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Reposted by Joe Allen

Richard Martin @mimosacymru.bsky.social · 19d

Furthermore, a huge vindication for Mark Drakeford here, on two fronts:
1) UK Labour have been salivating at the prospect of a devastating Welsh Labour loss in the new PR list system coming in next year, so they can create a cautionary tale about PR and further argue the merits of FPTP. Well… (1/6)

Richard Martin @mimosacymru.bsky.social · 19d

It sounds mad to acknowledge this but we’re seeing the most successful party in the democratic world crumble.
Welsh Labour have won every domestic election for 103 years and are now slumping to a distant 3rd in FPTP and close to the threshold of not winning *any* Caerphilly-esque seats in #Senedd26

Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 19d

Massive Caerphilly by-election poll!

Survation/Camlas poll makes it a two horse race:

Reform 41.61%
PC 38.29%
Lab 12.37%
Con 3.65%
LD 1.35%
Green 2.72%

Labour previously had an 18 point majority here and 46% of the vote.

The Tory vote has collapsed. 70% of their voters now going to Reform.

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Reposted by Joe Allen

Jennifer Williams @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social · Sep 13

FT mag piece from me: Spent a long time looking into the Britannia hotel chain, beneficiaries of a vast amount of taxpayer money via the asylum system

on.ft.com/47HEE46

The crumbling seaside palaces at the centre of Britain’s asylum crisis

[FREE TO READ] How one hotelier built an empire from beloved community assets — and a government struggling to cope with a surge in migration

on.ft.com

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Jul 29

Hard to disagree with ex-Plaid MP Cynog Dafis' assessment of the party's approach to energy policy.

"...loitering in its historic comfort zone of easy opposition."

nation.cymru/news/plaid-c...

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Jul 21

Just read the second part and it's much worse.

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Reposted by Joe Allen

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · Jul 8

I am writing a policy pamphlet. Here are all the ways to demonstrate I don't really have a policy answer, that I need to avoid:

a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Jun 5

The best album is, of course, Up. But no one wants to face up to this.

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Jun 1

Data is from London, but a useful insight for the never-ending argument in Cardiff about holding gigs in public parks.

Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · May 19

2,430 Romanians in Wales voted in their presidential election at polling stations in Swansea and Cardiff yesterday.

And (thanks to Romania's excellent election website) we can see that they favoured the defeated populist candidate George Simion (53%-47%).

Reposted by Joe Allen

Richard Martin @mimosacymru.bsky.social · May 12

My bet is that under-estimation of the Reform vote also applies to all Welsh (and perhaps also Scots) polling ahead of next year’s national election.

Conversations with friends here in the valleys suggests many can’t wait to vote Reform to give Labour etc a bloody eye. Lot of unhappiness about.

Britain Elects @britainelects.com · May 10

One week on from #LE2025

Our local election forecast was a disaster. It understated Reform in every quarter. Here's what we learned:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · May 12

Who in Labour is currently making the case for a stronger devolution settlement and what is their plan?

Luke James @lukeejames2.bsky.social · May 12

Senedd arithmetic aside, when there is a consensus this broad across Welsh society, new powers will have to be devolved. It is amazing though that UK Labour would rather reserve power for as long as possible and see Plaid lead a coalition than devolve power now and help ensure Welsh Labour lead it

Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · May 6

Where would 18% put Welsh Labour in the history of Senedd list votes? Marginally more popular than Rod Richards' Welsh Tories in 1999.

Reposted by Joe Allen

Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · Apr 30

DSIT has responded, and so I have written a very hasty blog about whether we can find £45bn of savings from AI being implemented in government.
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2025/04/30/t...

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · May 3

There is a broad consensus in Wales against energy infrastructure between Reform-Plaid-Tories that will command 70ish Senedd seats (out of 96) next year.

So this is most likely where we'll end up too👇

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Apr 24

A spluttering economic system desperately looking for growth? A society flirting with a Christian revival?

This is the UK's Francis Spufford era.

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TUC Cymru @tuccymru.bsky.social · Apr 14

🚨 Swydd ar gael! We're hiring!

We're looking for a Policy Officer to deliver impactful policy, research and lobbying for TUC Cymru and workers across Wales.

📜 Permanent full time role
💷 58K
📍 Cathedral Rd, Cardiff
💻 50% WFH/Office split

Apply by Tuesday 6th May.

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Reposted by Joe Allen

Lewis Eldred @lewiseldred.bsky.social · Mar 31

Happy Bus Services (Wales) Bill day to all who celebrate! 🚌

...we've been waiting a while for this piece of legislation. The lucky buggers in south west Wales will be the first to see the new franchise system rolled out in 2027.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Buses in Wales to be brought under public control

Ministers have promised a

www.bbc.co.uk

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Mar 25

This is really interesting and wide-ranging (downplaying indy; sceptical on Future Gen Act impact; narrower idea of Nation of Sanctuary).

Bit below caught my eye - suggesting Welsh Labour has gone too far in tackling second homes.

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Mar 25

Yesterday: New research shows Ceredigion is least affordable place in the UK for first time buyers.

Today: "Save New Quay Car Park" campaign is seeking to stop 30 new affordable homes being built on a car park.

There is, of course, no link between these stories.

NationCymru @nation.cymru · Mar 25

A petition launched following the submission of plans for an affordable housing scheme in a seaside town car, claims locals are afraid to support the scheme due to ‘a backlash from second-homers’

Petition claims locals are not backing affordable homes plans due to fears of 'second home-owners' backlash

Bruce Sinclair, local democracy reporter A second petition, following the submission of plans for an affordable housing scheme in a seaside town car park has been launched, claiming locals are afraid ...

wp.me

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Mar 7

Looking at the Mahmood/Sentencing Council dispute, regardless of the merits, it looks like an example of a Minister asserting power and saying "I don't like this output from the system. Change it or I will change how the system works".

Does this ever happen in Welsh Gov?

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Mar 6

Hard to listen to this series and not reach the conclusion that Welsh devolution needs a hard reset.

Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Mar 2

It is perfectly reasonable to expect the Prince of Wales to speak fluent/near fluent Welsh.

Similarly, it should be expected of any candidate for First Minister.

Sky News @news.sky.com · Mar 1

William, the Prince of Wales, delivers St David's Day message in Welsh

In his first message delivered in Welsh, the Prince of Wales has wished the country a "Happy St David's Day".

news.sky.com

Reposted by Joe Allen

Lewis Eldred @lewiseldred.bsky.social · Feb 24

Listening back to last week's episode of Gwleidydda on the potential impact of Reform on next year's Senedd election. Its worth looking at the where those 2019 Labour voters went last year

🟢 20% went to PC and the Greens

❌ 7% didn't vote

🟦 less than 7% went to Reform

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Feb 22

The exodus from the Senedd is ultimately a healthy thing.

Opportunity now:

- Broaden candidate base beyond usual suspects so the Senedd better reflects working life in Wales.

- Set out a more ambitious Welsh policy platform freed from lingering inter-personal dynamics that inhibit discussion.

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Joe Allen @joeallen82.bsky.social · Feb 17

Gwynedd and Pembrokeshire took action against locals being priced out in favour of second home owners.

And it's working.

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