Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
Managing editor @votebeat.org. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org
Pinned
Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
· Nov 11
New job alert! Today I started as the new managing editor of @votebeat.org, a nonprofit news site that covers election administration and voting rights issues.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
A hill I will die on: message-testing polls are a legitimate way to figure out angles that resonate with voters. This kind of survey is not a "push poll."
A "push poll" isn't even a poll--they are not collecting or analyzing data, just spreading negative messages to a very wide audience.
A "push poll" isn't even a poll--they are not collecting or analyzing data, just spreading negative messages to a very wide audience.
The survey in the field this week appears designed to identify Rob Sand’s weaknesses and the strongest arguments a competitor could make before the June 2 Democratic primary.
www.bleedingheartland.com/2026/01/30/s...
www.bleedingheartland.com/2026/01/30/s...
Someone is testing messages about Rob Sand and Julie Stauch
Laura Belin publishes the questionnaire from a new poll testing dozens of messages about the two Democrats running for governor.
www.bleedingheartland.com
January 30, 2026 at 10:14 PM
A hill I will die on: message-testing polls are a legitimate way to figure out angles that resonate with voters. This kind of survey is not a "push poll."
A "push poll" isn't even a poll--they are not collecting or analyzing data, just spreading negative messages to a very wide audience.
A "push poll" isn't even a poll--they are not collecting or analyzing data, just spreading negative messages to a very wide audience.
At a Democratic press gaggle at NASS, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows says, “Noem, Bondi, and Gabbard were cowards for not showing up today.”
January 30, 2026 at 8:41 PM
At a Democratic press gaggle at NASS, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows says, “Noem, Bondi, and Gabbard were cowards for not showing up today.”
With secretaries of state gathered to hear from maybe Tulsi Gabbard, maybe Kristi Noem, the president of NASS got up and announced… no one is coming.
January 30, 2026 at 8:03 PM
With secretaries of state gathered to hear from maybe Tulsi Gabbard, maybe Kristi Noem, the president of NASS got up and announced… no one is coming.
Axios reporting now that it’s just Gabbard. I’m at NASS, and everyone’s waiting with bated breath to see who’ll show…
Fresh off the FBI raid of a Georgia election office and DOJ pressuring Minnesota to hand over its registered voter list, Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, and Tulsi Gabbard will be speaking to the National Association of Secretaries of State tomorrow afternoon, per a White House rep.
January 30, 2026 at 6:38 PM
Axios reporting now that it’s just Gabbard. I’m at NASS, and everyone’s waiting with bated breath to see who’ll show…
Republicans have essentially proposed their version of Dems’ For The People Act (HR 1). Here’s what’s in it, and why it’s unlikely to pass: www.votebeat.org/2026/01/30/r...
Republicans propose major election-law changes ahead of 2026 midterms
The GOP bills would be the biggest changes to federal election law in more than 20 years.
www.votebeat.org
January 30, 2026 at 6:26 PM
Republicans have essentially proposed their version of Dems’ For The People Act (HR 1). Here’s what’s in it, and why it’s unlikely to pass: www.votebeat.org/2026/01/30/r...
ICYMI!
[email protected] is hiring a Senior National Reporter to cover issues of voting and democracy in 2026 and beyond. Reach out if you're interested in applying, we're a great place to work! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau...
Recruitment
workforcenow.adp.com
January 30, 2026 at 2:28 PM
ICYMI!
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
[email protected] is hiring a Senior National Reporter to cover issues of voting and democracy in 2026 and beyond. Reach out if you're interested in applying, we're a great place to work! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau...
Recruitment
workforcenow.adp.com
January 28, 2026 at 6:26 PM
[email protected] is hiring a Senior National Reporter to cover issues of voting and democracy in 2026 and beyond. Reach out if you're interested in applying, we're a great place to work! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau...
Here's what election officials are saying about yesterday's FBI raid of a Georgia election office. www.votebeat.org/2026/01/29/e...
January 29, 2026 at 7:49 PM
Here's what election officials are saying about yesterday's FBI raid of a Georgia election office. www.votebeat.org/2026/01/29/e...
I guess this is the week Republicans are really pushing their elections agenda! However, this bill won’t be able to get past the filibuster in the Senate. www.foxnews.com/politics/hou...
House Republicans push election overhaul with voter ID, mail-in ballot changes ahead of midterms
The Make Elections Great Again Act would mandate photo identification, tighten voter registration rules, overhaul mail-in voting and establish federal standards for U.S. elections.
www.foxnews.com
January 29, 2026 at 4:30 PM
I guess this is the week Republicans are really pushing their elections agenda! However, this bill won’t be able to get past the filibuster in the Senate. www.foxnews.com/politics/hou...
Fresh off the FBI raid of a Georgia election office and DOJ pressuring Minnesota to hand over its registered voter list, Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, and Tulsi Gabbard will be speaking to the National Association of Secretaries of State tomorrow afternoon, per a White House rep.
January 29, 2026 at 4:15 PM
Fresh off the FBI raid of a Georgia election office and DOJ pressuring Minnesota to hand over its registered voter list, Pam Bondi, Kristi Noem, and Tulsi Gabbard will be speaking to the National Association of Secretaries of State tomorrow afternoon, per a White House rep.
