David Phinnemore
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dphinnemore.bsky.social
David Phinnemore
@dphinnemore.bsky.social

Professor of European Politics, Queen's University Belfast. EU politics, treaty reform, enlargement, Brexit/Protocol/Windsor Framework

Political science 88%
Economics 4%

“Restarting EU membership negotiations is not in the EU's thinking just yet. Still, Kos said that "we need to look with fresh eyes at our relations… My visit... is about rebuilding trust and exploring how we can make our economic relationship work better."

www.politico.eu/article/eu-l...
EU looks to rekindle ties with Turkey as a critical partner in Ukraine
With Ankara likely to play a key role in a post-war Ukraine, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos is traveling to Turkey to revive relations.
www.politico.eu

“Can Greenland join the EU? Since it is not a ‘state’ it cannot formally join under the general accession process under Article 49 TEU. However, it can move from OCT to OR status, meaning that it would again become part of the EU”

ukandeu.ac.uk/can-greenlan...
Can Greenland join the EU? - UK in a changing Europe
Catherine Barnard and Denzil Davidson look at the legal process Greenland would have to follow if it were to decide to try and rejoin the EU, as well as the potential political obstacles.
ukandeu.ac.uk

‘The single market relies on a country accepting "the four freedoms": freedom of movement, goods, services and capital.’

Clumsy BBC definition of the single market

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
EU has 'open mind' on UK customs union debate, says commissioner
Valdis Dombrovskis says the EU is willing to engage with Britain amid mounting global uncertainty.
www.bbc.co.uk

‘The PM told hacks “we can go further” in aligning with the EU single market where “in our national interest.” He added: “There are other areas in the single market where we should look to see whether we can’t make more progress.”’

www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...

EU-UK Partnership Council meeting same day

commission.europa.eu/document/dow...
EU-UK Joint Committee to meet 2 February

commission.europa.eu/document/dow...

"As security concerns rise and reliance on Washington comes under scrutiny, EU membership is increasingly discussed in Reykjavik not as an economic choice, but as a question of long-term defence and geopolitical alignment."

Hardly suprising

www.euractiv.com/news/trumps-...
Trump’s ambitions in Greenland push Iceland closer to the EU | Euractiv
Concerns over US intentions and regional security are nudging Reykjavik towards Brussels
www.euractiv.com

In France:

Bottom line is that formally expanding the membership of the EU in any way requires unanimity among the member states *and* ratification of the associated accession treaty by each member state. On which...
www.ft.com/content/a42e...
EU ‘membership-lite’ plan for Ukraine spooks European capitals
Reforms under discussion would tear up accession rules used since cold war to allow Kyiv to join in a potential peace deal
www.ft.com

Note too that any new SPS arrangements will be EU-GB… existing arrangements for Northern Ireland will remain in place and not be superseded

www.ft.com/content/3733...
EU demands ‘Farage clause’ as part of Brexit reset talks with Britain
Reform UK leader vows to overturn any insurance deal with Brussels, saying such a move would be a ‘democratic outrage’
www.ft.com

“There is little chance of Brussels allowing the UK to ‘cherry pick’ further access to the single market sector-by-sector, in the manner Starmer laid out. His proposal sounds like yet another case of Brexit wishful thinking from a UK [PM].” - @jreland.bsky.social

ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...
New year, same old Brexit trade-offs - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland argues that while the UK has indicated that it is keen to align more closely with the EU, the inherent tradeoffs remain the same as the EU will not allow the UK to 'cherry pick' further ac...
ukandeu.ac.uk

“Kyiv insists that a firm date for its EU accession be included in the peace agreement, but EU diplomats are pushing to water down any binding commitments or propose some form of membership that does not immediately entail all the benefits”

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Ukraine’s European allies pushed to make binding promises on ceasefire force
Also in this newsletter: France’s first lady beats the trolls in court
giftarticle.ft.com

'the single market — the EU would be highly sceptical of such a move'

Reposted by Colin Harvey

'Starmer’s allies admit that persuading Brussels to give the UK preferential access to the single market will be difficult.

