‘The US stock market is basically as expensive as it has ever been.’ www.man.com/insights/roa...

Even in a bubble, nothing remains in our discipline that relies on a market collapse - I do expect that over the full-cycle, but it's enough merely for the market to fluctuate.

Short-term diagonals at the steepest valuations in history are less fun, but often resolve abruptly.

Meanwhile ...

Not our methodology, and nothing in our discipline relies on a collapse, but it's interesting that 30-day dispersion lines up with this ramp toward singularity.

"It’s not just the unusually sharp rise in dispersion that is worrisome right now; it’s also the fact that that dispersion is being driven by the stocks most sensitive to a turn in the broader credit cycle."

- Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report

Soundtrack for Sep comment: She Did It - Eric Carmen, 1977

Session roster is crazy!
Backup: Beach Boys Bruce Johnston & Brian Wilson
Burton Cummings - Guess Who
Nigel Olsson - Elton's drummer
Drums: Jeff Porcaro - Toto
Guitar: Andrew Gold (Lonely Boy)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cjxp...

That said, on the subject of seeing valuations at the most extreme point in history, yet seeing it not matter - we don't need to rely on a collapse to allow for the possibility. Here's what I wrote in March 2000 just before the NDX dropped by, well, 83%.

The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch.

– Didier Sornette

Excellent summation of AI usage:

"... the less you’re willing to think, the more vulnerable you are to having AI think for you, and the more you’re willing to think, the greater the opportunity you have for AI to leverage your insight....Our most urgent focus should be on that choice."

The hedge is the margin of safety. You may not know my 40 year record on that, but then, it admittedly was hidden under a bushel in this bubble

gotta love a regularity, particularly when you don't rely on it

depends on stock selection

’The singularity is not the date of a “crash.” Rather, it’s the point where the pitch of the advance reaches its extreme.‘ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

Surreal 😉

Bonus! Billboard Hot 100 from October 1977. Crazy how many classics these 70’s charts have week after week.
www.billboard.com/charts/hot-1...

A new market comment from @hussmanjp.bsky.social just dropped and it dispels a lot of myths. 👇🏼

www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

New comment is up! 🐳
www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

“what does not kill me makes me stronger“ - SARS-Cov2, as quoted by Nietzsche

“I won’t be ignored“ - SARS-Cov2, as played by Glenn Close

thankfully just infectivity

😉

… meanwhile on the artist formerly known as Twitter

‘The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is hovering around 37.5. Over 35 is ”the only cutoff point where every single time is negative.”‘ www.businessinsider.com/stock-market...

This is, because that is
This is not, because that is not.
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that.
- Buddha

We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.

Great Doodle today if you're a math geek 🤓
doodles.google/doodle/learn...

"it's funny 'cause it's true" - Homer Simpson