Nikolas Gvosdev
LightNews LightNews
banner
fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev
@fpriorbis.bsky.social
3K followers 260 following 3.1K posts

Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev-925485301/ .. more

Videos

Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev is a Russian–American international relations scholar. He is currently professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College and the former Editor of the bi-monthly foreign policy journal, The National Interest. He writes as a specialist on US foreign policy as well as international politics as they affect Russia and its neighbors. He currently serves as editor of the journal Orbis. .. more

Political science 69%
Sociology 14%
Posts Replies Media Videos
Pinned
fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 8d
Facing Coming Storms ... episode 45 ... Unpredictable But Critical 2026 ...
chacr.org.uk/2026/01/12/f...
Facing Coming Storms #45: Unpredictable but critical 2026 - CHACR
Episode description: In our first episode of 2026, we couldn’t have asked for a stronger panel – three experts who’ve spent their careers wrestling with the grey-zone threats reshaping global security...
chacr.org.uk

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 20h
Suggests that China’s overriding goal is maintaining access rather than preserving regimes …. www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Vitol Offers Venezuelan Crude Oil to China at Narrower Discount | Nikolas Gvosdev
So this suggests that those who felt deposition of Maduro would cut Venezuelan oil off from Chin did not anticipate this … and reinforces PRC view that maintaining access rather than regime support is...
www.linkedin.com

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 21h
Waiting to see if an ad hoc #G7 summit takes shape at #WEF2026 #Davos to tackle the crises underway especially #Greenland …

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d
No. Moscow's assessment is that Trump does what he wants to do and that if he thought turning against Russia was key to his interests, he would do so in a flash. They'll take advantage of any disruption, to be sure, but they realize POTUS actions not motivated by Russian preferences.

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d
Looks like China is anticipating possibility of additional disruptions of key commodity supply chains exposed to U.S. pressure, and taking steps to secure ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
What is interesting to me is how much of this occurs along secure land corridors to reduce possibility of maritime disruption … to me it also suggests that despite hopes of an imminent Russia-China… |...
What is interesting to me is how much of this occurs along secure land corridors to reduce possibility of maritime disruption … to me it also suggests that despite hopes of an imminent Russia-China sp...
www.linkedin.com

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d
Some additional points of concern ... all connected to a sense that a major escalation may be unavoidable ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d
The point at which analysis can no longer provide explanations ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
In this post George Friedman sums up the experience of the analyst: "... The process of explaining can appear as a justification of corruption and irrationality, but I have been confident that I…...
In this post George Friedman sums up the experience of the analyst: "... The process of explaining can appear as a justification of corruption and irrationality, but I have been confident that I under...
www.linkedin.com

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d
Somber reporting on the public mood in Russia: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
James Davis in the Asia Times reporting on the mood in Moscow and Russian media coverage: ... major Russian media outlets are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a speedy… | Sou...
James Davis in the Asia Times reporting on the mood in Moscow and Russian media coverage: ... major Russian media outlets are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a speedy conclu...
www.linkedin.com

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d
Reading this post from Carolyn Kissane got me thinking about a new version of the #two_level_game: a geo-technology level and a domestic-political level: www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Data centers are amazing. Everyone hates them. | Nikolas Gvosdev
This critical post from Carolyn Kissane indicates the emergence of a #two_level_game when it comes to #AI and data centers: in this case, a geo-technology level which sees this in terms of national po...
www.linkedin.com

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d
Rapidity of deployment--even if of a small token force--by European NATO allies of Denmark to Greenland again reinforces the point below: Denmark has actual, not virtual, commitments from its partners.
fpriorbis.bsky.social Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 11d
The Oreshnik strikes on Lviv is a reminder that there is no such thing as "virtual" alliances, "implied" security guarantees, etc. The notion that the eastern border of the EU and NATO provides a de facto security zone over Western Ukraine is fanciful.

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d
Yes, they do … Reliance can process, as I understand it.

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 3d
Making problems solve each other? Could Venezuelan oil be sold to India at discount, both diverting it from China and helping Indian refineries pivot from Russian supplies? Stay tuned.

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 4d
Again, a good reminder to drill down into any news report you repost ... what's the ultimate provenance of the information? www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...
We've been approached by our clients in the past week who've seen very dramatic and sensational reporting on developments in both Ukraine and Russia, often promoted by senior political figures...
We've been approached by our clients in the past week who've seen very dramatic and sensational reporting on developments in both Ukraine and Russia, often promoted by senior political figures as well...
www.linkedin.com

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 4d
Fascinating reporting about #Qatar as a neutral banking center … and implications for U.S. sales of Venezuelan oil being held outside the U.S. financial system (and Congressional oversight) … edition.cnn.com/2026/01/15/b...
Why the Trump administration is holding millions of dollars from Venezuelan oil sales in a Qatari bank | CNN Business
Hundreds of millions of dollars that the United States is raising from the sale of Venezuelan oil is being sequestered in Qatar. It’s an indirect path that could speed the flow of much-needed money to...
edition.cnn.com

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 4d
#CompetitiveCoexistence tracks with the #3C approach that the #MayflowerGroup advised be the basis is for U.S. policy towards Russia. @TheNatlInterest nationalinterest.org/feature/comp...
Competitive Coexistence with Russia Isn’t Appeasement
Washington should manage its expectations; a rerun of Cold War containment won’t change Russian behavior.
nationalinterest.org

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 7d
Lays out the challenge Larry Rubin and I will have to address as #Orbis returns from its hiatus as a new joint venture between @fpri.bsky.social and Georgia Tech's Nunn School ...
seva.bsky.social Seva @seva.bsky.social · 8d
I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
The Age of Academic Slop is Upon Us
what happens when AI automates "normal science"?
open.substack.com

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Reposted by Mark Galeotti, Ben H. Ansell, David M. Schultz , and 26 more

seva.bsky.social
Seva @seva.bsky.social · 8d
I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...
The Age of Academic Slop is Upon Us
what happens when AI automates "normal science"?
open.substack.com

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 8d
no longer automatically serves as the default consensus for U.S. national security. 2/ chacr.org.uk/2026/01/12/f...
Facing Coming Storms #45: Unpredictable but critical 2026 - CHACR
Episode description: In our first episode of 2026, we couldn’t have asked for a stronger panel – three experts who’ve spent their careers wrestling with the grey-zone threats reshaping global security...
chacr.org.uk

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 8d
Was pleased to join this episode of #FacingComingStorms hosted by @pete_apps and to converse with COL Mietta Groeneveld and MG Andrew Sharpe.. It is important to understand shifts in American attitudes across the political spectrum and realize that an #Atlanticist orientation 1/

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

fpriorbis.bsky.social
Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 9d
So as I start to go through the charges against Nicolas Maduro, it almost seems to follow the plot line of "Live and Let Die": Maduro as head of state and the jefe of the Cartel de los Soles ... like the way Dr. Kananga was prime minister of San Monique and "Mr. Big."