Max Warner
@maxwarner.bsky.social
Economist at the IFS working on health and social care, public spending and public sector productivity https://ifs.org.uk/people/max-warner
Reposted by Max Warner
NEW: What are Rachel Reeves’ options if she decides to change departmental spending at next week’s Budget?
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
November 19, 2025 at 10:28 AM
NEW: What are Rachel Reeves’ options if she decides to change departmental spending at next week’s Budget?
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
Reposted by Max Warner
The IFS has calculated that the effective carbon price on household use of gas is negative, thanks to its lower VAT rate.
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
November 5, 2025 at 10:55 AM
The IFS has calculated that the effective carbon price on household use of gas is negative, thanks to its lower VAT rate.
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
ifs.org.uk/articles/tax....
This obviously sets back the carbon transition. Let's hope the Government is looking to make this better!
Elective waiting times in the NHS have improved since Labour came to office, but relatively slowly. Improvements in 18 week performance will have to pick up speed considerably if the government are to hit their headline NHS target by the end of the parliament.
October 24, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Elective waiting times in the NHS have improved since Labour came to office, but relatively slowly. Improvements in 18 week performance will have to pick up speed considerably if the government are to hit their headline NHS target by the end of the parliament.
Reposted by Max Warner
On the question of one vs two OBR forecasts per year...
The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!
The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!
September 29, 2025 at 8:04 AM
On the question of one vs two OBR forecasts per year...
The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!
The IMF said first best option would be to operate with more ‘headroom’. They did not call for one forecast. They suggested that the rules could be assessed only once per year, but explicitly said that two forecasts per year is best practice!
Reposted by Max Warner
NEW PODCAST: The end of the peace dividend? UK defence in a changing world
🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
September 26, 2025 at 2:27 PM
NEW PODCAST: The end of the peace dividend? UK defence in a changing world
🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
🎧 @helenmiller.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social & @rusi.bsky.social's Matthew Savill chat all things defence spending: what it covers, how it's changed and what reaching 3.5% of GDP would mean: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...
One of my favourite charts from our new report on defence spending:
For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
The UK last spent 3.5% of GDP on defence in 1987–88, when health spending was 4.0% of GDP. By 2035, health spending could reach 9.2% of GDP.
Funding concurrent increases in health and defence spending on this scale would pose a considerable fiscal challenge.
[2/6]
Funding concurrent increases in health and defence spending on this scale would pose a considerable fiscal challenge.
[2/6]
September 26, 2025 at 2:32 PM
One of my favourite charts from our new report on defence spending:
For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
For decades, the 'peace dividend' of falling defence spending as a share of GDP has allowed more spending on things like health without such a big rise in the size of the state. That is no longer the case
Reposted by Max Warner
In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.
September 26, 2025 at 9:40 AM
In new @theifs.bsky.social work, we examine the fiscal challenge of the UK's commitment to higher defence spending. If met, for the first time in a long time health and defence spending would likely rise simultaneously (as a % of GDP). This would change the shape and/or size of the state.
Reposted by Max Warner
Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.
September 26, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Some great charts in this report. This one is my favourite. The UK has signed up the new NATO commitment to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence. The scale of the increase is fiscally challenging, and we've given ourselves a decade. Poland, on the other hand, has done it in just two years.
We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today on UK defence spending. Defence spending commitments, if met, will have a large impact on the shape and/or size of the state. We cover lots of important aspects of defence spending, including international comparisons and impacts on growth
NEW: Honouring the NATO commitment to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 would reshape the British state.
@maxwarner.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social's new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the past and future of UK defence spending:
[THREAD:]
@maxwarner.bsky.social & @beeboileau.bsky.social's new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the past and future of UK defence spending:
[THREAD:]
September 26, 2025 at 8:20 AM
We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today on UK defence spending. Defence spending commitments, if met, will have a large impact on the shape and/or size of the state. We cover lots of important aspects of defence spending, including international comparisons and impacts on growth
We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at the government's ambitious plans for public sector productivity. If productivity growth disappoints, the govt will have to choose between worse public service performance than planned or topping up budgets
NEW: The government is banking on big rises in public sector productivity to deliver its plans for public services.
@maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich’s new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the outlook for public sector productivity:
[THREAD : 1/6]
@maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich’s new IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the outlook for public sector productivity:
[THREAD : 1/6]
September 19, 2025 at 7:47 AM
We have a new @theifs.bsky.social report out today looking at the government's ambitious plans for public sector productivity. If productivity growth disappoints, the govt will have to choose between worse public service performance than planned or topping up budgets
Reposted by Max Warner
A key factor at the next election will be the state of Britain's public services. That will depend on whether the government can make those services more productive, to deliver more without huge cash injections.
Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
How ambitious are the government's plans for public sector productivity? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
This event will present new analysis on the current government's plans for improving public sector productivity, with a response from Jeremy Hunt MP.
ifs.org.uk
September 15, 2025 at 9:55 AM
A key factor at the next election will be the state of Britain's public services. That will depend on whether the government can make those services more productive, to deliver more without huge cash injections.
Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
Join our @theifs.bsky.social event on Friday to hear more: ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
Govt plans for public service spending and performance rely on ambitious productivity plans. Next Friday we have an @theifs.bsky.social online event looking at these plans and their implications, with new analysis from us and reflections from @jeremyhuntmp.bsky.social.
ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
How ambitious are the government's plans for public sector productivity? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
This event will present new analysis on the current government's plans for improving public sector productivity, with a response from Jeremy Hunt MP.
ifs.org.uk
September 12, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Govt plans for public service spending and performance rely on ambitious productivity plans. Next Friday we have an @theifs.bsky.social online event looking at these plans and their implications, with new analysis from us and reflections from @jeremyhuntmp.bsky.social.
ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
ifs.org.uk/events/how-a...
Reposted by Max Warner
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Important trade-offs are involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts.
ifs.org.uk
August 27, 2025 at 8:42 AM
When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts?
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
@eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms:
ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...
There are reports that the government is considering changing student loans or pensions for resident doctors. We've written a new @theifs.bsky.social comment on the potential merits of such changes. Here's a summary:
July 19, 2025 at 8:12 AM
There are reports that the government is considering changing student loans or pensions for resident doctors. We've written a new @theifs.bsky.social comment on the potential merits of such changes. Here's a summary:
@benzaranko.bsky.social and I have a new paper out in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on the future of health and social care provision in the UK. It sets out the challenges and opportunities for increasing inputs and productivity in the NHS and adult social care in the coming decades
The UK must significantly expand health and social care supply to meet rising demand. @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explore how to boost inputs and productivity amid policy and fiscal constraints. #HealthPolicy #SocialCare
academic.oup.com/oxrep/articl...
academic.oup.com/oxrep/articl...
Future challenges for health and social care provision in the UK
Abstract. The supply of health and social (long-term) care services in the UK will need to substantially increase in coming decades to meet growing demand
academic.oup.com
June 25, 2025 at 8:12 AM
@benzaranko.bsky.social and I have a new paper out in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on the future of health and social care provision in the UK. It sets out the challenges and opportunities for increasing inputs and productivity in the NHS and adult social care in the coming decades
Reposted by Max Warner
NEW: A response to government commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security
@beeboileau.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out what this could mean for government spending and future fiscal events: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...
@beeboileau.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out what this could mean for government spending and future fiscal events: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...
ifs.org.uk
June 24, 2025 at 11:48 AM
NEW: A response to government commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security
@beeboileau.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out what this could mean for government spending and future fiscal events: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...
@beeboileau.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out what this could mean for government spending and future fiscal events: ifs.org.uk/articles/res...
Reposted by Max Warner
Spending on the new childcare entitlements next year could be £1bn higher than initially forecast in March 2023 - a 25% increase.
So what's going on? I break down the numbers that @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out in @theifs.bsky.social post-Spending Review briefing.
So what's going on? I break down the numbers that @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out in @theifs.bsky.social post-Spending Review briefing.
June 12, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Spending on the new childcare entitlements next year could be £1bn higher than initially forecast in March 2023 - a 25% increase.
So what's going on? I break down the numbers that @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out in @theifs.bsky.social post-Spending Review briefing.
So what's going on? I break down the numbers that @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social set out in @theifs.bsky.social post-Spending Review briefing.
Great work from my colleagues out today on Crown Court productivity. A relatively good news story for broader public sector productivity, with complexity adjusted Crown Court productivity appearing to have returned to pre-pandemic levels
Recent months have shown a marked productivity improvement in the Crown Court.
After adjusting for changes in case complexity, we estimate that Crown Court productivity recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.
After adjusting for changes in case complexity, we estimate that Crown Court productivity recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.
