Jay Jaffe
@jayjaffe.bsky.social
Senior writer at @FanGraphs.com, formerly SI.com and Baseball Prospectus, creator of JAWS, author of The Cooperstown Casebook (2017). Not sticking to sports or paying $8.
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
1. He wants to
2. It’s plausible he’ll try
3. His people would support it
4. But it’s vastly harder and more complicated than people are suggesting and can’t be done by his fiat
2. It’s plausible he’ll try
3. His people would support it
4. But it’s vastly harder and more complicated than people are suggesting and can’t be done by his fiat
Trump to Reuters about the midterm elections: "When you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election." www.reuters.com/world/us/fiv...
January 15, 2026 at 4:47 PM
1. He wants to
2. It’s plausible he’ll try
3. His people would support it
4. But it’s vastly harder and more complicated than people are suggesting and can’t be done by his fiat
2. It’s plausible he’ll try
3. His people would support it
4. But it’s vastly harder and more complicated than people are suggesting and can’t be done by his fiat
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
No no — tyranny is when you have to have health insurance, not when I send a rogue paramilitary force into your city to gas protesters
January 15, 2026 at 3:03 PM
No no — tyranny is when you have to have health insurance, not when I send a rogue paramilitary force into your city to gas protesters
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
I had the honor to introduce my replacement on 9NEWS
January 15, 2026 at 2:17 AM
I had the honor to introduce my replacement on 9NEWS
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
Headline
First paragraph
Last sentence
There's burying the lede, and then there's burying the lede in a lead-lined coffin at the bottom of the ocean.
First paragraph
Last sentence
There's burying the lede, and then there's burying the lede in a lead-lined coffin at the bottom of the ocean.
January 15, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Headline
First paragraph
Last sentence
There's burying the lede, and then there's burying the lede in a lead-lined coffin at the bottom of the ocean.
First paragraph
Last sentence
There's burying the lede, and then there's burying the lede in a lead-lined coffin at the bottom of the ocean.
For the eighth time (!), I had some fun discussing the Hall of Fame ballot and other nonsense with the Hall of Very Good boys (not to be confused with the Hall of Very Good Boys) www.hovgpodcast.com/2026/01/epis...
Episode 489: Jay Jaffe
This week, Shawn Anderson and Lou Olsen are joined by JAY JAFFE . The baseball Hall of Fame guru joins the boys for the eighth time to brea...
www.hovgpodcast.com
January 15, 2026 at 2:05 PM
For the eighth time (!), I had some fun discussing the Hall of Fame ballot and other nonsense with the Hall of Very Good boys (not to be confused with the Hall of Very Good Boys) www.hovgpodcast.com/2026/01/epis...
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
This is just terrible. Imagine this agent having to go home, look his kids in the eyes, and explain that this is what his grave's going to smell like
Lmao someone threw an open bottle of piss into an ICE vehicle that was driving by
January 15, 2026 at 3:35 AM
This is just terrible. Imagine this agent having to go home, look his kids in the eyes, and explain that this is what his grave's going to smell like
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With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections
January 15, 2026 at 12:39 AM
With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
Milestone ballot!
With their selections here, Pettitte (110) and Abreu (77) match their career highs in total votes, set last year. That was in 205 fewer ballots. Buehrle’s 46 votes now stand along as the most he has ever earned in one cycle. Wright, Pedroia, and Félix have already done it as well
With their selections here, Pettitte (110) and Abreu (77) match their career highs in total votes, set last year. That was in 205 fewer ballots. Buehrle’s 46 votes now stand along as the most he has ever earned in one cycle. Wright, Pedroia, and Félix have already done it as well
Ballot #189 is from a voter who wishes to remain anonymous. We are unable to confirm any adds or drops, if there are any. Beltrán is one vote away from 90.0%
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
January 15, 2026 at 3:18 AM
Milestone ballot!
