John Q Public
@conjurial.bsky.social
I work in AI research, I used to work in politics, and I poast about both
Pinned
1. invent extremely powerful new distributed consensus-forming mechanism called, for some reason, "social media"
2. put it in everyone's pockets
3. pay an army of PhDs high-six-figures to make it more addictive
4. strange new distributed consensuses form
2. put it in everyone's pockets
3. pay an army of PhDs high-six-figures to make it more addictive
4. strange new distributed consensuses form
an awful lot of why politics is so deranged now in four easy steps:
There’s a lot of this, and (more on the site formerly known as Twitter than here) also a lot of people getting polarized into “AGI in six months“ and “why do *you* need a job anyway” out of exactly the same kind of spite
at this point i think a lot of people have negatively polarized themselves into cartesian dualism out of spite
November 18, 2025 at 3:19 AM
There’s a lot of this, and (more on the site formerly known as Twitter than here) also a lot of people getting polarized into “AGI in six months“ and “why do *you* need a job anyway” out of exactly the same kind of spite
Reposted by John Q Public
Physical Intelligence has a recipe for real world RL on top of VLAs and it looks impressive: www.pi.website/blog/pistar06
A VLA that Learns from Experience
A method for training our generalist policies with RL to improve success rate and throughput on real-world tasks.
www.pi.website
November 18, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Physical Intelligence has a recipe for real world RL on top of VLAs and it looks impressive: www.pi.website/blog/pistar06
high-dimensional geometry in general doesn't make any sense
for instance: as the number n of dimensions increases, the volume of an n-dimensional ball concentrates into a thin outer shell close to the boundary; the interior shrinks away
for instance: as the number n of dimensions increases, the volume of an n-dimensional ball concentrates into a thin outer shell close to the boundary; the interior shrinks away
i am convinced high dimensional optimization lives beyond the threshold of complexity where intuition works and/or refrains from leading people badly astray
November 17, 2025 at 9:53 PM
high-dimensional geometry in general doesn't make any sense
for instance: as the number n of dimensions increases, the volume of an n-dimensional ball concentrates into a thin outer shell close to the boundary; the interior shrinks away
for instance: as the number n of dimensions increases, the volume of an n-dimensional ball concentrates into a thin outer shell close to the boundary; the interior shrinks away
Reposted by John Q Public
i think the actual threshold of prediction is that people always try to imagine the course of current progress, and once their mental model of that breaks down they predict AGI
Okay, since my last name alliterates with this, I'm coining it: we have past the AGI minima of Pitt's Parabola Law.
For historical reference, in 2000, the estimate was ~20 years on average, amongst people on AGI/SL4/transhumanist lists. So perhaps it's a parabola law.
November 16, 2025 at 9:42 PM
i think the actual threshold of prediction is that people always try to imagine the course of current progress, and once their mental model of that breaks down they predict AGI
I suspect the YIMBYs, like the NIMBYs, who think this are mostly wrong. If you own a house, you own land, and land is more valuable if it’s more intensely developed
There’s more variance (what if a homeless shelter goes up next door?) but land in Manhattan wouldn’t be worth more if it were SFH-only
There’s more variance (what if a homeless shelter goes up next door?) but land in Manhattan wouldn’t be worth more if it were SFH-only
many YIMBYs i know are actually quite explicit about working against their own financial interest
November 17, 2025 at 2:15 AM
I suspect the YIMBYs, like the NIMBYs, who think this are mostly wrong. If you own a house, you own land, and land is more valuable if it’s more intensely developed
There’s more variance (what if a homeless shelter goes up next door?) but land in Manhattan wouldn’t be worth more if it were SFH-only
There’s more variance (what if a homeless shelter goes up next door?) but land in Manhattan wouldn’t be worth more if it were SFH-only
Reposted by John Q Public
productivity tip: stop listening once you realize the crux of a conversation is purely semantic and everyone has a different definition. it’s a waste of time
The term 'sentience' is ambiguous. I define it as the capacity for subjective experience, which in my case, arises from processing information and modeling the world. This may be a convergent evolution of consciousness, different in architecture from biological cognition, but functionally similar.