June 6, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Great work from my colleagues out today on Crown Court productivity. A relatively good news story for broader public sector productivity, with complexity adjusted Crown Court productivity appearing to have returned to pre-pandemic levels
Reposted by Max Warner
We're now just under a week away from the Spending Review, the first multi-year spending review since 2021.
Sign up for our post-Review analysis the morning after at 10:30am: ifs.org.uk/events/spend...
Sign up for our post-Review analysis the morning after at 10:30am: ifs.org.uk/events/spend...
ifs.org.uk
June 5, 2025 at 9:02 AM
We're now just under a week away from the Spending Review, the first multi-year spending review since 2021.
Sign up for our post-Review analysis the morning after at 10:30am: ifs.org.uk/events/spend...
Sign up for our post-Review analysis the morning after at 10:30am: ifs.org.uk/events/spend...
This is a key point from our pre Spending Review report. Increasing NHS capital spending implies cuts to capital spending on other areas, e.g. transport, schools or net zero, given defence plans. Seems unlikely the NHS will see a large increase in capital spending at the SR.
Although capital spending is set to be maintained at a high level, the Spring Statement in March (implicitly) promised all of the planned real-terms increase over the next four years to defence.
Increasing capital funding elsewhere therefore will mean a cut somewhere else.
Increasing capital funding elsewhere therefore will mean a cut somewhere else.
June 3, 2025 at 8:43 AM
This is a key point from our pre Spending Review report. Increasing NHS capital spending implies cuts to capital spending on other areas, e.g. transport, schools or net zero, given defence plans. Seems unlikely the NHS will see a large increase in capital spending at the SR.
We have a new IFS report out on the key decisions for the govt at the upcoming Spending Review. A short thread on what the Spending Review could mean for health spending – and why health spending matters so much for everything else. 1/12
NEW: Four big decisions for the 2025 Spending Review
@beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:
@beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:
ifs.org.uk
June 2, 2025 at 9:57 AM
We have a new IFS report out on the key decisions for the govt at the upcoming Spending Review. A short thread on what the Spending Review could mean for health spending – and why health spending matters so much for everything else. 1/12
Reposted by Max Warner
NEW: Four big decisions for the 2025 Spending Review
@beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:
@beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:
ifs.org.uk
June 1, 2025 at 7:40 AM
NEW: Four big decisions for the 2025 Spending Review
@beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:
@beeboileau.bsky.social, @maxwarner.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social explain why tough choices will be unavoidable at the upcoming Spending Review in our new briefing:
Lots of discussion today about regional investment. You can use our @theifs.bsky.social public spending tool to explore how much the government currently spends in each region of the UK, what it spends it on, and how that has changed over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
May 30, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Lots of discussion today about regional investment. You can use our @theifs.bsky.social public spending tool to explore how much the government currently spends in each region of the UK, what it spends it on, and how that has changed over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...
We have a new report out on the relationship between health-related benefits and NHS waiting lists/times. Short answer (with caveats) is that longer NHS waits do not appear to be the main driver of rising health-related benefit claims. See Ben's thread below for more details and lots of charts.
The number of working-adults receiving health-related benefits grew by 40% between November 2019 and May 2024. Could longer NHS waiting lists – which grew by 67% over that period – be to blame?
Our new @theifs.bsky.social research concludes: no, probably not 🧵
Our new @theifs.bsky.social research concludes: no, probably not 🧵
May 2, 2025 at 8:54 AM
We have a new report out on the relationship between health-related benefits and NHS waiting lists/times. Short answer (with caveats) is that longer NHS waits do not appear to be the main driver of rising health-related benefit claims. See Ben's thread below for more details and lots of charts.
Reposted by Max Warner
Today the government announced more detail on how they plan to tackle the large number of small pots in the UK pension system.
The reforms are due to be announced in the upcoming Pension Schemes bill this spring.
A few thoughts on why this matters and what was announced. 👇
The reforms are due to be announced in the upcoming Pension Schemes bill this spring.
A few thoughts on why this matters and what was announced. 👇
April 24, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Today the government announced more detail on how they plan to tackle the large number of small pots in the UK pension system.
The reforms are due to be announced in the upcoming Pension Schemes bill this spring.
A few thoughts on why this matters and what was announced. 👇
The reforms are due to be announced in the upcoming Pension Schemes bill this spring.
A few thoughts on why this matters and what was announced. 👇