With their selections here, Pettitte (110) and Abreu (77) match their career highs in total votes, set last year. That was in 205 fewer ballots. Buehrle’s 46 votes now stand along as the most he has ever earned in one cycle. Wright, Pedroia, and Félix have already done it as well
With their selections here, Pettitte (110) and Abreu (77) match their career highs in total votes, set last year. That was in 205 fewer ballots. Buehrle’s 46 votes now stand along as the most he has ever earned in one cycle. Wright, Pedroia, and Félix have already done it as well
March the Democrats who voted for this into the sea. Asbsofuckinglutley useless opposition party
The House voted 341 to 79 to fund Trump's war-mongering foreign policy agenda.
Only 57 Democrats voted NO.
clerk.house.gov/evs/2026/rol...
Only 57 Democrats voted NO.
clerk.house.gov/evs/2026/rol...
January 15, 2026 at 2:09 AM
March the Democrats who voted for this into the sea. Asbsofuckinglutley useless opposition party
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
A competent opposition political party would cut together the footage of what ICE had been doing in the twin cities with Mike Johnson saying "ICE is doing what ICE is designed to do" and have it in ads all across the country
Mike Johnson comes out against additional guardrails on ICE as Democrats call for it.
“I think there's a lot of Democrats playing games right now with national security and with law enforcement. And I think it's dangerous. Ice is doing what ice is designed to do by its very name.”
“I think there's a lot of Democrats playing games right now with national security and with law enforcement. And I think it's dangerous. Ice is doing what ice is designed to do by its very name.”
January 14, 2026 at 11:58 PM
A competent opposition political party would cut together the footage of what ICE had been doing in the twin cities with Mike Johnson saying "ICE is doing what ICE is designed to do" and have it in ads all across the country
Yes, when I think of three-time NL home run leader Nolan Arenado, the first Hall of Fame case that comes to mind is <squints at notes> Ozzie Smith with his 90 wRC+ and 28 career homers.
I’ll grant you the fact that both played on the left side of the St. Louis Cardinals infield at some point…
I’ll grant you the fact that both played on the left side of the St. Louis Cardinals infield at some point…
Did he win a HR title? He's never hit more than 42. His career wRC+ is only 116. I'd compare his case more to Ozzie Smith.
January 13, 2026 at 8:48 PM
Yes, when I think of three-time NL home run leader Nolan Arenado, the first Hall of Fame case that comes to mind is <squints at notes> Ozzie Smith with his 90 wRC+ and 28 career homers.
I’ll grant you the fact that both played on the left side of the St. Louis Cardinals infield at some point…
I’ll grant you the fact that both played on the left side of the St. Louis Cardinals infield at some point…
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
If there’s a better obituary for an evil cartoonist than an A.I. generated version of his character that fucks up the defining detail of its design, I can’t think of it. No notes. 👨🏻🍳 💋
January 13, 2026 at 6:47 PM
If there’s a better obituary for an evil cartoonist than an A.I. generated version of his character that fucks up the defining detail of its design, I can’t think of it. No notes. 👨🏻🍳 💋
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
This is common sense. It's also why we have to consider that most elected Democrats want to keep ICE. Their position is based on approval of ICE, not fear of voters.
if democrats came out today as a whole for "abolish ice" that number would jump to 60 or more, they still fail to grasp how powerful a unifying message behind an intent with momentum is
January 13, 2026 at 5:56 PM
This is common sense. It's also why we have to consider that most elected Democrats want to keep ICE. Their position is based on approval of ICE, not fear of voters.
between this and the $50 million the Rockies paid the Cardinals to take on Arenado's contract, I'm guessing this is a record. Wrote about Matt Kemp last week; his teams ate $49.5 million worth of his contract via 3 trades.
Arenado is still a likely Hall of Famer but, woof.
Arenado is still a likely Hall of Famer but, woof.
The Cardinals are paying $31 million of the $42 million owed to Arenado.
January 13, 2026 at 5:52 PM
between this and the $50 million the Rockies paid the Cardinals to take on Arenado's contract, I'm guessing this is a record. Wrote about Matt Kemp last week; his teams ate $49.5 million worth of his contract via 3 trades.
Arenado is still a likely Hall of Famer but, woof.
Arenado is still a likely Hall of Famer but, woof.
This is deeply weird revisionism of a guy who was always a bigot. The guy was doing holocaust denial 20 years ago when Dilbert was still very popular.