[email protected] is hiring a Senior National Reporter to cover issues of voting and democracy in 2026 and beyond. Reach out if you're interested in applying, we're a great place to work! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau...
Recruitment
workforcenow.adp.com
January 28, 2026 at 6:26 PM
[email protected] is hiring a Senior National Reporter to cover issues of voting and democracy in 2026 and beyond. Reach out if you're interested in applying, we're a great place to work! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau...
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
Calling all election reporters: We at @votebeat.org are hiring a senior national reporter! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau... Reach out to me if you have questions!
Recruitment
workforcenow.adp.com
January 27, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Calling all election reporters: We at @votebeat.org are hiring a senior national reporter! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau... Reach out to me if you have questions!
Calling all election reporters: We at @votebeat.org are hiring a senior national reporter! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau... Reach out to me if you have questions!
Recruitment
workforcenow.adp.com
January 27, 2026 at 4:22 PM
Calling all election reporters: We at @votebeat.org are hiring a senior national reporter! workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/defau... Reach out to me if you have questions!
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
I’m thrilled to announce that I’m joining @votebeatus to cover voting access, election administration and democracy across Arizona!
I've long admired this outlet's work, and I'm excited to be on the team.
I start today, so send tips and add me to press lists: [email protected].
I've long admired this outlet's work, and I'm excited to be on the team.
I start today, so send tips and add me to press lists: [email protected].
January 26, 2026 at 8:04 PM
I’m thrilled to announce that I’m joining @votebeatus to cover voting access, election administration and democracy across Arizona!
I've long admired this outlet's work, and I'm excited to be on the team.
I start today, so send tips and add me to press lists: [email protected].
I've long admired this outlet's work, and I'm excited to be on the team.
I start today, so send tips and add me to press lists: [email protected].
This is a must-read for anyone trying to say anything about U.S. public opinion on ICE and the recent killings in Minneapolis. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/23/p...
Why Polls About the Killing of Renee Good Are So Hard to Parse
www.nytimes.com
January 25, 2026 at 7:54 PM
This is a must-read for anyone trying to say anything about U.S. public opinion on ICE and the recent killings in Minneapolis. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/23/p...
#NY11 is the only Republican-held seat in NYC, and it might be about to get redrawn.
#BREAKING: Justice Pearlman has ruled that New York’s 11th Congressional District is unconstitutional under the New York constitution.
He orders the NY Redistricting Commission to reconvene and draw a new congressional map by Feb. 6, 2026.
He orders the NY Redistricting Commission to reconvene and draw a new congressional map by Feb. 6, 2026.
January 21, 2026 at 10:08 PM
#NY11 is the only Republican-held seat in NYC, and it might be about to get redrawn.
@kaleighrogers.bsky.social takes a great inside look at one of the most infamous charts in FiveThirtyEight history: www.poynter.org/ethics-trust...
January 21, 2026 at 5:29 PM
@kaleighrogers.bsky.social takes a great inside look at one of the most infamous charts in FiveThirtyEight history: www.poynter.org/ethics-trust...
This article reminded me that Andruw debuted with just 7% in 2018—the same year that Johan Santana fell off with just 2%. If Johan had gotten just a few more votes that year, maybe he could've built momentum and gotten elected this year like Andruw.
new @fangraphs.com: my first look at tonight's Hall of Fame election results — record-setting gains, record-setting comebacks, and some key trends.
I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.
I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.
Centers of Attention: Carlos Beltán and Andruw Jones Elected to the Hall of Fame blogs.fangraphs.com/centers-of-a...
January 21, 2026 at 5:12 PM
This article reminded me that Andruw debuted with just 7% in 2018—the same year that Johan Santana fell off with just 2%. If Johan had gotten just a few more votes that year, maybe he could've built momentum and gotten elected this year like Andruw.
Here are the final numbers for how much each player dropped off from public to private ballots in this year's Baseball #HOF election. I have this data going back 18 years (!) in this spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
January 21, 2026 at 4:12 AM
Here are the final numbers for how much each player dropped off from public to private ballots in this year's Baseball #HOF election. I have this data going back 18 years (!) in this spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social, who once again had the most accurate #HOF projections this year! However, @mwwdean.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social's Flip Rate model also had very good years.
January 21, 2026 at 3:55 AM
Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social, who once again had the most accurate #HOF projections this year! However, @mwwdean.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social's Flip Rate model also had very good years.
Chase Utley (40%➡️59%) Andy Pettitte (28%➡️49%) and Félix Hernández (21%➡️46%) make huge jumps from last year, but they each finished about 10 points lower than on public ballots. #HOF
January 20, 2026 at 11:27 PM
Chase Utley (40%➡️59%) Andy Pettitte (28%➡️49%) and Félix Hernández (21%➡️46%) make huge jumps from last year, but they each finished about 10 points lower than on public ballots. #HOF
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
We finish at 245 pre-results ballots. Thank you for following!
January 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM
We finish at 245 pre-results ballots. Thank you for following!
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
Final projection for tonight. Excited to see who joins the HOF! @notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social
January 20, 2026 at 10:43 PM
Final projection for tonight. Excited to see who joins the HOF! @notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social