Mark Dodson
markdodson.bsky.social
Mark Dodson
@markdodson.bsky.social
98 followers 87 following 150 posts
Founder of Cypress Capital - www.cypresscapital.com
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Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
Greed is in the driver’s seat – the ratio of margin debt to money supply is higher than at any time except February and March 2000.
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Every dip is bought. "Friday, October 10th – marked the largest options trading day in market history...surge epitomized the “buy-the-dip” mentality. Retail flow skewed 11% better to buy...marking the largest single-day call buying ever on our platform."
www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...
Equity FLASH Update - Citadel Securities
Citadel Securities is an award-winning global market-maker across a broad array of fixed income and equity products.
www.citadelsecurities.com
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Foreigners now have the highest allocation to U.S. Stocks in history 🇺🇸🚨
Multiple false recession signals from the Leading Economic Index since its 2021 peak. But only one component has really mattered - stock prices. The wealth effect is doing all the heavy lifting. Even with a government shutdown, the Fed could just watch the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 to set policy.
"After Friday’s move, we have CTAs modeled to sell equities in every scenario over the next week and month, mostly concentrated in the US."
DailyChartbook.com
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Single-stock implied volatility is now very elevated relative to the S&P index volatility, with the gap surging to multi-year highs.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/780 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
Reposted by Mark Dodson
"It does not surprise me that we are seeing late-cycle accidents,” Rowan said on Tuesday. “I think it’s a desire to win in a competitive market that sometimes leads to shortcuts. In some of these more levered credits, there’s been a willingness to cut corners.” www.ft.com/content/f1b6...
Top US financiers sound alarm on lending standards
Apollo’s Marc Rowan warns of ‘willingness to cut corners’
www.ft.com
'Silver's weekly RSI is at 86, one of the highest readings ever.' subutrade.com
"Friday’s wipeout triggered the largest futures liquidation in Bitcoin’s history. Over $11B in open interest was erased as leverage was forcefully unwound. A historic deleveraging event that has reset speculative excess across the market." DailyChartbook.com
Reposted by Mark Dodson
‘Gen Z anger in Madagascar has mirrored demonstrations by youth across the world this year, as many young people have taken to the streets to protest inequality, poverty, corruption, and lack of infrastructure in their nations.‘ time.com/7325597/mada...
Gen Z Protesters Have Toppled Another Government
The army has taken over after Gen Z-led protests over power outages and water shortages grew into wider discontent.
time.com
Reposted by Mark Dodson
DIMON, on Tricolor:

".. my antenna goes up when things like that happen. .. I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, you will probably see more. And so everyone should be forewarned."

(via Vital Knowledge) $JPM
Reposted by Mark Dodson
CTAs are projected to sell stocks in EVERY SINGLE Scenario over the next week and month 🚨🚨
'Over most 30-year periods in U.S. history, a 60/40 portfolio either performed just as well as an all-stock portfolio or lagged behind it only slightly...Volatility drag is why the 60/40 portfolio could so frequently keep pace with the all-stock portfolio.' www.marketwatch.com/story/this-b...
This stock and bond portfolio won’t give you bragging rights — but it does make you money
The surprisingly good long-term performance of a traditional blend of 60% stocks and 40% bonds
www.marketwatch.com
'Companies still say that they intend to increase AI usage but actual adoption rates among large companies appear to have already peaked.' @peterberezin.bsky.social
Inflation swaps, consumer surveys, and CPI diffusion data tell a different story...

'Powell said on Tuesday that longer-term inflation expectations remained “aligned with our 2 per cent goal”...there were few signs of “broader inflationary pressures”.'
www.ft.com/content/57f3...
'The authors of the study...found that the stock market performed better when political control in Washington was unified...Much better, in fact. Between 1927 and 2020, the cap-weighted U.S. stock market performed 8.7 annualized percentage points better under unified governments than divided ones.'
The stock market performs much better when the government is actually doing its job
Politically polarized ‘gridlock’ in Washington leads to a significant reduction in both U.S. corporate investment and share prices
www.marketwatch.com
“The backdrop for that pullback [Friday] though, was a market that was speculative, overbought, greedy and ready to selloff. That was much evident in the positioning of our market timing models and the underlying ‘technical’ state of the equity market.”'
www.marketwatch.com/story/friday...
Friday’s selloff broke something in the stock market. Here’s what that means for investors.
Longview Economics strategist says it’s time for caution
www.marketwatch.com
In a month marked by headlines of circular AI deals, NVIDIA sits at the center – the world’s largest company – still flagged by Beneish M-Score as an earnings manipulator.
Reposted by Mark Dodson
Single most important signal in 2025 is that gold (black) keeps rallying, even as USD (blue) is stable vs the G10. Markets aren't trading Dollar debasement. They're trading broad debasement of all fiat currencies against gold. Sign of a global debt crisis...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-gold-r...