Gavekal
@gavekal.bsky.social
Gavekal is one of the leading independent providers of global investment research. It also advises a select range of funds and offers software solutions.
China’s real GDP growth continues to outpace that of the US, but its nominal growth is weak. This means that when measured at market exchange rates, China’s economy has actually declined relative to the US since around 2022.
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 PM
China’s real GDP growth continues to outpace that of the US, but its nominal growth is weak. This means that when measured at market exchange rates, China’s economy has actually declined relative to the US since around 2022.
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers.
November 6, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Initial questioning by US Supreme Court justices in a landmark trade policy case suggests that a majority believe the Trump administration unlawfully invoked emergency powers to impose broad tariffs on importers.
Amid the gloom in Europe around US tariffs, there are silver linings. A closer look at the growing web of US trade deals suggests an increase in European competitiveness against other foreign suppliers in the US market.
October 31, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Amid the gloom in Europe around US tariffs, there are silver linings. A closer look at the growing web of US trade deals suggests an increase in European competitiveness against other foreign suppliers in the US market.
Gavekal co-founder Anatole Kaletsky spoke at the Citywire Wealth Manager Retreat last week about US inflation, and why the UK needs a total policy overhaul. citywire.com/wealth-manag...
citywire.com
October 13, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Gavekal co-founder Anatole Kaletsky spoke at the Citywire Wealth Manager Retreat last week about US inflation, and why the UK needs a total policy overhaul. citywire.com/wealth-manag...
As US equities continue to make new highs on hopes for a technology-driven productivity miracle, investors are both nervous and fearful of missing out.
October 9, 2025 at 3:46 PM
As US equities continue to make new highs on hopes for a technology-driven productivity miracle, investors are both nervous and fearful of missing out.
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily dark due to the US government shutdown, investors and the Federal Reserve must rely on other employment data. Worryingly, ADP’s private payroll estimate showed its most significant contraction of this cycle. 🧵📈
October 6, 2025 at 12:35 PM
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily dark due to the US government shutdown, investors and the Federal Reserve must rely on other employment data. Worryingly, ADP’s private payroll estimate showed its most significant contraction of this cycle. 🧵📈
As the largest country by weight in MSCI’s benchmark for emerging market equities, the movements in Chinese stocks have had a disproportionately high impact on the rest of the EM universe. However, that close relationship seems to have changed in recent years.
September 30, 2025 at 1:39 PM
As the largest country by weight in MSCI’s benchmark for emerging market equities, the movements in Chinese stocks have had a disproportionately high impact on the rest of the EM universe. However, that close relationship seems to have changed in recent years.
Chinese households are increasingly opting to eat at home. Since the reopening from the pandemic, restaurant sales have risen at a slower pace than food and cooking oil sales, a rough proxy for at-home dining. The gap continues to widen in 2025.
September 26, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Chinese households are increasingly opting to eat at home. Since the reopening from the pandemic, restaurant sales have risen at a slower pace than food and cooking oil sales, a rough proxy for at-home dining. The gap continues to widen in 2025.
Donald Trump’s attempts to lean on Federal Reserve policymakers to cut US interest rates are a reminder that central bank independence is not set in stone, and that monetary policy everywhere is potentially at risk of political interference.
September 25, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Donald Trump’s attempts to lean on Federal Reserve policymakers to cut US interest rates are a reminder that central bank independence is not set in stone, and that monetary policy everywhere is potentially at risk of political interference.
The White House seems set on packing the Federal Reserve with figures who will deliver easier monetary policy. As such, the lead up to this week’s policy setting meeting has seen a burst of activity involving Fed personnel.
September 16, 2025 at 10:27 AM
The White House seems set on packing the Federal Reserve with figures who will deliver easier monetary policy. As such, the lead up to this week’s policy setting meeting has seen a burst of activity involving Fed personnel.
The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI ticked above the 50 no-change mark in August, for the first time since June 2022, ending a 37-month period of continuous contraction. While one data point does not make a trend, three macro drivers now point to this dynamic continuing. 📈🧵
September 9, 2025 at 2:28 PM
The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI ticked above the 50 no-change mark in August, for the first time since June 2022, ending a 37-month period of continuous contraction. While one data point does not make a trend, three macro drivers now point to this dynamic continuing. 📈🧵
There are several potential drivers of China’s recent equity-market rally, ranging from optimism about artificial intelligence to a reach for yield among household and companies. But the focus of attention is on the policy campaign against “involutionary competition.”
September 2, 2025 at 3:15 PM
There are several potential drivers of China’s recent equity-market rally, ranging from optimism about artificial intelligence to a reach for yield among household and companies. But the focus of attention is on the policy campaign against “involutionary competition.”
