Essentially, yes: there is some scope for Western escalation, but there is also scope for Russian escalation

Because they are Russian sovereign assets. I don’t see why you think otherwise

Budapest Agreements provided NO security guarabtees. They simply said that signatories wouldn't invade Ukraine - which Russia clearly broke - but the only 'sanction' was that the other countries would raise any breach with the UN, which they did. That's all that was entailed.

If they don't, then the plan falls through. But the point is that this may be the start of a process which could create and fix them.

If you read the thread through, you'll see that I say security guarantees need to be firmed up and fleshed out, that this is just the potential basis for proper talks, no more. But feel free to enjoy your moral certitude

I’m certainly not saying this is a *good* plan. There are some weird anomalies (START-1?) and whole legions of devils in the details, from monitoring to security guarantees. But arguably it’s the closest to the basis for talks that we could have expected 8/end

Sanctions relief is staged, likely not complete, and Moscow must allow $100B of its frozen funds to go to Ukraine reconstruction. That’s better than I imagined, even though the form of reconstruction looks a little exploitative/colonial (to US gain). 7/

Withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk Region continues to be a tough one; making this a DMZ *may* make it easier to swallow, as it addresses the issue of the region being used as a springboard for future attacks. 6/

There continue to be claims that Ukraine would be denied long-range weapons. I’m not seeing that (am I just reading incomplete versions of the text), just a commitment to not actually striking Moscow or St P “without cause” 5/

That’s also just the standing army – to which there would presumably be a substantial mobilisation reserve in case of war. As many as Ukraine might like? Probably not – but the country would be by no means defenceless 4/

Capping the Ukrainian army to 600,000 isn’t as draconian as I imagine the Russians wanted. When I talked to some British MOD analysts a couple of months back, they expressed doubts Kyiv could afford more than 500,000 long-term 3/

By sticking to acknowledging Russia’s de facto control of the occupied territories, it sidesteps the need for a Ukrainian constitutional referendum or even EU formal acceptance. This doesn’t preclude some peaceful future reunification, Germany-style 2/