Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
PRC and DPRK strategic forces analyst with CNA. BA Reed College, MA Middlebury Institute. NSF GRFP.
Three possibilities, possibly overlapping, none of them good for China's ability to fight:
A) the PLA is so ludicrously corrupt that basically everyone above a certain rank is either involved or knows about it and is compromised by it
A) the PLA is so ludicrously corrupt that basically everyone above a certain rank is either involved or knows about it and is compromised by it
January 24, 2026 at 3:57 PM
Three possibilities, possibly overlapping, none of them good for China's ability to fight:
A) the PLA is so ludicrously corrupt that basically everyone above a certain rank is either involved or knows about it and is compromised by it
A) the PLA is so ludicrously corrupt that basically everyone above a certain rank is either involved or knows about it and is compromised by it
No, Reddit automatically scrubs that data. And the sub was almost certainly in port at the time.
It has been [ 0 ] days since confidential military intel was posted on the WarThund-- wait no, Crusader Kings forums???
(dude posted a photo of his laptop playing CK3 on a nuclear submarine, but didn't scrub the location data, so now Reddit knows where the sub is deployed)
(dude posted a photo of his laptop playing CK3 on a nuclear submarine, but didn't scrub the location data, so now Reddit knows where the sub is deployed)
January 24, 2026 at 2:01 PM
No, Reddit automatically scrubs that data. And the sub was almost certainly in port at the time.
Reading a book, originally written in Russian, that uses Chinese words regularly, but A) the Russian author clearly did not speak Chinese and B) there are no tones.
So an already borderline unintelligible experience becomes truely unintelligible.
So an already borderline unintelligible experience becomes truely unintelligible.
January 20, 2026 at 3:08 AM
Reading a book, originally written in Russian, that uses Chinese words regularly, but A) the Russian author clearly did not speak Chinese and B) there are no tones.
So an already borderline unintelligible experience becomes truely unintelligible.
So an already borderline unintelligible experience becomes truely unintelligible.
This is oughtslop. You only like it because its what ought to be.
January 17, 2026 at 9:51 PM
This is oughtslop. You only like it because its what ought to be.
Some thoughts on the recent Oreshnik madness:
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
More Oreshnik Madness
Russia has used Oreshnik again, this time against some sort of target outside Lviv.
open.substack.com
January 10, 2026 at 12:02 AM
Some thoughts on the recent Oreshnik madness:
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
Theres a lot of talk about Oreshnik being a "psychological weapon." This is, I think, an oversimplification - its true that Oreshnik has some operational limitations. I would argue that those limitations are not all that different than other conventional ballistic missiles.
January 8, 2026 at 11:44 PM
Theres a lot of talk about Oreshnik being a "psychological weapon." This is, I think, an oversimplification - its true that Oreshnik has some operational limitations. I would argue that those limitations are not all that different than other conventional ballistic missiles.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
Seeing potentially credible reports and videos of a new Oreshnik launch against Ukraine tonight.
January 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM
Seeing potentially credible reports and videos of a new Oreshnik launch against Ukraine tonight.
My latest in Foriegn Policy, where I pour cold water on normative arguments with the technical reality.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/v...
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/v...
The Real Reason China and Russia Won’t Try a Maduro-Style Raid
U.S. rivals aren’t deterred by norms so much as by the limits of their own militaries.
foreignpolicy.com
January 6, 2026 at 7:36 PM
My latest in Foriegn Policy, where I pour cold water on normative arguments with the technical reality.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/v...
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/v...
Trying to commit to reading 3-4 books a month. Here is January's reading stack.
January 4, 2026 at 12:37 AM
Trying to commit to reading 3-4 books a month. Here is January's reading stack.
[black SUVs pull up to a ski chalet in Vermont]
"You're a hard man to find...Mr. Bremer."
"Apparently not hard enough."
"We need you. One last job."
"You're a hard man to find...Mr. Bremer."
"Apparently not hard enough."
"We need you. One last job."
January 3, 2026 at 5:28 PM
[black SUVs pull up to a ski chalet in Vermont]
"You're a hard man to find...Mr. Bremer."
"Apparently not hard enough."
"We need you. One last job."
"You're a hard man to find...Mr. Bremer."
"Apparently not hard enough."
"We need you. One last job."
What is a "black swan" military performance? That doesn't make any sense.
