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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 5h

www.wsj.com/economy/fede...

Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.

The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.

www.wsj.com

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 21h

Podcast with Fed whisperer @nicktimiraos.bsky.social , Alex Frangos and Chelsey Dulaney:

Suggestions for a name please! I like More Money Than Pod myself....

www.wsj.com/podcasts/tak...

Trump Is Meddling With the Fed. Why Don’t Markets Care? - WSJ's Take On the Week - WSJ Podcasts

In both economics and politics, there is a widespread view that central banks should be free of political pressure, with cautionary tales around the world of what happens when politicians meddle: out ...

www.wsj.com

James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 21h

Political street protest can take unexpected forms in France - attached to a random wall

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

Gold vs bonds: Two markets, two completely different stories

www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

Gold Screams ‘Debasement Trade.’ Bonds Say Otherwise.

If investors expect debasement, it is very odd that the bond market’s best guess at long-run inflation is basically unchanged.

www.wsj.com

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

New fave description of JPM, via BBC:

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: "As one of Dorset's biggest private sector employers, JP Morgan Chase expanding their Bournemouth campus is fantastic news for the local economy and people who live here."

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Reposted by James Mackintosh

Saoirse McHugh @saoirsemc.bsky.social · 1d

😭 help . I planted a beefsteak tomato thinking it was going to grow bits of cattle flesh but it was just tomato. I'm so confused, the EU parliament needs to help me. I've been tricked and mislead

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

As English as Queen Victoria: "So your father's German, you're half German and you married a German?" (Should be mother, not father, but they studied in the Fens so forgive them)

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

Shame the piece appears to confuse monetary and fiscal policy though

James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

The best taxes are the ones paid only by other people

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

As an aside, the original HODL was nothing to do with inflation fears and everything to do with the author knowing he was no good at trading - as well as a lot of whisky

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

Unless people stop losing their bitcoin, eventually it will all be lost. No more is created, so it can't be replaced. One day it will all be inaccessible, but I don't know how even to begin estimating the rate, so might be 10 years or 10,000 years.

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

I dont know either. But eventually it should all be lost....

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

Agreed. But many held it for much much longer, nothing to do with latest inflation fears. (Also a lot is just lost - estimates go as high as 30%!)

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

That doesn't make it one tho. People claimed that last time, and it very much didn't behave like that because it turned out every other buyer was purely speculating.

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

Include OneTab saved tabs and that's out by a factor of about 100, and growing all the time. Definitely will read one day. Perhaps shortly after I finish Netflix.

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

It's a joke. Look at the article.

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

Bitcoin's mainly about willingness to speculate, not protection against inflation. Here it is against an ETF of spec tech stocks (again, two-axis warning!):

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 1d

So gold might be a trade about inflation/debasement. Bitcoin might be a trade about inflation/debasement. But they can't *both* be, at least this year, given they didn't move in any way together. Even with two axes there's just no link between how they've moved: (daily correlation ~0)

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 2d

(For now)

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 2d

One is fine: gdp.

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 2d

Worth remembering if Badenoch's stamp duty abolition policy appeals that the last Tory govt raised top rate of stamp duty from 4% to 12%

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 2d

Does politics and international relations count?

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 2d

Overall the chart will only surprise Greens and Labour left who argue based on anecdote and US data that the UK has become wildly unequal and dominated by top 1%

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 2d

Looked it up: WAS includes DB estimates now using SCAPE discount rate, so break in methodology. Seems odd that it suggests now less unequal than the series that ignores DB

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James Mackintosh @jmackin2.bsky.social · 2d

The footnote says what it calls the distributional national accts doesnt, not sure about other series

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