David Herdson
@davidherdson.bsky.social
Part-time writer. Political activist. Fan of Bradford City and rail travel (amongst other things). Bibliophile. Dad. List not necessarily in order of importance.
Tory 'majority' over the Lib Dems as the principal opposition in the Commons now down to 44.
January 26, 2026 at 1:03 PM
Tory 'majority' over the Lib Dems as the principal opposition in the Commons now down to 44.
Surprised she didn't go earlier.
However, this trickle of Tory MPs to Reform will undermine Reform's efforts to be (1) an outsider/challenger party, and (2) specifically an anti-Tory party. May not play that well with a lot of Reform voters who don't like the Tories.
However, this trickle of Tory MPs to Reform will undermine Reform's efforts to be (1) an outsider/challenger party, and (2) specifically an anti-Tory party. May not play that well with a lot of Reform voters who don't like the Tories.
BREAKING: Suella Braverman has defected to Reform UK
Who would have guessed
Who would have guessed
January 26, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Surprised she didn't go earlier.
However, this trickle of Tory MPs to Reform will undermine Reform's efforts to be (1) an outsider/challenger party, and (2) specifically an anti-Tory party. May not play that well with a lot of Reform voters who don't like the Tories.
However, this trickle of Tory MPs to Reform will undermine Reform's efforts to be (1) an outsider/challenger party, and (2) specifically an anti-Tory party. May not play that well with a lot of Reform voters who don't like the Tories.
The figures below are extraordinary. The US is a considerably more unequal society by income distribution than tsarist Russia. That cannot be healthy.
The one thing that is growing extremely fast is the wealth of the top billionaires:
The top 0.00001% used to own the equivalent of 3% of national income in wealth in 2010
Now they own the equivalent of 12% of national income!
The top 0.00001% used to own the equivalent of 3% of national income in wealth in 2010
Now they own the equivalent of 12% of national income!
January 26, 2026 at 12:45 PM
The figures below are extraordinary. The US is a considerably more unequal society by income distribution than tsarist Russia. That cannot be healthy.
Reposted by David Herdson
I called Trump's fascism out in 2016:
(I was right to note the restraining factors that would inhibit a Trump dictatorship then. Since then, time has passed, Trump's learned, and those restraints now barely apply)
www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/ar...
(I was right to note the restraining factors that would inhibit a Trump dictatorship then. Since then, time has passed, Trump's learned, and those restraints now barely apply)
www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/ar...
It’s not neo-fascism, it’s the classic variety – politicalbetting.com
www1.politicalbetting.com
January 26, 2026 at 10:58 AM
I called Trump's fascism out in 2016:
(I was right to note the restraining factors that would inhibit a Trump dictatorship then. Since then, time has passed, Trump's learned, and those restraints now barely apply)
www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/ar...
(I was right to note the restraining factors that would inhibit a Trump dictatorship then. Since then, time has passed, Trump's learned, and those restraints now barely apply)
www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/ar...
"Raising risk" is a weak way of putting it.
Never underestimate the capacity of US Democrats to cave in return for a handful of beans but the politics of them funding ICE right now would be appalling. Or indeed the Trump administration at all.
Another US federal shutdown seems close to nailed on.
Never underestimate the capacity of US Democrats to cave in return for a handful of beans but the politics of them funding ICE right now would be appalling. Or indeed the Trump administration at all.
Another US federal shutdown seems close to nailed on.
BREAKING: Senate Democrats won't back funding bill if DHS is included, Schumer says, raising risk of government shutdown
January 26, 2026 at 10:49 AM
"Raising risk" is a weak way of putting it.
Never underestimate the capacity of US Democrats to cave in return for a handful of beans but the politics of them funding ICE right now would be appalling. Or indeed the Trump administration at all.
Another US federal shutdown seems close to nailed on.
Never underestimate the capacity of US Democrats to cave in return for a handful of beans but the politics of them funding ICE right now would be appalling. Or indeed the Trump administration at all.
Another US federal shutdown seems close to nailed on.
This is true. Trump will use the US's privileged positions in global systems to try to leverage power and payments - and other countries will respond by moving away.
The US Dollar has been notably weak since Trump returned to office - understandably so given his undermining of the Fed etc.
The US Dollar has been notably weak since Trump returned to office - understandably so given his undermining of the Fed etc.
‘The more that other countries look to escape US financial coercion, the more the US will scale it up… The global dollar system may now be a source of instability rather than stability.’ Our new paper by
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social & @himself.bsky.social
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social & @himself.bsky.social
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...