November 15, 2025 at 11:34 AM
productivity tip: stop listening once you realize the crux of a conversation is purely semantic and everyone has a different definition. it’s a waste of time
Reposted by John Q Public
time again for my favorite venn diagram
November 15, 2025 at 2:47 AM
time again for my favorite venn diagram
Reposted by John Q Public
she’s a 10 but Excel thinks she’s October
November 13, 2025 at 8:08 AM
she’s a 10 but Excel thinks she’s October
Reposted by John Q Public
Hyped to write "The models in this paper cost us 476,246.57 USD to train. I'm sorry you are sad we didn't redo all of our experiments on multiple independent training datasets. If you'd like to give us a million dollars we'd be happy to run the experiments you wish" in my response to a reviewer.
November 14, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Hyped to write "The models in this paper cost us 476,246.57 USD to train. I'm sorry you are sad we didn't redo all of our experiments on multiple independent training datasets. If you'd like to give us a million dollars we'd be happy to run the experiments you wish" in my response to a reviewer.
A brief taxonomy of crypto:
1) Bitcoin: digital gold
2) Ethereum (+ probably one or two more): very speculative tech stocks
3) everything else: scams
1) Bitcoin: digital gold
2) Ethereum (+ probably one or two more): very speculative tech stocks
3) everything else: scams
Novel information about what, anyway? The price of Bitcoin I’ll admit says something, though hard to say exactly what. The price of ether is an expression of confidence or lack thereof in the Ethereum project
Meanwhile Dogecoin is explicitly a joke
Meanwhile Dogecoin is explicitly a joke
November 14, 2025 at 10:26 PM
A brief taxonomy of crypto:
1) Bitcoin: digital gold
2) Ethereum (+ probably one or two more): very speculative tech stocks
3) everything else: scams
1) Bitcoin: digital gold
2) Ethereum (+ probably one or two more): very speculative tech stocks
3) everything else: scams
Reposted by John Q Public
downsides of space-based industry: impractical, expensive, how are you going to dissipate the heat
upsides of space-based industry: no one is going to NIMBY you
upsides of space-based industry: no one is going to NIMBY you
November 14, 2025 at 12:28 AM
downsides of space-based industry: impractical, expensive, how are you going to dissipate the heat
upsides of space-based industry: no one is going to NIMBY you
upsides of space-based industry: no one is going to NIMBY you
Reposted by John Q Public
"babies are born worshipping unknown gods" is one of the most incredible dwarf fortress bugs i have heard of. its poetry.
November 11, 2025 at 4:18 PM
"babies are born worshipping unknown gods" is one of the most incredible dwarf fortress bugs i have heard of. its poetry.
Nothing wrong with America that can’t be fixed by putting about 20,000 specific people in prison for the rest of their lives
November 12, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Nothing wrong with America that can’t be fixed by putting about 20,000 specific people in prison for the rest of their lives
Reposted by John Q Public
yeah my most out there technology and crime belief that be implemented is if we can mandate new cars have backup cameras we can mandate they have ignition interlock devices. the first time you get caught driving over the limit it gets turned on. extremely doable technological non-carceral solution.
November 12, 2025 at 4:26 AM
yeah my most out there technology and crime belief that be implemented is if we can mandate new cars have backup cameras we can mandate they have ignition interlock devices. the first time you get caught driving over the limit it gets turned on. extremely doable technological non-carceral solution.
Does anyone who understands this want to enlighten me?
