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daniel a. smith

@electionsmith.bsky.social

5.7K followers 160 following 120 posts

political science professor; state politics scholar (direct democracy, voting, elections); cynic, skeptic, & part-time africanist; personal musings

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Political science 47%

Economics 10%

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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · 25d

"Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting" is now out at Electoral Studies www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting

Tens of millions of voting-eligible Americans live with disabilities, many of whom need a form of assistance when casting ballots. Drawing on publicly…

www.sciencedirect.com

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daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · Aug 29

open.substack.com/pub/election...

"Welcome to the Free State of Florida"

In-Migration and Rising Republicanism in the Sunshine State

open.substack.com

daniel a. smith @electionsmith.bsky.social · Aug 22

open.substack.com/pub/election...

News Flash: Restricting Voter Registration Activities Deters Voters from Registering

Voter Registration Crisis in Florida

open.substack.com

Substack

Orval Watts' Timeless Warning

A Tract for Liberty in the Age of Trump In an era where political fervor often eclipses principled reflection, conservatives would do well to revisit the wisdom of L. Orval Watts, a Harvard-trained Ph.D. economist who ended his career as a professor at Northwood University (known as America’s Free Enterprise University). In particular, Watt’s 1938 book,

Reposts 0 Aug 12

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Questions and Answers on Trade and Tariffs

What is a tariff?

Reposts 0 May 20

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Trade Deficits: Back to Econ 101

Governor Lee Recently Echoed Trump's Flawed Understanding of Basic Trade Terms Tennessee Governor Bill Lee recently echoed President Donald Trump’s faulty understanding of trade deficits. It is a popular misunderstanding of what a trade deficit is. The term “deficit” is, unfortunately, very misleading, requiring careful explanation every time I teach principles of economics.

Reposts 0 May 8

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Unpacking the US-UK Trade Talks: Tariffs, Surpluses, and Trump’s Global Strategy

Today, President Trump announced the launch of negotiations for a free trade deal with the United Kingdom—not a permanent agreement, but a step toward closer economic ties with a long-standing ally. As the US and UK sit down to hammer out the details, the focus is likely to center on tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and the murky waters of their bilateral …

Reposts 0 May 8

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What is a Conservative?

Republicans are in an identity crisis The definition of conservatism under Donald Trump has become malleable, leading to confusion about what its defining principles are. Increasingly, policies antithetical to traditional conservative values are considered conservative simply because modern proponents identify them as such. But conservatism is not a veneer or a mere feeling. It is a commitm…

Reposts 0 May 6

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Evaluating the Negotiation Defense of Tariffs

I have several concerns about the negotiation defense of Trump’s tariffs. I’ll go through them one-by-one:

Reposts 0 May 6

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Is the U.S. Being Ripped Off in Trade?

U.S. Trade Protectionism Compared to the World According to Three Rankings Is the U.S. being ripped off in trade by our international trading partners? There are three readily available indices we can use to examine this (a nod to Phil Magness whose article inspired this one). They are 1) Trade Freedom from the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom, 2) Freedom to Trade Internationally from the Fraser Economic Freedom…

Reposts 0 Apr 24

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Loyalty to the Constitution or Trump?

Unchecked defiance of the Constitution risks dismantling the checks and balances that preserve our republic, paving the way for tyranny. When push comes to shove, do our elected officials owe their loyalty to President Donald J. Trump or the United States Constitution? This is not a hypothetical exercise–it’s a real-time test of principle playing out before our eyes.

Reposts 0 Apr 23

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Kristi Noem’s Stolen Purse

Cash and Contradiction On April 20, 2025, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s purse was stolen from a Washington, D.C., restaurant, containing $3,000 in cash and other personal items. The Secret Service and local police are now diligently working to recover her belongings, treating the theft as a serious breach involving a high-profile official. Yet, this incident expos…

Reposts 0 Apr 22

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The Intellectual Decline of America

A Nation Unmoored from Its Roots (Written with assistance from Grok)

Reposts 0 Apr 17

Reposted by Daniel Smith, Daniel A. Smith

Mark Joseph Stern @mjsdc.bsky.social · Dec 11

North Carolina Republicans just took the final vote on this massive power-grab, muscling it through the House over the governor's veto. That's the ballgame. A HUGE change in how the state government operates, giving Republicans much, much more power. andersonalerts.substack.com/p/sb-382-fin...

