Nicolas Tenzer
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nicolastenzer.bsky.social
Nicolas Tenzer
@nicolastenzer.bsky.social
Guest Prof Sc Po, Sr Fellow CEPA, Chair CERAP, Sr civil servant
Blogger IR https://tenzerstrategics.substack.com/
Derniers livres : Fin de la politique des grandes puissances, Notre Guerre Ed. l'Observatoire
#HumanRights #InternationalAffairs #SlavaUkraini
Pinned
Célébration quelque peu personnelle (encore que non) : cela fait jour pour jour un an que #NotreGuerre est paru.
Célébration aussi, malgré tout, quelque peu amère et même empreinte d'une certaine colère.
Motifs de satisfaction et aussi (le mot est faible) d'insatisfaction.
Un rapide fil.
1
Dans trois jours, le 10 janvier, il sera à vous si vous le souhaitez.
Notre Guerre. Le Crime et l'Oubli.
Il peut déjà être commandé dans votre librairie et sur les sites en ligne, notamment ici www.amazon.fr/Notre-guerre... (pour éviter les risques de rupture momentanée de stocks avant réassort).
Quasiment 50 minutes d'échanges sur l'Ukraine ce matin sur @franceinfo.fr télévision dans l'émission "L'info s'éclaire" animée par l'excellent @axeldetarle.bsky.social.
Discussion très riche et convergente en compagnie de Patricia Allemonière et Jean-Mathieu Pernin.
www.franceinfo.fr/replay-magaz...
L'info s'éclaire du Mardi 25 novembre 2025
Voir ou revoir l'émission L'info s'éclaire du Mardi 25 novembre 2025. Du lundi au vendredi de 9h30 à 10h20, en direct, invités et experts décryptent l'actualité du jour dans l'émission ": l'info s'écl...
www.franceinfo.fr
November 25, 2025 at 3:55 PM
In this 154th long read on my strategy blog, I revisit some fundamental realities of Russia's war against Ukraine that continue to be misunderstood by many leaders.
There's an urgent need to set the basic narratives straight & demonstrate intentionality.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/have-europ...
Have European Leaders Sufficiently Understood the Russian War to Convince Public Opinion That It Is Coming to Our Doorstep?
Without a Plan, There Can Be No Advocacy—Nor Action
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 11:07 PM
At the end of the day, I would readily bet that there will be no peace plan—for one simple reason, which I have often emphasized: there cannot be one with Russia.
This is not actually bad news, however, but rather the opposite—at least if Europeans prove themselves equal to the historical task.
November 24, 2025 at 1:21 PM
We must win the war against Russia for the same reason that we had to win the war against the Axis powers eighty years ago.
In both cases, there could not, and cannot, be a half-victory. That would make no practical or concrete sense, given the nature and aims of the enemy.
Period.
November 23, 2025 at 6:31 PM
In this war, there can be neither compromise nor halfway solution.
There is a simple reason for this, which must be stated with the utmost force: it is a war of total annihilation on the part of russia and, even more so, for Ukraine, and therefore for us, it is a war against radical evil.
#OurWar
November 23, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Everything in Trump's russian plan —undoubtedly also a corruption pact—is disgraceful, rotten, and unacceptable.
But I would like European leaders to show much more indignation about one thing in particular: it absolves the russians of their crimes—a full betrayal of Nuremberg's legacy.
November 23, 2025 at 10:22 AM
I 100% back this.
The Europeans should just say "no."
Let's not enter into Trump/Putin's game!
Let's not buy their narratives!
There could be no peace plan with russia, only a russian defeat plan.
It's high time for Europe to become the agenda setter.
We don’t need another delegation of European leaders flying off to Washington to kiss Trump’s ring now. We need them to get on the train to Kyiv and stand shoulder to shoulder with Zelenskyy.
November 21, 2025 at 9:27 PM
This address by President Zelenskyy is heart-wrenching.
Faced with the—expected— US betrayal, he must be able to count on Europe.
If Europe does not help Ukraine defeat russia by all necessary means, it will bury its dignity, its principles, its legitimacy—and its security.
⚡️ BREAKING: President Zelenskyy warns Ukraine is facing one of the toughest moments in its history, with a choice between dignity and the risk of losing a key ally, or accepting a hard 28-point plan and a brutal winter ahead.

1/2
November 21, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
Plan de paix en Ukraine: "L'Europe doit cesser de ménager Donald Trump comme elle le fait jusqu'à présent", dit Nicolas Tenzer, spécialiste en géostratégie

L'Ukraine travaille avec la France, l'Allemagne et le Royaume-Uni à une contre-proposition au plan américain pour mettre fin au conflit...
www.bfmtv.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:41 PM
There can be no peace plan with russia.
Full stop.
November 21, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
"Do you fear a war with #Russia in the next 4 years?"

very good & clear answers
from @nicolastenzer.bsky.social ‼️
among others :

"the war has long since reached #Europe"

& in similar words:

