Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
Managing editor @votebeat.org. Fall 2025 fellow at the Syracuse University Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship. Former senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org
Pinned
New job alert! Today I started as the new managing editor of @votebeat.org, a nonprofit news site that covers election administration and voting rights issues.
The Dallas County, TX, GOP says it’s going to hand-count ballots in the March primary.
That’s a big deal because hand counts take much longer and are less accurate than machine counts—and #TXsen will be one of the most closely watched primaries in the country.
That’s a big deal because hand counts take much longer and are less accurate than machine counts—and #TXsen will be one of the most closely watched primaries in the country.
December 9, 2025 at 3:41 PM
The Dallas County, TX, GOP says it’s going to hand-count ballots in the March primary.
That’s a big deal because hand counts take much longer and are less accurate than machine counts—and #TXsen will be one of the most closely watched primaries in the country.
That’s a big deal because hand counts take much longer and are less accurate than machine counts—and #TXsen will be one of the most closely watched primaries in the country.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
Important news in this piece:
—Missouri organizers say they’ve collected over 300,000 signatures to block the GOP gerrymander. (They have until Thursday to submit roughly 110,000 valid ones.)
—Federal judge rejects GOP lawsuit to toss the petition. missouriindependent.com/2025/12/08/f...
—Missouri organizers say they’ve collected over 300,000 signatures to block the GOP gerrymander. (They have until Thursday to submit roughly 110,000 valid ones.)
—Federal judge rejects GOP lawsuit to toss the petition. missouriindependent.com/2025/12/08/f...
Federal judge rejects Missouri AG’s push to block referendum on gerrymandered map • Missouri Independent
A federal judge Monday refused to back Missouri’s Republican leaders efforts to block a statewide vote on a gerrymandered congressional map.
missouriindependent.com
December 9, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Important news in this piece:
—Missouri organizers say they’ve collected over 300,000 signatures to block the GOP gerrymander. (They have until Thursday to submit roughly 110,000 valid ones.)
—Federal judge rejects GOP lawsuit to toss the petition. missouriindependent.com/2025/12/08/f...
—Missouri organizers say they’ve collected over 300,000 signatures to block the GOP gerrymander. (They have until Thursday to submit roughly 110,000 valid ones.)
—Federal judge rejects GOP lawsuit to toss the petition. missouriindependent.com/2025/12/08/f...
Indiana’s proposed GOP gerrymander has passed committee in the state Senate.
December 9, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Indiana’s proposed GOP gerrymander has passed committee in the state Senate.
My first article for @votebeat.org is on—what else?—redistricting. www.votebeat.org/2025/12/08/2...
December 8, 2025 at 1:29 PM
My first article for @votebeat.org is on—what else?—redistricting. www.votebeat.org/2025/12/08/2...
All three steroid-linked candidates got less than 5 votes, meaning they can’t be considered the next time this particular #HOF committee meets.
Jeff Kent elected to the Hall of Fame while the four candidates I supported were stiffed and won’t be eligible in 2029. This is a disappointment to say the least
December 8, 2025 at 1:09 AM
All three steroid-linked candidates got less than 5 votes, meaning they can’t be considered the next time this particular #HOF committee meets.
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are on this ballot, though Jeff Kent or Dale Murphy are likelier inductees.
Three hundred fifty-one baseball legends are immortalized in Cooperstown. Who will join them?
Find out tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET on MLB Network as we announce the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee voting results.
Find out tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET on MLB Network as we announce the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee voting results.
December 7, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are on this ballot, though Jeff Kent or Dale Murphy are likelier inductees.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
You can help Bolts continue to provide crucial coverage of local elections. Here's how:
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Support Bolts
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boltsmag.org
December 3, 2025 at 6:20 PM
You can help Bolts continue to provide crucial coverage of local elections. Here's how:
- Repost this = I donate $1.
- Follow @boltsmag.org = I donate $1.
- Donate (link below) + tell me how much = I match your donation.
(Donate monthly = I match a year's worth)
- Repost this = I donate $1.
- Follow @boltsmag.org = I donate $1.
- Donate (link below) + tell me how much = I match your donation.
(Donate monthly = I match a year's worth)
Genuinely suspenseful whether the Indiana Senate has the votes to pass it. I’m tracking senators’ positions here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
December 5, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Genuinely suspenseful whether the Indiana Senate has the votes to pass it. I’m tracking senators’ positions here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
In the NYC election that really matters, Aaron Judge got 11 write-in votes for #NYCmayor, while Pete Alonso got only 3. #Yankees #Mets vote.nyc/sites/defaul...
