@econstevem.bsky.social
Deputy Director for Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting at NIESR. Enjoy watching cricket and playing the piano. Using Bluesky in a personal capacity.
Reposted
#Budget week is (finally) here! But what should we be really looking out for on Wednesday? 💼
Our Peter Dixon answers four key questions in the latest #MondayInterview, just published 👇
#Budget2025 #Chancellor #UKeconomy
@resmedia.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/four-ke...
Our Peter Dixon answers four key questions in the latest #MondayInterview, just published 👇
#Budget2025 #Chancellor #UKeconomy
@resmedia.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/four-ke...
November 24, 2025 at 10:49 AM
#Budget week is (finally) here! But what should we be really looking out for on Wednesday? 💼
Our Peter Dixon answers four key questions in the latest #MondayInterview, just published 👇
#Budget2025 #Chancellor #UKeconomy
@resmedia.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/four-ke...
Our Peter Dixon answers four key questions in the latest #MondayInterview, just published 👇
#Budget2025 #Chancellor #UKeconomy
@resmedia.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/four-ke...
Reposted
NIESR Deputy Director
@adrianpabst.bsky.social
comments on the impact of the #Budget2025 on #livingstandards: "[The Chancellor's] decision to extend the freeze in income tax thresholds will hit the bottom 30% of UK households the hardest."
@adrianpabst.bsky.social
comments on the impact of the #Budget2025 on #livingstandards: "[The Chancellor's] decision to extend the freeze in income tax thresholds will hit the bottom 30% of UK households the hardest."
November 26, 2025 at 3:33 PM
NIESR Deputy Director
@adrianpabst.bsky.social
comments on the impact of the #Budget2025 on #livingstandards: "[The Chancellor's] decision to extend the freeze in income tax thresholds will hit the bottom 30% of UK households the hardest."
@adrianpabst.bsky.social
comments on the impact of the #Budget2025 on #livingstandards: "[The Chancellor's] decision to extend the freeze in income tax thresholds will hit the bottom 30% of UK households the hardest."
Reposted
"The OBR's downgrade to its #productivity forecast acknowledges the economic reality of lower trend GDP growth", according to NIESR Senior Economist Ben Caswell.
November 26, 2025 at 2:23 PM
"The OBR's downgrade to its #productivity forecast acknowledges the economic reality of lower trend GDP growth", according to NIESR Senior Economist Ben Caswell.
Reposted
'Chancellor let's stop paying a credibility #tax'!
Our Director David Aikman setting the scene ahead of the #Budget2025
Follow our live reactions here ⚡️
#Budget #UKeconomy
Our Director David Aikman setting the scene ahead of the #Budget2025
Follow our live reactions here ⚡️
#Budget #UKeconomy
November 26, 2025 at 11:49 AM
'Chancellor let's stop paying a credibility #tax'!
Our Director David Aikman setting the scene ahead of the #Budget2025
Follow our live reactions here ⚡️
#Budget #UKeconomy
Our Director David Aikman setting the scene ahead of the #Budget2025
Follow our live reactions here ⚡️
#Budget #UKeconomy
Reposted
Our analysis of today's Autumn #Budget is published!
We believe it locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates with a modest fiscal tightening over the forecast.
Our full take here: 👇
niesr.ac.uk/blog/2025-au...
We believe it locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates with a modest fiscal tightening over the forecast.
Our full take here: 👇
niesr.ac.uk/blog/2025-au...
2025 Autumn Budget Reaction - NIESR
Today’s Autumn Budget locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates.
niesr.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Our analysis of today's Autumn #Budget is published!
We believe it locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates with a modest fiscal tightening over the forecast.
Our full take here: 👇
niesr.ac.uk/blog/2025-au...
We believe it locks in a high-tax, high-debt steady state in a world of low productivity growth and higher interest rates with a modest fiscal tightening over the forecast.
Our full take here: 👇
niesr.ac.uk/blog/2025-au...
Reposted
Will today's #Budget boost productivity?
Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity...
@bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity...
@bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
Productivity Puzzles: Will We Get a Productive Budget?
The Chancellor’s Budget is on the horizon. Will it bring higher taxes, deeper cuts, or more borrowing? Does the Budget really matter for productivity? And how does productivity shape the Budget? ...
podfollow.com
November 26, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Will today's #Budget boost productivity?
Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity...
@bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
Get a head start on how the budget will impact productivity: podfollow.com/productivity...
@bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), Louise Hellem (CBI) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
Reposted
#Chancellor, fix the roof!🏚️
"We need to call time on fiscal wishful thinking.
