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Nikolas Gvosdev

@fpriorbis.bsky.social

2.9K followers 260 following 2.8K posts

Someone who follows geopolitical and geo-economic trends and studies how national security decisions get made. All comments are personal opinions and do not reflect any official/institutional views. https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikolas-gvosdev-925485301/ .. more

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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev is a Russian–American international relations scholar. He is currently professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College and the former Editor of the bi-monthly foreign policy journal, The National Interest. He writes as a specialist on US foreign policy as well as international politics as they affect Russia and its neighbors. He currently serves as editor of the journal Orbis. .. more

Political science 69%

Sociology 14%

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 9d

The United Nations is returning to its Cold War state ... remaining a place for dialogue and diplomacy, handling some technical matters ... but not able to take the lead in solving global conflicts. news.day.az/world/178402...

Будущее безопасности за региональными союзами, а не за Совбезом ООН – ВЗГЛЯД из США

Реальных вариантов, которые поддержали бы все пять постоянных членов Совета Безопасности ООН, попросту нет. Максимум возможны небольшие изменения по периферии, но не коренная реформа. То, что эти госу...

news.day.az

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 6h

So it seems Aliyev did to Putin what Putin did to Erdogan: kept up the pressure until Putin offered an apology for the downing of the Azal jet ...

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 16h

The announcement: www.mofcom.gov.cn/zwgk/zcfb/ar...

商务部公告2025第61号公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定

www.mofcom.gov.cn

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 16h

China’s export controls on critical minerals can be used to impact U.S. manufacturing … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

Discussed this last night with "alumni" of the USS Massey gathered for their annual reunion ... that PRC is in a position to use its export controls to impact U.S. manufacturing ... | Nikola...

Discussed this last night with "alumni" of the USS Massey gathered for their annual reunion ... that PRC is in a position to use its export controls to impact U.S. manufacturing ...

www.linkedin.com

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Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

Canary in the coal mine? India settling some purchases of Russian oil in Chinese yuan (RMB) ... per @vtchakarova.bsky.social ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

This is an important development to track. First we had the Saudi petro-yuan possibility; now we have India using yuan to settle Russian oil purchases--moving away from the cumbersome efforts to… | Ni...

www.linkedin.com

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

Wondering extent to which checkbook/commercial diplomacy akin to what Saudis did for Taif settlement for Lebanon in 1989 is playing a role in current Gaza talks.

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

Per @massdara.bsky.social Russia is adapting, passing lessons to partners ... is NATO adapting as well? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

Because of the interruption of track 2 encounters between American and Russians, we are less familiar with the political dynamics in Russia, and the rising generation of leaders is better known in Asia than here ... www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

Preparing for the Death of Putin

Vladimir Putin turns 73 on Oct. 7. That's old for a Russian, but even if he is fanatical about his health, he cannot continue indefinitely. Strategic stability in Europe's future depends on treating P...

www.rand.org

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 1d

Very important analysis from @massdara.bsky.social
… Russia learning from its mistakes and adapting …
www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-r...

How Russia Recovered

What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 1d

My professional timeline right now is made up of four distinct silos wrt the principal global threat/challenge we face, in roughly this order:

1. AI

2. Russia

3. China

4. Climate

I'd reverse the order and eliminate the silos.

But most notably, Trump II has no plan for dealing with any of them.

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Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

For all the talk about Tomahawks to Ukraine, on top of surging demand elsewhere, components and labor remain critical bottlenecks to scaling up production. 2/

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

Great discussion by @soliman.bsky.social at @fpri.bsky.social. Even with increases in defense spending, it is the capacity to produce at scale which is going to matter. Do you have the supply chains, raw materials and components in place and the industrial capacity and the requisite labor force? 1/

Mohammed Soliman @soliman.bsky.social · 2d

I keep returning to America's scale problem, and I've decided it's more effective to frame it using defense terms to illustrate its concrete meaning.

www.fpri.org/article/2025...

America's Scale Problem - Foreign Policy Research Institute

There is a peculiar irony in watching the world's most technologically advanced military struggle with something as basic as making enough bullets. Yet this

www.fpri.org

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Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

A great discussion (and graphic) on how China operates its #roundabout system to obtain Iranian oil to circumvent sanctions. www.linkedin.com/posts/george...

#china #iran #sanctions | George Voloshin, CAMS CGSS

The WSJ has an interesting story out about how #China and #Iran use multi-billion-dollar barter schemes to conduct bilateral trade, in this particular example bartering Iranian crude oil for Chinese e...

www.linkedin.com

Nikolas Gvosdev @fpriorbis.bsky.social · 2d

More reports from frontlines in Ukraine discuss inability to move large numbers of vehicles/people close due to drones, need for light speedy vehicles to move quickly for small squads ... builds on analysis here but also raises questions about what U.S. is procuring. www.linkedin.com/pulse/trying...

Trying to Discern Military Lessons from Ukraine

I am trying to put assemble what I think are some of the key lessons militaries and national security establishments around the world should be learning from the way the conflict between Russia and Uk...

www.linkedin.com

Reposted by Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Mohammed Soliman @soliman.bsky.social · 2d

I keep returning to America's scale problem, and I've decided it's more effective to frame it using defense terms to illustrate its concrete meaning.

www.fpri.org/article/2025...

America's Scale Problem - Foreign Policy Research Institute

There is a peculiar irony in watching the world's most technologically advanced military struggle with something as basic as making enough bullets. Yet this

www.fpri.org

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