Michael Plank
@michaelplanknz.bsky.social
Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Canterbury, NZ. Fellow @royalsocietynz.bsky.social. Math modelling in biology and epidemiology. Bicycles make the world a better place. He/him
https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
Reposted by Michael Plank
I think this is probably right and also a complete disaster. Just an utter unwilligness to learn from what we all collectively went through just a few years ago…
The default pandemic strategy for many countries does now seem to be "Play it by ear then lockdown and wait for a vaccine"
November 24, 2025 at 10:11 PM
I think this is probably right and also a complete disaster. Just an utter unwilligness to learn from what we all collectively went through just a few years ago…
Reposted by Michael Plank
A person in Washington State who kept backyard poultry has died from #H5N5 #flu. The person was the first known infection with this subtype of flu globally & the second recorded death in the US from an #H5 flu virus. Health authorities say there's no evidence the person spread the virus to others.
November 22, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Reposted by Michael Plank
Very interesting perspective! I often have the opposite thought: "Experimenting like a modeller"
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Modelling Like an Experimentalist
Dahlin et al. (2024) apply experimental thinking to a model of mosquito-borne disease transmissions.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Very interesting perspective! I often have the opposite thought: "Experimenting like a modeller"
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
We should not be in a situation where experts are having to debunk cherry-picked claims about vaccines on the CDC website, but here we are.
How much statistical sleight of hand can you spot in this paragraph on the new CDC website, which is now littered with muddled and flawed claims about vaccines and autism? www.cdc.gov/vaccine-safe... 🧵
November 20, 2025 at 9:51 PM
We should not be in a situation where experts are having to debunk cherry-picked claims about vaccines on the CDC website, but here we are.
Reposted by Michael Plank
I wrote more previously about the evidence base around MMR and vaccination, and why people need to make *testable* hypotheses, rather than slipperly claims that endlessly evolve after being falisified... kucharski.substack.com/p/a-wild-vac...
November 20, 2025 at 9:58 AM
I wrote more previously about the evidence base around MMR and vaccination, and why people need to make *testable* hypotheses, rather than slipperly claims that endlessly evolve after being falisified... kucharski.substack.com/p/a-wild-vac...
Reposted by Michael Plank
More data outlining how COVID vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalizations & death, especially among those aged 65 and older.
This aligns nicely with recommendations from Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization. 🇨🇦
Link: tinyurl.com/yuwmmtt4 by Hansen et al.
This aligns nicely with recommendations from Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization. 🇨🇦
Link: tinyurl.com/yuwmmtt4 by Hansen et al.
November 20, 2025 at 6:10 PM
More data outlining how COVID vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalizations & death, especially among those aged 65 and older.
This aligns nicely with recommendations from Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization. 🇨🇦
Link: tinyurl.com/yuwmmtt4 by Hansen et al.
This aligns nicely with recommendations from Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization. 🇨🇦
Link: tinyurl.com/yuwmmtt4 by Hansen et al.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Does everyone know about this one already? Meng 2018. “Statistical Paradises and Paradoxes in Big Data ...” Annals of Applied Statistics doi.org/10.1214/18-A...
November 19, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Does everyone know about this one already? Meng 2018. “Statistical Paradises and Paradoxes in Big Data ...” Annals of Applied Statistics doi.org/10.1214/18-A...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Yes, yes ... of course we can have complete confidence in the report findings of this inquiry set up for nakedly partisan purposes, given terms of reference designed to avoid criticism of a currently-governing party, and from which multiple professionals have run a mile. Why on earth would you ask?
Covid Inquiry hit by yet another top-level resignation
Inquiry boss quits only months into the job - the second executive director to resign this year
www.stuff.co.nz
November 20, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Yes, yes ... of course we can have complete confidence in the report findings of this inquiry set up for nakedly partisan purposes, given terms of reference designed to avoid criticism of a currently-governing party, and from which multiple professionals have run a mile. Why on earth would you ask?
Reposted by Michael Plank
1/ 📰 Fantastic to see the official website for the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) is now live! #GSIDD #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪
🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
🔗: www.gsidd.org
🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
🔗: www.gsidd.org
Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) | infectious disease dynamics
GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners, and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
gsidd.org
November 19, 2025 at 6:24 PM
1/ 📰 Fantastic to see the official website for the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) is now live! #GSIDD #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪
🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
🔗: www.gsidd.org
🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.
🔗: www.gsidd.org
Reposted by Michael Plank
Confidence interval discussion time! The perfect opportunity to repost this blog post answering the question you haven’t dared to ask: www.the100.ci/2024/12/05/w...