⛔ seeing #America as a protecting power

#Trump 's peace plan is a joke because it is dictated by Russia
November 21, 2025 at 11:43 AM
J'ai répondu ce matin aux questions de Blaise Vanderlinden sur Radio Judaica Belgique sur les risques de guerre, le prétendu plan de paix de Trump et la préparation urgente des pays européens qui doivent se déprendre de l'idée que les Etats-Unis seront à leurs côtés.
radiojudaica.be/videos/craig...
Craignez vous une guerre avec la Russie dans les 4 ans à venir ? (21/11/25)
Craignez vous une guerre avec la Russie dans les 4 ans à venir ? (21/11/25) Avec Nicolas Tenzer, spécialiste des questions géostratégiques et auteur de...
radiojudaica.be
November 21, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Plaisir d'être vers 18 h l'invité de Stéphanie Antoine
sur @france24.com dans "questions directes".
J'y suis revenu sur le pseudo-plan de paix de Trump, vrai encouragement à la guerre en Europe, et sur les propos du général Mandon @cemafr.bsky.social que je soutiens.
www.france24.com/fr/%C3%A9mis...
Questions directes - Plan de paix américain : une initiative en faveur de la Russie ?
Alors que la Maison-Blanche et le Kremlin viennent de soumettre à Kiev un nouveau plan de paix qui apparaît très largement favorable aux exigences de Moscou, plusieurs questions se posent. Pour en par...
www.france24.com
November 20, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Another evidence that Trump is fully aligned with Moscow—something I've been saying all along.
This so-called DC plan is Russia's plan, and would amount not only to Ukraine's surrender, but also to an incentive for Russia to attack Europe.
A non-starter and a disgrace.
www.ft.com/content/2353...
US and Russian officials draft new peace plan for Ukraine
Sweeping 28-point proposal would include territorial concessions and rollback of American military assistance
www.ft.com
November 19, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
If Europe wants to remain legitimate and secure, it has 3 duties:
1 Ensure the safety of the Ukrainians by closing the skies;
2 Provide the means to strike the russian troops in action;
3 Enable Kyiv to decisively hit Moscow's entire military industry."

- Nicolas Tenzer
November 17, 2025 at 12:12 AM
This act of sabotage on railways in Poland, after arson, assassination attempts, cyberattacks, other terrorist acts, etc. is nothing but a confirmation that russia is waging a war on Europe.
Let's expect more like this as long as Moscow is not defeated in Ukraine.
www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
La Pologne dénonce le « sabotage sans précédent » d’une voie ferroviaire menant vers l’Ukraine
Depuis le début de l’agression russe contre l’Ukraine, en février 2022, la Pologne, membre de l’OTAN et de l’UE, dit être la cible de tentatives de sabotage orchestrées par la Russie.
www.lemonde.fr
November 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM
J'ai répondu à Elisabeth Allain dans le JT de 13 heures de @france24.com pour commenter la rencontre et l'accord entre les présidents Zelensky et Macron (au milieu de l'entretien, leur conférence de presse commune).
Un excellent accord, mais le temps presse... www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9...
REPLAY - Macron et Zelensky signent un accord jugé "historique" par Kiev
www.france24.com
November 17, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Enervement devant une partie de cette opposition russe qui ne cesse, de manière parfois clientéliste, de se plaindre du sort des Russes (visas, avoirs gelés), mais ne manifeste nulle solidarité envers les Ukrainiens assassinés, torturés, violés, déportés.
Indécent.
www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...
Des Russes anti-Kremlin victimes collatérales des sanctions contre Moscou
Les mesures de l’Union européenne ciblant le système financier russe ont conduit au gel des avoirs de Russes exilés en Europe après le début de la guerre en Ukraine. L’institution belge Euroclear, qui...
www.lemonde.fr
November 16, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
Nicolas Tenzer of Tenzer Strategics argues a tourist‑visa ban is vital to curb russian aggression and enhance global security.

He warns unchecked tourism funds conflict, urging policy action before the crisis spreads further.

Read his Substack here: open.substack.com/pub/tenzerst...
The Necessary Tourist Visa Ban for Russians and the Failed Awareness of the “Russian Nation”
Arrogance, Exceptionalism, and War
open.substack.com
October 29, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
Public Intellectuals At Dusk
Truth, Ignorance, and Betrayal
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Again and again, massive and deadly missile and drone attacks against Kyiv.
When will European leaders finally decide to save lives? When will they decide to defeat russia? When will they start acting responsibly?
More than ever, #SkyShieldNow is imperative.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Russia attacks ‘every district’ of Kyiv, sparking fires across Ukrainian capital
Pictures posted on social media showed different sites in flames and residents gathering in rubble-strewn streets outside apartment buildings
www.theguardian.com
November 14, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
“the inability of moderate parties to produce a structuring narrative, particularly with regard to the rule of law, remains a major political issue.”

@nicolastenzer.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/tenzerst...
Public Intellectuals At Dusk
Truth, Ignorance, and Betrayal
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:50 AM
My 153rd long read on my IR blog is devoted to the role of public intellectuals.
I examine the betrayal of some, but also point out the potential contradictions of their role, the reasons for their obliteration, and discuss a forgotten ethos of thought.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/public-int...
Public Intellectuals At Dusk
Truth, Ignorance, and Betrayal
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
November 9, 2025 at 10:40 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
Ce magazine 🇬🇧 fait sa une sur l’intérêt bien compris - y compris économique - de l’Europe à soutenir 🇺🇦. Vraiment du win-win: défendre nos valeurs devrait nous rapporter gros ! Vivement que tous les dirigeants européens le comprennent… @nicolastenzer.bsky.social @berlinbridge.bsky.social
November 1, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Reposted by Nicolas Tenzer
Excellent billet de @nicolastenzer.bsky.social avec un point qui me tient particulièrement à coeur : on ne doit pas se soucier d'alimenter la propagande domestique russe. A transposer à la propagande d'extrême D, avc à l'esprit un cas qui nous a occupés ces derniers jours. bsky.app/profile/nico...
In this 152nd long read on my strategy blog, I argue for a visa ban on Russian tourists, but it is also an opportunity for me to revisit the Russian opposition, its failed duties, and the concept of collective guilt of a nation.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/the-necess...
The Necessary Tourist Visa Ban for Russians and the Failed Awareness of the “Russian Nation”
Arrogance, Exceptionalism, and War
tenzerstrategics.substack.com
October 31, 2025 at 1:14 PM