Lightbucket
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lightbucket.bsky.social
Lightbucket
@lightbucket.bsky.social
130 followers 360 following 830 posts
20 years in academic physics, then 20 years running a physics-based tech company, now drifting towards semi-retirement. Looking at: decarbonisation; energy; Russia's war in Ukraine. Blog on Wordpress: https://lightbucket.wordpress.com/
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6/6

Of the six largest European economies, the two with the highest grid emissions are Russia and Germany, because of the very high fossil fuel share in their electricity mixes.

Germany has the highest share of coal-powered electricity generation, and Russia has the second highest.
5/6

By way of comparison, here's the electricity mix and the carbon intensity of electricity generation of the six largest European economies in 2024, with the EU added for context.

France is the only one of the six largest European economies with sub-50g electricity emissions.
4/6

Here's the aggregate electricity mix of all eight of the sub-100g countries combined.

Nuclear and hydro still dominate the mix, with a 78% share between them,
but wind is growing fast, with 10.7%.
(Coal barely shows up with a 0.26% share).


Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
3/6

Here's the carbon intensity of electricity generation for all six sub-50g countries, and the two sub-100g countries, along with the electricity mix that gets them there:


Refs:
Ember: ember-energy.org/data/electri...
Our World in Data: ourworldindata.org/grapher/carb...
2/6

As of 2024, six European countries have a carbon intensity of electricity generation below 50 g CO₂e/kWh:

 • Albania
 • Iceland
 • Norway
 • Sweden
 • Switzerland
 • France

Another two, Finland and Slovakia, have emissions below 100 g CO₂e/kWh.

👇
Carbon intensity of electricity generation
Measured in grams of carbon dioxide-equivalents emitted per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. Emissions are estimated on a lifecycle basis, including upstream, supply-chain and manufacturing sta...
ourworldindata.org
1/6

Britain's Clean Power 2030 Action Plan sets an emissions target for electricity generation of under 50 g CO₂e/kWh by 2030.

There are six European countries already below this target.
Who are they, and how did they get there?

🧵


Ref: Clean Power 2030 Action Plan
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Dutch 1 GW offshore wind tender gets no bids.

 ❝ [Climate minister] Hermans said the result confirms that the market for offshore wind energy has “entered a phase where government support is crucial to prevent development from stalling.” ❞

 ❝ From 2026, subsidies will be available again.❞
No bids submitted for new Dutch North Sea wind farm tender - DutchNews.nl
No energy company has come forward to build and operate a new offshore wind farm off the Dutch coast, outgoing climate minister Sophie Hermans has told MPs. The tender for the Nederwiek I-A site, abou...
www.dutchnews.nl
6/6

Here's the Offshore Wind subsidy per MWh by year.
It was negative in 2022, during the gas price crisis, but otherwise the subsidy has been positive.

Looking ahead, DESNZ forecasts that market prices will fall, but offshore wind from AR3/AR4 will come online to reduce average CfD strike prices.
5/6

The main AR3 projects, Dogger Bank A, B & C (3.6 GW) and Sofia (1.4 GW), will start generating in 2026 & 2027.

Dogger Bank A is due to start its CfD on 31 Dec. 2025. It will be selling its electricity at a negative subsidy of -£30.67/MWh.
World’s largest offshore wind farm produces power for the first time - Dogger Bank Wind Farm
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hails Dogger Bank’s role in bolstering energy security, creating jobs, lowering costs, and achieving Net Zero. First power achieved at UK’s Dogger Bank as the first of 27...
doggerbank.com
4/6

The 5.5GW of Offshore Wind capacity awarded in AR3 at lower strike prices is just starting to come online.

Almost all the Offshore Wind capacity now generating is from AR2 and earlier, when strike prices were higher.

Here's the Q1 2026 forecast subsidy for Offshore Wind from pre-AR1 to AR3:
3/6

Here are the UK CfD strike prices for Offshore Wind for all Allocation Rounds.
The chart show the ASP, i.e. each auction's price cap, and the strike prices awarded. The strike prices are inflation linked, and are shown in 2024 prices, as used for AR7.

