Joni Askola
@joniaskola.bsky.social
22K followers 460 following 5.9K posts
Finnish PhD candidate and geopolitical analyst. Trying to help Ukraine with the 69th Sniffing Brigade https://buymeacoffee.com/joni_askola
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joniaskola.bsky.social
The war seems to be entering a new phase
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/5 The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a new phase.

Frontline movements may soon matter less to the war’s future than long-range strikes.

A race to force the other side to give up has begun.

Russia started long ago. Ukraine is finally catching up
joniaskola.bsky.social
Europe is not ready
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/8 Russia has recovered and adapted militarily.

Most of Europe is still preparing to fight the Russia of 2022.

It is now 2025, and today's Russia is a different type of threat.

We are not ready
Reposted by Joni Askola
joniaskola.bsky.social
My new video "Is Trump’s ICE America’s Gestapo?" is out on YouTube.

Watch it and let me know what you think👇
youtu.be/yvoFBp0yQ00?...
Is Trump’s ICE America’s Gestapo?
YouTube video by Joni Askola
youtu.be
joniaskola.bsky.social
Ukraine will continue to plan and execute daring operations as long as the war continues
joniaskola.bsky.social
It’s reassuring to know that as I write this, Ukraine is preparing several operations that will blow your mind, just like Spiderweb did
joniaskola.bsky.social
Insanely high officer losses for Russia
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/5 If Putin's goal was to get as many Russians killed as possible without achieving anything, then he has succeeded.

This war is a disaster. The numbers speak for themselves
joniaskola.bsky.social
Putin does not want you to see this!
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/7 Why is Ukraine still winning and Russia still losing the war?

This thread lists a few key facts that Putin would prefer you forget
Reposted by Joni Askola
kyivindependent.com
Momentum is building to use Russia’s frozen central bank reserves to fund Ukraine's war effort. The recent proposal, distributed to EU ambassadors in September and seen by the Kyiv Independent, outlines an innovative legal and financial plan to lend €140 billion of the frozen assets to Ukraine.
The EU's ambitious plan for frozen Russian assets, explained
Momentum is building to tap more of Russia’s central bank reserves — immobilized after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine — to help fund Kyiv's war effort. As the U.S. moved to wash its hands of Ukra...
kyivindependent.com
joniaskola.bsky.social
5/5 The war is shifting.

Long-range strikes may now shape its outcome more than trench lines.

Ukraine must be supported in this phase: militarily, financially, and strategically.

Europe must act and finally seize Russia’s frozen assets. Help Ukraine win!
joniaskola.bsky.social
4/5 Ukraine needs to strike the Yelabuga drone factory.

Reducing Russia’s ability to launch cheap, long‑range attacks is essential.

Oil refineries and other defense‑production sites also need to be hit.

The direction is right, but there is still a lot of work ahead
joniaskola.bsky.social
3/5 Ukraine’s drone and missile production is its strongest card to accelerate the end of the war.

Let’s hope it is wisely organized: underground, abroad, and/or in hardened facilities
joniaskola.bsky.social
2/5 Russia understands the stakes. Its leadership will do everything it can to cripple Ukraine’s drone and missile production.

General Gerasimov has openly said this is now a priority.

Ukraine likely has similar plans for Russia’s production
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/5 The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a new phase.

Frontline movements may soon matter less to the war’s future than long-range strikes.

A race to force the other side to give up has begun.

Russia started long ago. Ukraine is finally catching up
joniaskola.bsky.social
(I obviously have no clue about what operations Ukraine is planning. It's just a fact that Ukraine has already planned and executed many, and will continue to do so as long as the war continues)
joniaskola.bsky.social
My new video "Is Trump’s ICE America’s Gestapo?" is out on YouTube.

Watch it and let me know what you think👇
youtu.be/yvoFBp0yQ00?...
Is Trump’s ICE America’s Gestapo?
YouTube video by Joni Askola
youtu.be
joniaskola.bsky.social
8/8 We must seize Russia’s frozen assets to fund Ukraine’s survival.
This is not just about Ukraine.

It is about defending Europe from a more dangerous, more capable, and more determined Russia.

We need to act, and do more than we are doing now
joniaskola.bsky.social
7/8 Europe must stop underestimating this threat.

We need to help Ukraine more, and prepare ourselves at the same time.

That means investing more in defense, building resilience, and adapting to the future of warfare
joniaskola.bsky.social
6/8 Russia’s support from Iran, North Korea, and China is much stronger than before.

It is not fully isolated. It is evolving, managing to recruit enough men, and preparing for long-term confrontation with the West
joniaskola.bsky.social
5/8 Russian junior commanders have more autonomy.

Its forces are more flexible and responsive.

Meanwhile, Europe is still debating whether to send Ukraine basic military aid.

The gap is growing, and it is dangerous
joniaskola.bsky.social
4/8 As @massdara.bsky.social noted, behind this shift is a wartime tech ecosystem.

Russia has fused defense firms, startups, and universities into a machine built for speed and innovation.

It now produces faster, cheaper, and more lethal systems
joniaskola.bsky.social
3/8 Russia’s military has evolved. Unmanned warfare is now central to its strategy.

Drones are no longer secondary tools.

Most of Europe still treats them that way
joniaskola.bsky.social
2/8 Russia is economically and demographically weaker than in 2022.

However, it is also more reckless, more willing to escalate, and better adapted to modern warfare.

It has learned from some of its failures. Europe’s peacetime armies have not
joniaskola.bsky.social
1/8 Russia has recovered and adapted militarily.

Most of Europe is still preparing to fight the Russia of 2022.

It is now 2025, and today's Russia is a different type of threat.

We are not ready
joniaskola.bsky.social
It’s reassuring to know that as I write this, Ukraine is preparing several operations that will blow your mind, just like Spiderweb did