This week, US President Donald Trump met his South Korean counterpart at the White House in a summit intended to reset the two countries’ economic relations.
August 29, 2025 at 1:06 PM
This week, US President Donald Trump met his South Korean counterpart at the White House in a summit intended to reset the two countries’ economic relations.
China’s policymakers have rolled out stimulus measures to support consumption in the coming months, including child care subsidies, one year of free preschool, and consumer loan interest subsidies. 📈🧵
August 27, 2025 at 1:53 PM
China’s policymakers have rolled out stimulus measures to support consumption in the coming months, including child care subsidies, one year of free preschool, and consumer loan interest subsidies. 📈🧵
When Jerome Powell stands up on Friday to speak for the last time at the Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve chair, he will have one eye on his legacy as principal defender of the Fed’s independence in troubled times. 🧵📼
August 20, 2025 at 1:38 PM
When Jerome Powell stands up on Friday to speak for the last time at the Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve chair, he will have one eye on his legacy as principal defender of the Fed’s independence in troubled times. 🧵📼
When Jerome Powell speaks this Friday in Jackson Hole, investors will be looking for indications he is ready to cut rates at the September meeting. With the futures market pricing in an 85% probability of a cut, the risk is that Powell calls this into question. 📈🧵
August 19, 2025 at 2:38 PM
When Jerome Powell speaks this Friday in Jackson Hole, investors will be looking for indications he is ready to cut rates at the September meeting. With the futures market pricing in an 85% probability of a cut, the risk is that Powell calls this into question. 📈🧵
There is a difference between the typical story told about China in the West and the reality on the ground, says Tom Miller, who just came back from a month-long visit. 📼
August 14, 2025 at 3:28 PM
There is a difference between the typical story told about China in the West and the reality on the ground, says Tom Miller, who just came back from a month-long visit. 📼
China’s solar-module industry faces a supply glut, with domestic production capacity more than twice the country’s combined domestic installations and exports in 2024. 🧵📈
August 11, 2025 at 1:48 PM
China’s solar-module industry faces a supply glut, with domestic production capacity more than twice the country’s combined domestic installations and exports in 2024. 🧵📈
The past week has been eventful for those preoccupied with the US economy, with fairly weak data releases and the resignation of one Federal Reserve governor. 📼🧵
August 8, 2025 at 7:46 AM
The past week has been eventful for those preoccupied with the US economy, with fairly weak data releases and the resignation of one Federal Reserve governor. 📼🧵
The 15% tariff rate on US imports from the European Union will hit the old continent's exporting sector. But the broader economy can count on its domestic segment to mitigate the shock. 📈🧵
When Bad Is Good
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August 4, 2025 at 11:53 AM
The 15% tariff rate on US imports from the European Union will hit the old continent's exporting sector. But the broader economy can count on its domestic segment to mitigate the shock. 📈🧵
The NextGenerationEU initiative, the EU’s Covid-era public investment package, ends in August 2026. It has been instrumental in driving non-residential construction, yet over half the funds remain. The race is now on to utilize the remaining funds before it’s too late.
July 28, 2025 at 9:46 AM
The NextGenerationEU initiative, the EU’s Covid-era public investment package, ends in August 2026. It has been instrumental in driving non-residential construction, yet over half the funds remain. The race is now on to utilize the remaining funds before it’s too late.
In recent days, there’s been a flurry of trade “deals” between the US and Asian countries, ahead of the August 1 deadline to avoid the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs announced six months ago.
July 25, 2025 at 9:40 AM
In recent days, there’s been a flurry of trade “deals” between the US and Asian countries, ahead of the August 1 deadline to avoid the Trump administration’s punitive tariffs announced six months ago.
China’s government promised more fiscal stimulus this year as well as a different type of stimulus: a shift away from previous years' heavy reliance on low-return infrastructure projects. But bond sales data show a modest shift, partly towards support for the property market and financial stability.
July 21, 2025 at 2:11 PM
China’s government promised more fiscal stimulus this year as well as a different type of stimulus: a shift away from previous years' heavy reliance on low-return infrastructure projects. But bond sales data show a modest shift, partly towards support for the property market and financial stability.
The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling.
July 17, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The housing market has been a key driver of the US economy, yet it remains mired in gloom. With homes remaining unaffordable on most historical measures, end user demand is weak. This is leading to softening construction activity, as shown by permits for new starts still falling.
The Brics group of developing economies met for their annual summit in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday with US president Donald Trump threatening an extra 10% tariff on any countries “aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics.”
July 11, 2025 at 8:46 AM
The Brics group of developing economies met for their annual summit in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday with US president Donald Trump threatening an extra 10% tariff on any countries “aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of Brics.”