Justin S. Mankin
@jsmankin.bsky.social
climate scientist || documenting and predicting climate impacts || professor @dartmouth
https://geography.dartmouth.edu/people/justin-s-mankin
https://jsmankin.github.io/
https://geography.dartmouth.edu/people/justin-s-mankin
https://jsmankin.github.io/
Pinned
Justin S. Mankin
@jsmankin.bsky.social
· Apr 23
Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability - Nature
A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel companies, whi...
www.nature.com
Can scientists trace climate losses back to the emissions from individual fossil fuel companies?
Yes, we can.
The inimitable @ccallahan45.bsky.social and I provide an 'end-to-end' attribution framework that can be applied in many climate accountability contexts:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Yes, we can.
The inimitable @ccallahan45.bsky.social and I provide an 'end-to-end' attribution framework that can be applied in many climate accountability contexts:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Dartmouth is hiring climate science postdocs through the prestigious Provost's Fellowship!
Info: apply.interfolio.com/178090
Applications are due February 15, 2026.
Come join our collaborative and supportive climate community! Reach out to me ([email protected]) with questions.
Info: apply.interfolio.com/178090
Applications are due February 15, 2026.
Come join our collaborative and supportive climate community! Reach out to me ([email protected]) with questions.
Apply - Interfolio
{{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
apply.interfolio.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Dartmouth is hiring climate science postdocs through the prestigious Provost's Fellowship!
Info: apply.interfolio.com/178090
Applications are due February 15, 2026.
Come join our collaborative and supportive climate community! Reach out to me ([email protected]) with questions.
Info: apply.interfolio.com/178090
Applications are due February 15, 2026.
Come join our collaborative and supportive climate community! Reach out to me ([email protected]) with questions.
Exciting postdoc opening @dartmouthartsci.bsky.social! Work at the intersection of climate science, heat impacts, and risk management with Klaus Keller (engineering) and me. Apply here,
apply.interfolio.com/176582
apply.interfolio.com/176582
Apply - Interfolio
{{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
apply.interfolio.com
October 28, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Exciting postdoc opening @dartmouthartsci.bsky.social! Work at the intersection of climate science, heat impacts, and risk management with Klaus Keller (engineering) and me. Apply here,
apply.interfolio.com/176582
apply.interfolio.com/176582
The @ametsoc.org Climate Variability & Change (CVC) Committee is recruiting new members! If you’re passionate about advancing climate science and service, I encourage you to get involved. It is incredibly rewarding.
Apply here: www.ametsoc.org/ams/get-invo...
Apply here: www.ametsoc.org/ams/get-invo...
Climate Variability and Change
The CVC committee divides among its members the responsibilities, which include organization of the Climate Variability and Change Symposium at the AMS annual meeting, various awards (AMS and STAC), s...
www.ametsoc.org
September 24, 2025 at 7:00 PM
The @ametsoc.org Climate Variability & Change (CVC) Committee is recruiting new members! If you’re passionate about advancing climate science and service, I encourage you to get involved. It is incredibly rewarding.
Apply here: www.ametsoc.org/ams/get-invo...
Apply here: www.ametsoc.org/ams/get-invo...
EPA plans to roll back GHG reporting—just as we learn US transport emissions have cost the US economy $68B: zenodo.org/records/1708...
The proposal isn't deregulation, it’s a tax on Americans through unchecked pollution.
The proposal isn't deregulation, it’s a tax on Americans through unchecked pollution.
September 13, 2025 at 3:02 PM
EPA plans to roll back GHG reporting—just as we learn US transport emissions have cost the US economy $68B: zenodo.org/records/1708...
The proposal isn't deregulation, it’s a tax on Americans through unchecked pollution.
The proposal isn't deregulation, it’s a tax on Americans through unchecked pollution.
This important work is very consilient with our attribution of extreme heat to carbon majors in @nature.com earlier this year: tinyurl.com/nhffeezv
It is a great thing for science when independent groups with independent methods come to the same conclusions.
It is a great thing for science when independent groups with independent methods come to the same conclusions.
September 10, 2025 at 8:56 PM
This important work is very consilient with our attribution of extreme heat to carbon majors in @nature.com earlier this year: tinyurl.com/nhffeezv
It is a great thing for science when independent groups with independent methods come to the same conclusions.
It is a great thing for science when independent groups with independent methods come to the same conclusions.
With the EPA targeting the Endangerment Finding, @ccallahan45.bsky.social, Alex Gottlieb, & I conducted an end-to-end attribution of climate damages from U.S. power sector emissions.
