Mark Galeotti
@markgaleotti.bsky.social
Analyst of murky topics from Russian politics to organised crime.
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia
Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest. I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her @politybooks.bsky.social book 'Rebel Russia'.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest. I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her @politybooks.bsky.social book 'Rebel Russia'.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia - In Moscow's Shadows
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses. Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest, I sit down with author and analyst Ann...
www.buzzsprout.com
February 10, 2026 at 10:51 AM
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia
Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest. I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her @politybooks.bsky.social book 'Rebel Russia'.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest. I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her @politybooks.bsky.social book 'Rebel Russia'.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Monday morning re-up: with the FSB claiming the would-be assassins were promised $30,000 by the SBU, and recruited with the help of Polish intelligence (the plot thickens), my take from yesterday on the shooting of LtGen Alexeyev
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, military intelligence 2/ic is shot. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these qs.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, military intelligence 2/ic is shot. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these qs.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill - In Moscow's Shadows
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technically, GU; colloquially, still GRU) is gunned down in Mosc...
www.buzzsprout.com
February 9, 2026 at 8:24 AM
Monday morning re-up: with the FSB claiming the would-be assassins were promised $30,000 by the SBU, and recruited with the help of Polish intelligence (the plot thickens), my take from yesterday on the shooting of LtGen Alexeyev
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, military intelligence 2/ic is shot. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these qs.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, military intelligence 2/ic is shot. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these qs.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill - In Moscow's Shadows
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technically, GU; colloquially, still GRU) is gunned down in Mosc...
www.buzzsprout.com
February 8, 2026 at 11:09 AM
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, military intelligence 2/ic is shot. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these qs.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, military intelligence 2/ic is shot. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these qs.
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
It is ridiculous. It may be that he had done something stupid like send his protection officer away, and he did have a driver/bodyguard waiting for him downstairs in the car, but it is amazing that even after the other attacks, the Russians haven't addressed this properly
February 7, 2026 at 8:24 PM
It is ridiculous. It may be that he had done something stupid like send his protection officer away, and he did have a driver/bodyguard waiting for him downstairs in the car, but it is amazing that even after the other attacks, the Russians haven't addressed this properly
How the shooting of a Russian general could affect the Ukraine war
My thoughts on the Alexeev shooting for tomorrow's @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
My thoughts on the Alexeev shooting for tomorrow's @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
How the shooting of a Russian general could affect the Ukraine war
As Vladimir Alexeyev, No 2 in military intelligence, fights for his life, President Putin is losing face with extremists who want him to reject any peace deal
www.thetimes.com
February 7, 2026 at 5:40 PM
How the shooting of a Russian general could affect the Ukraine war
My thoughts on the Alexeev shooting for tomorrow's @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
My thoughts on the Alexeev shooting for tomorrow's @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
We're not talking about a dissident, but a quintessential insider
February 6, 2026 at 9:12 PM
We're not talking about a dissident, but a quintessential insider
If the Kremlin wants someone taken down, sacked or whatever, then it doesn't need to resort to methods that make it and the FSB look bad. It can simply have them arrested, sacked, whatever.
February 6, 2026 at 1:31 PM
If the Kremlin wants someone taken down, sacked or whatever, then it doesn't need to resort to methods that make it and the FSB look bad. It can simply have them arrested, sacked, whatever.
Unsurprisingly Lavrov claims hit on LG Alexeev was Kyiv's bid to torpedo talks (we are all assuming it was Kyiv, I presume), but more interesting is separate line emerging in RU social media blaming a dissident, anti-peace cabal in Kyiv (esp. SBU) - implicitly exonerates Zelensky!
February 6, 2026 at 12:49 PM
Unsurprisingly Lavrov claims hit on LG Alexeev was Kyiv's bid to torpedo talks (we are all assuming it was Kyiv, I presume), but more interesting is separate line emerging in RU social media blaming a dissident, anti-peace cabal in Kyiv (esp. SBU) - implicitly exonerates Zelensky!
Can Russia trust its old ‘little brother’ China?
Selling Russia's tomorrow for Putin's war today? My thoughts for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/can-...
Selling Russia's tomorrow for Putin's war today? My thoughts for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/can-...
Can Russia trust its old ‘little brother’ China?
Beijing is now supplanting Moscow in regions where Russia used to once hold sway
spectator.com
February 6, 2026 at 12:27 PM
Can Russia trust its old ‘little brother’ China?
Selling Russia's tomorrow for Putin's war today? My thoughts for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/can-...
Selling Russia's tomorrow for Putin's war today? My thoughts for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/can-...
