Jon Ayre
@jonayre.uk
I've been an engineer, software developer, architect, director & CTO. Now I'm a hands-on consultant doing business and tech strategy. Creator of the business evolution map. Father & Husband. It WILL go wrong & it CAN be fixed. He/him.
Reposted by Jon Ayre
On the first day of Christmas my true love gave to me, a partridge in a pear tree. Ate it.
December 1, 2025 at 8:27 AM
On the first day of Christmas my true love gave to me, a partridge in a pear tree. Ate it.
Remember when we used to adopt technology in industry based on evidence backed business cases rather than feels?
December 1, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Remember when we used to adopt technology in industry based on evidence backed business cases rather than feels?
Reposted by Jon Ayre
Are there? Can you name them? I ask this genuinely because I worked in tech comms for years and I honestly can't think of a single AI tech proponent who can meet both the "useful" and "energy efficient" standards, even with tools specifically designed to help with climate and environmental projects.
November 30, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Are there? Can you name them? I ask this genuinely because I worked in tech comms for years and I honestly can't think of a single AI tech proponent who can meet both the "useful" and "energy efficient" standards, even with tools specifically designed to help with climate and environmental projects.
Please, Apple, do this one right.
Neuromancer by @greatdismal.bsky.social finally gets a TV series. Could be amazing, but expectations will be high from all of us who read these books when we were young.
Count Zero was a personal fave.
Neuromancer by @greatdismal.bsky.social finally gets a TV series. Could be amazing, but expectations will be high from all of us who read these books when we were young.
Count Zero was a personal fave.
Apple TV's New Cyberpunk Show That Was Called 'Unfilmable' Is the Sci-Fi Event of the Decade
One book-to-screen adaptation that was once thought impossible is finally coming to Apple TV next year--and we couldn't be more excited.
www.cbr.com
November 30, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Please, Apple, do this one right.
Neuromancer by @greatdismal.bsky.social finally gets a TV series. Could be amazing, but expectations will be high from all of us who read these books when we were young.
Count Zero was a personal fave.
Neuromancer by @greatdismal.bsky.social finally gets a TV series. Could be amazing, but expectations will be high from all of us who read these books when we were young.
Count Zero was a personal fave.
Reposted by Jon Ayre
User needs first
Service design second
Operating model third
Technology fourth
This order is still reversed way too often.
Service design second
Operating model third
Technology fourth
This order is still reversed way too often.
November 26, 2025 at 11:36 AM
User needs first
Service design second
Operating model third
Technology fourth
This order is still reversed way too often.
Service design second
Operating model third
Technology fourth
This order is still reversed way too often.
@system76.bsky.social Any news on when the 6.17 kernel issue is likely to be resolved? I'm currently booting PopOS into 6.16 because 6.17 won't boot.
November 27, 2025 at 1:45 PM
@system76.bsky.social Any news on when the 6.17 kernel issue is likely to be resolved? I'm currently booting PopOS into 6.16 because 6.17 won't boot.
"Coding LLMs will replace software developers"
Nope. Software development is first and foremost a thinking exercise with a bit of creativity thrown in for good measure.
LLMs definitely don't think, and they're regenerative, not creative.
They're a tool for developers, not instead of developers.
Nope. Software development is first and foremost a thinking exercise with a bit of creativity thrown in for good measure.
LLMs definitely don't think, and they're regenerative, not creative.
They're a tool for developers, not instead of developers.
November 27, 2025 at 11:22 AM
"Coding LLMs will replace software developers"
Nope. Software development is first and foremost a thinking exercise with a bit of creativity thrown in for good measure.
LLMs definitely don't think, and they're regenerative, not creative.
They're a tool for developers, not instead of developers.
Nope. Software development is first and foremost a thinking exercise with a bit of creativity thrown in for good measure.
LLMs definitely don't think, and they're regenerative, not creative.
They're a tool for developers, not instead of developers.
Reposted by Jon Ayre
Reposted by Jon Ayre
Looks like my prediction regarding the Ineos Grenadier diversification move is coming to fruition.
Further validation of the Business Evolution Map as a prediction tool.