December 5, 2025 at 4:26 PM
In the NYC election that really matters, Aaron Judge got 11 write-in votes for #NYCmayor, while Pete Alonso got only 3. #Yankees #Mets vote.nyc/sites/defaul...
FL Republicans are in a tricky spot on redistricting. To guard against federal racial gerrymandering lawsuits, it’d be helpful to say they’re redistricting solely for partisan gain…
December 5, 2025 at 3:24 PM
FL Republicans are in a tricky spot on redistricting. To guard against federal racial gerrymandering lawsuits, it’d be helpful to say they’re redistricting solely for partisan gain…
Alito says in this order that it is “indisputable” that California redistricted for partisan gain. So much for the GOP’s lawsuit against that map!
December 4, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Alito says in this order that it is “indisputable” that California redistricted for partisan gain. So much for the GOP’s lawsuit against that map!
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
The Supreme Court has cleared the way for a Texas congressional map that may help the GOP win five more U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterms. A lower court found the map is likely unconstitutional. n.pr/48vTzgl
Supreme Court lets Texas use gerrymandered map that could give GOP 5 more House seats
The Supreme Court has cleared the way for a Texas congressional map that may help the GOP win five more U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterms. A lower court found the map is likely unconstitutional.
n.pr
December 4, 2025 at 11:19 PM
The Supreme Court has cleared the way for a Texas congressional map that may help the GOP win five more U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterms. A lower court found the map is likely unconstitutional. n.pr/48vTzgl
If they have enough, it would put Missouri’s new map on hold until a vote takes place.
Proponents of a ballot measure to repeal Missouri’s new gerrymandered congressional map say they plan to turn in signatures next week.
missouriindependent.com/briefs/misso...
missouriindependent.com/briefs/misso...
Missouri campaign to repeal gerrymandered map plans to submit signatures next week • Missouri Independent
The campaign to repeal Missouri gerrymandered congressional map says it will turn in signatures to put the issue on the ballot next week.
missouriindependent.com
December 4, 2025 at 9:59 PM
If they have enough, it would put Missouri’s new map on hold until a vote takes place.
The real question is if the map has the votes to pass the state Senate. I made a spreadsheet tracking senators' positions on redistricting (as well as if they've been the victims of threats). Input welcome: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
December 3, 2025 at 2:47 PM
The real question is if the map has the votes to pass the state Senate. I made a spreadsheet tracking senators' positions on redistricting (as well as if they've been the victims of threats). Input welcome: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
The AP has called the #TN07 special election for Matt Van Epps (R). But his ~6-point win still represents a big Democratic overperformance in this Trump+22 district.
December 3, 2025 at 2:39 AM
The AP has called the #TN07 special election for Matt Van Epps (R). But his ~6-point win still represents a big Democratic overperformance in this Trump+22 district.
With 90% of the expected vote counted, Van Epps (R) leads Behn (D) 52–47% in #TN07. Davidson County (Nashville) is pretty much fully reported, so Van Epps's margin should only grow from here.
December 3, 2025 at 2:32 AM
With 90% of the expected vote counted, Van Epps (R) leads Behn (D) 52–47% in #TN07. Davidson County (Nashville) is pretty much fully reported, so Van Epps's margin should only grow from here.
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
TN07 is a story about gerrymandering: the GOP cracked Nashville into 3 districts when it redrew the 2022 map, destroying the Dem seat there.
Fast-forward: a section of Nashville, which just 5 years ago had a Dem representative, is now voting Dem by huge margins but it's been designed to not matter.
Fast-forward: a section of Nashville, which just 5 years ago had a Dem representative, is now voting Dem by huge margins but it's been designed to not matter.
December 3, 2025 at 2:14 AM
TN07 is a story about gerrymandering: the GOP cracked Nashville into 3 districts when it redrew the 2022 map, destroying the Dem seat there.
Fast-forward: a section of Nashville, which just 5 years ago had a Dem representative, is now voting Dem by huge margins but it's been designed to not matter.
Fast-forward: a section of Nashville, which just 5 years ago had a Dem representative, is now voting Dem by huge margins but it's been designed to not matter.
