Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 22h

Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 5d

‘Today, working-class investors are flocking to all these markets: stocks, betting and crypto. They are beneficiaries of a new age of democratic finance. Or the last invitees to a party that’s going to end.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

From Sports to AI, America Is Awash in Speculative Fever. Washington Is Egging It On.

Working-class investors are flocking to stocks, betting and crypto, beneficiaries of a new age of democratic finance—or the last invitees to a party that’s going to end.

www.wsj.com

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 4d

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 5d

Every dip is bought. "Friday, October 10th – marked the largest options trading day in market history...surge epitomized the “buy-the-dip” mentality. Retail flow skewed 11% better to buy...marking the largest single-day call buying ever on our platform."
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...

Equity FLASH Update - Citadel Securities

Citadel Securities is an award-winning global market-maker across a broad array of fixed income and equity products.

www.citadelsecurities.com

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Barchart @barchart.com · 5d

Foreigners now have the highest allocation to U.S. Stocks in history 🇺🇸🚨

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 5d

Multiple false recession signals from the Leading Economic Index since its 2021 peak. But only one component has really mattered - stock prices. The wealth effect is doing all the heavy lifting. Even with a government shutdown, the Fed could just watch the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 to set policy.

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 5d

"After Friday’s move, we have CTAs modeled to sell equities in every scenario over the next week and month, mostly concentrated in the US."
DailyChartbook.com

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 6d

“It is precisely China’s belief that Trump will fold—as he appeared to do on magnets earlier this year—that has led them to massively escalate.” www.wsj.com/world/china/...

China, Betting It Can Win a Trade War, Is Playing Hardball With Trump

Chinese leader Xi Jinping thinks the president will fold before launching new tariffs that would roil markets.

www.wsj.com

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 6d

‘Single-stock implied volatility is now very elevated relative to the S&P index volatility, with the gap surging to multi-year highs.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/780 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 6d

"It does not surprise me that we are seeing late-cycle accidents,” Rowan said on Tuesday. “I think it’s a desire to win in a competitive market that sometimes leads to shortcuts. In some of these more levered credits, there’s been a willingness to cut corners.” www.ft.com/content/f1b6...

Top US financiers sound alarm on lending standards

Apollo’s Marc Rowan warns of ‘willingness to cut corners’

www.ft.com

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 6d

'Silver's weekly RSI is at 86, one of the highest readings ever.' subutrade.com

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 6d

'The five-day average for call volumes in GLD recently hit a record, while those for its silver peer are at their highest since 2021.'
sherwood.news/markets/gold...

Gold and silver are the new meme stocks

Momentum. Flows. Options activity. Intense retail enthusiasm. It’s all there....

sherwood.news

Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 6d

"Friday’s wipeout triggered the largest futures liquidation in Bitcoin’s history. Over $11B in open interest was erased as leverage was forcefully unwound. A historic deleveraging event that has reset speculative excess across the market." DailyChartbook.com

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 6d

‘Gen Z anger in Madagascar has mirrored demonstrations by youth across the world this year, as many young people have taken to the streets to protest inequality, poverty, corruption, and lack of infrastructure in their nations.‘ time.com/7325597/mada...

Gen Z Protesters Have Toppled Another Government

The army has taken over after Gen Z-led protests over power outages and water shortages grew into wider discontent.

time.com

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 7d

DIMON, on Tricolor:

".. my antenna goes up when things like that happen. .. I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, you will probably see more. And so everyone should be forewarned."

(via Vital Knowledge) $JPM

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Barchart @barchart.com · 7d

CTAs are projected to sell stocks in EVERY SINGLE Scenario over the next week and month 🚨🚨

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 6d

'Over most 30-year periods in U.S. history, a 60/40 portfolio either performed just as well as an all-stock portfolio or lagged behind it only slightly...Volatility drag is why the 60/40 portfolio could so frequently keep pace with the all-stock portfolio.' www.marketwatch.com/story/this-b...

This stock and bond portfolio won’t give you bragging rights — but it does make you money

The surprisingly good long-term performance of a traditional blend of 60% stocks and 40% bonds

www.marketwatch.com

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 7d

'Companies still say that they intend to increase AI usage but actual adoption rates among large companies appear to have already peaked.' @peterberezin.bsky.social

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 7d

Inflation swaps, consumer surveys, and CPI diffusion data tell a different story...

'Powell said on Tuesday that longer-term inflation expectations remained “aligned with our 2 per cent goal”...there were few signs of “broader inflationary pressures”.'
www.ft.com/content/57f3...

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 7d

'The authors of the study...found that the stock market performed better when political control in Washington was unified...Much better, in fact. Between 1927 and 2020, the cap-weighted U.S. stock market performed 8.7 annualized percentage points better under unified governments than divided ones.'

The stock market performs much better when the government is actually doing its job

Politically polarized ‘gridlock’ in Washington leads to a significant reduction in both U.S. corporate investment and share prices

www.marketwatch.com

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 7d

“The backdrop for that pullback [Friday] though, was a market that was speculative, overbought, greedy and ready to selloff. That was much evident in the positioning of our market timing models and the underlying ‘technical’ state of the equity market.”'
www.marketwatch.com/story/friday...

Friday’s selloff broke something in the stock market. Here’s what that means for investors.

Longview Economics strategist says it’s time for caution

www.marketwatch.com

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 22d

In a month marked by headlines of circular AI deals, NVIDIA sits at the center – the world’s largest company – still flagged by Beneish M-Score as an earnings manipulator.

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 24d

‘Practically the only people still pretending scaling LLMs is “all you need” are grifters.’ garymarcus.substack.com/p/game-over-... by @garymarcus.bsky.social

Game over for pure LLMs. Even Turing Award Winner Rich Sutton has gotten off the bus.

One by one, all the big names have turned around. What should we do next?

garymarcus.substack.com

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Reposted by Mark Dodson

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 24d

Single most important signal in 2025 is that gold (black) keeps rallying, even as USD (blue) is stable vs the G10. Markets aren't trading Dollar debasement. They're trading broad debasement of all fiat currencies against gold. Sign of a global debt crisis...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-gold-r...

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 24d

“Maybe there’s a job in the world that AI won’t change, but I haven’t thought of it.”
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/walm...?

Walmart CEO Issues Wake-Up Call: ‘AI Is Going to Change Literally Every Job’

The country’s largest private employer says its head count will stay flat over the next three years, despite plans to grow, as AI eliminates some roles and transforms others.

www.wsj.com

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