Kevin Erdmann
@kevinerdmann.bsky.social
I discovered the surprising story of what really happened in 2008 (not enough housing) and accidentally became a housing policy guy.
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/
https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1G
Sorry, I'm repeating myself, but I'm now seeing posts from the supply-truthers claiming that there is nothing unusual about current housing costs.
Folks. We engineered a financial collapse in 2008 because housing costs were so clearly outside the historic norm.
1/2
Folks. We engineered a financial collapse in 2008 because housing costs were so clearly outside the historic norm.
1/2
November 26, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Sorry, I'm repeating myself, but I'm now seeing posts from the supply-truthers claiming that there is nothing unusual about current housing costs.
Folks. We engineered a financial collapse in 2008 because housing costs were so clearly outside the historic norm.
1/2
Folks. We engineered a financial collapse in 2008 because housing costs were so clearly outside the historic norm.
1/2
It just goes to show how short our attention spans are today.
It's only been like 2 or 3 months since that glass bridge tragically collapsed, and nobody is talking about it. No follow-up in the media. We all just moved on to the next thing.
It's only been like 2 or 3 months since that glass bridge tragically collapsed, and nobody is talking about it. No follow-up in the media. We all just moved on to the next thing.
November 26, 2025 at 6:57 PM
It just goes to show how short our attention spans are today.
It's only been like 2 or 3 months since that glass bridge tragically collapsed, and nobody is talking about it. No follow-up in the media. We all just moved on to the next thing.
It's only been like 2 or 3 months since that glass bridge tragically collapsed, and nobody is talking about it. No follow-up in the media. We all just moved on to the next thing.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
I think we can safely say that the Leavitt's brother called ICE on his ex, the mother of his child, and I have to say: I have no desire to respect, find common ground or share the country with these monsters.
“After Ferreira was detained, Dos Santos Rodrigues said Michael Leavitt Sr. and his father, Bob Leavitt, reached out to her.”
“‘They just kept saying, ‘Tell her to self-deport,’” she recalled. “Self-deport to where? Brazil is not her home.’” www.bostonglobe.com/2025/11/26/m...
“‘They just kept saying, ‘Tell her to self-deport,’” she recalled. “Self-deport to where? Brazil is not her home.’” www.bostonglobe.com/2025/11/26/m...
‘Brazil is not her home.’ Mother of Karoline Leavitt’s nephew, brought to US as child, detained by ICE. - The Boston Globe
Bruna Ferreira, 33, was brought to the United States as a child in 1998. She is now in removal proceedings in Louisiana.
www.bostonglobe.com
November 26, 2025 at 2:54 PM
I think we can safely say that the Leavitt's brother called ICE on his ex, the mother of his child, and I have to say: I have no desire to respect, find common ground or share the country with these monsters.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
YTD through August the US is average 4.0 housing starts per 1,000 population. In Canada that figure is 6.2.
November 26, 2025 at 3:50 PM
YTD through August the US is average 4.0 housing starts per 1,000 population. In Canada that figure is 6.2.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
CA11 affirms lower court order tossing of Trump’s cases against Hillary Clinton and sanctioning his lawyers for bringing bad faith and frivolous claims.
Unanimous, bipartisan panel (GWB/Trump/Biden)
media.ca11.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub...
Unanimous, bipartisan panel (GWB/Trump/Biden)
media.ca11.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub...
![C. The District Court Did Not Abuse Its Discretion in Issuing Sanctions Based on Its Inherent Authority.
Federal courts have the inherent authority to "fashion an appropriate sanction for conduct which abuses the judicial process." Chambers v. NASCO, Inc., 501 U.S. 32, 44-45 (1991). This authority arises from the "control necessarily vested in courts to manage their own affairs so as to achieve the orderly and expeditious disposition of cases." Link v. Wabash R.R. Co., 370 U.S. 626, 630-31
(1962). To "unlock[] that inherent power," a court must find that a party or his attorney acted in "bad faith." Sciaretta v. Lincoln Nat'l Life Ins. Co., 778 F.3d 1205, 1212 (11th Cir. 2015). On a finding of bad faith, the district court may "assess attorney's fees." Id.
The district court ordered Trump and Habba (along with her law firm) to pay nearly $1 million in attorney's fees under its inherent authority. On appeal, Trump and Habba present several arguments against the sanctions. We discuss and reject each in turn.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:beirch5u3d3ybvuct27mtyxd/bafkreiapdlxp67gpzih2tqjvz4276mqtsq3f6ajrfukzygbtv5v7glyht4@jpeg)
November 26, 2025 at 2:59 PM
CA11 affirms lower court order tossing of Trump’s cases against Hillary Clinton and sanctioning his lawyers for bringing bad faith and frivolous claims.