Strike prices fell sharply in AR3 and AR4.
2/6

In Q4 2025, the technology-averaged strike price of Offshore Wind is £146.18/MWh,
and the CfD strike price averaged over all CfD generation is £147/MWh.

Why so high?
1/6

A 🧵 on offshore wind CfDs.

In Q4 2025, Offshore Wind accounts for 71% of UK CfD generation,
and 72% of CfD payments,
ie over twice as much as everything else put together.
Offshore Wind dominates Britain's renewable electricity.


Ref: LCCC Dashboard www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc...
Reposted by Lightbucket
ladies and gentlemen...we got him
2/2

And here's the National Audit Office's report on Hinkley Point C, from June 2017:
www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...

The CfD strike price depends very heavily on investors' return:
👇
1/2

The National Audit Office has a Sizewell C study as a work in progress.

Scheduled: Winter 2025/26

Scope:
• DESNZ’s work & spending on Sizewell C to date
• the terms of the deal agreed and whether this provides value for money
• remaining risks to value for money that DESNZ will need to manage
Sizewell C - NAO work in progress
The study will support transparency and Parliamentary scrutiny of Sizewell C, and will review DESNZ’s current and future work on the project.
www.nao.org.uk
Reposted by Lightbucket
On a typical day, 3% of people who complete Wordle get it in one guess. Which means around one person in 30 completes Wordle on incognito mode, then goes back in a second time and gets it “in one”.

There’s something oddly fascinating about this.
Reposted by Lightbucket
Government has published one of those quiet but important documents that might get overlooked as it is not 'newsy'. The headline finding is that £1 of public R&D investment generates £8 in net economic benefits for the UK over the long term
www.gov.uk/government/p...
The value of public R&D
www.gov.uk
Reposted by Lightbucket
Thames Water is such a basket case—it’s hard to keep up.

2024 = its worst ever score for environmental performance, yet bills were up massively this April. As usual, it's the worst of all the water companies too.

A £260m refund is a start but the whole industry looks increasingly irredeemable.
Water companies told to refund £260m to customers.
But bills are still due to rise to fund improvements to water infrastructure.
www.bbc.co.uk
Reposted by Lightbucket
Increasingly I think the point of a wealth tax is not to raise money but to create space for raising income tax. The lethal thing in politics is when the compliant middle class feels like they have been taken for mugs; if you want to get money out of them, someone else needs to pay more too.
Reposted by Lightbucket
AR7 analysis: How much offshore wind will the govt be able to contract at the upcoming CfD auction?

It depends on the "strike price", but roughly…

6GW at £70/MWh
5GW at £80/MWh
4GW at £90/MWh

THREAD
1/6
I see this post has attracted an unusual level of interest for my Bluesky efforts (2 likes), so I've added a 6-post thread about CfDs and the endlessly fascinating details of the Interim Levy Rate:

🧵👇
1/6

Here's a thread about Contracts for Difference, how the payments are calculated, and what the actual resulting costs are.

All electricity suppliers pay a per-MWh charge, the "Interim Levy Rate", to the Low Carbon Contracts Company to cover forecast payments from the LCCC to CfD generators.

🧵
6/6

Here's a history of the Interim Levy Rate.

It hit zero from Q3 2021 to Q4 2022, during the gas price crisis (when the ILR had a price floor of £0/MWh and couldn't go negative),
but has otherwise ranged between £5/MWh and £12/MWh.


Ref: EMR Settlement www.emrsettlement.co.uk/document/set...
5/6

Here's the LCCC's forecast Interim Levy Rate for the next 2 years.
It stays in the £10-£12/MWh range, it's not expected to fall significantly.

The new Nuclear RAB Interim Levy Rate (paying for Sizewell C) is shown for comparison.


Ref: LCCC dp.lowcarboncontracts.uk/dataset/adva...