A random observation on "per90" stats: Last season, substitutes had twice as high xGI per 90 as starters - 0.48 vs 0.22. (0.57 vs 0.30 if DEF are excluded).
Examining statistics per start will likely provide a more realistic representation than extrapolating to 90 minutes played.
#FPL #FPLCommunity

Crystal Palace has underperfomed their xG by 17,9(!) goals this season - 46 goals from 64 xG 😶

Nottingham Forrest at the other end of the spectrum with an overperformance of 12,6 - 56 goals from 43,4 xG.

#FPL #FPL-Community

Re Haaland: the Norwegian National Team doctor says they're hopeful he'll be ready for the matches in June, but that it's too early to say. It all depends on the recovery process. Not looking good for FPL...

#FPL #FPL-Community

Newcastle's underlying numbers are not looking good. Negative trend since GW20 and only SOU and LEI have worse xG NP/90 the last 5 GW.

#FPL #FPLCommunity

I tend to avoid players who get subbed early, but I've started second-guessing that strategy. The graph shows xGI NP vs xMins for midfielders this season.

The difference in xGI NP when xMins > 70 looks to be more due to player quality than minutes.

Data from @ffscoutfpl.bsky.social #FPL

In the past 5 PL seasons, 5261 goals have been conceded from an xGC of 5296.9 - a difference of 0.6%.

Liverpool "is best" with 28 goals conceded less than their xGC. Southampton is at the other end of the spectrum with 32.3 goals conceded more than their xGC.

Data from @fbref.com

Saka's 5 game rolling xGI p90 has declined since his GW8 injury - from 0.87 to 0.45. Something to monitor for the next two GW. I'm tempted to go Saka to Haaland when MCI gets a nice fixture run from GW18 onwards.

#FPL #FPLGraphics #FPLCommunity

BOU have the second highest xGI NP in the past 5 GW (behind CHE). From GW 16 they play WHU, MUN (a), CRY, ful (a), EVE. 👀 Looking good for Semenyo and Evanilson 🤞

#FPL #FPLGraphics #FPLCommunity

Tottenham's expected unexpected lows continue... 0,65 xG and conceded twice as much.

#FPL

Reviewing some data after GW12 and Tottenham's xGI NP is interesting. While they have been good, 1/3 of their xGI NP came in GW 5 and 6 vs BRE and MUN, respectively. The graph below confirms the eye test: High ceiling, but expect unexpected lows.

#FPL #FPLGraphics

Liverpool with one win of 2+goals in the last 7 PL matches -> 2-0 vs Villa, where Villa had 1,38 xG. Five one goal wins. Margins.

That's got to be a -2 for Madueke 🙈 #FPL

Wildcard team as it stands (and probably will be). Kinda boring, but should be solid picks with high xMins over the next 5-10 GWs. Money in the bank to go Bruno to Saka when needed. Will hopefully roll a couple of transfers to be set for a mini-WC for some fixture turns in 17/18.

#FPL #FPLCommunity

For GW12 WC: Looking at the next 10 GW, Villa seems like a good choice for a cheap DEF - e.g. Konsa at 4.4 (if fit).

⚽They are the best defensive side at home so far this season with 3.15 np xGC in 5 matches.
⚽ They're facing several teams with poor attacking numbers away -> SOU, BRE, CPL.
#FPL

Looking for recommendations for FPL strategy content. More specifically general strategy, e.g team structure, transfer strategy, value across positions etc and not the generic "10 tips to win your mini-league" stuff 😄

Prefer blogs/articles, but podcast and video also fine. Anyone?

#FPL

I'm on WC for GW12 and Mbuemo is a headache. Great player, but Brentford is the worst away team with 0.75 xG p90. Their home matches after LEI are NEW, NFO, ARS, MCI and LIV - all good/competent defences. Keeping him feels like booking a transfer, so I'm leaning towards no Mbuemo - no bueno?

#FPL