Prevents Gov.-elect Josh Stein from appointing members onto the State Board of Elections by transferring that authority over to Republican Auditor-elect Dave Boliek.

Makes the State Highway Patrol an independent agency and requires Stein to get the General Assembly’s approval for a five-year appointment

If a Supreme Court or Court Appeals vacancy emerges, Stein must fill it from a list of recommendations provided by the political party of the departing judge, thus preventing him from filling a potential GOP vacancy with a Democrat.

Removes the seats of Wake County Superior Court Judge Bryan Collins and Forsyth County Superior Court Judge Todd Burke. Collins and Burke have ruled against election law changes that GOP lawmakers have put forward over the years.

Prohibits Attorney General-elect Jeff Jackson from participating in lawsuits that undercut actions taken by the General Assembly. The bill says Jackson “shall not, as a party, amicus, or any other participant in an action pending before a state or federal court in another state, advance any argument that would result in the invalidation of any statute enacted by the General Assembly.”

Prevents Lt. Gov.-elect Rachel Hunt from chairing committees on energy issues. The bill also eliminates the Energy Policy Council, which has been chaired by the lieutenant governor.

Prevents Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction-elect Mo Green from appealing decisions made by the Charter Schools Review Board.

Reduces the timeframe voters can “cure” their provisional ballots from nine days to three days. Provisionals tend to favor Democratic candidates and proved essential to Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs’ efforts to overtake the lead of Republican Court of Appeals Judge Jefferson Griffin.

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Reposted by Daniel Smith, Daniel A. Smith

Scholars Strategy Network @scholars.org · Nov 1

Florida leans red in registration, but unaffiliated or 'inactive" voters may tell a different story. In this
Conversation US OpEd, @electionsmith.bsky.social explains how abortion & cannabis ballot measures could mobilize Democrats.

Read more: theconversation.com/abortion-and...

Reposted by Daniel Smith, Daniel A. Smith

Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · Oct 28

#earlyvote evening update 10/27: at least 41.9 million people have voted in the 2024 general election 🥳
election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

» 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu

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Famines and Socialism

What is the historical association between state ownership or control of the economy and famine morality? Using the historical Our World in Data of Famines, we examine this using V-Dem’s State Ownership of Economy measure. It is important to adjust for the size of the population, so I also gathered population estimates. Here is the scatterplot with the …

Reposts 0 Aug 21

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Do Women Have Better Civil Liberties Under Socialism?

Socialism and the Suppression of Women's Rights A 2018 book by Kristen Ghodesee argued that women have better sex under socialism. While empirically measuring that claim is pretty tricky, plenty of evidence exists on how women fare under socialism.

Reposts 0 Aug 19

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Billionaire Wealth Concentration

United States vs. The Nordics There has been increasing concern about the wealth concentration of billionaires in the United States. This concentration of wealth can translate into economic power or influence over the economy which can be leveraged for political power. The Nordic model is often held up as a counterexample where high marginal tax rates and generous welfare programs p…

Reposts 0 Aug 14

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Are Universities Biased to the Left?

Using Critical Theory to Explain the Left's Blindness to Academic Oppression Seth Clark Silberman, who self-describes as a “Lefty PhD-holding cosmopolitan photographer and writer in NYC who was the first junior faculty hired by Yale University to teach LGBTQ Studies,” observed on X that “academia is an EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE INSTITUTION. Anyone claiming that it’s some radical Left thing has zero experience with it.”

Reposts 0 Aug 13

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Are the Nordic Countries an Exception to Hayek's The Road to Serfdom?

One of the most common questions I receive when presenting the results of my coauthored work with Gabriel Benzecry and Nicholas Reinarts using V-Dem’s State Ownership of the Economy data to examine Hayek’s hypothesis in The Road to Serfdom on the incompatibility of socialism and democratic freedom, is that Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Norway) offer an important counterexample.

