For more on China’s growth outlook and likely macro policies next year, see our latest macro update: research.gavekal.com/teaser/macro...

Chinese policymakers are likely to set a fairly ambitious growth target for next year, in part because they do not want to show economic weakness while negotiating with the US.

In this interview, US economist Will Denyer outlines the key issues at stake and considers Trump’s possible next steps if the government loses. Watch here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/video...

This should be particularly welcome for Europe’s structurally challenged energy-intensive and auto sectors, helping to stem further losses in market share. Read more here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/silve...

The ECB’s estimates of how recent US trade agreements mechanically affect the relative competitiveness of different regions actually point to a relative boost for European exporters.

In this video interview, US economist Will Denyer adopts a macro analysis to the question of whether the artificial intelligence boom has broadened into a bubble and, if so, how exposed investors might be to a rupture. research.gavekal.com/content/vide... (No paywall)

The recent decline in jobless claims is encouraging, but it is worth noting that many young graduates do not have prior work history and thus may not be eligible to claim unemployment benefits. Read more here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/more-...

That could be the result of the immigration crackdown reducing the supply of available workers. It is also possible that slack is starting to appear in the labor market, perhaps due to the temporary fiscal contraction from tariffs or AI causing unemployment, especially among young graduates.

The corollary is that, with investors increasingly managing their China portfolio independently to their EM ex-China portfolio, correlations between Chinese stocks and the rest of the EM universe are set to diminish further.

Investors have come to realize that the idiosyncratic risks and rewards embedded in individual Chinese stocks often have little bearing on the outlook for the rest of the EM universe.

The biggest factor is probably the economy: households are responding to slower income growth by shifting at the margin to cheaper meals at home. Moreover, a recent push to tighten restrictions on government dining means that the squeeze on restaurants is likely to continue in the coming months.

In this week’s interview, Gavekal European economist Cedric Gemehl assesses the vulnerability of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank in an age of rising political populism. Watch the full interview here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/video...

In this interview, US economist Will Denyer discusses what all this means for near-term interest rate setting and for governance at the central bank in the longer term: research.gavekal.com/teaser/video...

The benefits might be uneven as older, more energy-intensive industries could continue to struggle. Nonetheless, improving demand should provide a welcome cyclical tailwind, supporting even the most structurally challenged sectors. Read more here: research.gavekal.com/teaser/a-dem...

An upswing in bank lending, a ramp-up in public investment, and consumers looking to save less. The strengthening of goods demand will help remove a key obstacle clouding Europe’s industrial outlook.