The result: $78 billion in climate losses to the U.S. economy over 1973–2023.
See here: zenodo.org/records/1687...
The result: $78 billion in climate losses to the U.S. economy over 1973–2023.
See here: zenodo.org/records/1687...
August 14, 2025 at 2:13 PM
With the EPA targeting the Endangerment Finding, @ccallahan45.bsky.social, Alex Gottlieb, & I conducted an end-to-end attribution of climate damages from U.S. power sector emissions.
The result: $78 billion in climate losses to the U.S. economy over 1973–2023.
See here: zenodo.org/records/1687...
The result: $78 billion in climate losses to the U.S. economy over 1973–2023.
See here: zenodo.org/records/1687...
Last year, Alex Gottlieb and I showed the concerning nonlinear snow loss with warming that occurs around -8°C (www.nature.com/articles/s41...).
This year, we show why: it is a simple counting exercise of days above freezing. Our latest in @agu.org Water Resources Research: doi.org/10.1029/2024...
This year, we show why: it is a simple counting exercise of days above freezing. Our latest in @agu.org Water Resources Research: doi.org/10.1029/2024...
Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss - Nature
Snowpack reconstructions for major river basins in the Northern Hemisphere reveal that the snowpack has declined in almost half of the basins, with roughly one-third of the declines attributable to hu...
www.nature.com
August 13, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Last year, Alex Gottlieb and I showed the concerning nonlinear snow loss with warming that occurs around -8°C (www.nature.com/articles/s41...).
This year, we show why: it is a simple counting exercise of days above freezing. Our latest in @agu.org Water Resources Research: doi.org/10.1029/2024...
This year, we show why: it is a simple counting exercise of days above freezing. Our latest in @agu.org Water Resources Research: doi.org/10.1029/2024...
Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
Please consider joining our #AGU session on beautifully complex Water-Energy-Carbon interactions with a broad scope from theory to applied science.
Invited talks by Julia Green @juliakgreen.bsky.social and Gabe Kooperman.
Invited talks by Julia Green @juliakgreen.bsky.social and Gabe Kooperman.
July 26, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Please consider joining our #AGU session on beautifully complex Water-Energy-Carbon interactions with a broad scope from theory to applied science.
Invited talks by Julia Green @juliakgreen.bsky.social and Gabe Kooperman.
Invited talks by Julia Green @juliakgreen.bsky.social and Gabe Kooperman.
Come do a postdoc with our group at Dartmouth, documenting and projecting climate impacts!
Applications will be evaluated until the position is filled.
Salary, benefits, and other details here:
apply.interfolio.com/168708
Reach out to me ([email protected]) with questions.
Applications will be evaluated until the position is filled.
Salary, benefits, and other details here:
apply.interfolio.com/168708
Reach out to me ([email protected]) with questions.
Apply - Interfolio
{{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
apply.interfolio.com
June 5, 2025 at 5:53 PM
Come do a postdoc with our group at Dartmouth, documenting and projecting climate impacts!
Applications will be evaluated until the position is filled.
Salary, benefits, and other details here:
apply.interfolio.com/168708
Reach out to me ([email protected]) with questions.
Applications will be evaluated until the position is filled.
Salary, benefits, and other details here:
apply.interfolio.com/168708
Reach out to me ([email protected]) with questions.
Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
OUT: You can’t connect extreme weather to climate change
5Mn AGO: You can’t connect extreme weather to fossil-fuel companies
IN: 🎁🔗⤵️
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
5Mn AGO: You can’t connect extreme weather to fossil-fuel companies
IN: 🎁🔗⤵️
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Scientists Tally Oil Majors’ Climate Damage With Eye to Legal Liability
New research breaks down economic losses from global warming and attributes them to individual companies. It could bolster lawsuits against big emitters.
www.bloomberg.com
April 29, 2025 at 3:21 PM
OUT: You can’t connect extreme weather to climate change
5Mn AGO: You can’t connect extreme weather to fossil-fuel companies
IN: 🎁🔗⤵️
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
5Mn AGO: You can’t connect extreme weather to fossil-fuel companies
IN: 🎁🔗⤵️
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
Foundation-funded postdoc funding opportunity to work in WA state! Interested in applying to work with me on climate on land or global carbon cycle dynamics? Reach out! Info sessions in May and June, due date June 26. www.wrfseattle.org/grants/wrf-p...
