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Reposted

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

Over to @danneidle.bsky.social for some thought-provoking remarks - 'Some of the proposals from economists such as a land value tax are good in principle but will never be introduced by politicians' - so they are in effect off the table

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

One consideration regarding raising #incometax is around maintaining credibility, thus likely lowering Govt borrowing costs through reduced perceived risk, so there is the possibility that we could land on the 'green line', argues
@edmundcornforth.bsky.social concluding his presentation

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

From a distributional point of view, all three options are regressive - and households in second bottom decile are hit hardest as they just over the allowance and start paying income tax

#VAT still the worse of the options, especially in the short run

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

As for the shock effects on real #GDP over time -

In the short run, #VAT has the largest immediate impact because of the large price effect. However, the shock dies down and is relatively temporary -

But #VAT would increase the rate of #inflation, #interestrates, and #unemployment

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

Whilst #incometax directly effects household’s real personal disposable income, which will hit their consumption expenditure, #VAT has both a demand and supply side impact, lowering real incomes and leading to a central bank response to reduce inflationary impact

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

Using our NiGEM model the analysis compares different tax options available to the Chancellor at the forthcoming Autumn Budget.

We assume that the government aims to raise total net annual revenue by £30 billion by 2029-30

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

And we are off, with our Director David Aikman introducing @edmundcornforth.bsky.social Edmund which starts his presentation by outlining the motivation of this analysis, outlining how tax options left as only feasible, reliable way to get back on track

National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

Don't forget you can still sign up to our #webinar on this very topic starting in just under one hour! ⏰

You will hear directly from the authors of the report as well as from tax expert @danneidle.bsky.social

Join us here 👇 or follow the live posting 🧵

niesr.ac.uk/event/taxing...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

The #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at what is driving the UK’s rise in gilt yields and how can they start to be brought down 📉

Read it here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/why-are...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 1d

⚡️NEW ANALYSIS OUT NOW ⚡️

Raising the rate of #incometax would be the least economically damaging option available to the #Chancellor at this time

Read more here ⬇️

#Budget2025
#ukeconomy
#FiscalPolicy

niesr.ac.uk/publications...

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econstevem.bsky.social @econstevem.bsky.social · 2d

At Wembley for the England v Wales friendly. Looking forward to a good evening’s entertainment 😀 @jagjitchadha.bsky.social @adrianpabst.bsky.social

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econstevem.bsky.social @econstevem.bsky.social · 2d

In Cambridge to see Level 42. Takes me all the way back to my teenage years. @jagjitchadha.bsky.social

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 4d

Webinar coming up 🔜📌

A Taxing Challenge: Assessing the #Chancellor’s Options Ahead of the Autumn #Budget

Join us this Friday 10th October at 11am online where we will present new analysis exploring the impact of different tax scenario

Sign up here👇

niesr.ac.uk/event/taxing...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 6d

#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman looks at whether reducing the OBR forecasts from two a year to just onw is a good idea or not

And...spoiler, he doesn’t think it is - Here is why ⬇️

niesr.ac.uk/blog/chancel...

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Sense about Science @senseaboutsci.bsky.social · 9d

📢 We're calling for the protection and strengthening of the UK’s independent statistical system. Read our joint letter @royalstatsoc.bsky.social, @resmedia.bsky.social @niesrorg.bsky.social to Simon Hoare MP, Chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee.

Sense about Science joins call to safeguard independence of UK’s statistical system - Sense about Science

Sense about Science has joined the Royal Statistical Society (RSS), the Royal Economic Society and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in writing to Simon Hoare MP, Chair of the…

senseaboutscience.org

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 8d

#WeekendReading 🔖The Dollar Effect💵

In our latest #MondayInterview, @brandeisuniversity.bsky.social
's Stephen Cecchetti outlines the specific ways the UK’s #financial system is reliant on US infrastructure and the #dollar’s central role 🔽

The Dollar Effect - NIESR

The underpinning of the global financial system by the US dollar creates a critical reliance that extends to the UK economy. This post examines this dependency, including global trade and domestic…

niesr.ac.uk

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 8d

The #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at whether reducing the #OBR forecasts from two a year to just one is a good idea or not.

And... spoiler, he doesn’t think it is - Here is why ⬇️

niesr.ac.uk/blog/chancel...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 9d

🚨NEW REPORT PUBLISHED 🚨

'From systems failure to systems change'

How youth-led service commissioning can lead to systems change and enhance access to secure #employment for neurodiverse #youngpeople

Thanks to the #YouthFutureFoundation for funding it

Read more here👇

niesr.ac.uk/publications...

Creating Systems Change via Youth-Led Commissioning - NIESR

Funded by the Youth Futures Foundation, the Connected Futures (CF) Partnership in the East Midlands Combined County Authority (EMCCA) was established to address the barriers to employment faced by you...

niesr.ac.uk

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 7d

#WeekendReading 🔖 The latest #MondayInterview by our Edoardo Masset drew on his research recently published in @Nature.com explaining what Water, Sanitation and Hygiene interventions are, and how to prioritise them for maximum impact 💦

Read more here⬇️

niesr.ac.uk/blog/water-s...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 7d

#WeekendReading 🔖 'From systems failure to systems change'

Our latest report on how youth-led service commissioning can lead to systems change and enhance access to secure #employment for neurodiverse #youngpeople 👇

@thesra.bsky.social

niesr.ac.uk/publications...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 6d

#WeekendReading🔖 "There is a need to rethink our approach to #skills and #education so that we can better align the education system to the demands of real-world jobs", writes our Larissa Marioni👇

#Productivity
#SkillsMismatch
#UKeconomy

niesr.ac.uk/news/mismatc...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 5d

Our Ben Caswell writes in today's @thetimes.com about the pensions #triplelock, why has become unsustainable for the UK public finances, and how to modify it going forward 🔒🔒🔓

Read it here 👉 www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 5d

The first 'CfM-NIESR survey' is out now ⚡

We asked the panel members to provide their thoughts on the reasons the UK borrowing costs are so high, and the extent to which these costs should be considered in the upcoming #Budget 👇

www.cfmsurvey.org/listsurveys/...

Why Are UK Government Borrowing Costs So High?

Experts responding to the CfM-NIESR survey reveal the main factors driving the UK's high borrowing costs. They agree it is inflation expectations and fiscal sustainability concerns.

www.cfmsurvey.org

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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 5d

CfM @niesrorg.bsky.social survey (includes me): Why are UK Government Borrowing Costs So High?

Panel was quite clear that the causes of the high UK borrowing costs can be attributed to a combination of inflation expectations and concerns about fiscal sustainability
www.cfmsurvey.org/listsurveys/...

Why Are UK Government Borrowing Costs So High?

Experts responding to the CfM-NIESR survey reveal the main factors driving the UK's high borrowing costs. They agree it is inflation expectations and fiscal sustainability concerns.

www.cfmsurvey.org

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 5d

How green investment impacts #productivity? What are the nature-related risks to GDP and financial stability?

In our latest #MondayInterview, just published, our @edmundcornforth.bsky.social Edmund & Lea De Greef explore how to manage the economic transition to #NetZero

niesr.ac.uk/blog/managin...

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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 10d

How can the case for halting active QT be framed, and what the consequences would be?

Our Director David Aikman offers some insights in this #blog ⬇️

#MonetaryPolicy
#FiscalPolicy
#UKeconomy
niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-ne...

What next for Quantitative Tightening? - NIESR

What is QT? QT or Quantitative Tightening is the process by which central banks like the Bank of England unwind the extraordinary amount of money they injected into the economy in recent years to c...

niesr.ac.uk

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