average 10yr CAGR of 28%. How did they get there? Multiple expansion contributed only 2.7% of that (on average). The rest was raw earnings growth. And some dividends.
December 15, 2025 at 3:17 PM
The top 15 stocks are 48% of the S&P. They have an average 10yr CAGR of 28%. How did they get there? Multiple expansion contributed only 2.7% of that (on average). The rest was raw earnings growth. And some dividends.
Rich is a good follow for WBD insights (if you still follow folks on that other pond)
December 15, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Rich is a good follow for WBD insights (if you still follow folks on that other pond)
Goldman's outlook for Nov jobs report. Coming out tomorrow.
December 15, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Goldman's outlook for Nov jobs report. Coming out tomorrow.
Barron's Top 10 Picks from this weekend last year had a good year (to be fair, they underperformed in 2024)
December 13, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Barron's Top 10 Picks from this weekend last year had a good year (to be fair, they underperformed in 2024)
I barely recognized him without the jackass smirk on his face. I hope he gives up the press conferences. I dont know if I could stand it.
December 13, 2025 at 4:44 PM
I barely recognized him without the jackass smirk on his face. I hope he gives up the press conferences. I dont know if I could stand it.
Reposted by Lou Mannheim
BofA: AI could power the next productivity boom
December 13, 2025 at 3:34 PM
BofA: AI could power the next productivity boom
Reposted by Lou Mannheim
So you’re going to spend more on capex than the Street expects...
Well, are you at least booking better than expected sales at the same time? No
Well, are you also going to get new projects up and running on schedule? Also no. $ORCL
sherwood.news/markets/orac...
Well, are you at least booking better than expected sales at the same time? No
Well, are you also going to get new projects up and running on schedule? Also no. $ORCL
sherwood.news/markets/orac...
December 12, 2025 at 4:36 PM
So you’re going to spend more on capex than the Street expects...
Well, are you at least booking better than expected sales at the same time? No
Well, are you also going to get new projects up and running on schedule? Also no. $ORCL
sherwood.news/markets/orac...
Well, are you at least booking better than expected sales at the same time? No
Well, are you also going to get new projects up and running on schedule? Also no. $ORCL
sherwood.news/markets/orac...
AVGO shares pressure today, due to...
December 12, 2025 at 3:07 PM
AVGO shares pressure today, due to...
Reposted by Lou Mannheim
On a daily basis Musk claims Western civilization’s success or failure can be determined by skin pigment. He is a gutter racist.
Please see my pinned post.
Please see my pinned post.
December 11, 2025 at 11:18 PM
On a daily basis Musk claims Western civilization’s success or failure can be determined by skin pigment. He is a gutter racist.
Please see my pinned post.
Please see my pinned post.
If you're on Instagram, this was fantastic. Waymo coming soon to a town near you.
www.instagram.com/reel/DSKgZRI...
www.instagram.com/reel/DSKgZRI...
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December 12, 2025 at 1:28 PM
If you're on Instagram, this was fantastic. Waymo coming soon to a town near you.
www.instagram.com/reel/DSKgZRI...
www.instagram.com/reel/DSKgZRI...
Revenge of the nerds! Bank stocks below. We hit a new high yesterday. It wasnt AI stocks driving it
December 12, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Revenge of the nerds! Bank stocks below. We hit a new high yesterday. It wasnt AI stocks driving it
Um. What happened to Google all of a sudden?
December 11, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Um. What happened to Google all of a sudden?
If you're a fan of dramatic backroom deals, this is just a terrific read.
“To really enjoy the hostile takeover process a person has to be into its slow-moving corporate kabuki theatre of regulatory arbitrage and shadow boxing by legal precedent. Fortunately, we are.“ www.ft.com/content/baf7...
The 10 best worst hostile takeover offers ever
An entirely subjective list of shareholder primacy, management hubris and value destruction
www.ft.com
December 11, 2025 at 5:38 PM
If you're a fan of dramatic backroom deals, this is just a terrific read.
So you're saying there's a chance...
December 11, 2025 at 12:51 PM
So you're saying there's a chance...
On at least two levels
December 11, 2025 at 3:21 AM
On at least two levels
"If you get away from tariffs, then inflation is in the low 2s" ... I think this is what's driving the market higher. Powell not worried about inflation much. That suggests the bias is to more rate cuts.
"Services inflation is coming down. That's offset by increases in goods inflation. Goods inflation is in sectors where there are tariffs. ... doesnt feel like a hot economy that would generate Phillips curve kind of inflation"
"Rates are now in a broad range of plausible estimates of neutral." - Fed Chair Jerome Powell, 12/10/2025
December 10, 2025 at 8:15 PM
"If you get away from tariffs, then inflation is in the low 2s" ... I think this is what's driving the market higher. Powell not worried about inflation much. That suggests the bias is to more rate cuts.
Avg monthly payrolls growth was 38k per month since April. Powell just said he thinks that's overstated by 60k! So he thinks the monthly avg since April is -20k. (If I understand his comment correctly.)
"Services inflation is coming down. That's offset by increases in goods inflation. Goods inflation is in sectors where there are tariffs. ... doesnt feel like a hot economy that would generate Phillips curve kind of inflation"
"Rates are now in a broad range of plausible estimates of neutral." - Fed Chair Jerome Powell, 12/10/2025
December 10, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Avg monthly payrolls growth was 38k per month since April. Powell just said he thinks that's overstated by 60k! So he thinks the monthly avg since April is -20k. (If I understand his comment correctly.)
"Services inflation is coming down. That's offset by increases in goods inflation. Goods inflation is in sectors where there are tariffs. ... doesnt feel like a hot economy that would generate Phillips curve kind of inflation"
"Rates are now in a broad range of plausible estimates of neutral." - Fed Chair Jerome Powell, 12/10/2025
These 2026 dots seem more dispersed than normal
December 10, 2025 at 7:56 PM
"Services inflation is coming down. That's offset by increases in goods inflation. Goods inflation is in sectors where there are tariffs. ... doesnt feel like a hot economy that would generate Phillips curve kind of inflation"
"Rates are now in a broad range of plausible estimates of neutral." - Fed Chair Jerome Powell, 12/10/2025
December 10, 2025 at 7:52 PM
"Rates are now in a broad range of plausible estimates of neutral." - Fed Chair Jerome Powell, 12/10/2025
These 2026 dots seem more dispersed than normal
December 10, 2025 at 7:41 PM
These 2026 dots seem more dispersed than normal
A few great charts from Torsten at Apollo today. (Showtime at the Apollo!)
Increasing inflation expectations, perhaps?
If you dont already, here's the link for his daily blast. www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...
Increasing inflation expectations, perhaps?
If you dont already, here's the link for his daily blast. www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...
December 10, 2025 at 2:54 PM
A few great charts from Torsten at Apollo today. (Showtime at the Apollo!)
Increasing inflation expectations, perhaps?
If you dont already, here's the link for his daily blast. www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...
Increasing inflation expectations, perhaps?
If you dont already, here's the link for his daily blast. www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...
ADBE's P/E over the past 3 years. Literally cut in half. The extra crazy part is that the results have been fine. Earnings estimates have been drifting higher.
December 10, 2025 at 2:52 AM
ADBE's P/E over the past 3 years. Literally cut in half. The extra crazy part is that the results have been fine. Earnings estimates have been drifting higher.