Reposts 0 Aug 12

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Fascism and Capitalism

Evaluating Stiglitz on "Neoliberal Capitalism" and the Emergence of Fascism Nobel laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz’s book, The Road to Freedom, is making the news again. This time, the headline is Stiglitz’s claim that “neoliberal capitalism” is contributing to the emergence of fascism. Stiglitz, again, offers no evidence to support his contention.

Reposts 0 Aug 12

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The Socialists' Hypotheses and The Road to Serfdom

While Hayek’s central hypothesis in The Road to Serfdom (TRTS), that socialism and democracy are incompatible (see my own coauthored contribution, forthcoming in Public Choice), has received considerable attention, relatively little scholarly attention has been paid to the socialists Hayek was directly engaging in

Reposts 0 Aug 7

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Stonewalling Progress

Socialism and LGBT Political Inclusion Does state ownership of the economy advance or hinder LGBT access to political power? There is such a long-standing associational overlap between advocates of LGBT rights and socialism that it has received its own Wikipedia page. Is this association deserved? Does socialism do better than capitalism in protecting LGBT rights?

Reposts 0 Jul 30

Substack

Fact-Checking the New York Times on Venezuela

Venezuela is, Without a Doubt, a Socialist Country In their coverage of Venezuela’s election, the New York Times states that “in recent years, the socialist model has given way to brutal capitalism”. In a 2020 article (thanks to Jeffrey P. Clemens on X for alerting me to this in his post), they state that Maduro has "made peace with the private sector and let it loose" and described Venezuela as a "free…

Reposts 0 Jul 29

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Venezuela's Road to Serfdom

Hayek's Hypothesis Confirmed Yet Again In a paper written with Gabriel Benzecry (Northwood University) and Nicholas Reinarts (newly minted Ph.D. heading to Hood College), forthcoming in Public Choice, “You Have Nothing to Lose but Your Chains? Re-examining the Hayek-Friedman Hypothesis on the Relationship Between Capitalism and Political Freedom

Reposts 0 Jul 29

Reposted by Daniel Smith, Daniel A. Smith

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · Feb 25

At the center of the right wing attack on public services is deprofessionalization - devaluing specialist expertise. If your grades are being determined by citizen volunteers, they are no longer a function of academic judgment.

Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · Feb 25

The measure would require the regents to set up a department to hear grade challenges based on bias. That department would be staffed by volunteers who could determine there was bias and could order the faculty member to regrade the student’s assignment or reevaluate the student’s overall grade.

Students could get grades changed over politics under Arizona Senate plan

Legislation approved by Senate would give university students a new avenue to appeal by alleging "political bias". Teachers could be ordered to change grades.

tucson.com

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Reposted by Daniel Smith, Daniel A. Smith

Philip Bump @pbump.com · Dec 9

Oh, and here’s an excerpt, for kicks. 3/2

(The book’s data is more reliable than the numbers in this thread.)

“Reality Is Submerged in Fantasy”: The Villages Is a Boomer’s Utopia—And Demographic Time Bo...

Florida’s Trump-loving retirement community was meticulously created “to make boomers in particular feel comfortable and happy,” as Philip Bump writes in his forthcoming book, ‘Aftermath.’ B...

www.vanityfair.com

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Reposted by Daniel Smith, Daniel A. Smith

Philip Bump @pbump.com · Dec 9

The testimony of Ivy League presidents received far more attention than new assessments of how universities in Florida have been hobbled under DeSantis.

Analysis | Furor over the Ivies — and crickets about Florida

The week’s conversation about higher education both reflects the salience of the war in Israel — and the right’s success in how it frames higher education.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Reposted by Daniel Smith, Daniel A. Smith

Derek Willis @dwillis.bsky.social · Dec 6

The good folks at UF's Election Lab recently released 2016 and 2020 election turnout estimates for MSAs, so I made a map and table for the DDHQ newsletter:

A map of Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States and the change in turnout between the 2016 and 2020 elections.

A table listing the Metropolitan Statistical Areas with the biggest change in turnout between the 2016 and 2020 general elections.

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