The sun may not be shining, but it’s still the moment to fix the roof – before the next storm hits" 🌦️🌩️
Ahead of the #Budget our Director's piece for Comment Central is a must read 👇
"We need to call time on fiscal wishful thinking.
The sun may not be shining, but it’s still the moment to fix the roof – before the next storm hits" 🌦️🌩️
Ahead of the #Budget our Director's piece for Comment Central is a must read 👇
The sun might not be shining, but it’s time to fix the roof
Within the space of a week, the Chancellor has delivered a pre-Budget signal, rowed back from it, and left the impression of a government unsure of its fiscal bearings. One could be forgiven for…
commentcentral.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 8:53 AM
#Chancellor, fix the roof!🏚️
"We need to call time on fiscal wishful thinking.
The sun may not be shining, but it’s still the moment to fix the roof – before the next storm hits" 🌦️🌩️
Ahead of the #Budget our Director's piece for Comment Central is a must read 👇
"We need to call time on fiscal wishful thinking.
The sun may not be shining, but it’s still the moment to fix the roof – before the next storm hits" 🌦️🌩️
Ahead of the #Budget our Director's piece for Comment Central is a must read 👇
Reposted
*NEW* pre-#Budget video with our Deputy Director @econstevem.bsky.social
What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?
Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥
#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?
Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥
#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
November 23, 2025 at 6:12 PM
*NEW* pre-#Budget video with our Deputy Director @econstevem.bsky.social
What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?
Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥
#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?
Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥
#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
Reposted
#Budget day is on Wednesday - does the UK need to invest more money in the NHS? @teraallas.bsky.social provides her expertise on the latest Productivity Puzzles ep.: podfollow.com/productivity...
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
November 24, 2025 at 9:07 AM
#Budget day is on Wednesday - does the UK need to invest more money in the NHS? @teraallas.bsky.social provides her expertise on the latest Productivity Puzzles ep.: podfollow.com/productivity...
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
The ep. also features @econstevem.bsky.social & Louise Hellem, alongside host @bartvanark.bsky.social.
Reposted
#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView
The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from explores explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from explores explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
November 23, 2025 at 9:28 AM
#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView
The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from explores explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from explores explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
Reposted
The UK bond market is highly sensitive as it approaches next week’s #Budget. This blog explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’.
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
November 21, 2025 at 10:37 AM
The UK bond market is highly sensitive as it approaches next week’s #Budget. This blog explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’.
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...
Reposted
"We need to call time on fiscal wishful thinking.
What’s needed in the #AutumnBudget is a credible plan to reduce #debt – not just over this Parliament but over the decade ahead."
Our Director David Aikman's latest piece for Comment Central is out now!
commentcentral.co.uk/the-sun-migh...
What’s needed in the #AutumnBudget is a credible plan to reduce #debt – not just over this Parliament but over the decade ahead."
Our Director David Aikman's latest piece for Comment Central is out now!
commentcentral.co.uk/the-sun-migh...
The sun might not be shining, but it’s time to fix the roof
Within the space of a week, the Chancellor has delivered a pre-Budget signal, rowed back from it, and left the impression of a government unsure of its fiscal bearings. One could be forgiven for feel...
commentcentral.co.uk
November 21, 2025 at 4:35 PM
"We need to call time on fiscal wishful thinking.
What’s needed in the #AutumnBudget is a credible plan to reduce #debt – not just over this Parliament but over the decade ahead."
Our Director David Aikman's latest piece for Comment Central is out now!
commentcentral.co.uk/the-sun-migh...
What’s needed in the #AutumnBudget is a credible plan to reduce #debt – not just over this Parliament but over the decade ahead."
Our Director David Aikman's latest piece for Comment Central is out now!
commentcentral.co.uk/the-sun-migh...
Reposted
#WeekendReading🔖 Forget MAGA... what matters in the UK is MOBA!
*Make the OBR Boring Again*
Our Director David Aikman explains why in his latest piece for @cityam.bsky.social
👇👇👇
*Make the OBR Boring Again*
Our Director David Aikman explains why in his latest piece for @cityam.bsky.social
👇👇👇
Make the OBR boring again
The OBR should be independent, trusted and uncontroversial - so it needs a rules-based framework in which to operate, otherwise it will continue to come under attack
www.cityam.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:30 AM
#WeekendReading🔖 Forget MAGA... what matters in the UK is MOBA!