November 19, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Confidence interval discussion time! The perfect opportunity to repost this blog post answering the question you haven’t dared to ask: www.the100.ci/2024/12/05/w...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Substantial overview of HPAI H5 cases in humans, 1997-2005. Huge effort in data curation and cleaning, bring together a really clear and comprehensive story.
👉 academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-...
👉 academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-...
November 18, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Substantial overview of HPAI H5 cases in humans, 1997-2005. Huge effort in data curation and cleaning, bring together a really clear and comprehensive story.
👉 academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-...
👉 academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-...
Reposted by Michael Plank
For all those men who, on International Women's Day decry "oh but when is it ever the men's day".... it's today mate. November 19.
Happy International Men's Day.
Happy International Men's Day.
November 19, 2025 at 4:30 AM
For all those men who, on International Women's Day decry "oh but when is it ever the men's day".... it's today mate. November 19.
Happy International Men's Day.
Happy International Men's Day.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Why are there so many ways to compute a frequentist interval for a proportion? Because the sample space is discrete, coverage can be garbage without adjustment. The Agresti-Coull interval ("score" below) is really a Bayes interval with a weak prior, has good freq coverage! >
November 17, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Why are there so many ways to compute a frequentist interval for a proportion? Because the sample space is discrete, coverage can be garbage without adjustment. The Agresti-Coull interval ("score" below) is really a Bayes interval with a weak prior, has good freq coverage! >
Reposted by Michael Plank
"Government to raise cost and damage of driving".
First they weakened the fuel efficiency standards, now they're gutting the penalties for not meeting them. Basically a voluntary standard now. Penalty rates Aus: A$100/gCO2; EU: E95/gCO2; NZ: NZ$15/gCO2.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
First they weakened the fuel efficiency standards, now they're gutting the penalties for not meeting them. Basically a voluntary standard now. Penalty rates Aus: A$100/gCO2; EU: E95/gCO2; NZ: NZ$15/gCO2.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
November 17, 2025 at 7:54 AM
"Government to raise cost and damage of driving".
First they weakened the fuel efficiency standards, now they're gutting the penalties for not meeting them. Basically a voluntary standard now. Penalty rates Aus: A$100/gCO2; EU: E95/gCO2; NZ: NZ$15/gCO2.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
First they weakened the fuel efficiency standards, now they're gutting the penalties for not meeting them. Basically a voluntary standard now. Penalty rates Aus: A$100/gCO2; EU: E95/gCO2; NZ: NZ$15/gCO2.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
Reposted by Michael Plank
The importance of excessive mortality assumptions...
Left hand plot: 2017-19 average used as baseline. Conclusion: Sweden is 'best' with negative excess mortality.
Right hand plot: 2017-19 linear trend extrapolated as baseline. Conclusion: Sweden is 'worst' with huge positive excess mortality.
Left hand plot: 2017-19 average used as baseline. Conclusion: Sweden is 'best' with negative excess mortality.
Right hand plot: 2017-19 linear trend extrapolated as baseline. Conclusion: Sweden is 'worst' with huge positive excess mortality.
November 16, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The importance of excessive mortality assumptions...
Left hand plot: 2017-19 average used as baseline. Conclusion: Sweden is 'best' with negative excess mortality.
Right hand plot: 2017-19 linear trend extrapolated as baseline. Conclusion: Sweden is 'worst' with huge positive excess mortality.
Left hand plot: 2017-19 average used as baseline. Conclusion: Sweden is 'best' with negative excess mortality.
Right hand plot: 2017-19 linear trend extrapolated as baseline. Conclusion: Sweden is 'worst' with huge positive excess mortality.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Our lab's paper describing the North American H5N1 epizootic is out now in Nature! So thrilled to have this out, and congratulations to @lambod50.bsky.social for all the fantastic work on this: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Ecology and spread of the North American H5N1 epizootic - Nature
The panzootic of highly pathogenic H5N1 since 2021 was driven by around nine introductions into the Atlantic and Pacific flyways, followed by rapid dissemination through wild migratory birds, primaril...
www.nature.com
November 12, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Our lab's paper describing the North American H5N1 epizootic is out now in Nature! So thrilled to have this out, and congratulations to @lambod50.bsky.social for all the fantastic work on this: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Nice preprint by David Earn and Todd Parsons (H/T @jmccaw.bsky.social) showing how the SIR model can be related to a more general class of renewal process models that don't assume exponentially distributed infectious period.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
Epidemic Momentum
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. We introduce a unifying concept of "epidemic momentum" -- prevalence weighted by the capacity to infect in the future...