Unanimous, bipartisan panel (GWB/Trump/Biden)
media.ca11.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub...
Unanimous, bipartisan panel (GWB/Trump/Biden)
media.ca11.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub...
See. Since agglomeration is mostly irrelevant to our housing cost problem, you’re all giving Stancil dunks. He’s wrong and you’re all making him feel right by showing how you’re wrong. You’re all wrong.
Bluesky: “Obviously the housing crisis is the only reason anyone would choose to live outside of NYC”
Actual Americans: “Vegas, baby!”
Actual Americans: “Vegas, baby!”
November 26, 2025 at 2:27 AM
See. Since agglomeration is mostly irrelevant to our housing cost problem, you’re all giving Stancil dunks. He’s wrong and you’re all making him feel right by showing how you’re wrong. You’re all wrong.
This seems meaningful. Is Canada fixing their housing problem?
November 25, 2025 at 11:53 PM
This seems meaningful. Is Canada fixing their housing problem?
I was at the bank today and the young banker said he just bought his first house with a rate buy down from a homebuilder and he plans to move up in a few years and keep that one to rent out. He looked sheepish and said, "I guess I'm part of the problem."
1/
1/
November 25, 2025 at 11:14 PM
I was at the bank today and the young banker said he just bought his first house with a rate buy down from a homebuilder and he plans to move up in a few years and keep that one to rent out. He looked sheepish and said, "I guess I'm part of the problem."
1/
1/
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Everything wrong with everything housing in a nutshell:
“Nearby residents who opposed the proposal cited all the variances the proposal needed…” to build housing identical to that surrounding it
“Nearby residents who opposed the proposal cited all the variances the proposal needed…” to build housing identical to that surrounding it
Zoning board approves a new triple decker, in Dorchester
www.universalhub.com/2025/zoning-...
#Boston #housing
www.universalhub.com/2025/zoning-...
#Boston #housing
November 25, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Everything wrong with everything housing in a nutshell:
“Nearby residents who opposed the proposal cited all the variances the proposal needed…” to build housing identical to that surrounding it
“Nearby residents who opposed the proposal cited all the variances the proposal needed…” to build housing identical to that surrounding it
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
The Fed can lower interest rates — but can they lower the mortgage application REJECTION rate?
(via Ben Emons)
(via Ben Emons)
November 25, 2025 at 3:34 PM
The Fed can lower interest rates — but can they lower the mortgage application REJECTION rate?
(via Ben Emons)
(via Ben Emons)
Was recently reminded of this citation in my book "Shut Out".
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
November 25, 2025 at 5:48 AM
Was recently reminded of this citation in my book "Shut Out".
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
Imagine, with hindsight, thinking this.
I get called a contrarian for having differed with this.
It was 2015.
"In many places, we already have the housing. It’s just not functioning as housing for the people who live there."
This was a post on my LinkedIn feed. Part of the evidence was that there are 44,000 single-family homes "owned by investors" (iow, rentals) in their market.
Why are people like this?
This was a post on my LinkedIn feed. Part of the evidence was that there are 44,000 single-family homes "owned by investors" (iow, rentals) in their market.
Why are people like this?
November 25, 2025 at 3:10 AM
"In many places, we already have the housing. It’s just not functioning as housing for the people who live there."
This was a post on my LinkedIn feed. Part of the evidence was that there are 44,000 single-family homes "owned by investors" (iow, rentals) in their market.
Why are people like this?
This was a post on my LinkedIn feed. Part of the evidence was that there are 44,000 single-family homes "owned by investors" (iow, rentals) in their market.
Why are people like this?
I’m seeing what appear to be new communities from Homebuilders that are showing 10% price discounts right out of the gate, so it’s not menu price stickiness.
I assume this is because it’s still advantageous to be able to discount with a rate buydown, and this is how to do it?
I assume this is because it’s still advantageous to be able to discount with a rate buydown, and this is how to do it?
November 25, 2025 at 1:53 AM
I’m seeing what appear to be new communities from Homebuilders that are showing 10% price discounts right out of the gate, so it’s not menu price stickiness.
I assume this is because it’s still advantageous to be able to discount with a rate buydown, and this is how to do it?
I assume this is because it’s still advantageous to be able to discount with a rate buydown, and this is how to do it?