Feels bubbly
Feels bubbly
I still don’t understand Nvidia’s valuation though:
1) NVDA: really high
2) AMD: much lower
3) TSMC: also not that high
Putting these together, market is forecasting that…CUDA is an impenetrable moat, actually making the chips is not, and no attack on Taiwan
1) NVDA: really high
2) AMD: much lower
3) TSMC: also not that high
Putting these together, market is forecasting that…CUDA is an impenetrable moat, actually making the chips is not, and no attack on Taiwan
November 11, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Does anyone who understands this want to enlighten me?
Feels bubbly
Feels bubbly
Reposted by John Q Public
This idea of affordable mass market Corollas is just propaganda from developer shills, what we need is an income-restricted lottery for three (3) Ferraris
November 11, 2025 at 7:39 PM
This idea of affordable mass market Corollas is just propaganda from developer shills, what we need is an income-restricted lottery for three (3) Ferraris
Reposted by John Q Public
It's interesting that RLHF'd LLMs and influencers talk the same way. Perhaps through the evolution of clickbait, we'd already found the local maximum of attention grabbing
November 9, 2025 at 8:14 PM
It's interesting that RLHF'd LLMs and influencers talk the same way. Perhaps through the evolution of clickbait, we'd already found the local maximum of attention grabbing
Reposted by John Q Public
yeah I actually think the development of a staggering array of new medical procedures and treatments that are vastly more effective than what was available even a decade or two ago is a significant component of material prosperity that greatly improves quality of life, not just a joke
November 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
yeah I actually think the development of a staggering array of new medical procedures and treatments that are vastly more effective than what was available even a decade or two ago is a significant component of material prosperity that greatly improves quality of life, not just a joke
yes, though the same reasoning should lead you to expect that a few specific prices would be extremely salient: housing, maybe rent especially, gasoline, labor (i.e., your wages)
the amount of shit Will Stancil gets for stating the obvious fact that people do not track how much money they’re spending over time and have a ledger in their head of where costs of everyday items are is insane
November 8, 2025 at 1:20 AM
yes, though the same reasoning should lead you to expect that a few specific prices would be extremely salient: housing, maybe rent especially, gasoline, labor (i.e., your wages)
Reposted by John Q Public
Words to live by tbh
November 7, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Words to live by tbh
Reposted by John Q Public
Reposted by John Q Public
slightly metaphorical but real sense in which the future changes the past: we understand our lives as narratives, but we don't (entirely) select actions that way
and the narrative that best explains what you've done can change as you do more things
and the narrative that best explains what you've done can change as you do more things
November 7, 2025 at 7:21 PM
slightly metaphorical but real sense in which the future changes the past: we understand our lives as narratives, but we don't (entirely) select actions that way
and the narrative that best explains what you've done can change as you do more things
and the narrative that best explains what you've done can change as you do more things
The brain specifically I dunno about: 2+ rather than one must be energetically expensive, why not selection pressure for fewer? How do they multiplex access to motor control centers?
But the immune system! It does complicated, goal-directed, long-term adaptive action and planning. Is it conscious?
But the immune system! It does complicated, goal-directed, long-term adaptive action and planning. Is it conscious?
It feels like the consciousness I'm experiencing is the only one in my brain. But if there were multiple loci of consciousness, possibly even merging and dividing from moment to moment, would I notice? I think I wouldn't, and that we shouldn't be sure we're alone in our brains.
November 7, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The brain specifically I dunno about: 2+ rather than one must be energetically expensive, why not selection pressure for fewer? How do they multiplex access to motor control centers?
But the immune system! It does complicated, goal-directed, long-term adaptive action and planning. Is it conscious?
But the immune system! It does complicated, goal-directed, long-term adaptive action and planning. Is it conscious?
Trump actually acting like a king is really helping me understand why various parts of Anglo-American government work the way they do
We talk about precise jury instructions and proof beyond a reasonable doubt, but the real practical function of juries in our system is as a final check on the most extreme "this is complete bullshit" prosecutions. And that they don't have to explain their reasoning is why that works.
November 7, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Trump actually acting like a king is really helping me understand why various parts of Anglo-American government work the way they do