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econstevem.bsky.social
@econstevem.bsky.social
56 followers 49 following 79 posts
Deputy Director for Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting at NIESR. Enjoy watching cricket and playing the piano. Using Bluesky in a personal capacity.
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
#Chancellor, fix the roof!🏚️

"We need to call time on fiscal wishful thinking.

The sun may not be shining, but it’s still the moment to fix the roof – before the next storm hits" 🌦️🌩️

Ahead of the #Budget our Director's piece for Comment Central is a must read 👇
The sun might not be shining, but it’s time to fix the roof
Within the space of a week, the Chancellor has delivered a pre-Budget signal, rowed back from it, and left the impression of a government unsure of its fiscal bearings. One could be forgiven for…
commentcentral.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
*NEW* pre-#Budget video with our Deputy Director @econstevem.bsky.social

What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?

Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥

#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
November 23, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Reposted
productivity.bsky.social
#Budget day is on Wednesday - does the UK need to invest more money in the NHS? @teraallas.bsky.social provides her expertise on the latest Productivity Puzzles ep.: podfollow.com/productivity...
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
I think this broad idea that we need to spend more on the NHS is misleading and is potentially quite dangerous ... I think it's about the mix of how we spend the money, not adding more money.
November 24, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from explores explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’

niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
November 23, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
The UK bond market is highly sensitive as it approaches next week’s #Budget. This blog explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’.

niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
November 21, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
"We need to call time on fiscal wishful thinking.

What’s needed in the #AutumnBudget is a credible plan to reduce #debt – not just over this Parliament but over the decade ahead."

Our Director David Aikman's latest piece for Comment Central is out now!

commentcentral.co.uk/the-sun-migh...
The sun might not be shining, but it’s time to fix the roof
Within the space of a week, the Chancellor has delivered a pre-Budget signal, rowed back from it, and left the impression of a government unsure of its fiscal bearings. One could be forgiven for feel...
commentcentral.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
#WeekendReading🔖 Forget MAGA... what matters in the UK is MOBA!

*Make the OBR Boring Again*

Our Director David Aikman explains why in his latest piece for @cityam.bsky.social
👇👇👇
Make the OBR boring again
The OBR should be independent, trusted and uncontroversial - so it needs a rules-based framework in which to operate, otherwise it will continue to come under attack
www.cityam.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
#WeekendWatching🔖 Our pre-#Budget video with Director David Aikman outlining where the actual issues lie, how to address the fiscal gap in the public finances, and the role of #fiscalrules ⬇️🎥

#Budget #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
November 22, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Reposted
productivity.bsky.social
For an in-depth Budget discussion, listen to the latest ep. of Productivity Puzzles, w/ @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social) & Louise Hellem (CBI): www.productivity.ac.uk/podcast/will...

#Budget #Budget2025 #Productivity #Policy #Podcast
Will We Get a Productive Budget? - The Productivity Institute
Does the Budget really matter for productivity? And how does productivity shape the Budget?
www.productivity.ac.uk
November 21, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
#WeekendReading🔖 What is fiscal sustainability? How to define it?

And what can the #Chancellor do in the upcoming #Budget to achieve it?

Our latest #MondayInterview by @econstevem.bsky.social tries to provide some answers👇

#FiscalPolicy #Budget2025

niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-ar...
November 22, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Reposted
productivity.bsky.social
Does increasing growth in the long run mean making politically difficult decisions in the short term? podfollow.com/productivity...

This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
November 20, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
*NEW* pre-#Budget video with our Deputy Director @econstevem.bsky.social

What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?

Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥

#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
@resmedia.bsky.social
November 20, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
🚨OUT NOW🚨 Our latest #CPI Tracker suggests that, despite the expected fall today, #inflation will remain above 3% over the next 6 months 📈

Here is why 👇

niesr.ac.uk/publications...
November 19, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
What to make of today's #inflation figures? They suggest a mixed picture...

