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Mark Galeotti

@markgaleotti.bsky.social

7.7K followers 35 following 320 posts

Analyst of murky topics from Russian politics to organised crime.

Mark Galeotti is a British historian, lecturer and writer on transnational crime and Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence. He is an honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies, and an associate fellow in Euro-Atlantic geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy, as well as formerly a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. .. more

Political science 78%

Sociology 15%

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 4h

We're not in a "fully-fledged war with Moscow", whatever Putin's rhetoric

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 4h

In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'?

Has the FSB's Military CI Department a new head? What does this mean for the FSB's internal politics - is 'crown prince' Korolev finally going to take over?

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'? - In Moscow's Shadows

Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be getting a new head. What does this mean for the internal ...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Reposted by Brigid Laffan

Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 4d

Don't get me started on the subtitle of The Vory, 'Russia's super-mafia.' The price to be paid for having a foreign word as the title (publishers generally don't like that)

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 4d

Let's just say that what goes on a cover - from text to design - tends to reflect a compromise between the author and the publishers...

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Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 4d

What's that you say? You don't have the ebook of A SHORT HISTORY OF RUSSIA? Inconceivable! Fear not, though: it's on sale at Amazon.co.uk for a trivial 99p this month

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

I don't think there's any reason to think so, not least as Putin was dragged reluctantly into burning his relationship with Israel and kinda supporting Hamas *after* the attacks, because of the need at the time to keep Iran sweet

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

…his default is likely towards conservatism and authoritarianism. Brezhnevism or Nicholas II-ism? One died in office, the other emphatically did not. We’ll see which parallel plays out best. 10/end

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

He is, after all, risk averse, and tends to regard change as always the riskier option. Having seen both the USSR and DDR collapse around him, and regarding this as results of attempted reform and regime weakness… 9/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

But it’s hard to imagine VVP and his fellow septuagenarians able to reinvent themselves or come up with any substantive changes in direct. He *could* do all kinds of things, but will he? I suspect he’ll just plough on, hoping everything works out. 8/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

…comes political resentment. Probably not protest on any major scale – one thing the regime still does well is repression – but protest potential, a simmering undercurrent that even if not manifest in direct action, undermines coherence, productivity and morale, late Brezhnevism style. 7/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

Combined with the petrol supply crisis brought about by Ukrainian long-range strikes, this means the effort – largely successful until now – to insulate most Russians from the war will become ever harder, and with that… 6/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

This is scarring, but bearable – he can continue to fight his war. However, the civilian sector of the economy is withering, and the quality of life for most will decline: the death of the old Putin ‘stay out of politics but enjoy life’ social contract. 5/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

Meanwhile, the Russian economy is slowing down. GDP growth this year will slow to 1% or less, while inflation is not going to fall to the 4% target but hover closer to 7%. 4/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

…while he doesn’t have to fight a forever war, just be able to last longer than Ukraine, what may be a costly but viable military strategy also has serious economic and political costs at home. Is that last bit of Donetsk oblast really worth it? He seems to think so. 3/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

Obviously, there’s the war. He seems to have chosen to squander the chance to fix the current front line with a deal negotiated through Trump, so the meatgrinder continues. His gamble is clearly that he can get a better deal yet but… 2/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 5d

7 October – Putin’s 73rd birthday. I won’t wish him many happy returns, but let’s just spend a moment pondering the dilemmas that will likely face him in the coming year 1/

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Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 6d

Very kind!

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 6d

Monday morning re-up: Apart from his stamina, what else can we glean from Putin's 4-hour Valdai keynote/Q&A - and how are the themes mirror-imaged in some of the most anti-Putin thinking in the West?

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 7d

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai

Key themes from Putin's 4-hour outing are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics. Everyone wants to oversimplify a complex world.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai - In Moscow's Shadows

Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the ...

www.buzzsprout.com

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Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Gus Moyer (梅子超) @gusmoyer.bsky.social · 6d

While listening to this podcast, @markgaleotti.bsky.social mentioned his Forged In War #book.

A masterful history of how war and insecurity, both real and perceived, have driven Russia’s destiny for centuries, including the invasion of #Ukraine.
#Audiobook #Booksky
#Kindle #Libby #Putin
#Russia

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Reposted by Mark Galeotti

Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social · 6d

For those who can read Finnish or don't mind using Google Translate (which does a pretty decent job), an interview on the release of my book FORGED IN WAR in translation that inevitably wanders to Ukraine, drones, etc
yle.fi/a/74-20185609

Maailmankuulun brittitutkijan viesti Putinille: Historialla ei voi perustella nykyisyyttä

Professori Mark Galeottin mukaan Putin joutuu perustelemaan Ukrainan sotaa historialla, koska hän on pettänyt lupaukset elintason nostamisesta.

yle.fi

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Reposted by Mark Galeotti