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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 10h

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media.tenor.com

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 2d

Hurricane models have had substantial run-to-run variability with TS Jerry's intensity forecast. Jerry seems to be near the critical shear regime (Yu et al. 2023), where there is a high degree of sensitivity to small changes that can tip the scales toward intensification or arrested development.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 3d

Tropical Storm Jerry is experiencing about 20 knots of northwesterly shear, which is displacing the deepest convection toward the southeast of the center. A hodograph of the near-storm winds from the HAFS model shows that the shear is due to strong southeasterly low-level winds.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 7d

Over the next two weeks, there are indications that large-scale conditions will become favorable for ascent in the tropical Atlantic. We'll have to watch for an uptick in TC activity as this pulse of favorability passes, especially in NW Caribbean where ocean heat content is very high.

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Reposted by Brian Tang

Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 7d

Interesting opinion piece from @adamfrank4.bsky.social on trying to link ‘manosphere’ virtues to real science. Unusually, the comments are also worth perusing!

🎁
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/03/o...

Opinion | Why Young Men Are Losing Faith in Science

www.nytimes.com

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 11d

Weather models are showing a bomb cyclone hitting the UK & Ireland later this week. The cyclone forms along a strong baroclinic zone influenced by Hurricane Humberto. As the cyclone matures into a warm seclusion, it develops a powerful sting jet that could bring damaging winds to Ireland & UK.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 11d

The HAFS evolution is pretty wild. Humberto will likely be post-tropical by this stage, but the NHC can proclaim Hurricane IMeldedWithHumberto, right? 😉

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 13d

Hurricane Humberto in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle. We still don’t have a full scientific understanding of what causes these cycles to initiate, even though they are common in mature tropical cyclones.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 13d

Slower development and shallower vortex resulting in slower movement to the north?

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 13d

Some hypotheses:
1) Developing La Niña (resulting in increasing instability)
2) Rossby wave radiation from Gabrielle might have amplified the wave that led to Humberto
3) Just good ole synoptic variability creating a window of opportunity

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Reposted by Brian Tang

Dennis Mersereau 🛰️ @wxdam.com · 14d

ISS astronaut Jonny Kim just shared this snap of Humberto's eye today. You can actually see the seafoam taper off between the eyewall and the eye. Amazing stuff.

Looking down Humberto's eye from the side, you can see white seafoam on the ocean surface beneath the eyewall, fading to relative calmness within the eye itself.

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Reposted by Brian Tang

Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 14d

This is just about as perfect a hurricane as you'll ever see in the Atlantic.

Category 5 Humberto:

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Reposted by Brian Tang

Scott Bachmeier @wisc-satellite.bsky.social · 20d

2.5-minute rapid scan #Himawari9 Visible images provided a phenomenal view of low-altitude mesovortices within the eye of Category 5 Super Typhoon #Ragasa, as the storm center approached islands within the Luzon Strait (between Taiwan and the Philippines).

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 20d

TS Gabrielle’s structure has changed from having persistent bursts of intense thunderstorms on its E (downshear) side, which is a signature of arrested development, to establishing more deep convection on its NW side. Still seems to be affected by dry air that has plagued the storm.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 21d

TS Gabrielle has developed a compact core, perhaps signaling a period of faster intensification starting. There have been hints of an eye in visible imagery. The storm is looking much healthier compared to yesterday.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 21d

Microwave imagery from the SSMIS shows deep convection wrapping around TS Gabrielle’s center, though the vortex still seems tilted toward the east. NOAA reconnaissance flights today will help to determine structure better.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 22d

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is getting better organized with deep convection getting closer to the center. Shear will continue decreasing, and as the upper-level flow becomes more diffluent this weekend, Gabrielle should align and intensify further. Thankfully, minimal threat to any land.

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Reposted by Brian Tang

Dr. Robin Tanamachi 🌪️ @tornatrix.bsky.social · Aug 27

Cancelling the next PAR R&D phase is nonsensical. PAR technology is our best candidate to replace our aging fleet of WSR-88Ds.

Weather radar is one of the most lifesaving and highest-ROI technologies our gov’t has ever supported. Scrapping next gen radar is pound-foolish w/o the penny-wise part.

Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · Aug 27

Important weather science news tonight: NOAA has canceled procurement of the next phased array weather radar R&D instrument. Along with the obvious blow to PAR weather research, it is consistent with other moves by admin to push forward quickly with NOAA cuts. More: https://tinyurl.com/my8hx8j6

NOAA cancels procurement of new phased array weather radar test article

Further stalls important weather research program

tinyurl.com

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Reposted by Brian Tang

NPR @npr.org · Aug 25

Hurricane forecasts are now much more accurate, 20 years on — largely because of federal government research.

Hurricane science has come far since Katrina. That progress is now at risk

Hurricane forecasts are now much more accurate, 20 years on — largely because of federal government research.

n.pr

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · Aug 25

Tropical Storm Juliette taking a peek 👀 courtesy two impressive convective bursts.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · Aug 24

The next couple of weeks look quiet for Atlantic hurricane activity. Thereafter, it looks like convectively active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic, and hurricane activity should pick back up mid-to-late Sep. Enjoy the quiet period while it lasts!

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · Aug 18

Usually find 900 or 850 mb to be a good level to choose.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · Aug 18

Background low-level flow, so the component steering the storm.

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · Aug 18

3) Research has shown that low-level flow that is oriented opposite of the shear direction (e.g., Lee et al. 2021), which is the case for Erin, tends to blunt the effects of vertical wind shear by allowing surface heat fluxes to mitigate the effects of downdrafts and sustain eyewall convection. (4/)

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · Aug 18

2) Hurricane Erin's upshear environment (northern half of the storm) is pretty moist in the middle troposphere. Vertical wind shear weakens hurricanes by pushing dry air into their core (i.e., ventilation). Without a reservoir of dry air that's able to get in, ventilation is minimized. (3/)

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