Trump has chance to end the Ukraine war in weeks. But it would be a Putin win
(I imagine many Ukrainians would also consider it a win) My latest for @theipaper.com. I'm surprised by the optimism I heard from some quarters and am not sure I share it. But 🤞
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
(I imagine many Ukrainians would also consider it a win) My latest for @theipaper.com. I'm surprised by the optimism I heard from some quarters and am not sure I share it. But 🤞
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Trump has chance to end the Ukraine war in weeks. But it would be a Putin win
With talks taking place in Abu Dhabi, those involved are beginning to express a new, cautious optimism
inews.co.uk
February 4, 2026 at 6:55 AM
Trump has chance to end the Ukraine war in weeks. But it would be a Putin win
(I imagine many Ukrainians would also consider it a win) My latest for @theipaper.com. I'm surprised by the optimism I heard from some quarters and am not sure I share it. But 🤞
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
(I imagine many Ukrainians would also consider it a win) My latest for @theipaper.com. I'm surprised by the optimism I heard from some quarters and am not sure I share it. But 🤞
inews.co.uk/news/world/t...
Kinda, but as we've seen in other sanctioned authoritarianisms, the state continues to spend on things it cares about, even as society suffers. That may not be sustainable in the long term, to be sure, but for the next few years is likely to be the approach
February 3, 2026 at 10:41 AM
Kinda, but as we've seen in other sanctioned authoritarianisms, the state continues to spend on things it cares about, even as society suffers. That may not be sustainable in the long term, to be sure, but for the next few years is likely to be the approach
Alas, it is falling...
February 3, 2026 at 8:45 AM
Alas, it is falling...
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected
A mini-episode paying Patrons heard as part of their 12 Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, on Putin's security, from rooftop snipers to his "ghost train."
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
A mini-episode paying Patrons heard as part of their 12 Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, on Putin's security, from rooftop snipers to his "ghost train."
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected - In Moscow's Shadows
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, opening the gates on Vladimir Putin’s personal security. From rooftop snipers and sealed manholes to...
www.buzzsprout.com
February 3, 2026 at 8:45 AM
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected
A mini-episode paying Patrons heard as part of their 12 Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, on Putin's security, from rooftop snipers to his "ghost train."
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
A mini-episode paying Patrons heard as part of their 12 Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, on Putin's security, from rooftop snipers to his "ghost train."
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Monday morning re-up: why everything is so damn complex, especially when it comes to Russia: good intentions can have troubling effects, while even in a time of growing authoritarianism, there is interesting news and research being assembled
In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications, on emigre politics, energy ceasefire, corruption and battle death
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications, on emigre politics, energy ceasefire, corruption and battle death
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption - In Moscow's Shadows
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications:PACE’s new platform for dialogue with “Russian democratic forces” beg the question of whether a handpicked roster, quota politics, and delegates closel...
www.buzzsprout.com
February 2, 2026 at 9:54 AM
Monday morning re-up: why everything is so damn complex, especially when it comes to Russia: good intentions can have troubling effects, while even in a time of growing authoritarianism, there is interesting news and research being assembled
Honestly, the only lesson is that everything is often more complex than people are willing to believe. I see no consideration of the sanctions effect -> more volunteers factor, for example. It doesn't mean avoid sanctions, just consider carefully all the angles...
February 1, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Honestly, the only lesson is that everything is often more complex than people are willing to believe. I see no consideration of the sanctions effect -> more volunteers factor, for example. It doesn't mean avoid sanctions, just consider carefully all the angles...
I reference this report from the Centre for Political Information:
polit-info.ru/images/data/...
And this research by The Bell: en.thebell.io/waging-war-w...
polit-info.ru/images/data/...
And this research by The Bell: en.thebell.io/waging-war-w...
polit-info.ru
February 1, 2026 at 11:59 AM
I reference this report from the Centre for Political Information:
polit-info.ru/images/data/...
And this research by The Bell: en.thebell.io/waging-war-w...
polit-info.ru/images/data/...
And this research by The Bell: en.thebell.io/waging-war-w...
In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications, on emigre politics, energy ceasefire, corruption and battle death
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications, on emigre politics, energy ceasefire, corruption and battle death
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption - In Moscow's Shadows
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications:PACE’s new platform for dialogue with “Russian democratic forces” beg the question of whether a handpicked roster, quota politics, and delegates closel...
www.buzzsprout.com
February 1, 2026 at 10:20 AM
In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications, on emigre politics, energy ceasefire, corruption and battle death
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications, on emigre politics, energy ceasefire, corruption and battle death
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Reposted by Mark Galeotti
Just listened to this and very much recommend it to anyone who is interested in what Europe can and should do for Ukraine. Whether or not you agree with Mark's criticism of the French-UK coalition-of-the-willing initiative, there are lots of well-argued and constructive proposals in there.
In Moscow's Shadows 231: Real Guarantees for Ukraine
It's easy to snipe at unrealistic pledges of troops and 'Art. 50-like' guarantees.
Here I stick my neck out and outline a suite of meaningful security guarantees that won't (shouldn't) torpedo peace talks
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
It's easy to snipe at unrealistic pledges of troops and 'Art. 50-like' guarantees.