Postdoctoral Fellowships - Washington Research Foundation
Fellowship Details Fellowships include three years of salary support for the postdoc at an eligible research institution in Washington state. The salary for the first year is $80,000, increasing to […...
www.wrfseattle.org
April 28, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Foundation-funded postdoc funding opportunity to work in WA state! Interested in applying to work with me on climate on land or global carbon cycle dynamics? Reach out! Info sessions in May and June, due date June 26. www.wrfseattle.org/grants/wrf-p...
We are—as a nation—intentionally blinding ourselves at the precise moment we need to see our planetary insult most clearly.
April 25, 2025 at 5:02 PM
We are—as a nation—intentionally blinding ourselves at the precise moment we need to see our planetary insult most clearly.
Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
This could be a big deal for the hundreds of climate lawsuits underway around the world. @jsmankin.bsky.social and @ccallahan45.bsky.social link emissions from specific fossil fuel companies to trillions of dollars in damages.
“I think this is going to be the future of climate litigation." 🧪🔌💡
“I think this is going to be the future of climate litigation." 🧪🔌💡
Can climate science attribute economic damage to major polluters?
Climate researchers argue their science has advanced enough to directly link emissions from particular companies to damages from specific extreme weather events
www.newscientist.com
April 23, 2025 at 6:43 PM
This could be a big deal for the hundreds of climate lawsuits underway around the world. @jsmankin.bsky.social and @ccallahan45.bsky.social link emissions from specific fossil fuel companies to trillions of dollars in damages.
“I think this is going to be the future of climate litigation." 🧪🔌💡
“I think this is going to be the future of climate litigation." 🧪🔌💡
Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
apnews.com/article/clim... world's biggest companies have caused $28 trillion in climate damage, a new study estimates
The world's biggest companies have caused $28 trillion in climate damage, a new study estimates
A new study estimates that the world’s biggest corporations have caused $28 trillion in climate damage, which is a shade less than the sum of all goods and services produced in the United States last ...
apnews.com
April 23, 2025 at 3:28 PM
apnews.com/article/clim... world's biggest companies have caused $28 trillion in climate damage, a new study estimates
Can scientists trace climate losses back to the emissions from individual fossil fuel companies?
Yes, we can.
The inimitable @ccallahan45.bsky.social and I provide an 'end-to-end' attribution framework that can be applied in many climate accountability contexts:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Yes, we can.
The inimitable @ccallahan45.bsky.social and I provide an 'end-to-end' attribution framework that can be applied in many climate accountability contexts:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability - Nature
A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel companies, whi...
www.nature.com
April 23, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Can scientists trace climate losses back to the emissions from individual fossil fuel companies?
Yes, we can.
The inimitable @ccallahan45.bsky.social and I provide an 'end-to-end' attribution framework that can be applied in many climate accountability contexts:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Yes, we can.
The inimitable @ccallahan45.bsky.social and I provide an 'end-to-end' attribution framework that can be applied in many climate accountability contexts:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
"The universities control the knowledge in our society (...) We have to agressivly attack the universities (...). Fundamental lies that feminism is liberating (...) There is wisdom in what Nixon said, the professors are the enemy "
bryanalexander.org/politics/the...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FR6...
bryanalexander.org/politics/the...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FR6...
J.D. Vance | The Universities are the Enemy | National Conservatism Conference II
YouTube video by National Conservatism
www.youtube.com
March 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
"The universities control the knowledge in our society (...) We have to agressivly attack the universities (...). Fundamental lies that feminism is liberating (...) There is wisdom in what Nixon said, the professors are the enemy "
bryanalexander.org/politics/the...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FR6...
bryanalexander.org/politics/the...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FR6...
Reposted by Justin S. Mankin
I receive numerous requests from journalists regarding the current situation with the Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change.
I am not involved in the work of the IPCC for the 7th Assessment Cycle (AR7).
1/...
I am not involved in the work of the IPCC for the 7th Assessment Cycle (AR7).
1/...
February 25, 2025 at 2:09 PM
I receive numerous requests from journalists regarding the current situation with the Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change.
I am not involved in the work of the IPCC for the 7th Assessment Cycle (AR7).
1/...
I am not involved in the work of the IPCC for the 7th Assessment Cycle (AR7).
1/...
This headline is an astounding (and gross) editorial sleight of hand.
February 24, 2025 at 3:02 AM
This headline is an astounding (and gross) editorial sleight of hand.
Water memories are short in the American West. Just two years after the 2020–23 drought, the Southwest drifts back to its climatically preferred state: drought.