*Make the OBR Boring Again*
Our Director David Aikman explains why in his latest piece for @cityam.bsky.social
👇👇👇
*Make the OBR Boring Again*
Our Director David Aikman explains why in his latest piece for @cityam.bsky.social
👇👇👇
Reposted
#WeekendWatching🔖 Our pre-#Budget video with Director David Aikman outlining where the actual issues lie, how to address the fiscal gap in the public finances, and the role of #fiscalrules ⬇️🎥
#Budget #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
#Budget #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
November 22, 2025 at 4:12 PM
#WeekendWatching🔖 Our pre-#Budget video with Director David Aikman outlining where the actual issues lie, how to address the fiscal gap in the public finances, and the role of #fiscalrules ⬇️🎥
#Budget #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
#Budget #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
Reposted
For an in-depth Budget discussion, listen to the latest ep. of Productivity Puzzles, w/ @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social) & Louise Hellem (CBI): www.productivity.ac.uk/podcast/will...
#Budget #Budget2025 #Productivity #Policy #Podcast
#Budget #Budget2025 #Productivity #Policy #Podcast
Will We Get a Productive Budget? - The Productivity Institute
Does the Budget really matter for productivity? And how does productivity shape the Budget?
www.productivity.ac.uk
November 21, 2025 at 11:13 AM
For an in-depth Budget discussion, listen to the latest ep. of Productivity Puzzles, w/ @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social), @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social) & Louise Hellem (CBI): www.productivity.ac.uk/podcast/will...
#Budget #Budget2025 #Productivity #Policy #Podcast
#Budget #Budget2025 #Productivity #Policy #Podcast
Reposted
#WeekendReading🔖 What is fiscal sustainability? How to define it?
And what can the #Chancellor do in the upcoming #Budget to achieve it?
Our latest #MondayInterview by @econstevem.bsky.social tries to provide some answers👇
#FiscalPolicy #Budget2025
niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-ar...
And what can the #Chancellor do in the upcoming #Budget to achieve it?
Our latest #MondayInterview by @econstevem.bsky.social tries to provide some answers👇
#FiscalPolicy #Budget2025
niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-ar...
November 22, 2025 at 9:07 AM
#WeekendReading🔖 What is fiscal sustainability? How to define it?
And what can the #Chancellor do in the upcoming #Budget to achieve it?
Our latest #MondayInterview by @econstevem.bsky.social tries to provide some answers👇
#FiscalPolicy #Budget2025
niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-ar...
And what can the #Chancellor do in the upcoming #Budget to achieve it?
Our latest #MondayInterview by @econstevem.bsky.social tries to provide some answers👇
#FiscalPolicy #Budget2025
niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-ar...
Reposted
Does increasing growth in the long run mean making politically difficult decisions in the short term? podfollow.com/productivity...
This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
November 20, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Does increasing growth in the long run mean making politically difficult decisions in the short term? podfollow.com/productivity...
This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
This special Budget episode features Louise Hellem (CBI), @teraallas.bsky.social (@alliancembs.bsky.social) & @econstevem.bsky.social (@niesrorg.bsky.social).
Reposted
*NEW* pre-#Budget video with our Deputy Director @econstevem.bsky.social
What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?
Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥
#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
@resmedia.bsky.social
What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?
Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥
#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
@resmedia.bsky.social
November 20, 2025 at 4:35 PM
*NEW* pre-#Budget video with our Deputy Director @econstevem.bsky.social
What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?
Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥
#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
@resmedia.bsky.social
What is trend growth? Why it matters? What can the #Government do about it?
Worth a watch ahead of next week ⬇️🎥
#Budget2025 #AutumnBudget #UKeconomy #Chancellor
@resmedia.bsky.social
Reposted
🚨OUT NOW🚨 Our latest #CPI Tracker suggests that, despite the expected fall today, #inflation will remain above 3% over the next 6 months 📈
Here is why 👇
niesr.ac.uk/publications...
Here is why 👇
niesr.ac.uk/publications...
November 19, 2025 at 10:46 AM
🚨OUT NOW🚨 Our latest #CPI Tracker suggests that, despite the expected fall today, #inflation will remain above 3% over the next 6 months 📈
Here is why 👇
niesr.ac.uk/publications...
Here is why 👇
niesr.ac.uk/publications...
Reposted
What to make of today's #inflation figures? They suggest a mixed picture...
Our Huw Dixon digs deep into the numbers and provide some insights in his #blog, just published
👇👇
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/inflati...
Our Huw Dixon digs deep into the numbers and provide some insights in his #blog, just published
👇👇
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/inflati...
November 19, 2025 at 5:17 PM
What to make of today's #inflation figures? They suggest a mixed picture...
