Just *published* our paper with @westernupolisci.bsky.social PhD student, Hunter Driggers, on LLM bias from party cues in annotation tasks. We extend a previous study showing annotation bias from human coders in the presence of party cues… LLM show similar bias 🧵:

rdcu.be/eIKCj

Nous nous sommes ainsi assuré de rendre le tout digeste par l'utilisation d'exemples, en limitant le jargon, et en répétant les concepts importants. 4/4

ainsi que les analyses de sensibilités en contexte descriptif. Le lecteur est ainsi amené à parfaire sa compréhension de la logique statistique derrière l'un des outils de recherche les plus courants en science politique qui est trop souvent omis de la formation méthodologique. ... 3/4

Nous abordons le concept d'ignorabilité des processus générateurs de données des sondages probabilistes et non probabilistes. Ceci nous permet d'illustrer les conditions permettant à la calibration de fonctionner; le lien entre la taille de l'échantillon, le PGD, et le biais de sélection; ... 2/4

🚨 Nouvel article en libre accès @cjps-rcsp.bsky.social! En mise à jour d'un syllabus en méthodes? Avec @yannickdufresne.bsky.social, Anne-Sophie Charest, @skelalex.bsky.social, et @nadjim10.bsky.social, nous offrons une introduction aux enjeux de la calibration des sondages — en français! 1/4

Political Science at Western University, Canada is searching for three tenure track assistant professors. There are two ads, one in International Politics (IR or comparative) and one in Comparative or Canadian. Ads are here: www.uwo.ca/facultyrelat...

🚨 I'm really happy to see my new paper "Can riots represent? A democratic theory" now out in @ajpseditor.bsky.social

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

There are times though where plots are superior to tables such as in multiple comparisons. Not to toot my own horn, but that is exactly what we tried to accomplish here:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

So, trying to add extra information contained in the table into the plot risk obscuring the message the plot was created for.

My reservation here is that to me, the goal of visualization exercises is to render immediately apparent to a lay person what is hidden away in regression tables. A visualization will never fully satisfy quantitatively inclined scholars the way a table would. It's not their point.

I'm with @dandekadt.bsky.social and @andrew.heiss.phd in that these looked like distributions of something at a first glance, but it's actually an ad hoc shading. Hence pairing them to posterior distributions would get the point across while being meaningful.

Currently in FirstView: “Decoupling Visualization and Testing when Presenting Confidence Intervals” by David Armstrong and @olsisblue.bsky.social. They develop a way to present estimates and confidence intervals to accurately visualize the underlying pairwise tests.

Forgot to mention, Prof. Armstrong also prepared open access seminars on the topic where he dives a bit more into the weeds of the issue and its implementation and usage in R and Stata. Links below!
instats.org/seminar/usin...
instats.org/seminar/usin...

This is all implemented our VizTest package. You can install the R version from here: github.com/davidaarmstr...

And the Stata version here: github.com/davidaarmstr...

Our procedure figures out what the visualized confidence level should be such that all pairwise tests are visually correct WHILE maintaining accurate comparison with 0 (the null hypothesis).

You might want to visually test whether the estimates for July 2020 and July 2022 are statistically different from each other by looking at the overlap of their CI. You might know that it's wrong, but it's so tempting!

It's out in @polanalysis.bsky.social! David Armstrong and I develop a way to present estimates and their CI that accurately visualizes the underlying pairwise tests. We provide packages in R and Stata, check it out!

doi.org/10.1017/pan....

There are new #OpenAccess articles from @polanalysis.bsky.social available on the journal's #FirstView page -

cup.org/40mppbd

Inc. papers by @tara-slough.bsky.social, @devincaughey.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, @olsisblue.bsky.social, @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @pkoc.bsky.social & and more

First full reversed rainbow! Hope @hankgreen.bsky.social is proud!

Connections
Puzzle #551
🟪🟪🟪🟪
🟦🟦🟦🟦
🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟨🟨🟨🟨