January 26, 2026 at 10:27 AM
This is true. Trump will use the US's privileged positions in global systems to try to leverage power and payments - and other countries will respond by moving away.
The US Dollar has been notably weak since Trump returned to office - understandably so given his undermining of the Fed etc.
The US Dollar has been notably weak since Trump returned to office - understandably so given his undermining of the Fed etc.
While I can see the case for dealing with some crimes via a national force, I'm sceptical about regional super-forces.
I don't think it's a coincidence that policing culture problems have been worst in the biggest forces: huge organisations, remote from the public they're supposed to serve.
I don't think it's a coincidence that policing culture problems have been worst in the biggest forces: huge organisations, remote from the public they're supposed to serve.
The home secretary Shabana Mahmood is to publish a white paper today, to be called "From local to national: a new model for policing". Some readers may wonder how we know so much about it already. Others may not be quite sure what a white paper is.
rozenberg.substack.com/p/the-new-mo...
rozenberg.substack.com/p/the-new-mo...
The new model force
Policing in England and Wales to move from local to national
rozenberg.substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 7:52 AM
While I can see the case for dealing with some crimes via a national force, I'm sceptical about regional super-forces.
I don't think it's a coincidence that policing culture problems have been worst in the biggest forces: huge organisations, remote from the public they're supposed to serve.
I don't think it's a coincidence that policing culture problems have been worst in the biggest forces: huge organisations, remote from the public they're supposed to serve.
That Labour's semi-official reason for blocking Burnham is that it's worried about losing the subsequent mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester - an election Burnham won by 53% in 2024 - should itself be an indictment of the party's leadership.
January 26, 2026 at 7:32 AM
That Labour's semi-official reason for blocking Burnham is that it's worried about losing the subsequent mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester - an election Burnham won by 53% in 2024 - should itself be an indictment of the party's leadership.
Not sensible of Labour's NEC to play silly beggars like this and nurture grudges in others.
PS - The fact that the media was informed of the NEC decision before I was tells you everything you need to know about the way the Labour Party is being run these days.
You would think that over 30 years of service would count for something but sadly not. 🤷🏻♂️
You would think that over 30 years of service would count for something but sadly not. 🤷🏻♂️
January 25, 2026 at 9:52 PM
Not sensible of Labour's NEC to play silly beggars like this and nurture grudges in others.
Burnham's term ends in 2028, fourteen months before the end of this parliament. Blocking him now doesn't end the story, even setting aside the recriminations coming from the act itself.
NEW: Andy Burnham blocked for standing in the Denton by-election.
8-1 against.
Lucy Powell only vote in favour.
8-1 against.
Lucy Powell only vote in favour.
January 25, 2026 at 8:07 PM
Burnham's term ends in 2028, fourteen months before the end of this parliament. Blocking him now doesn't end the story, even setting aside the recriminations coming from the act itself.
I expect Labour think this is some kind of gotcha; no doubt they'll use quotes like it on their leaflets.
Thing is, even if they're effective and peel voters away from Reform (which requires those voters to believe the message and that it matters now), other opposition parties are available.
Thing is, even if they're effective and peel voters away from Reform (which requires those voters to believe the message and that it matters now), other opposition parties are available.
Reform MP Andrew Rosindell tells the BBC that he "would not object" to scrapping the NHS and replacing it with private insurance
January 25, 2026 at 5:07 PM
I expect Labour think this is some kind of gotcha; no doubt they'll use quotes like it on their leaflets.
Thing is, even if they're effective and peel voters away from Reform (which requires those voters to believe the message and that it matters now), other opposition parties are available.
Thing is, even if they're effective and peel voters away from Reform (which requires those voters to believe the message and that it matters now), other opposition parties are available.
Hyper-defensive decision by Labour's NEC, exuding a complete lack of confidence.
The public will take notice and file it in the same box as 'Labour cancelling local elections'.
Very likely they lose the by-election now, with a narrative of 'Burnham would have won'.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
The public will take notice and file it in the same box as 'Labour cancelling local elections'.
Very likely they lose the by-election now, with a narrative of 'Burnham would have won'.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Andy Burnham's bid to return as MP blocked by Labour ruling body
The Greater Manchester mayor is seen as a potential leadership challenger to Sir Keir Starmer.
www.bbc.co.uk
January 25, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Hyper-defensive decision by Labour's NEC, exuding a complete lack of confidence.
The public will take notice and file it in the same box as 'Labour cancelling local elections'.