Our Huw Dixon digs deep into the numbers and provide some insights in his #blog, just published
👇👇

@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/inflati...
November 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Reposted
productivity.bsky.social
Reducing uncertainty should be a core aim of next week's Budget. @econstevem.bsky.social from @niesrorg.bsky.social is on the latest ep. of Productivity Puzzles, w/ @bartvanark.bsky.social, Louise Hellem (CBI) & @teraallas.bsky.social from @alliancembs.bsky.social: podfollow.com/productivity...
We are very much hoping that this forthcoming Budget can actually reduce the amount of uncertainty that we've seen of late.
November 19, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
"We can, and should, have two #OBR forecasts a year but one #Budget"

The way to avoid short-termism is not to silence the OBR but to build more headroom into the fiscal rules"

Our Director David Aikman's letter in the @financialtimes.com today is worth a read 📨👇

www.ft.com/content/dcf9...
Letter: The OBR’s problem is not a lack of transparency
From David Aikman, Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London SW1, UK
www.ft.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
⚡️Latest forecast paints a gloomy picture for #inflation well into 2026 📈

Ahead of tomorrow's latest ONS monthly data on inflation read our Huw Dixon's blog 👇

#UKeconomy
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/latest-...
November 18, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
⚡️Our reaction to the latest #inflation figures is out now⚡️

#UKeconomy
#InterestRates
@resmedia.bsky.social
November 19, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Reposted
econstevem.bsky.social
With the budget happening next week, I was able to discuss the links between the budget and productivity on this podcast hosted by @bartvanark.bsky.social together with the excellent @teraallas.bsky.social and Louise Hellem. Well worth a listen! @niesrorg.bsky.social @jagjitchadha.bsky.social
November 18, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
What is fiscal sustainability? How to define it?

And what the #Chancellor do in the upcoming #Budget to achieve it?

Read our latest #MondayInterview by @econstevem.bsky.social , just published 👇

#FiscalPolicy #UKeconomy
@resmedia.bsky.social

niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-ar...
November 17, 2025 at 10:51 AM
econstevem.bsky.social
And here's another quote of mine from the productivity puzzles podcast.
This is a quote of mine from the productivity puzzles podcast: The Chancellor will need to raise quite a bit of money. The most efficient way of doing that is to raise income tax. We found in our analysis that rises in income tax over the medium to longer term do not have such a negative impact on GDP.
November 18, 2025 at 11:39 AM
econstevem.bsky.social
Here's a quote from the productivity puzzles podcast.
A quote of mine from the 'Productivity Puzzles' podcast: We are very much hoping that this forthcoming Budget can actually reduce the amount of uncertainty that we've seen of late.
November 18, 2025 at 11:37 AM
econstevem.bsky.social
With the budget happening next week, I was able to discuss the links between the budget and productivity on this podcast hosted by @bartvanark.bsky.social together with the excellent @teraallas.bsky.social and Louise Hellem. Well worth a listen! @niesrorg.bsky.social @jagjitchadha.bsky.social
November 18, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Reposted
productivity.bsky.social
Budget day is just around the corner, but will it be a productive Budget? 🧩 On this new episode of Productivity Puzzles, @bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social, Louise Hellem & @econstevem.bsky.social: podfollow.com/productivity...
#Budget #productivity #podcast
Productivity Puzzles: Will We Get a Productive Budget?
The Chancellor’s Budget is on the horizon. Will it bring higher taxes, deeper cuts, or more borrowing? Does the Budget really matter for productivity? And how does productivity shape the Budget? ...
podfollow.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Reposted
niesrorg.bsky.social
What new information are we receiving through the
@bankofengland.bsky.social latest innovation to their #MPC communication? In this week's #DirectorsView blog, David explores some of the implications of the MPC member views' section:

niesr.ac.uk/blog/whats-m...
November 14, 2025 at 1:15 PM