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
🚨We analyzed 138 million geocoded property tax records to quantify how municipal boundaries spatially overlap onto economic segregation in every US metro area—creating disparities in localities’ ability to fund public goods. And we made an interactive map of our results! [1/16]
November 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
🚨We analyzed 138 million geocoded property tax records to quantify how municipal boundaries spatially overlap onto economic segregation in every US metro area—creating disparities in localities’ ability to fund public goods. And we made an interactive map of our results! [1/16]
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
November 24, 2025 at 10:20 PM
It’s a popular misconception that Arizona doesn’t have 4 seasons.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
November 24, 2025 at 9:28 PM
It’s a popular misconception that Arizona doesn’t have 4 seasons.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
Right now it’s spring. We‘ll have autumn around February. Then it will be spring again in April. Then it will be summer from May to next November.
There is an interesting new paper on the cultural downsides of reduced homeownership.
But, you know me. I have to complain about it.
Americans giving up on homeownership
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
But, you know me. I have to complain about it.
Americans giving up on homeownership
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Americans giving up on homeownership
Tyler Cowen cited a new paper titled, “‘Giving Up’: The Impact of Decreasing Housing Affordability on Consumption, Work Effort, and Investment”.
open.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
There is an interesting new paper on the cultural downsides of reduced homeownership.
But, you know me. I have to complain about it.
Americans giving up on homeownership
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
But, you know me. I have to complain about it.
Americans giving up on homeownership
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
It’s so telling that the NYT headline focuses on the partisan politics of this rather than the moral rot
November 23, 2025 at 11:49 PM
It’s so telling that the NYT headline focuses on the partisan politics of this rather than the moral rot
If RealPage had 100% market penetration, the end game apparently envisioned by its critics would be that every new apartment building would be built with 2 extra units, perpetually kept empty, so that they could withhold supply from the market to keep rents higher.
Make it make sense.
Make it make sense.
November 23, 2025 at 8:33 PM
If RealPage had 100% market penetration, the end game apparently envisioned by its critics would be that every new apartment building would be built with 2 extra units, perpetually kept empty, so that they could withhold supply from the market to keep rents higher.
Make it make sense.
Make it make sense.
When historians are looking back at the early signs of cultural decline in the American empire, I hope they know to include the abomination that is the Boise State football field.
November 23, 2025 at 12:50 AM
When historians are looking back at the early signs of cultural decline in the American empire, I hope they know to include the abomination that is the Boise State football field.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
"That's okay, you can just say yes. It's easier than explaining." One of the all-time moments in political comedy.
November 22, 2025 at 7:30 PM
"That's okay, you can just say yes. It's easier than explaining." One of the all-time moments in political comedy.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
I almost cried to see a man who'd happily seize your or my private property, would trample constitutional liberties without thinking twice, and has zero fiscal responsibility, being welcome in the Oval Office. And it didn't help matters that Zohran Mamdani was there right next to him.
November 22, 2025 at 6:45 PM
I almost cried to see a man who'd happily seize your or my private property, would trample constitutional liberties without thinking twice, and has zero fiscal responsibility, being welcome in the Oval Office. And it didn't help matters that Zohran Mamdani was there right next to him.
This is funny, but I doubt that any lack of evidence will reduce the legal harassment of realpage because it’s not motivated by reason and evidence.
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.
My pre trends are incredible!
My pre trends are incredible!
November 22, 2025 at 6:23 PM
This is funny, but I doubt that any lack of evidence will reduce the legal harassment of realpage because it’s not motivated by reason and evidence.
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.
My pre trends are incredible!
My pre trends are incredible!
November 22, 2025 at 5:29 PM
I think this is mostly San Francisco finally shrugging off the pandemic, but it is *really* funny that rent prices in San Francisco shot up *immediately* after the city banned RealPage and other algorithmic price setting software.
My pre trends are incredible!
My pre trends are incredible!
Reposted by Kevin Erdmann
Left-wing vs right-wing populism in one picture.
This couldn't have been more perfect. Ignoring tradeoffs and blaming the main outgroup as the solution to every societal problem.
This couldn't have been more perfect. Ignoring tradeoffs and blaming the main outgroup as the solution to every societal problem.
November 22, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Left-wing vs right-wing populism in one picture.
This couldn't have been more perfect. Ignoring tradeoffs and blaming the main outgroup as the solution to every societal problem.
This couldn't have been more perfect. Ignoring tradeoffs and blaming the main outgroup as the solution to every societal problem.