Scott Adams is dead. Without excusing or condoning anything he said, I think it was very hard for a lot of creative people, including him, to watch their entire art form collapse as newspapers stopped running comics, and that resentment was fertile soil for the reaction that he'll be remembered for.
January 13, 2026 at 5:23 PM
Next up in the one-and-done portion of my Hall of Fame ballot series @fangraphs.com, undersized, oft-traded lefty Gio Gonzalez and his exceptional curveball
JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Gio Gonzalez blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the...
JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Gio Gonzalez
The undersized lefty rode one of the game’s best curveballs to an impressive 13-year career.
blogs.fangraphs.com
January 13, 2026 at 5:17 PM
Next up in the one-and-done portion of my Hall of Fame ballot series @fangraphs.com, undersized, oft-traded lefty Gio Gonzalez and his exceptional curveball
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
I exchanged an email with him back in the 90s, when he was still funny. He was still working for the company he ruthlessly made fun of. I asked him how that worked and he replied "It's not a problem! They love me!" They fired him shortly after.
January 13, 2026 at 4:35 PM
I exchanged an email with him back in the 90s, when he was still funny. He was still working for the company he ruthlessly made fun of. I asked him how that worked and he replied "It's not a problem! They love me!" They fired him shortly after.
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
He is survived by his husband and cousin, Eric Adams.
January 13, 2026 at 4:18 PM
He is survived by his husband and cousin, Eric Adams.
January 13, 2026 at 4:33 PM
yeah, we're all shocked that Gristedes, as dogshit a grocery store as I've ever seen in NYC, is cheating customers.
But TIL that an NYC grocery store not having a customer-accessible scale is a violation of the law, and I'm going to use that information accordingly. Ahem.
But TIL that an NYC grocery store not having a customer-accessible scale is a violation of the law, and I'm going to use that information accordingly. Ahem.
City inspectors found hundreds of broken or miscalibrated food scales at groceries and supermarkets between 2023 and 2025.
Among the violators were Gristedes, Westside Market and Whole Foods stores.
buff.ly/xX0eEz2
Among the violators were Gristedes, Westside Market and Whole Foods stores.
buff.ly/xX0eEz2
Faulty Grocery Store Scales Leave New Yorkers Paying the Price
City inspectors found hundreds of broken or miscalibrated food scales in local supermarkets and grocery stores, records show. But there aren’t enough inspectors to keep up with mandatory annual…
www.thecity.nyc
January 13, 2026 at 3:57 PM
yeah, we're all shocked that Gristedes, as dogshit a grocery store as I've ever seen in NYC, is cheating customers.
But TIL that an NYC grocery store not having a customer-accessible scale is a violation of the law, and I'm going to use that information accordingly. Ahem.
But TIL that an NYC grocery store not having a customer-accessible scale is a violation of the law, and I'm going to use that information accordingly. Ahem.
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
I mean - who is investing in Eric Adams crypto? Are we sure this is not just a way for unknown actors to direct money to Adams?
January 13, 2026 at 3:55 AM
I mean - who is investing in Eric Adams crypto? Are we sure this is not just a way for unknown actors to direct money to Adams?
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
AOC: I want everybody to understand that the cuts to your health care are what’s paying for this. You get screwed over to pay a bunch of thugs in the street that are shooting mothers in the face.
January 13, 2026 at 1:20 AM
AOC: I want everybody to understand that the cuts to your health care are what’s paying for this. You get screwed over to pay a bunch of thugs in the street that are shooting mothers in the face.
Reposted by Jay Jaffe
Oh look: a war crime
Breaking NYT:
The Pentagon used a secret aircraft painted to look like a civilian plane in its first boat attack, according to officials briefed on the matter.
The laws of armed conflict forbid combatants from feigning civilian status.
That is a war crime called "perfidy."
The Pentagon used a secret aircraft painted to look like a civilian plane in its first boat attack, according to officials briefed on the matter.
The laws of armed conflict forbid combatants from feigning civilian status.
That is a war crime called "perfidy."
U.S. Attacked Boat With Aircraft That Looked Like a Civilian Plane
www.nytimes.com
January 13, 2026 at 1:00 AM
Oh look: a war crime