'In Brussels there was a sense of déjà vu amid warnings that — as with... Boris Johnson’s failed attempts to “cherry pick” access to...

www.ft.com/content/0808...
Starmer may want closer ties with the EU — but will Brussels play ball?
The PM is trying to reassure pro-Europeans in Labour that a reset is coming, but EU officials say the timing is poor
www.ft.com

Starmer: “I think we should get closer and if it’s in our national interest, in our interest, to have even closer alignment with the single market, then we should consider that, we should go that far”

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
UK should seek ‘closer alignment’ with EU single market, Starmer says
Prime minister vows he will stay in Number 10 even as Labour party sinks in opinion polls
giftarticle.ft.com

“All of this demonstrates… how well informed the UK government system was about Ireland in the years prior to the EU referendum.

“The scale of the complacency and ineptitude which were to follow will be marvelled upon by historians.”
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/comm...
Extraordinary files show Boris Johnson’s chief Brexit negotiator must have known it wouldn’t be easy for Northern Ireland
At the height of post-Brexit hostilities between London and Dublin, Boris Johnson’s confrontational “point man” was David Frost.
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk

Reposted by Steve Peers

Some 53% of UK exporters told the [BCC] that the trade deal with Europe was unsatisfactory — a 13 percentage point increase from 2024.

“By contrast, just 16% of nearly 900 exporters surveyed in October said the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement… was working well.”
www.ft.com/content/b3d3...
UK exporters increasingly dissatisfied with EU trade terms, survey finds
More than half of those contacted by British Chambers of Commerce criticised the post Brexit arrangements
www.ft.com

Joint statement confirmed negotiations concluded on UK's association to Erasmus+ in 2027

Also shared aim to conclude negotiations on Youth Experience Scheme, common SPS Area and linking of ETS schemes by next [annual] EU-UK summit... although no date for this

ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
Let's go through the Eramus statement together

1/

ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

“[Unionist] criticism comes despite ministers in London hailing the move as a major step forward and local business bodies including the NI Chamber and Horticultural Trades Association welcoming the development”
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/bre...
Unionists hit out as Government accepts Windsor Framework review recommendations and business organisations hail ‘positive’ step
Unionist parties have criticised the Government’s decision to accept recommendations from a review into the Windsor Framework post-Brexit arrangements.
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk

"agreement to rejoin Erasmus... expected to be announced on Wednesday

Also:

'Government sources... [PM] is pursuing an “iterative” process with the EU and that at the next annual reset summit, expected in the spring, there will be fresh issues on the table'

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
Exclusive: British students will be able to participate in EU-wide scheme from January 2027, sources say
www.theguardian.com

Articles 5-10 of the Windsor Framework.

Only a simple majority of MLAs supported consent.

The absence of 'cross-community' consent triggered the review.

Democratic consent next needed in 2028.

More on the Democratic Consent vote and Lord Murphy's review 👇
bsky.app/profile/dphi...
On the Windsor Framework and the NI Assembly's 2024 Democratic Consent vote...

With @politicalquarterly.bsky.social

Open access via:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Reposted by Steve Peers

UK Government response to Lord Murphy's Independent Review of the Windsor Framework published

All 16 recommendations accepted.

The Independent Review followed the NI Assembly's vote in December 2024 on granting 'Democratic Consent' to the continued application of...

www.gov.uk/government/p...

“Any decision to admit a new member would have to be backed by all of the EU’s 27 national governments.”

And the European Parliament

And be ratified by each of the EU(27).

In France, default requirement is ratification by referendum

www.ft.com/content/e504...
Ukraine would join EU next year under draft peace plan
Move backed by Brussels would transform the bloc’s approach to admitting new members
www.ft.com

How has the UK managed the regulatory consequences of Brexit?

Delighted to see published with @bjpols.bsky.social latest article with my colleague Lisa Claire Whitten exploring the interaction with devolution and the Windsor Framework.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....

"rejoining the single market... cannot be sprung on the voters at the election. You have to spend the coming years making the case, perhaps preparing the European Commission and member states. Lest we forget, they have the actual say on this."

Drop the 'perhaps'.

www.ft.com/content/2d00...
A Brexit survival strategy that shows Starmer’s days are numbered
Labour will need a different leader if it pursues a policy of rejoining the EU customs union or single market
www.ft.com

“if you’ve just read all of [this] and have no clue what I’m talking about … you really shouldn’t be talking about customs unions.” - @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social

mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/customs-un...
Customs Union
What do you know? You know ...
mostfavourednation.substack.com

“I would strongly contest whether rejoining the customs union would either be quick or straightforward,” one cabinet source said.’

Wise source

www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
‘The only idea around’: will Labour return to a customs union with the EU?
The desperate search for economic growth is pushing the party to confront the issue that dare not speak its name
www.theguardian.com