Lightbucket
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lightbucket.bsky.social
Lightbucket
@lightbucket.bsky.social
20 years in academic physics, then 20 years running a physics-based tech company, now drifting towards semi-retirement.

Looking at:
decarbonisation; energy;
Russia's war in Ukraine.

Blog on Wordpress: https://lightbucket.wordpress.com/
Reposted by Lightbucket
It’s below $64k now. It was $72k this morning. 🍿
Please, my magic bean, it is very sick
February 5, 2026 at 9:21 PM
1/2

Kpler predicts that France's nuclear output will ramp down to lower levels this year than last (at around midday each day) to make way for rising solar generation.
France’s nuclear power modulation – ramping reactors up and down to meet demand and optimise fuel usage – will likely increase by 11% to 35 TWh this year, up from 31.5 TWh in 2025, Kpler power analyst Alessandro Armenia said on Thursday. montelnews.com/news/0ce52b4...
French nuclear modulation to rise 11% to 35 TWh – Kpler
Kpler forecasts France’s nuclear modulation will rise 11% to about 35TWh this year as renewables, notably solar, shift output to midday and force nuclear adjustments.
montelnews.com
February 5, 2026 at 3:34 PM
Russia's LNG exports to the EU, 2025:

 • Yamal LNG accounted for 14.3% of the EU’s total global LNG imports

 • 76.1% of Yamal LNG exports went to the EU

 • Yamal LNG exports to the EU generated an estimated €7.2 bn

 • France was the largest EU importer, with 41.7% of imports from Yamal to the EU
In 2025, EU imports from the Kremlin’s flagship Yamal LNG project hit €7.2 billion
A new analysis of Kpler data published today by the NGO Urgewald shows that Russia's Arctic LNG exports remain heavily dependent on access to EU ports.
www.urgewald.org
February 5, 2026 at 11:32 AM
1/2

A counterfactual:

What if Germany had replaced lignite, instead of nuclear, for electricity generation, replacing lignite at the same rate it replaced nuclear?

Here's a research paper showing that hypothetical result:
👇


Ref: Eur. Phys. J. Plus link.springer.com/article/10.1...
February 4, 2026 at 3:51 PM
 ❝ The calculations showed a possible fall in energy revenues by 18% in 2026 compared to the government's plan, pushing the deficit to between 3.5% and 4.4% of GDP, compared to a planned 1.6% of GDP.

… budget energy revenues halved in January to their lowest level since July 2020, at $5.13 bn.❞
February 4, 2026 at 3:22 PM
World’s largest compressed-air storage plant switched on in China:

 • Guoxin Suyan Huai’an Salt Cavern Compressed Air Energy Storage Demonstration Project:

 • Heat from compression is stored in molten salt

 • 2.4 GWh adiabatic compressed air energy storage

 • 2× 300 MW power

 • 71% efficiency
World’s largest compressed-air storage plant switched on in China
New 2.4 GWh adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) plant now operational in in Jiangsu province. The large-scale CAES uses molten salt and pressurized thermal water storage to achieve high eff...
www.pv-magazine.com
February 3, 2026 at 12:20 PM
 ❝ Ørsted’s Sunrise Wind project is the fifth project to be granted a preliminary injunction as part of a lawsuit challenging the order issued by the Director of the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) on 22 December 2025.❞
All Five Halted US Offshore Wind Farms Resume Construction
All five US offshore wind farms under construction that received stop-work orders from the US government have been cleared to continue building, with Ørsted's Sunrise Wind project the fifth project to...
www.offshorewind.biz
February 3, 2026 at 12:08 PM
1/2

Montel finds that Germany, France and the Netherlands curtailed 3.9 TWh of renewable power in 2025.

In Germany, commercially or market-motivated curtailment increased to almost 1.75 TWh, 25% up on 2024.

The main cause is negative electricity prices driven by a rapid expansion of solar PV.
February 3, 2026 at 11:56 AM
Reposted by Lightbucket
Definitely seems like they destroyed the country on purpose.
February 2, 2026 at 6:30 PM
1/2

Germany's electricity mix in 2025 vs. 2024:

Lignite down 3.9 TWh
but
hard coal & gas up 11.7 TWh.

Wind down 4.3 TWh
but solar PV up 10.8 TWh.

(for grid feed-in generation)


Ref: www.energy-charts.info/charts/energ...
February 1, 2026 at 4:41 PM
1/2

A few months ago Dale Vince was calling for oil and gas subsidies in the North Sea:

 ❝ Vince said the government should scrap the windfall tax and instead offer subsidies to oil companies that guarantee a minimum price for the barrels of oil and gas they produce.❞
Green energy entrepreneur calls on UK to subsidise North Sea oil and gas firms
Dale Vince urges ministers to ‘optimise’ resources in fossil fuel basin to help smooth transition to renewables
www.theguardian.com
February 1, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Russia sanctions update:

The European Union's price cap on Russian oil has dropped from $47.60 to $44.10 per barrel as of today, 1st February.