In counties that appear fully reported:
Wayne: Trump won by 77, Van Epps wins by 70
Decatur: Trump+69, Van Epps+60
Benton: Trump+65, Van Epps+56
Houston: Trump+58, Van Epps+47
Perry: Trump+69, Van Epps+55
Consistent with a Van Epps win of 10-12 pts. But much depends on Davidson
Wayne: Trump won by 77, Van Epps wins by 70
Decatur: Trump+69, Van Epps+60
Benton: Trump+65, Van Epps+56
Houston: Trump+58, Van Epps+47
Perry: Trump+69, Van Epps+55
Consistent with a Van Epps win of 10-12 pts. But much depends on Davidson
December 3, 2025 at 2:10 AM
In counties that appear fully reported:
Wayne: Trump won by 77, Van Epps wins by 70
Decatur: Trump+69, Van Epps+60
Benton: Trump+65, Van Epps+56
Houston: Trump+58, Van Epps+47
Perry: Trump+69, Van Epps+55
Consistent with a Van Epps win of 10-12 pts. But much depends on Davidson
Wayne: Trump won by 77, Van Epps wins by 70
Decatur: Trump+69, Van Epps+60
Benton: Trump+65, Van Epps+56
Houston: Trump+58, Van Epps+47
Perry: Trump+69, Van Epps+55
Consistent with a Van Epps win of 10-12 pts. But much depends on Davidson
The last county, Williamson, has reported its early votes. Based on early votes everywhere and E-Day votes in a handful of counties, Van Epps (R) now leads districtwide, 49.6–49.3%. #TN07
December 3, 2025 at 1:56 AM
The last county, Williamson, has reported its early votes. Based on early votes everywhere and E-Day votes in a handful of counties, Van Epps (R) now leads districtwide, 49.6–49.3%. #TN07
So far we're seeing a decent-sized red shift as we go from early votes to Election Day:
Decatur was R+46 in the early vote, is now R+60 with nearly everything reporting.
Perry was R+41 in the early vote, is now R+52.
#TN07
Decatur was R+46 in the early vote, is now R+60 with nearly everything reporting.
Perry was R+41 in the early vote, is now R+52.
#TN07
December 3, 2025 at 1:49 AM
So far we're seeing a decent-sized red shift as we go from early votes to Election Day:
Decatur was R+46 in the early vote, is now R+60 with nearly everything reporting.
Perry was R+41 in the early vote, is now R+52.
#TN07
Decatur was R+46 in the early vote, is now R+60 with nearly everything reporting.
Perry was R+41 in the early vote, is now R+52.
#TN07
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
Annnd the red shift has begun in TN.
Perry County was +41% for the GOP in the early vote, but now +51%. Hickman County went from +42% GOP to +47% GOP.
Perry County was +41% for the GOP in the early vote, but now +51%. Hickman County went from +42% GOP to +47% GOP.
December 3, 2025 at 1:43 AM
Annnd the red shift has begun in TN.
Perry County was +41% for the GOP in the early vote, but now +51%. Hickman County went from +42% GOP to +47% GOP.
Perry County was +41% for the GOP in the early vote, but now +51%. Hickman County went from +42% GOP to +47% GOP.
The Davidson County early vote has reported, and it goes for Behn (D) by a whopping 85–15%. She now leads districtwide 53–46% with 44% of the expected vote counted. #TN07
December 3, 2025 at 1:39 AM
The Davidson County early vote has reported, and it goes for Behn (D) by a whopping 85–15%. She now leads districtwide 53–46% with 44% of the expected vote counted. #TN07
In the #TN07 race in 2024, Mark Green (R) won the early vote in Montgomery County by 18 points, and the Election Day vote by 24 points.
Montgomery County is the largest county reporting any votes so far. Behn (D) is outperforming Harris there by 21 points. Assuming the Election Day vote is redder, that's not a great sign for her. (Remember, she needs to outperform by at least 22 to win.)
December 3, 2025 at 1:38 AM
In the #TN07 race in 2024, Mark Green (R) won the early vote in Montgomery County by 18 points, and the Election Day vote by 24 points.
Montgomery County is the largest county reporting any votes so far. Behn (D) is outperforming Harris there by 21 points. Assuming the Election Day vote is redder, that's not a great sign for her. (Remember, she needs to outperform by at least 22 to win.)
December 3, 2025 at 1:32 AM
Montgomery County is the largest county reporting any votes so far. Behn (D) is outperforming Harris there by 21 points. Assuming the Election Day vote is redder, that's not a great sign for her. (Remember, she needs to outperform by at least 22 to win.)
Reposted by Nathaniel Rakich
Important context: The Election Day vote in Tennessee has, in recent cycles, been a lot redder than the early vote. We're talking quite a jump.
In 2024, Harris got roughly 65% of the early/mail vote in Nashville/Davidson County & 55% of the Election Day vote.
In 2024, Harris got roughly 65% of the early/mail vote in Nashville/Davidson County & 55% of the Election Day vote.
December 3, 2025 at 1:30 AM
Important context: The Election Day vote in Tennessee has, in recent cycles, been a lot redder than the early vote. We're talking quite a jump.
In 2024, Harris got roughly 65% of the early/mail vote in Nashville/Davidson County & 55% of the Election Day vote.
In 2024, Harris got roughly 65% of the early/mail vote in Nashville/Davidson County & 55% of the Election Day vote.