Stephen Kirchner
@insteconomics.bsky.social
Economist in Sydney, Australia. Personal account, usual disclaimers. If you like my short form content, you will just love my long form newsletter: https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/
Swiss executives gave Trump a specially engraved gold bar and a Rolex clock to help secure trade deal on.ft.com/4p4mPBS
Swiss politicians decry ‘gold bar diplomacy’ in Trump trade deal
Backlash over role played in talks by executives from companies including Rolex and Richemont
on.ft.com
November 27, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Swiss executives gave Trump a specially engraved gold bar and a Rolex clock to help secure trade deal on.ft.com/4p4mPBS
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
"I say we take off and nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."
November 27, 2025 at 2:30 AM
"I say we take off and nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
It's not just that the United States has stopped trying to promote liberal democratic ideas internationally. It's that the United States is actively trying to promote the contrary. It's trying to turn more countries into Hungary.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
U.S. to Press Europe and Other Allies on ‘Mass Migration,’ Document Says
www.nytimes.com
November 27, 2025 at 12:06 AM
It's not just that the United States has stopped trying to promote liberal democratic ideas internationally. It's that the United States is actively trying to promote the contrary. It's trying to turn more countries into Hungary.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Conference Board consumer sentiment the lowest since Trump announced his tariff depredations in April. As the US labour market cracks, we should see a narrowing in the divergence with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
November 25, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Conference Board consumer sentiment the lowest since Trump announced his tariff depredations in April. As the US labour market cracks, we should see a narrowing in the divergence with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Bloomberg maintains Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to be Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Board Chair to replace Jerome Powell www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Hassett Emerges as Frontrunner in Trump Fed Chair Audition
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen by advisers and allies of President Donald Trump as the frontrunner to be the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people famil...
www.bloomberg.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Bloomberg maintains Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to be Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Board Chair to replace Jerome Powell www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Bloomberg maintains Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to be Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Board Chair to replace Jerome Powell www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Hassett Emerges as Frontrunner in Trump Fed Chair Audition
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen by advisers and allies of President Donald Trump as the frontrunner to be the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people famil...
www.bloomberg.com
November 26, 2025 at 4:18 AM
Bloomberg maintains Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to be Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Board Chair to replace Jerome Powell www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Conference Board consumer sentiment the lowest since Trump announced his tariff depredations in April. As the US labour market cracks, we should see a narrowing in the divergence with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
November 25, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Conference Board consumer sentiment the lowest since Trump announced his tariff depredations in April. As the US labour market cracks, we should see a narrowing in the divergence with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Peter Conti-Brown reads Kevin Warsh so you don't have to petercontibrown.substack.com/i/179823130/...
Monday links: Does the Fed have "Broken Leadership?"
Thoughts on arguments that no one should take seriously from Kevin Warsh, the debates about bank supervision, the abuse of US sanctions, and a preliminary report on the Philadelphia Marathon
petercontibrown.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Peter Conti-Brown reads Kevin Warsh so you don't have to petercontibrown.substack.com/i/179823130/...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
FRB Chicago Economic Conditions Activity Index 6-12 month hiring expectations remain near record lows in November, with capex expectations also still underwater
November 24, 2025 at 10:44 PM
FRB Chicago Economic Conditions Activity Index 6-12 month hiring expectations remain near record lows in November, with capex expectations also still underwater
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
"There are accounts that are run by troll farms, that are run by nation states, and then there are accounts that are just trying to make a buck by pretending to be American." www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c...
How X's new location feature exposed big US politics accounts
Dozens of pro-Trump accounts are being accused of misleading followers after the social media site began showing user locations.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 25, 2025 at 1:33 AM
"There are accounts that are run by troll farms, that are run by nation states, and then there are accounts that are just trying to make a buck by pretending to be American." www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c...
FRB Chicago Economic Conditions Activity Index 6-12 month hiring expectations remain near record lows in November, with capex expectations also still underwater
November 24, 2025 at 10:44 PM
FRB Chicago Economic Conditions Activity Index 6-12 month hiring expectations remain near record lows in November, with capex expectations also still underwater
Peter Conti-Brown reads Kevin Warsh so you don't have to petercontibrown.substack.com/i/179823130/...