Here I stick my neck out and outline a suite of meaningful security guarantees that won't (shouldn't) torpedo peace talks
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 231: Real Guarantees for Ukraine - In Moscow's Shadows
The talk of a military force provided by the 'Coalition of the Willing' to help secure Ukraine after a peace is a non-starter, not least as it would preclude any peace deal. But it's easy to snipe fro...
www.buzzsprout.com
January 24, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Just listened to this and very much recommend it to anyone who is interested in what Europe can and should do for Ukraine. Whether or not you agree with Mark's criticism of the French-UK coalition-of-the-willing initiative, there are lots of well-argued and constructive proposals in there.
Monday morning re-up: spook diplomacy in the Ukraine talks, the Greenland show, is the Board of Peace a trap, is Russia really a 'middle power', snows in Kamchatka, and who might succeed Kadyrov...?
In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov
Well, what the title says, really: a round-up of the latest from the 'rough world order' and then a look at how a satrapy survives without its satrap (if Ramzan dies)
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Well, what the title says, really: a round-up of the latest from the 'rough world order' and then a look at how a satrapy survives without its satrap (if Ramzan dies)
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov - In Moscow's Shadows
First, a look at some of the news as this year starts hard and bizarre: trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (with military intelligence chiefs to the fore), the Greenland crisis and the perils of rump's Boa...
www.buzzsprout.com
January 26, 2026 at 7:55 AM
Monday morning re-up: spook diplomacy in the Ukraine talks, the Greenland show, is the Board of Peace a trap, is Russia really a 'middle power', snows in Kamchatka, and who might succeed Kadyrov...?
In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov
Well, what the title says, really: a round-up of the latest from the 'rough world order' and then a look at how a satrapy survives without its satrap (if Ramzan dies)
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Well, what the title says, really: a round-up of the latest from the 'rough world order' and then a look at how a satrapy survives without its satrap (if Ramzan dies)
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov - In Moscow's Shadows
First, a look at some of the news as this year starts hard and bizarre: trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (with military intelligence chiefs to the fore), the Greenland crisis and the perils of rump's Boa...
www.buzzsprout.com
January 25, 2026 at 12:04 PM
In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov
Well, what the title says, really: a round-up of the latest from the 'rough world order' and then a look at how a satrapy survives without its satrap (if Ramzan dies)
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Well, what the title says, really: a round-up of the latest from the 'rough world order' and then a look at how a satrapy survives without its satrap (if Ramzan dies)
www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...
Once Putin saw Trumpian chaos as an opportunity. Now he’s worried.
In Trump's 'rough world order,' is Russia really another of those 'middle powers'? My take for @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
In Trump's 'rough world order,' is Russia really another of those 'middle powers'? My take for @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
Once Putin saw Trumpian chaos as an opportunity. Now he’s worried
The US president has been seen as friendly towards Moscow. But, with a Board of Peace invitation in his inbox, the Russian leader is wary of being isolated
www.thetimes.com
January 25, 2026 at 9:12 AM
Once Putin saw Trumpian chaos as an opportunity. Now he’s worried.
In Trump's 'rough world order,' is Russia really another of those 'middle powers'? My take for @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
In Trump's 'rough world order,' is Russia really another of those 'middle powers'? My take for @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...
Who is the spook leading Russia's negotiations with Ukraine?
Not much is know about Adm. Kostyukov, head of Russian military intelligence, so here's a sketch for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/who-...
Not much is know about Adm. Kostyukov, head of Russian military intelligence, so here's a sketch for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/who-...
Who is the spook leading Russia's negotiations with Ukraine?
Kostyukov, by contrast, had a career straddling the analysts and agentura, having been a human intelligence case officer abroad.
spectator.com
January 23, 2026 at 2:45 PM
Who is the spook leading Russia's negotiations with Ukraine?
Not much is know about Adm. Kostyukov, head of Russian military intelligence, so here's a sketch for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/who-...
Not much is know about Adm. Kostyukov, head of Russian military intelligence, so here's a sketch for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/who-...
"Even more useful for Moscow is “a long-running dispute that poisons transatlantic relations” and leaves everyone feeling betrayed."
My latest for @theipaper.com on how Russia is enjoying the #Greenland crisis...
inews.co.uk/news/world/p...
My latest for @theipaper.com on how Russia is enjoying the #Greenland crisis...
inews.co.uk/news/world/p...
How Putin is using the Trump crisis to poison Europe
Russian is sitting back and enjoying the spectacle of a Nato crisis
inews.co.uk
January 21, 2026 at 8:46 AM
"Even more useful for Moscow is “a long-running dispute that poisons transatlantic relations” and leaves everyone feeling betrayed."
My latest for @theipaper.com on how Russia is enjoying the #Greenland crisis...
inews.co.uk/news/world/p...
My latest for @theipaper.com on how Russia is enjoying the #Greenland crisis...
inews.co.uk/news/world/p...