Very likely they lose the by-election now, with a narrative of 'Burnham would have won'.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
The public will take notice and file it in the same box as 'Labour cancelling local elections'.
Very likely they lose the by-election now, with a narrative of 'Burnham would have won'.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
I'm not a fan of puppet-president theories, which tend to smack of conspiracy theory, and often quite ugly ones.
However, Vance/Thiel is an exception. I've little doubt this was what Thiel was aiming at.
Whether it'd work out in reality is another matter. Presidents have little need for sponsors.
However, Vance/Thiel is an exception. I've little doubt this was what Thiel was aiming at.
Whether it'd work out in reality is another matter. Presidents have little need for sponsors.
JD Vance is the handpicked protégé of Peter Thiel, a foreign-born oligarch whose business is mass surveillance and who views democracy as an obstacle to efficiency.
By installing Vance, Thiel is effectively executing a hostile takeover of the US government
By installing Vance, Thiel is effectively executing a hostile takeover of the US government
January 25, 2026 at 10:02 AM
I'm not a fan of puppet-president theories, which tend to smack of conspiracy theory, and often quite ugly ones.
However, Vance/Thiel is an exception. I've little doubt this was what Thiel was aiming at.
Whether it'd work out in reality is another matter. Presidents have little need for sponsors.
However, Vance/Thiel is an exception. I've little doubt this was what Thiel was aiming at.
Whether it'd work out in reality is another matter. Presidents have little need for sponsors.
Reposted by David Herdson
It's getting harder to see how the United States gets out of this dangerous spiral. Another reason for European strategic autonomy. Still its governments will go on doing way too little, way too late.
January 24, 2026 at 7:13 PM
It's getting harder to see how the United States gets out of this dangerous spiral. Another reason for European strategic autonomy. Still its governments will go on doing way too little, way too late.
I'm imagining how today's BBC would have reported the Reichstag fire.
BBC having a totally normal one again, granting respectability and credence to their sworn enemies.
January 25, 2026 at 12:32 AM
I'm imagining how today's BBC would have reported the Reichstag fire.
It was a lot easier talking about Labour's NEC blocking Burnham yesterday, when it was a theoretical question, rather than now it's a real, live one.
I don't think they'll do it with the opprobrium it'd bring on Labour.
Besides, he's already crossed a Rubicon in Manchester declaring his interest.
I don't think they'll do it with the opprobrium it'd bring on Labour.
Besides, he's already crossed a Rubicon in Manchester declaring his interest.
January 24, 2026 at 5:44 PM
It was a lot easier talking about Labour's NEC blocking Burnham yesterday, when it was a theoretical question, rather than now it's a real, live one.
I don't think they'll do it with the opprobrium it'd bring on Labour.
Besides, he's already crossed a Rubicon in Manchester declaring his interest.
I don't think they'll do it with the opprobrium it'd bring on Labour.
Besides, he's already crossed a Rubicon in Manchester declaring his interest.
Well, he left that late.
Ball lobbed into Labour's NEC court.
Ball lobbed into Labour's NEC court.
BREAKING: Andy Burnham says he has sought permission to stand in the by election.
January 24, 2026 at 5:09 PM
Well, he left that late.
Ball lobbed into Labour's NEC court.
Ball lobbed into Labour's NEC court.
This is true (broadly - there are exceptions: Britain's courts aren't remotely politicised as American ones are).
On the other hand, I think civic culture would not be as tolerant of the kind of Trumpite takeover as America has been.
On the other hand, I think civic culture would not be as tolerant of the kind of Trumpite takeover as America has been.
Remember that the UK has far, far weaker protections against state power than did the US. And the latter folded up like a pack of cards. The US is a warning from the British future.
January 24, 2026 at 5:06 PM
This is true (broadly - there are exceptions: Britain's courts aren't remotely politicised as American ones are).
On the other hand, I think civic culture would not be as tolerant of the kind of Trumpite takeover as America has been.
On the other hand, I think civic culture would not be as tolerant of the kind of Trumpite takeover as America has been.
Reposted by David Herdson
Although the odds of some type of civil war are still low in the US, they are not I am afraid zero. For the UK and the EU to remain dependent on American arms and tech is grotesquely unwise.
January 24, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Although the odds of some type of civil war are still low in the US, they are not I am afraid zero. For the UK and the EU to remain dependent on American arms and tech is grotesquely unwise.
Has Burnham bottled it yet?
January 24, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Has Burnham bottled it yet?
I appreciate the school of 'Vance would be even worse than Trump because of his techbro allies' but I doubt it.
