David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
Professor of European Politics, Queen's University Belfast. EU politics, treaty reform, enlargement, Brexit/Protocol/Windsor Framework
Political science
88%
Economics
4%
There’s also a major procedural issue
Each accession treaty needs to be ‘submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements.’
Domestic parliamentary (at least) approval needed in all existing member and acceding states.
Each accession treaty needs to be ‘submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements.’
Domestic parliamentary (at least) approval needed in all existing member and acceding states.
Fast-tracking Ukraine: why Europe is wary of bending rules for EU entry
Behind public words of support, national governments have concerns such as corruption, the impact on agriculture and freedom of movement
www.irishtimes.com
“Multiple current and former Brussels-based diplomats… as well as senior political figures… involved in the 2004 enlargement of the bloc, say a timeline where Ukraine joined in the next two or three years is unworkable, both politically and practically.’
Indeed…
www.irishtimes.com/world/europe...
Indeed…
www.irishtimes.com/world/europe...
Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth
Post-Brexit sales of British farm products to EU fall by 37%
NFU warn it could take years to restore Brexit losses despite efforts to smooth negotiations on farming and other elements of UK-EU reset
www.theguardian.com
‘“Simply reducing friction doesn’t mean we are going to get the EU market back again. There aren’t empty spaces on the shelves with a label saying ‘waiting for British products’.”
‘In other words, it could take years to restore Brexit losses.’
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
‘In other words, it could take years to restore Brexit losses.’
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
The Northern Irish Assembly has Formally Granted ‘Democratic consent’ to the Windsor Framework. What Does This Mean?
The lack of a cross-community majority means the next ‘democratic consent’ vote will be in 2028.
politicalquarterly.org.uk
Digest version of recent piece for Political Quarterly.l
MLAs will come back for second ‘Democratic Consent’ vote in 2028
Context then to include impact of UK-EU reset (potential reduction of frictions on ‘Irish Sea border’)… and next NI Assembly
politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/the-nor...
MLAs will come back for second ‘Democratic Consent’ vote in 2028
Context then to include impact of UK-EU reset (potential reduction of frictions on ‘Irish Sea border’)… and next NI Assembly
politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/the-nor...
EU looks to rekindle ties with Turkey as a critical partner in Ukraine
With Ankara likely to play a key role in a post-war Ukraine, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos is traveling to Turkey to revive relations.
www.politico.eu
“Restarting EU membership negotiations is not in the EU's thinking just yet. Still, Kos said that "we need to look with fresh eyes at our relations… My visit... is about rebuilding trust and exploring how we can make our economic relationship work better."
www.politico.eu/article/eu-l...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-l...
Can Greenland join the EU? - UK in a changing Europe
Catherine Barnard and Denzil Davidson look at the legal process Greenland would have to follow if it were to decide to try and rejoin the EU, as well as the potential political obstacles.
ukandeu.ac.uk
“Can Greenland join the EU? Since it is not a ‘state’ it cannot formally join under the general accession process under Article 49 TEU. However, it can move from OCT to OR status, meaning that it would again become part of the EU”
ukandeu.ac.uk/can-greenlan...
ukandeu.ac.uk/can-greenlan...
EU has 'open mind' on UK customs union debate, says commissioner
Valdis Dombrovskis says the EU is willing to engage with Britain amid mounting global uncertainty.
www.bbc.co.uk
‘The single market relies on a country accepting "the four freedoms": freedom of movement, goods, services and capital.’
Clumsy BBC definition of the single market
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Clumsy BBC definition of the single market
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
‘The PM told hacks “we can go further” in aligning with the EU single market where “in our national interest.” He added: “There are other areas in the single market where we should look to see whether we can’t make more progress.”’
www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...
www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...
Reposted by Steve Peers, Simon Usherwood
Trump’s ambitions in Greenland push Iceland closer to the EU | Euractiv
Concerns over US intentions and regional security are nudging Reykjavik towards Brussels
www.euractiv.com
"As security concerns rise and reliance on Washington comes under scrutiny, EU membership is increasingly discussed in Reykjavik not as an economic choice, but as a question of long-term defence and geopolitical alignment."
Hardly suprising
www.euractiv.com/news/trumps-...
Hardly suprising
www.euractiv.com/news/trumps-...
EU ‘membership-lite’ plan for Ukraine spooks European capitals
Reforms under discussion would tear up accession rules used since cold war to allow Kyiv to join in a potential peace deal
www.ft.com
Bottom line is that formally expanding the membership of the EU in any way requires unanimity among the member states *and* ratification of the associated accession treaty by each member state. On which...
www.ft.com/content/a42e...
www.ft.com/content/a42e...
EU demands ‘Farage clause’ as part of Brexit reset talks with Britain
Reform UK leader vows to overturn any insurance deal with Brussels, saying such a move would be a ‘democratic outrage’
www.ft.com
Note too that any new SPS arrangements will be EU-GB… existing arrangements for Northern Ireland will remain in place and not be superseded
www.ft.com/content/3733...
www.ft.com/content/3733...
New year, same old Brexit trade-offs - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland argues that while the UK has indicated that it is keen to align more closely with the EU, the inherent tradeoffs remain the same as the EU will not allow the UK to 'cherry pick' further ac...
ukandeu.ac.uk
“There is little chance of Brussels allowing the UK to ‘cherry pick’ further access to the single market sector-by-sector, in the manner Starmer laid out. His proposal sounds like yet another case of Brexit wishful thinking from a UK [PM].” - @jreland.bsky.social
ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...
ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...