(Too many words for Bluesky so I posted it on LinkedIn)
Further validation of the Business Evolution Map as a prediction tool.
(Too many words for Bluesky so I posted it on LinkedIn)
Is the business you lead (or work for) considering a diversification move for your business? There's an offer in this post for some free advice on the matter so please read to the end.
Some… | Jo...
Is the business you lead (or work for) considering a diversification move for your business? There's an offer in this post for some free advice on the matter so please read to the end.
Some predictio...
www.linkedin.com
November 22, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Looks like my prediction regarding the Ineos Grenadier diversification move is coming to fruition.
Further validation of the Business Evolution Map as a prediction tool.
(Too many words for Bluesky so I posted it on LinkedIn)
Further validation of the Business Evolution Map as a prediction tool.
(Too many words for Bluesky so I posted it on LinkedIn)
Looks like my prediction regarding the Ineos Grenadier diversification move is coming to fruition.
Further validation of the Business Evolution Map as a prediction tool.
(Too many words for Bluesky so I posted it on LinkedIn)
Further validation of the Business Evolution Map as a prediction tool.
(Too many words for Bluesky so I posted it on LinkedIn)
Is the business you lead (or work for) considering a diversification move for your business? There's an offer in this post for some free advice on the matter so please read to the end.
Some… | Jo...
Is the business you lead (or work for) considering a diversification move for your business? There's an offer in this post for some free advice on the matter so please read to the end.
Some predictio...
www.linkedin.com
November 22, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Looks like my prediction regarding the Ineos Grenadier diversification move is coming to fruition.
Further validation of the Business Evolution Map as a prediction tool.
(Too many words for Bluesky so I posted it on LinkedIn)
Further validation of the Business Evolution Map as a prediction tool.
(Too many words for Bluesky so I posted it on LinkedIn)
No.
He must know this is nonsense, surely?
He must know this is nonsense, surely?
Databricks CEO says AGI is already here — and Silicon Valley just keeps moving the goalposts
Ali Ghodsi says AGI is already here, but the tech industry is simply raising the bar on superintelligence.
www.businessinsider.com
November 20, 2025 at 7:09 PM
No.
He must know this is nonsense, surely?
He must know this is nonsense, surely?
Reposted by Jon Ayre
Early-Bird tickets are now on sale for next year's Agile Manchester conference (13-14th May): agilemanchester.net/tickets
"Agile Manchester is designed to create and nurture ‘change agents’. We provide actionable insights, practical tools and new ideas"
/ @agilemanc.bsky.social
"Agile Manchester is designed to create and nurture ‘change agents’. We provide actionable insights, practical tools and new ideas"
/ @agilemanc.bsky.social
Tickets
2026 Super Early Bird tickets now available
agilemanchester.net
November 17, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Early-Bird tickets are now on sale for next year's Agile Manchester conference (13-14th May): agilemanchester.net/tickets
"Agile Manchester is designed to create and nurture ‘change agents’. We provide actionable insights, practical tools and new ideas"
/ @agilemanc.bsky.social
"Agile Manchester is designed to create and nurture ‘change agents’. We provide actionable insights, practical tools and new ideas"
/ @agilemanc.bsky.social
The text talks of using AI to discover "causal links" in historical content.
The problem with that is that LLMs don't discover causal links; they find semantic links. You might think this is the same thing but it's not.
Connecting things semantically is how you become convincingly wrong.
The problem with that is that LLMs don't discover causal links; they find semantic links. You might think this is the same thing but it's not.
Connecting things semantically is how you become convincingly wrong.
I imagine this will be delightfully controversial, but ‘to caulk gaps in incomplete scholarship and large datasets’. Is that just a fancy way of saying ‘make stuff up’?
November 15, 2025 at 8:48 AM
The text talks of using AI to discover "causal links" in historical content.
The problem with that is that LLMs don't discover causal links; they find semantic links. You might think this is the same thing but it's not.
Connecting things semantically is how you become convincingly wrong.
The problem with that is that LLMs don't discover causal links; they find semantic links. You might think this is the same thing but it's not.
