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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 3h

Britain is so vulnerable to its institutions being politicised because it's never needed to protect against it in the modern era; the guardrails have been primarily norms, standards and culture that all sides have abided by (because they work).

Timely study and article.

Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 5h

🧵🚨

The UK’s independent scientific bodies are highly vulnerable to politicisation - over the past 5 months I've been working with @martinmckee.bsky.social to map out their vulnerabilities and it's not good news.

Today our report is published!
www.ucl.ac.uk/policy-lab/n...

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UK’s arm’s length public bodies are highly vulnerable to politicisation

Seven in ten Britons say it is important for top scientific institutions to be independent in exclusive new polling.

www.ucl.ac.uk

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 5h

Ha. Well, there is that.

But I do think the Greens will get more in future than they are at the moment, if only because of the right-wing bias of social and print media, and Polanski's colourful past.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 5h

I think this is the highest-ever Green share of the vote in a UK / GB poll.

Even more notable that they're only two points off second.

FWIW, I don't think they're ready for the level of scrutiny that would come with that kind of performance. A lot of people see what they want to with the Greens.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 8h

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 32% (-3)
LAB: 17% (-2)
CON: 17% (+3)
GRN: 15% (+4)
LDM: 12% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 8 Oct.
Changes w/ 1 Oct.

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Joni Askola @joniaskola.bsky.social · 1d

1/7 Why is Ukraine still winning and Russia still losing the war?

This thread lists a few key facts that Putin would prefer you forget

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 1d

Abolishing stamp duty won't make housing costs cheaper.

With a supply deficit, buyers bid up prices constrained only by affordability. Reduced costs in one area will inflate another.

But it would be a further transfer from the young to the elderly / middle-aged.

Instead: build more.

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 1d

Shortly after accusing all other political party leaders of believing in "the magic money tree", Kemi Badenoch announces her plan to completely scrap stamp duty, without any word on how she plans to pay for it

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

Oh and they're going to abolish stamp duty and business rates for high streets and triple stop and search....

I reckon we're well over £20 billion of committments here.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 1d

You can't. But their influence will be felt within parliament and how other parties (who voters in Reading or Liverpool can support) interact with them matters.

David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 1d

I agree. That's the purpose of the formula I suggest, which ofcom and the like could adopt.

One issue with the 5% rule, if applied alone, is it cuts off regional parties. The SNP wouldn't qualify even if they were about to return 50+ MPs (as they might be).

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 1d

Fine in theory but there are hundreds of registered parties. Where do you draw the line?

I do think it's fair that the parties get proportionate coverage. Those most likely to form, participate in or influence governments should get most scrutiny and visibility.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

I agree.

I sketched out a formula a little while ago that I think would work in the interim. Three equal parts: vote share last election, MPs last election, poll share now.

You'd probably need to give poll share greater weight in an election but I'd still keep an element of the other two.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

Yes, well, it's much the same formula of 'it's all someone else's fault' + 'break things' + 'only we truly represent the nation'.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

Yes. It's extraordinary that after all the scandals of the SNP these last few years - not to mention how the effects of leaving a lesser Union have become obvious - that the nationalists are so far clear. But there we are: on for another landslide.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

Wouldn't a civil servant be more likely to say something like "you do realise, minister, that if you do this then you'll be cutting this much from these councils?"

It's not for civil servants to say policy options are good or bad: merely to imply it through the likely consequences.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

It's a stupid argument from Jenrick's supporters.

Never say or write anything in private that you wouldn't be prepared to justify if it became public. It's a good rule in general; it's a better rule for those in the public eye.

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 2d

If you can't see how this will end, then you're not paying attention (not least to what's going on on the other side of the Atlantic).

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

If it is, that's only a perception at a national level - there was a lot of very good policy that came out of the Lib Dem conference.

But it's certainly possible. That is the local image and the one most voters will see.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

Is that second one a line-out put in? Looks more like a football throw-in but then it's a big (and presumably pretty heavy) pumpkin!

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

It's impossible to say with precision. The swings are so large and in so many directions, and the shares are so small that you can get big variations depending on how clumpy or spread-out the shares are.

Personally, my guess would be Reform biggest party but short of a majority.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

The people doing it are weaponising the justice system against its enemies.

They don't even understand the concept of a neutral system; they genuinely believe that the other side would (and did) use it against them purely for partisan advantage, that what they're doing is legitimate and normal.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

Thank you.

I shall try to continue to post mildly interesting, occasionally amusing and hopefully insightful takes.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

That's as maybe (and, FWIW, I think he probably did the right thing considering his political capital was spent by that point).

Despite that, the following year the Tories were in a position to deliver a crushing general election win - and then screwed the campaign up.

Then, Johnson.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

I don't see how Labour can sustain this reform. A government even semi-functioning politically wouldn't have let it get this far.

Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti.bsky.social · 2d

Some of London’s poorest areas could see their share of the children’s services funding formula halved under Labour’s plans to reform local government grants.

By me, for Politics Home: www.politicshome.com/news/article...

London Councils Face Losing Half Their Share Of Children's Services Funding

Some of London’s poorest areas could see their share of funding for children’s services halved under Labour’s plans to reform local government gran...

www.politicshome.com

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

Absolutely. The Lib Dems should be all over this.

In fact, they almost certainly are: it's just that national media seem to think a party with 72 MPs and 15% of the vote share isn't worth talking to, even though they have a much more distinctive voice than, say, the Tories.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

The Alliance was only fighting two opponents and came third in vote share.

Reform might not win a majority on these numbers but they'd probably be the largest party. The Tories - even a rump of a few dozen - might end up being the swing vote. No prizes for guessing which way they'd go.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 2d

YouGov do tend to find lower Reform shares than some other pollsters. But:

- Joint-lowest Ref share since June
- Joint-highest LD share since 2019
- First time top four parties within 10 points since April

It's anyone's guess what FPTP would do to these shares.

Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 2d

New YouGov Westminster poll:

RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

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