An automatic mechanism sets the price cap to always be 15% lower than the average market price for Urals crude in the previous six months.
February 1, 2026 at 1:04 PM
1/5

At last, a *complete* #pricescrapbook entry for the price of electricity for all French nuclear plants:

The prices come in three separate groups:

 ❶ The existing nuclear fleet (incl. Flamanville 3);

 ❷ Flamanville 3 alone;

 ❸ The new build of 6× EPR2 reactors.

🧵
January 30, 2026 at 3:44 PM
 ❝ Discussing why the French state had stopped the deal, [French Finance Minister] Lescure told French television channel TF1 that the company’s antennas are strategic assets because they are used for both civilian and military purposes.❞

("antennas" seems to refer to ground-segment infrastructure)
January 30, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Reposted by Lightbucket
Elon tacitly admitting that car sales will never match the expectations required to support Tesla's stock valuation.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Wednesday that the automaker is ending production of its Model S and X vehicles, and will use the factory in Fremont, California, to build Optimus humanoid robots. cnb.cx/4rp70Xq
January 29, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Reposted by Lightbucket
With the FSB set to secure broad powers to cut communications, one Russian paper criticises the idea: “It's impossible to imagine the functioning of a modern economy without a functioning Internet.” Another paper on prices in 2026: “Vodka up 17%, cucumbers 21.3%.” #ReadingRussia
Russian paper concerned about "Off-switch for the Internet"
YouTube video by Steve Rosenberg
youtu.be
January 29, 2026 at 7:55 AM
#pricescrapbook entry for Poland's first nuclear power plant.

The European Commission approves a 40-yr Contract for Difference for the 3750 MW (3 × AP1000) plant in Pomerania:

 ❝ The financial model verified by the EC assumes a strike price of less than PLN 500 per MWh.❞

PLN 500/MWh = £103/MWh
Green light from the European Commission for nuclear power in Poland. Brussels agrees to state aid for the nuclear power plant in Pomerania – Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe
The European Commission approved state aid for Poland’s first nuclear power plant. The decision was made in record time and, importantly, in accordance with the expectations of the Polish side. The gr...
pej.pl
January 28, 2026 at 3:55 PM
Reposted by Lightbucket
What if you could visualise how electricity flows from a wind farm in Scotland to your home in London?

Ok it's not quite that simple, but it got me thinking that there must be a way of visualising the complexity of the electricity transmission grid in Great Britain.

This is my first attempt…
January 28, 2026 at 1:59 PM
Germany looks set to miss its offshore wind target of 30 GW by 2030.

Germany's wind output also fell by 6 TWh in 2025,
while the UK's rose.


Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
January 28, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Reposted by Lightbucket
NEW – Analysis: EVs just outsold petrol cars in EU for first time ever | @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org

Read here: buff.ly/5g3BVAp
January 27, 2026 at 2:45 PM
1/2

Hamburg Declaration:

Nine North Seas countries sign a major offshore wind and interconnector agreement:

 • Belgium;
 • Denmark;
 • France;
 • Germany;
 • Ireland;
 • Luxembourg;
 • Netherlands;
 • Norway;
 • UK.
North Sea Summit ‘Investment Pact’ to mobilise €1tn in offshore wind investments for Europe
Seven Heads of State and Government and the Energy Ministers of the 9 North Seas countries gathered in Hamburg today to boost the expansion of offshore wind. Together with industry and transmission sy...
windeurope.org
January 26, 2026 at 1:12 PM
Zero coal by 2025:

Many European countries started the 2010s with over 10% of electricity generation from coal,
and got to ~zero (or well under 1%) by 2025,
notably:

 • Ireland;
 • Spain;
 • Finland;
 • UK;
 • Portugal.

Germany's still at a 21% coal share.


Ref: ember-energy.org/data/electri...
January 26, 2026 at 11:41 AM
1/3

Finland has decarbonised its electricity at extraordinary speed.

Its emissions intensity in 2025 was 56.8 gCO₂e/kWh,
down by a factor of two since 2022 (from 130 gCO₂e/kWh),
and down by a factor of three since 2019 (from 172 gCO₂e/kWh).

How?
🧵


Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
January 25, 2026 at 3:44 PM
Carbon emissions intensity of electricity generation,
now to 2025,
for the largest five EU economies and the UK.

Germany still has the highest emissions, 332 gCO₂e/kWh,
France still has the lowest, 42 gCO₂e/kWh.

The UK has the strongest downward trend over the last 15 years.

👇
January 24, 2026 at 4:12 PM
1/3

Electricity generation from coal in the EU,
now with data for 2025:

The six countries with the highest coal-fired generation.

Germany still has the highest amount of coal-fired generation in the EU, closely followed by Poland.

👇

Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
January 24, 2026 at 3:11 PM