Connecting things semantically is how you become convincingly wrong.
A better analogy would be "AI is to intelligence what a photograph of a person is to the actual person"
In other words, LLMs appear intelligent because they reproduce the output already created by intelligent humans.
They are little more than a snapshot.
In other words, LLMs appear intelligent because they reproduce the output already created by intelligent humans.
They are little more than a snapshot.
In @nytopinion.nytimes.com
“A.I. is no less a form of intelligence than digital photography is a form of photography,” the philosopher Barbara Gail Montero writes in a guest essay. “And now A.I. is on its way to doing something even more remarkable: becoming conscious.”
“A.I. is no less a form of intelligence than digital photography is a form of photography,” the philosopher Barbara Gail Montero writes in a guest essay. “And now A.I. is on its way to doing something even more remarkable: becoming conscious.”
Opinion | A.I. Is Already Intelligent. This Is How It Becomes Conscious.
Skeptics overlook how our concepts change.
nyti.ms
November 10, 2025 at 7:38 AM
A better analogy would be "AI is to intelligence what a photograph of a person is to the actual person"
In other words, LLMs appear intelligent because they reproduce the output already created by intelligent humans.
They are little more than a snapshot.
In other words, LLMs appear intelligent because they reproduce the output already created by intelligent humans.
They are little more than a snapshot.
For generations people have been persuaded that the ability to regurgitate information is intelligence.
No surprise then that they're so easily fooled into thinking an LLM exhibits intelligence.
IMO, intelligence requires the ability to use knowledge to solve novel problems. LLMs can't do this.
No surprise then that they're so easily fooled into thinking an LLM exhibits intelligence.
IMO, intelligence requires the ability to use knowledge to solve novel problems. LLMs can't do this.
November 10, 2025 at 7:13 AM
For generations people have been persuaded that the ability to regurgitate information is intelligence.
No surprise then that they're so easily fooled into thinking an LLM exhibits intelligence.
IMO, intelligence requires the ability to use knowledge to solve novel problems. LLMs can't do this.
No surprise then that they're so easily fooled into thinking an LLM exhibits intelligence.
IMO, intelligence requires the ability to use knowledge to solve novel problems. LLMs can't do this.
Reposted by Jon Ayre
The article doesn't say it, but this cool solar forecasting software uses no large language models, the thing people usually think of when they hear "AI." It uses a fairly simple convolutional neural network that's readily trained on a laptop. No data centers or LLMs involved. Research paper here:
November 9, 2025 at 12:29 PM
The article doesn't say it, but this cool solar forecasting software uses no large language models, the thing people usually think of when they hear "AI." It uses a fairly simple convolutional neural network that's readily trained on a laptop. No data centers or LLMs involved. Research paper here:
AI will, of course, survive and even thrive when the bubble bursts, just like the world of dot com did.
But there will be economic fallout for years.
But there will be economic fallout for years.
November 6, 2025 at 6:27 AM
AI will, of course, survive and even thrive when the bubble bursts, just like the world of dot com did.
But there will be economic fallout for years.
But there will be economic fallout for years.
Businessess hoping to use AI to automate job roles and cut cost by removing people are going to get badly burnt.
When all the costs are added up, AI automation will prove (as all automation does) to cost as much as the people who did the jobs before.
When all the costs are added up, AI automation will prove (as all automation does) to cost as much as the people who did the jobs before.
November 4, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Businessess hoping to use AI to automate job roles and cut cost by removing people are going to get badly burnt.
When all the costs are added up, AI automation will prove (as all automation does) to cost as much as the people who did the jobs before.
When all the costs are added up, AI automation will prove (as all automation does) to cost as much as the people who did the jobs before.