Monday links: Does the Fed have "Broken Leadership?"
Thoughts on arguments that no one should take seriously from Kevin Warsh, the debates about bank supervision, the abuse of US sanctions, and a preliminary report on the Philadelphia Marathon
petercontibrown.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:38 PM
Peter Conti-Brown reads Kevin Warsh so you don't have to petercontibrown.substack.com/i/179823130/...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
"This has created a system where it makes financial sense for people from the entire world to specifically target Americans with highly engaging, divisive content. It pays more. "
www.404media.co/americas-pol...
www.404media.co/americas-pol...
America’s Polarization Has Become the World's Side Hustle
The 'psyops' revealed by X are entirely the fault of the perverse incentives created by social media monetization programs.
www.404media.co
November 24, 2025 at 6:42 PM
"This has created a system where it makes financial sense for people from the entire world to specifically target Americans with highly engaging, divisive content. It pays more. "
www.404media.co/americas-pol...
www.404media.co/americas-pol...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey measure of current economic conditions at a record low in November, levels normally associated with major downturns, crisis and plague. Even applying the Cummings and Tedeschi correction for the switch to the online survey only gets you to around 70
November 22, 2025 at 4:54 AM
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey measure of current economic conditions at a record low in November, levels normally associated with major downturns, crisis and plague. Even applying the Cummings and Tedeschi correction for the switch to the online survey only gets you to around 70
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey measure of current economic conditions at a record low in November, levels normally associated with major downturns, crisis and plague. Even applying the Cummings and Tedeschi correction for the switch to the online survey only gets you to around 70
November 22, 2025 at 4:54 AM
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey measure of current economic conditions at a record low in November, levels normally associated with major downturns, crisis and plague. Even applying the Cummings and Tedeschi correction for the switch to the online survey only gets you to around 70
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
This week’s newsletter open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...
Tariff shocks are aggregate demand shocks
Plus, the 20th anniversary of AUSFTA; and Renee Fry-McKibbin on full employment
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:28 PM
This week’s newsletter open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...
This week’s newsletter open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...
Tariff shocks are aggregate demand shocks
Plus, the 20th anniversary of AUSFTA; and Renee Fry-McKibbin on full employment
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:28 PM
This week’s newsletter open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL
The growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers
Beijing’s GDP figures have drawn scrutiny for years but the questions have become more acute
on.ft.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:32 PM
“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
10 years ago "House of Debt" was published to wide acclaim and became the go-to explainer about the housing boom and financial crisis.
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
November 18, 2025 at 8:29 PM
10 years ago "House of Debt" was published to wide acclaim and became the go-to explainer about the housing boom and financial crisis.
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?
“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL
The growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers
Beijing’s GDP figures have drawn scrutiny for years but the questions have become more acute
on.ft.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:32 PM
“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
It’s genuinely good to see a conservative think tank like Hudson advocating for RFA and RFE/RL: www.hudson.org/human-rights...
The Case for Radio Free Asia and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Ensuring Information Access for Closed Societies
Introduction In March 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order aimed at closing the United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM).1 This decision affected Radio Free Asia (RFA) and Rad...
www.hudson.org
November 18, 2025 at 6:57 PM
It’s genuinely good to see a conservative think tank like Hudson advocating for RFA and RFE/RL: www.hudson.org/human-rights...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it.
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
OSF
osf.io
November 18, 2025 at 2:48 AM
The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it.
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it.
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
OSF
osf.io
November 18, 2025 at 2:48 AM
The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it.
osf.io/preprints/os...
osf.io/preprints/os...
Reposted by Stephen Kirchner
For thirty years I worked in the post-Soviet successor states in Central Asia and observed over and over again precisely the cycle that Bill Kristol describes. Corruption leads to authoritarianism, directly. The path is utterly predictable.
November 17, 2025 at 12:02 AM
For thirty years I worked in the post-Soviet successor states in Central Asia and observed over and over again precisely the cycle that Bill Kristol describes. Corruption leads to authoritarianism, directly. The path is utterly predictable.