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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · 2d

Looking forward to the development of fourthly robust, fifthly robust and why not twenty-seventhly robust estimators to keep up with

arXiv stat.ME Methodology @statme-bot.bsky.social · Sep 1

Susan Athey, Guido Imbens, Zhaonan Qu, Davide Viviano: Triply Robust Panel Estimators https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.21536 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536 https://arxiv.org/html/2508.21536

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Thom Volker @thomvolker.bsky.social · 12d

Cool stuff!

Florian van Leeuwen and I implemented a prediction function in the #mice package that allows the incorporation of missing data uncertainty in a prediction interval.

The `predict_mi()` function is available in the current development version: github.com/amices/mice

#Rstats #statsky

Image of R code. To reproduce:

library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr)

library(mice, warn.conflicts = FALSE)

imp <- mice(nhanes, m = 5, maxit = 5, seed = 1,
ignore = rep(c(FALSE, TRUE), c(20, 5)),
print = FALSE)

impdats <- complete(imp, "all")

train <- lapply(impdats, function(dat) subset(dat, !imp$ignore))
test <- lapply(impdats, function(dat) subset(dat, imp$ignore))

fits <- lapply(train, function(dat) lm(age ~ bmi + hyp + chl, data = dat))
preds <- predict_mi(object = fits, newdata = test, pool = TRUE, interval = "prediction")

preds

preds %>%
as.data.frame() %>%
mutate(case = 1:nrow(preds),
y = test[[1]]$age) %>%
ggplot(aes(x = fit, y = case, col = rowSums(is.na(nhanes[imp$ignore,]))>0)) +
geom_point() +
geom_errorbar(aes(xmin = lwr, xmax = upr)) +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = mice::mdc(1:2), labels = c("observed", "missing")) +
theme(legend.title = element_blank(),
legend.position = "bottom") +
labs(x = "prediction",
title = "Pooled prediction intervals")

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Edward Elderman @elderman.bsky.social · 14d

This only happens to you once

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Aug 22

Haha. Glad we are on the same wavelength.

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Aug 22

Hope it’s not too late to recommend Infinite Powers, by @stevenstrogatz.com . It’s fun and very well written!

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Noah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · Jul 9

A nice recent article on why you should abandon hazard ratios.

#statssky #episky

How hazard ratios can mislead and why it matters in practice - European Journal of Epidemiology

Hazard ratios are routinely reported as effect measures in clinical trials and observational studies. However, many methodological works have raised concerns about the interpretation of hazard ratios ...

doi.org

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Jun 30

A lot of the Target Trial Emulation framework is 'just' translating ideas from causal inference with observational data into ideas that are easier to digest and think through, even if you already know the hard stuff.

Now it's time to do some studying and apply these ideas to my own research!

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Jun 30

2. Communication is key in science. Just Robins 'g-formula' would conceptually cover a lot of what we did. But I doubt anybody who is presented with just the g-formula would be able to think clearly about their causal question in terms of treatment strategies, postrandomization events, and so forth.

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Jun 30

Some thoughts after the course:
1. It is very important to think about treatment strategies and how they develop over time. Not commonly done, but often the inference of most interest in trials is about time-varying treatment strategies, not interventions at one time-point.

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Jun 30

Last week I was lucky enough to participate in the Target Trial Emulation course at @causalab.bsky.social. It was a really nice experience! The instructors were excellent, as were the teaching materials, and they covered a great deal of content. I would really recommend it.

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Jun 30

Looks good. Thanks!

Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Jun 30

Can I ask, what would a good 'second' book be in your opinion?

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Ben Goldacre @bengoldacre.bsky.social · Jun 17

"Have you thought about applying the @opensafely model, for data privacy and efficiency, to non-health data?"

YES WE HAVE

Behold the new... OpenSAFELY-Schools!!

schools.opensafely.org

OpenSAFELY Schools

A collaboration between the National Institute of Teaching and the Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science

schools.opensafely.org

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Sara Magliacane @smaglia.bsky.social · May 26

Are you interested in improving the #interpretability, #robustness and #safety of current AI systems with #causality and #RL?

Apply to our PhD position in Amsterdam 🚲🌷🇳🇱

Deadline: June 15

Sara Magliacane @smaglia.bsky.social · May 12

New PhD position at the University of Amsterdam in @amlab.bsky.social on learning concepts with theoretical guarantees using #causality and #RL with me, Frans Oliehoek (TU Delft) and Herke van Hoof 💥

Deadline: 15 June

werkenbij.uva.nl/en/vacancies...

Vacancy — PhD Position on Learning Concepts with Theoretical Guarantees Using Causality and RL

Are you interested in improving the interpretability, robustness and safety of current AI systems? If the answer is yes, please continue reading!

werkenbij.uva.nl

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · May 20

Nice Thom!

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Thom Volker @thomvolker.bsky.social · May 20

Very happy to announce that the R-package `densityratio` is on CRAN! It implements non-parametric distribution comparison through density ratio estimation, which is useful for sample selection bias adjustment, two-sample testing and more!
See thomvolker.github.io/densityratio for vignettes and info!

Distribution Comparison Through Density Ratio Estimation

Fast, flexible and user-friendly tools for distribution comparison through direct density ratio estimation. The estimated density ratio can be used for covariate shift adjustment, outlier-detection, c...

thomvolker.github.io

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Oisín Ryan @oisinryan.bsky.social · Apr 28

Still some spots available in our summer school on all things causal inference, 7-11 July in Utrecht! Discounts for those working in universities and non-profits, and affordable accommodation offered by @utrechtuniversity.bsky.social summer school!

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Maarten van Smeden @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social · Apr 25

HIRING!

We offer 3 fully funded PhD positions to work on research methodology with experts in a great medical research environment.

More info: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

HIRING! We offer 3 fully funded PhD positions to work on research… | Maarten van Smeden

HIRING! We offer 3 fully funded PhD positions to work on research methodology with experts in a great medical research environment. Interested in one of these projects? Send us your motivational let...

www.linkedin.com

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Xavi Cugat - Energía @revenergetica.bsky.social · Apr 17

¡Pues ya estamos! ¡¡¡Primera vez en la historia!!! La energía eólica y la solar cubren más del 100% de la demanda en España peninsular. A las 11h05 el 100,09%. Todas las renovables, tambien récord, 115,14%

El sobrante se exporta y almacena.

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Mar 17

Regresión a la media :)

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Maarten van Smeden @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social · Jan 27

NEW PAPER

Really glad to see this one in print: the harm due to class imbalance corrections in prediction models developed using ML/AI

Excellently led by @alcarriero.bsky.social

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

The EuroCIM @eurocim.bsky.social · Jan 6

🎉 Happy New Year! 🎉

Kickstart 2025 with exciting news! 🌟
Registrations for EuroCIM 2025 are now OPEN! Secure your spot with early-bird discounts until March 1.

🔔 Reminder: Abstract submissions close January 15, 23:00 CET—don’t miss your chance to contribute!

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Reposted by Carlos Poses

Kiko Llaneras @kikollan.llaneras.es · Jan 5

✨ Se publica mi libro en inglés: ‘Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age’ ✨

¡Estoy feliz!

Llega el 23 de enero con #PenguinUK y #Ebury. Y hay más: habrá ediciones en checo, turco, coreano y japonés 👇

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Carlos Poses @carlosgposes.bsky.social · Dec 13

Congrats Lotta!!

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