People claim LLMs are like human brains & their output should be seen as a sign they think & reason
This position can only be reached if your ignorance of how LLMs work matches your ignorance of how the brain works
LLMs are single shot processors with no mechanisms for inference or awareness
This position can only be reached if your ignorance of how LLMs work matches your ignorance of how the brain works
LLMs are single shot processors with no mechanisms for inference or awareness
Understanding neural networks – Part 2: Hidden neurons, troublesome feedback - Jon Ayre
There are many different ways you can connect artificial neurons together to create a working neural network. In part 2 of this guide I’ll explain the more common approaches and discuss their strength...
jonayre.uk
November 3, 2025 at 12:08 PM
People claim LLMs are like human brains & their output should be seen as a sign they think & reason
This position can only be reached if your ignorance of how LLMs work matches your ignorance of how the brain works
LLMs are single shot processors with no mechanisms for inference or awareness
This position can only be reached if your ignorance of how LLMs work matches your ignorance of how the brain works
LLMs are single shot processors with no mechanisms for inference or awareness
Your regular reminder that "valued at" and "worth" mean different things.
NVIDIA is now 16% of the US economy, in case you're wondering if your labor has any remaining value
The Value of NVIDIA Now Exceeds an Unprecedented 16% of U.S. GDP
With 16% of GDP riding on a single chipmaker, the U.S. economy is dangerously over-leveraged — and Wall Street is betting blind
medium.com
November 3, 2025 at 7:31 AM
Your regular reminder that "valued at" and "worth" mean different things.
Is this a US thing? Having worked with tech people for several decades in the UK, I haven't found them to be any less capable in non-STEM areas than others in the workforce.
And in many companies, the issue with the people making the bad tech decisions is that they know very little about tech.
And in many companies, the issue with the people making the bad tech decisions is that they know very little about tech.
Ironically that post reveals the other meaning of the Torment Nexus, which is that STEM only education left a generation of tech guys with no ability to interpret text
November 2, 2025 at 8:46 AM
Is this a US thing? Having worked with tech people for several decades in the UK, I haven't found them to be any less capable in non-STEM areas than others in the workforce.
And in many companies, the issue with the people making the bad tech decisions is that they know very little about tech.
And in many companies, the issue with the people making the bad tech decisions is that they know very little about tech.
We're deep into the AI adoption conversation now, and there are as many opinions as there are people.
So how about a look back on some thoughts from 2020 to see if I was barking up the right tree:
So how about a look back on some thoughts from 2020 to see if I was barking up the right tree:
The Business Evolution Map, Part 4
Industry is struggling to cope with the sudden absence of people from essential processes, and automation is forefront in their minds.
www.equalexperts.com
November 1, 2025 at 6:30 PM
We're deep into the AI adoption conversation now, and there are as many opinions as there are people.
So how about a look back on some thoughts from 2020 to see if I was barking up the right tree:
So how about a look back on some thoughts from 2020 to see if I was barking up the right tree:
People often hate agile because what they've been told is agile and made to do is definitely not agile and absolutely something to hate
However, there are people who hate true agile and I believe they hate it because test and learn repeatedly and quickly shows their idea was wrong
However, there are people who hate true agile and I believe they hate it because test and learn repeatedly and quickly shows their idea was wrong
November 1, 2025 at 1:31 PM
People often hate agile because what they've been told is agile and made to do is definitely not agile and absolutely something to hate
However, there are people who hate true agile and I believe they hate it because test and learn repeatedly and quickly shows their idea was wrong
However, there are people who hate true agile and I believe they hate it because test and learn repeatedly and quickly shows their idea was wrong
Them: You live in an age where AI knows everything about you, can predict your inner thoughts and anticipate your needs!
Also them:
Also them:
November 1, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Them: You live in an age where AI knows everything about you, can predict your inner thoughts and anticipate your needs!
Also them:
Also them:
This has become a regular business practice and AI hype has now provided an accepted argument for why it can be done without harming the long term viability of the company.
Regardless of AIs utility as an automation technology, cuts of this nature are the start or continuation of a downward spiral
Regardless of AIs utility as an automation technology, cuts of this nature are the start or continuation of a downward spiral
October 29, 2025 at 7:06 AM
This has become a regular business practice and AI hype has now provided an accepted argument for why it can be done without harming the long term viability of the company.
Regardless of AIs utility as an automation technology, cuts of this nature are the start or continuation of a downward spiral
Regardless of AIs utility as an automation technology, cuts of this nature are the start or continuation of a downward spiral