Which was a correct assessment barring a complete black swan performance by the TDF. No reasonable analyst could have predicted the Pryluky TDF stopping 1st Tank Regiment cold at Perevolochna and that's basically the only thing that kept the Russians from breaking through to the Dnieper.
January 3, 2026 at 3:28 PM
What is a "black swan" military performance? That doesn't make any sense.
Reposted by Decker Eveleth
putin is already pretty unconstrained in ukraine (the people saying "zelensky is next" seem unaware russia has tried to kill him many times). the bigger danger is it emboldens putin to step up sabotage and hybrid warfare in europe
January 3, 2026 at 3:22 PM
putin is already pretty unconstrained in ukraine (the people saying "zelensky is next" seem unaware russia has tried to kill him many times). the bigger danger is it emboldens putin to step up sabotage and hybrid warfare in europe
Funniest tweet of the year so far.
January 3, 2026 at 2:58 PM
Funniest tweet of the year so far.
Yemen, Iran, and now Venezuela, without a single aviation casualty. That's really amazing.
January 3, 2026 at 2:53 PM
Yemen, Iran, and now Venezuela, without a single aviation casualty. That's really amazing.
A federal judge waking up, checking his email, and seeing the Maduro arraignment on his schedule
a man in a chef 's hat is looking at a piece of paper
ALT: a man in a chef 's hat is looking at a piece of paper
media.tenor.com
January 3, 2026 at 2:52 PM
A federal judge waking up, checking his email, and seeing the Maduro arraignment on his schedule
I am going to caution against people assuming that he must have been turned over by the Venezuelan military - much too early to tell. Lack of anti-air fire can be explained by lack of readiness/competence and US SEAD/DEAD.
January 3, 2026 at 2:51 PM
I am going to caution against people assuming that he must have been turned over by the Venezuelan military - much too early to tell. Lack of anti-air fire can be explained by lack of readiness/competence and US SEAD/DEAD.
We have identified what is likely the first technical support area in Belarus for the Oreshnik missile.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Exclusive: Russia likely placing new hypersonic missiles at former airbase in Belarus, researchers find
Moscow is likely stationing new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a development that could bolster Russia’s ability to deliver missiles across Europ...
www.reuters.com
December 27, 2025 at 4:36 PM
We have identified what is likely the first technical support area in Belarus for the Oreshnik missile.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Some very brief thoughts on the Navy force design discussion: "But I think as a whole the direction the US Navy’s force design is going is defensible if you understand how these pieces go together." open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
Thoughts on the Future Fleet
I had meant to write this post weeks ago when the news of the Constellation class’ cancellation (say that five times fast) broke.
open.substack.com
December 23, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Some very brief thoughts on the Navy force design discussion: "But I think as a whole the direction the US Navy’s force design is going is defensible if you understand how these pieces go together." open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
I've been listening a lot to Rush's "Between the Wheels" from their hit 1984 album Grace Under Pressure, a song that compares suffering though the modern media environment's constant drumbeat of news to being a rabbit getting hit by a car
December 23, 2025 at 12:49 AM
I've been listening a lot to Rush's "Between the Wheels" from their hit 1984 album Grace Under Pressure, a song that compares suffering though the modern media environment's constant drumbeat of news to being a rabbit getting hit by a car
Swen is correct to make fun of you.
December 17, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Swen is correct to make fun of you.
Every year that goes by Todd Howard looks more and more like an Italian banking executive
December 12, 2025 at 3:46 AM
Every year that goes by Todd Howard looks more and more like an Italian banking executive
Why is this still going. Some of us have bedtimes
December 12, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Why is this still going. Some of us have bedtimes
YEEEEEESSSSSSS
Ace Combat 8: Wings of Theve announcement trailer www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQYx...
ACE COMBAT 8: WINGS OF THEVE Announcement Trailer
YouTube video by Bandai Namco Entertainment America
www.youtube.com
December 12, 2025 at 3:35 AM
YEEEEEESSSSSSS
I'm glad that Space King exists as it causes the 10% of the Warhammer 40k community with the worst opinions to self label themselves so I can more efficiently ignore their opinions.
December 11, 2025 at 5:00 PM
I'm glad that Space King exists as it causes the 10% of the Warhammer 40k community with the worst opinions to self label themselves so I can more efficiently ignore their opinions.