This 2021 op-ed feels relevant as we approach the 2025 dry season with low snowpack and reservoirs: shorturl.at/Uvsyv
This 2021 op-ed feels relevant as we approach the 2025 dry season with low snowpack and reservoirs: shorturl.at/Uvsyv
February 6, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Water memories are short in the American West. Just two years after the 2020–23 drought, the Southwest drifts back to its climatically preferred state: drought.
This 2021 op-ed feels relevant as we approach the 2025 dry season with low snowpack and reservoirs: shorturl.at/Uvsyv
This 2021 op-ed feels relevant as we approach the 2025 dry season with low snowpack and reservoirs: shorturl.at/Uvsyv
High CO2 is expected to boost runoff via plant responses, but our results challenge this. Conditioning plant-driven runoff changes on plant-forced precipitation changes, we find runoff declines are as common as increases, with CO2-driven runoff boosts over just 5% of land: shorturl.at/4zM7N
Projected runoff declines from plant physiological effects on precipitation - Nature Water
This study shows that Earth system models disagree on the spatial distribution of plant-induced precipitation changes but indicate that plant responses are as likely to decrease runoff as they are to ...
www.nature.com
January 20, 2025 at 1:27 PM
High CO2 is expected to boost runoff via plant responses, but our results challenge this. Conditioning plant-driven runoff changes on plant-forced precipitation changes, we find runoff declines are as common as increases, with CO2-driven runoff boosts over just 5% of land: shorturl.at/4zM7N
Identifying climate impacts requires data. And data is reflective of the power, values, and priorities of the data collector.
MLB has high-speed cameras to isolate warming's influence on a batted ball, but no data on heat stress of ballpark staff & patrons.
What of the impacts we cannot track?
MLB has high-speed cameras to isolate warming's influence on a batted ball, but no data on heat stress of ballpark staff & patrons.
What of the impacts we cannot track?
In April of last year, we published a paper in BAMS showing that warmer air temperatures increase home runs in MLB. Now, a companion analysis has been released showing the same relationship in Japanese baseball! Very cool stuff. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
December 7, 2024 at 1:55 PM
Identifying climate impacts requires data. And data is reflective of the power, values, and priorities of the data collector.
MLB has high-speed cameras to isolate warming's influence on a batted ball, but no data on heat stress of ballpark staff & patrons.
What of the impacts we cannot track?
MLB has high-speed cameras to isolate warming's influence on a batted ball, but no data on heat stress of ballpark staff & patrons.
What of the impacts we cannot track?
Human-caused increases in extreme heat caused ~$30T in losses over 1992-2013, mostly in the low-income world least culpable for warming.
$300B/yr in climate financing is 17 times less than the costs of but one climate hazard, estimated with data a decade cooler.
Paper here: tinyurl.com/3psfnt4p
$300B/yr in climate financing is 17 times less than the costs of but one climate hazard, estimated with data a decade cooler.
Paper here: tinyurl.com/3psfnt4p
November 24, 2024 at 12:11 AM
Human-caused increases in extreme heat caused ~$30T in losses over 1992-2013, mostly in the low-income world least culpable for warming.
$300B/yr in climate financing is 17 times less than the costs of but one climate hazard, estimated with data a decade cooler.
Paper here: tinyurl.com/3psfnt4p
$300B/yr in climate financing is 17 times less than the costs of but one climate hazard, estimated with data a decade cooler.
Paper here: tinyurl.com/3psfnt4p
A low-grade pan-continental drought has emerged across the US over the last several months, with 49 states experiencing moderate or worse drought. Global warming makes the exceptional the rule, stressing emergency management practices: shorturl.at/dhVWW
November 21, 2024 at 7:54 PM
A low-grade pan-continental drought has emerged across the US over the last several months, with 49 states experiencing moderate or worse drought. Global warming makes the exceptional the rule, stressing emergency management practices: shorturl.at/dhVWW
As the governments of the world commit humanity to sailing by 1.5°C, a friendly reminder that our level of societal risk aversion—not science—remains the major uncertainty in setting the carbon budget. From Mathez & Smerdon, 2018, itself adapted from Meinshausen et al., 2009.
November 19, 2024 at 5:08 PM
As the governments of the world commit humanity to sailing by 1.5°C, a friendly reminder that our level of societal risk aversion—not science—remains the major uncertainty in setting the carbon budget. From Mathez & Smerdon, 2018, itself adapted from Meinshausen et al., 2009.