Power comes from authority, credibility and respect, as well as from office - and Vance doesn't have the ability to dominate as Trump does, nor to forge and wield a coalition.
Power comes from authority, credibility and respect, as well as from office - and Vance doesn't have the ability to dominate as Trump does, nor to forge and wield a coalition.
The funniest part is Vance never ad libs, he's painfully terrible and awkward at extemporaneous speaking. He sat and read this line and said yes that works, load it into the teleprompter (he's also bad at making it look natural and not obvious he's reading off one).
Vance on the economy:
"You don't turn the Titanic around overnight"
"You don't turn the Titanic around overnight"
January 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM
I appreciate the school of 'Vance would be even worse than Trump because of his techbro allies' but I doubt it.
Power comes from authority, credibility and respect, as well as from office - and Vance doesn't have the ability to dominate as Trump does, nor to forge and wield a coalition.
Power comes from authority, credibility and respect, as well as from office - and Vance doesn't have the ability to dominate as Trump does, nor to forge and wield a coalition.
It is somewhat ironic that the mechanism by which peers can resign / retire from the House of Lords is a lot more modern and efficient than the process for MPs to leave the Commons.
Me: Absolutely ridiculous that this is how we handle MPs resigning in 2026
Also me: Explaining these weird quirks of parliament keeps me in a job
Also me: Explaining these weird quirks of parliament keeps me in a job
Treasury announcement: "The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Andrew John Gwynne to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead."
January 24, 2026 at 11:17 AM
It is somewhat ironic that the mechanism by which peers can resign / retire from the House of Lords is a lot more modern and efficient than the process for MPs to leave the Commons.
The Palace should put out a press statement restating the King's support and appreciation for British, Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and other allied forces who served on the front line in Afghanistan.
With a bit of luck, it might prompt Trump into withdrawing the state visit invitation too.
With a bit of luck, it might prompt Trump into withdrawing the state visit invitation too.
Trump prompts outrage with claim Nato troops avoided frontline in Afghanistan
Trump prompts outrage with claim Nato troops avoided frontline in Afghanistan
UK MPs and veterans condemn US president’s comments and highlight his avoidance of military service in Vietnam
Donald Trump has provoked outrage among British MPs and veterans after claiming Nato troops stayed away from the frontline in Afghanistan.
The US president made his comments in an interview with Fox News in which he reiterated his suggestion that Nato would not support America if asked. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 24, 2026 at 10:02 AM
The Palace should put out a press statement restating the King's support and appreciation for British, Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and other allied forces who served on the front line in Afghanistan.
With a bit of luck, it might prompt Trump into withdrawing the state visit invitation too.
With a bit of luck, it might prompt Trump into withdrawing the state visit invitation too.
I dislike sporting boycotts for multiple reasons.
1. They're invariably ineffective but masquerade as 'doing something' when stronger action is required.
2. They punish the athletes rather than the host.
3. Going allows the media better access to report on the country. It's a platform.
1. They're invariably ineffective but masquerade as 'doing something' when stronger action is required.
2. They punish the athletes rather than the host.
3. Going allows the media better access to report on the country. It's a platform.
A German soccer federation executive committee member says it's time to consider a World Cup boycott because of the actions of U.S. President Donald Trump.
German soccer federation official wants World Cup boycott considered because of Trump
A German soccer federation executive committee member says it’s time to consider a World Cup boycott because of the actions of U.S. President Donald Trump.
bit.ly
January 24, 2026 at 9:51 AM
I dislike sporting boycotts for multiple reasons.
1. They're invariably ineffective but masquerade as 'doing something' when stronger action is required.
2. They punish the athletes rather than the host.
3. Going allows the media better access to report on the country. It's a platform.
1. They're invariably ineffective but masquerade as 'doing something' when stronger action is required.
2. They punish the athletes rather than the host.
3. Going allows the media better access to report on the country. It's a platform.
FPTP* doing its wonderful thing again, this time in California.
* Technically SNTV as it's two past the post here, with one vote per elector.
* Technically SNTV as it's two past the post here, with one vote per elector.
Case in point for why top two jungle primary is terrible. It can produce perverse results and CA should repeal it. Unfortunately that'd take a constitutional amendment. But... the legislature can right now avoid the worst-case scenario simply by restoring write-in votes as an option in the general.
January 24, 2026 at 9:43 AM
FPTP* doing its wonderful thing again, this time in California.
* Technically SNTV as it's two past the post here, with one vote per elector.
* Technically SNTV as it's two past the post here, with one vote per elector.