Matthew Lebo
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo
@matthewlebo.bsky.social

American politics professor in Canada at the University of Western Ontario.

Political science 38%
Economics 27%

And then ask the anchor why they frame the Republican majority's removal of healthcare subsidies as the failure of Democrats to keep them from doing that.

www.researchgate.net

Yes, Canadian Bacon seems more appropriate and also a better movie.

Reposted by Matthew Lebo

📢 Apply now! @westernu.ca Political Science offering MA & PhD Fellowship w/ Drs. Alcantara & Stephenson’s @sshrc-crsh.canada.ca project on “The Determinants of Public Support for Indigenous Reconciliation Policies”🪶 Deadline: Feb 1, 2026
#WesternU #Reconciliation #Research #ldnont #Grads #Indigenous

Now you tell me. I blew all my money on Oasis tickets.
Three German universities offering post-docs for researchers "who cannot conduct or continue their work in the USA appropriately because of actual political pressure. "
www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...
Early Career Rescue Fellowship
www.uni-konstanz.de

Worried about getting into or out of the US for APSA 2026? Or about what kind of paper you can present? Today is the deadline for Canadian PSA proposals for June 2-4 at U of Ottawa. Propose a paper or a whole panel. But do it today!

Reposted by Matthew Lebo

A mama lasagna and four babies.

At 40%, T still has solid support in Congress and the party. He went below 40 in term 1 and it didn't harm him much or get him convicted in the Senate in Jan 2021. If there's a tipping point for loud R opposition, it's far below here. 32% means losing 1 in 5 current approvers. That's a lot.
Taken together, the results reinforce what polls have shown for months: that Trump's approval is crashing with the voters who swung behind him in 2024. Young, ethnically diverse voters whose top issues are the economy and cost of living www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

Reposted by Matthew Lebo

Taken together, the results reinforce what polls have shown for months: that Trump's approval is crashing with the voters who swung behind him in 2024. Young, ethnically diverse voters whose top issues are the economy and cost of living www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

I mean when looking at month to month changes in presidential approval.

I buy that 2-yr inf predicted sentiment better under Biden. How far back does that hold? Is 2-yr inf a better predictor of presidential elections the last 40 yrs? Or did anti-Biden/Dem feeling push people and media in 2023-24 to rely on smthng different than usual to justify their partisanship/vote?

My book in progress shows inflation was disconnected from consumer sentiment under Biden to a ridiculous degree. Republicans drove down sentiment, the media did too, independents too. Had consumer sentiment reflected the actual economy to usual extent, Harris wins by 4 points.

No matter how you weight various polls, so long as the weighting doesn't change the ups and downs of approval over time are real. Like, no matter how badly you think my bathroom scale works, if it says I gained weight, I did.

Trump's approval among independents is not good but numbers like these can be deceiving. Like, many disapprovers may have called themselves Democrats in February but now say they're independents.
Trump has lost 15 points with independents since February
Trump has lost 15 points with independents since February

The Leafs just sucked the joy out of these things for you too I guess.

He only has to walk around the bases!

At his rallies he plays Fortunate Son -- a song about rich assholes buying their way out of the Viet Nam War. Also YMCA. I don't get why that was never a story.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. shows up to Game 7 in a Marie-Phillip Poulin jersey, the captain of the Canada women’s national ice hockey team

Reposted by David Darmofal

The responsibilities and opportunities for Canadian universities are perfectly aligned. But it's been 10 months of this and just drips of actions here so far.

www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
Top researchers consider leaving U.S. amid funding cuts: 'The science world is ending'
A poll from the journal Nature found that 75% of researchers in the U.S. are considering leaving the country. That includes a man who’s been dubbed the "Mozart of Math." Stephanie Sy examines what’s b...
www.pbs.org

Reposted by Matthew Lebo

📣2026 Posters Competition🖼️
Open to all participants! Join prof @yveilleuxlepage.bsky.social in making posters a highlight #CPSA_ACSP26!
⏰NOV 10 25 shorturl.at/AgUow
@devoncantwell.bsky.social @matthewlebo.bsky.social
@apsa.bsky.social @balsillieschool.bsky.social
@csnrec.bsky.social @ipsa.org

I want to make this point in something I'm writing. Have you written it somewhere a little more citable than a Bluesky post?
For @policyoptions.irpp.org, I wrote about how Canada lags its European and Anglo peers in electing women to parliament, how that harms their reputation, and, drawing on research w/ @dzobrien.bsky.social & Amanda Clayton, why voters prefer gender parity. policyoptions.irpp.org/2025/10/gend...
Canada ranks 71st for women in politics
Canada ranks 71st in the world for women in parliament. Voters support gender quotas to make politics more representative.
policyoptions.irpp.org

An Onion article on the subject would be completely identical to this one. Especially that picture.