Our Huw Dixon digs deep into the numbers and provide some insights in his #blog, just published
👇👇
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/inflati...
Our Huw Dixon digs deep into the numbers and provide some insights in his #blog, just published
👇👇
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/inflati...
Reposted
Reducing uncertainty should be a core aim of next week's Budget. @econstevem.bsky.social from @niesrorg.bsky.social is on the latest ep. of Productivity Puzzles, w/ @bartvanark.bsky.social, Louise Hellem (CBI) & @teraallas.bsky.social from @alliancembs.bsky.social: podfollow.com/productivity...
November 19, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Reducing uncertainty should be a core aim of next week's Budget. @econstevem.bsky.social from @niesrorg.bsky.social is on the latest ep. of Productivity Puzzles, w/ @bartvanark.bsky.social, Louise Hellem (CBI) & @teraallas.bsky.social from @alliancembs.bsky.social: podfollow.com/productivity...
Reposted
"We can, and should, have two #OBR forecasts a year but one #Budget"
The way to avoid short-termism is not to silence the OBR but to build more headroom into the fiscal rules"
Our Director David Aikman's letter in the @financialtimes.com today is worth a read 📨👇
www.ft.com/content/dcf9...
The way to avoid short-termism is not to silence the OBR but to build more headroom into the fiscal rules"
Our Director David Aikman's letter in the @financialtimes.com today is worth a read 📨👇
www.ft.com/content/dcf9...
Letter: The OBR’s problem is not a lack of transparency
From David Aikman, Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London SW1, UK
www.ft.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:09 AM
"We can, and should, have two #OBR forecasts a year but one #Budget"
The way to avoid short-termism is not to silence the OBR but to build more headroom into the fiscal rules"
Our Director David Aikman's letter in the @financialtimes.com today is worth a read 📨👇
www.ft.com/content/dcf9...
The way to avoid short-termism is not to silence the OBR but to build more headroom into the fiscal rules"
Our Director David Aikman's letter in the @financialtimes.com today is worth a read 📨👇
www.ft.com/content/dcf9...
Reposted
⚡️Latest forecast paints a gloomy picture for #inflation well into 2026 📈
Ahead of tomorrow's latest ONS monthly data on inflation read our Huw Dixon's blog 👇
#UKeconomy
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/latest-...
Ahead of tomorrow's latest ONS monthly data on inflation read our Huw Dixon's blog 👇
#UKeconomy
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/latest-...
November 18, 2025 at 9:58 AM
⚡️Latest forecast paints a gloomy picture for #inflation well into 2026 📈
Ahead of tomorrow's latest ONS monthly data on inflation read our Huw Dixon's blog 👇
#UKeconomy
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/latest-...
Ahead of tomorrow's latest ONS monthly data on inflation read our Huw Dixon's blog 👇
#UKeconomy
@cu-cardiffbusiness.bsky.social
niesr.ac.uk/blog/latest-...
Reposted
⚡️Our reaction to the latest #inflation figures is out now⚡️
#UKeconomy
#InterestRates
@resmedia.bsky.social
#UKeconomy
#InterestRates
@resmedia.bsky.social
November 19, 2025 at 7:27 AM
⚡️Our reaction to the latest #inflation figures is out now⚡️
#UKeconomy
#InterestRates
@resmedia.bsky.social
#UKeconomy
#InterestRates
@resmedia.bsky.social
Reposted
With the budget happening next week, I was able to discuss the links between the budget and productivity on this podcast hosted by @bartvanark.bsky.social together with the excellent @teraallas.bsky.social and Louise Hellem. Well worth a listen! @niesrorg.bsky.social @jagjitchadha.bsky.social
Budget day is just around the corner, but will it be a productive Budget? 🧩 On this new episode of Productivity Puzzles, @bartvanark.bsky.social is joined by @teraallas.bsky.social, Louise Hellem & @econstevem.bsky.social: podfollow.com/productivity...
#Budget #productivity #podcast
#Budget #productivity #podcast
Productivity Puzzles: Will We Get a Productive Budget?
The Chancellor’s Budget is on the horizon. Will it bring higher taxes, deeper cuts, or more borrowing? Does the Budget really matter for productivity? And how does productivity shape the Budget? ...
podfollow.com
November 18, 2025 at 11:34 AM
With the budget happening next week, I was able to discuss the links between the budget and productivity on this podcast hosted by @bartvanark.bsky.social together with the excellent @teraallas.bsky.social and Louise Hellem. Well worth a listen! @niesrorg.bsky.social @jagjitchadha.bsky.social