arxiv.org
November 11, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Nice preprint by David Earn and Todd Parsons (H/T @jmccaw.bsky.social) showing how the SIR model can be related to a more general class of renewal process models that don't assume exponentially distributed infectious period.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
Reposted by Michael Plank
Musing: Universities that subsist on selling expensive degrees to international students via fully online delivery will be wrecked when LLMs undercut the trust that students actually earned those degrees. Institutional reputation will suffer where in-person instruction/assessment isn't the norm
November 11, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Musing: Universities that subsist on selling expensive degrees to international students via fully online delivery will be wrecked when LLMs undercut the trust that students actually earned those degrees. Institutional reputation will suffer where in-person instruction/assessment isn't the norm
Nice preprint by David Earn and Todd Parsons (H/T @jmccaw.bsky.social) showing how the SIR model can be related to a more general class of renewal process models that don't assume exponentially distributed infectious period.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
Epidemic Momentum
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. We introduce a unifying concept of "epidemic momentum" -- prevalence weighted by the capacity to infect in the future...
arxiv.org
November 11, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Nice preprint by David Earn and Todd Parsons (H/T @jmccaw.bsky.social) showing how the SIR model can be related to a more general class of renewal process models that don't assume exponentially distributed infectious period.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
Reposted by Michael Plank
Canada has lost its measles elimination status...a sad milestone.
Now is the time to double down on lowering barriers to routine childhood immunizations and ensuring Canadians have access to credible, science-based information.
Link: tinyurl.com/c8nfxvk3
Now is the time to double down on lowering barriers to routine childhood immunizations and ensuring Canadians have access to credible, science-based information.
Link: tinyurl.com/c8nfxvk3
November 10, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Canada has lost its measles elimination status...a sad milestone.
Now is the time to double down on lowering barriers to routine childhood immunizations and ensuring Canadians have access to credible, science-based information.
Link: tinyurl.com/c8nfxvk3
Now is the time to double down on lowering barriers to routine childhood immunizations and ensuring Canadians have access to credible, science-based information.
Link: tinyurl.com/c8nfxvk3
Reposted by Michael Plank
As expected, Canada has lost its measles-free status because of the long-running outbreak there. With it goes the #measles elimination status of the entire zone of the Americas, the only division of the #WHO to ever have achieved measles elimination. www.statnews.com/2025/11/10/m...
Canada loses measles elimination status — as does the entire Americas region
Canada has formally lost its measles elimination status, the country’s public health agency announced, triggering the loss of that status throughout all of the Americas.
www.statnews.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:49 PM
As expected, Canada has lost its measles-free status because of the long-running outbreak there. With it goes the #measles elimination status of the entire zone of the Americas, the only division of the #WHO to ever have achieved measles elimination. www.statnews.com/2025/11/10/m...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Liked this: "In conclusion, thinking about modelling as experimentation does not cage creativity; it structures it, giving us better tools to ask sharper questions, present clearer answers and build cumulative science."
November 10, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Liked this: "In conclusion, thinking about modelling as experimentation does not cage creativity; it structures it, giving us better tools to ask sharper questions, present clearer answers and build cumulative science."
"Universities teach us to ask questions without tidy answers. They train us to look for truths we didn’t know existed and to challenge assumptions we didn’t realise we held. At their best, they remind us that intellect isn’t about having opinions, it’s about earning them."
November 10, 2025 at 7:38 AM
"Universities teach us to ask questions without tidy answers. They train us to look for truths we didn’t know existed and to challenge assumptions we didn’t realise we held. At their best, they remind us that intellect isn’t about having opinions, it’s about earning them."
Reposted by Michael Plank
This, from OUSA's President, is very good and warrants reading:
"For decades, governments of every stripe have treated universities as businesses to be managed rather than institutions of learning and curiosity. ... Students are rebranded as customers, research, degrees and graduates as outputs."
"For decades, governments of every stripe have treated universities as businesses to be managed rather than institutions of learning and curiosity. ... Students are rebranded as customers, research, degrees and graduates as outputs."
November 9, 2025 at 11:01 PM
This, from OUSA's President, is very good and warrants reading:
"For decades, governments of every stripe have treated universities as businesses to be managed rather than institutions of learning and curiosity. ... Students are rebranded as customers, research, degrees and graduates as outputs."
"For decades, governments of every stripe have treated universities as businesses to be managed rather than institutions of learning and curiosity. ... Students are rebranded as customers, research, degrees and graduates as outputs."
Reposted by Michael Plank
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Modelling Like an Experimentalist
Dahlin et al. (2024) apply experimental thinking to a model of mosquito-borne disease transmissions.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:18 PM
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.