Ukraine’s European allies pushed to make binding promises on ceasefire force
Also in this newsletter: France’s first lady beats the trolls in court
giftarticle.ft.com
“Kyiv insists that a firm date for its EU accession be included in the peace agreement, but EU diplomats are pushing to water down any binding commitments or propose some form of membership that does not immediately entail all the benefits”
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
'the single market — the EU would be highly sceptical of such a move'
Reposted by Colin Harvey
Starmer may want closer ties with the EU — but will Brussels play ball?
The PM is trying to reassure pro-Europeans in Labour that a reset is coming, but EU officials say the timing is poor
www.ft.com
'Starmer’s allies admit that persuading Brussels to give the UK preferential access to the single market will be difficult.
'In Brussels there was a sense of déjà vu amid warnings that — as with... Boris Johnson’s failed attempts to “cherry pick” access to...
www.ft.com/content/0808...
'In Brussels there was a sense of déjà vu amid warnings that — as with... Boris Johnson’s failed attempts to “cherry pick” access to...
www.ft.com/content/0808...
UK should seek ‘closer alignment’ with EU single market, Starmer says
Prime minister vows he will stay in Number 10 even as Labour party sinks in opinion polls
giftarticle.ft.com
Starmer: “I think we should get closer and if it’s in our national interest, in our interest, to have even closer alignment with the single market, then we should consider that, we should go that far”
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Extraordinary files show Boris Johnson’s chief Brexit negotiator must have known it wouldn’t be easy for Northern Ireland
At the height of post-Brexit hostilities between London and Dublin, Boris Johnson’s confrontational “point man” was David Frost.
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk
“All of this demonstrates… how well informed the UK government system was about Ireland in the years prior to the EU referendum.
“The scale of the complacency and ineptitude which were to follow will be marvelled upon by historians.”
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/comm...
“The scale of the complacency and ineptitude which were to follow will be marvelled upon by historians.”
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/comm...
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
· Dec 23
Full report: www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2025/12...
Reposted by Steve Peers
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
· Dec 23
UK exporters increasingly dissatisfied with EU trade terms, survey finds
More than half of those contacted by British Chambers of Commerce criticised the post Brexit arrangements
www.ft.com
Some 53% of UK exporters told the [BCC] that the trade deal with Europe was unsatisfactory — a 13 percentage point increase from 2024.
“By contrast, just 16% of nearly 900 exporters surveyed in October said the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement… was working well.”
www.ft.com/content/b3d3...
“By contrast, just 16% of nearly 900 exporters surveyed in October said the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement… was working well.”
www.ft.com/content/b3d3...
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
· Dec 17
Joint statement confirmed negotiations concluded on UK's association to Erasmus+ in 2027
Also shared aim to conclude negotiations on Youth Experience Scheme, common SPS Area and linking of ETS schemes by next [annual] EU-UK summit... although no date for this
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
Also shared aim to conclude negotiations on Youth Experience Scheme, common SPS Area and linking of ETS schemes by next [annual] EU-UK summit... although no date for this
ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
· Dec 16
Unionists hit out as Government accepts Windsor Framework review recommendations and business organisations hail ‘positive’ step
Unionist parties have criticised the Government’s decision to accept recommendations from a review into the Windsor Framework post-Brexit arrangements.
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk
“[Unionist] criticism comes despite ministers in London hailing the move as a major step forward and local business bodies including the NI Chamber and Horticultural Trades Association welcoming the development”
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/bre...
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/bre...
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
· Dec 16
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
Exclusive: British students will be able to participate in EU-wide scheme from January 2027, sources say
www.theguardian.com
"agreement to rejoin Erasmus... expected to be announced on Wednesday
Also:
'Government sources... [PM] is pursuing an “iterative” process with the EU and that at the next annual reset summit, expected in the spring, there will be fresh issues on the table'
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
Also:
'Government sources... [PM] is pursuing an “iterative” process with the EU and that at the next annual reset summit, expected in the spring, there will be fresh issues on the table'
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
· Dec 16
On the Windsor Framework and the NI Assembly's 2024 Democratic Consent vote...
With @politicalquarterly.bsky.social
Open access via:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
With @politicalquarterly.bsky.social
Open access via:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Articles 5-10 of the Windsor Framework.
Only a simple majority of MLAs supported consent.
The absence of 'cross-community' consent triggered the review.
Democratic consent next needed in 2028.
More on the Democratic Consent vote and Lord Murphy's review 👇
bsky.app/profile/dphi...
Only a simple majority of MLAs supported consent.
The absence of 'cross-community' consent triggered the review.
Democratic consent next needed in 2028.
More on the Democratic Consent vote and Lord Murphy's review 👇
bsky.app/profile/dphi...
Reposted by Steve Peers
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
· Dec 16
UK Government response to Lord Murphy's Independent Review of the Windsor Framework published
All 16 recommendations accepted.
The Independent Review followed the NI Assembly's vote in December 2024 on granting 'Democratic Consent' to the continued application of...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
All 16 recommendations accepted.
The Independent Review followed the NI Assembly's vote in December 2024 on granting 'Democratic Consent' to the continued application of...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social
· Dec 12
Ukraine would join EU next year under draft peace plan
Move backed by Brussels would transform the bloc’s approach to admitting new members
www.ft.com
“Any decision to admit a new member would have to be backed by all of the EU’s 27 national governments.”
And the European Parliament
And be ratified by each of the EU(27).
In France, default requirement is ratification by referendum
www.ft.com/content/e504...
And the European Parliament
And be ratified by each of the EU(27).
In France, default requirement is ratification by referendum
www.ft.com/content/e504...