Mark Galeotti
banner
markgaleotti.bsky.social
Mark Galeotti
@markgaleotti.bsky.social

Analyst of murky topics from Russian politics to organised crime.

Mark Galeotti is a British historian, lecturer and writer on transnational crime and Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence. He is an honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies, and an associate fellow in Euro-Atlantic geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy, as well as formerly a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. .. more

Political science 78%
Sociology 15%

Give it time!

Monday morning re-up: with the FSB claiming the would-be assassins were promised $30,000 by the SBU, and recruited with the help of Polish intelligence (the plot thickens), my take from yesterday on the shooting of LtGen Alexeyev
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill

Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, military intelligence 2/ic is shot. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these qs.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill - In Moscow's Shadows
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technically, GU; colloquially, still GRU) is gunned down in Mosc...
www.buzzsprout.com

In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill

Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, military intelligence 2/ic is shot. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these qs.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill - In Moscow's Shadows
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technically, GU; colloquially, still GRU) is gunned down in Mosc...
www.buzzsprout.com

It is ridiculous. It may be that he had done something stupid like send his protection officer away, and he did have a driver/bodyguard waiting for him downstairs in the car, but it is amazing that even after the other attacks, the Russians haven't addressed this properly

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

How the shooting of a Russian general could affect the Ukraine war

My thoughts on the Alexeev shooting for tomorrow's @thetimes.com

www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
How the shooting of a Russian general could affect the Ukraine war
As Vladimir Alexeyev, No 2 in military intelligence, fights for his life, President Putin is losing face with extremists who want him to reject any peace deal
www.thetimes.com

We're not talking about a dissident, but a quintessential insider

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

If the Kremlin wants someone taken down, sacked or whatever, then it doesn't need to resort to methods that make it and the FSB look bad. It can simply have them arrested, sacked, whatever.

No

Unsurprisingly Lavrov claims hit on LG Alexeev was Kyiv's bid to torpedo talks (we are all assuming it was Kyiv, I presume), but more interesting is separate line emerging in RU social media blaming a dissident, anti-peace cabal in Kyiv (esp. SBU) - implicitly exonerates Zelensky!

Can Russia trust its old ‘little brother’ China?
Selling Russia's tomorrow for Putin's war today? My thoughts for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/can-...
Can Russia trust its old ‘little brother’ China?
Beijing is now supplanting Moscow in regions where Russia used to once hold sway
spectator.com

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Trump has chance to end the Ukraine war in weeks. But it would be a Putin win
(I imagine many Ukrainians would also consider it a win) My latest for @theipaper.com. I'm surprised by the optimism I heard from some quarters and am not sure I share it. But 🤞
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Trump has chance to end the Ukraine war in weeks. But it would be a Putin win
With talks taking place in Abu Dhabi, those involved are beginning to express a new, cautious optimism
inews.co.uk

Kinda, but as we've seen in other sanctioned authoritarianisms, the state continues to spend on things it cares about, even as society suffers. That may not be sustainable in the long term, to be sure, but for the next few years is likely to be the approach

Alas, it is falling...

In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected
A mini-episode paying Patrons heard as part of their 12 Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, on Putin's security, from rooftop snipers to his "ghost train."
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected - In Moscow's Shadows
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, opening the gates on Vladimir Putin’s personal security. From rooftop snipers and sealed manholes to...
www.buzzsprout.com

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Monday morning re-up: why everything is so damn complex, especially when it comes to Russia: good intentions can have troubling effects, while even in a time of growing authoritarianism, there is interesting news and research being assembled

Honestly, the only lesson is that everything is often more complex than people are willing to believe. I see no consideration of the sanctions effect -> more volunteers factor, for example. It doesn't mean avoid sanctions, just consider carefully all the angles...