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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo
@matthewlebo.bsky.social
880 followers 560 following 300 posts

American politics professor in Canada at the University of Western Ontario.

Videos
Political science 38%
Economics 27%
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Reposted by David Darmofal

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 7d
BLS report that was due this morning didn't come out. The ADP estimate is that private employment in the US went down 32,000 jobs in September. There were also big downward revisions for previous month. Preventing the official release of bad economic news is a big shutdown bonus for Trump.
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 9d
Yeah, but isn't it better than paying the tariff on a new one?

Reposted by Matthew Lebo

svallejovera.bsky.social
Sebastián Vallejo Vera @svallejovera.bsky.social · 11d
Just *published* our paper with @westernupolisci.bsky.social PhD student, Hunter Driggers, on LLM bias from party cues in annotation tasks. We extend a previous study showing annotation bias from human coders in the presence of party cues… LLM show similar bias 🧵:

rdcu.be/eIKCj
LLMs as annotators: the effect of party cues on labelling decisions by large language models
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications - LLMs as annotators: the effect of party cues on labelling decisions by large language models
rdcu.be
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 19d
And I feel like I've been here before
Feel like I've been here before
.
.
.
We have all been here before
We have all been here before
We have all been here before
We have all been here before
We have all been here before
We have all been here before
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 20d
Will US universities now only interview Americans and PRs?

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 27d
While the Republicans on talk shows are saying stop calling us fascists, on Fox they are upping their fascism.
atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 27d
Brian Kilmeade endorses euthanizing homeless people: "Involuntary lethal injection, or something. Just kill them."
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Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Anna O. Law, Steven Heydemann , and 65 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 27d
Brian Kilmeade endorses euthanizing homeless people: "Involuntary lethal injection, or something. Just kill them."
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · 29d
www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
Why Charlie Kirk matters
The National’s Eli Glasner breaks down the political influence of Charlie Kirk after the conservative commentator and activist was shot and killed while speaking at a Utah university.
www.cbc.ca
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Sep 8
Hipster doofus.
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Sep 8
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/national/tru...
Trump's use of troops in D.C. is an alarming preview of militarized policing: experts
WASHINGTON - On a sultry early September afternoon in Washington, D.C., tourists pulling suitcases and office workers rushing between meetings dodged past dozens of National Guard troops standing at t...
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Sep 3
Can I still regret trading Nancy Pelosi for Hakeem Jeffries?
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Sep 1
The most ridiculously unlikely event in all the movies is the final poker hand in Casino Royale.
mi6hq.bsky.social
MI6 - Home of James Bond @mi6hq.bsky.social · Aug 31
What is your most controversial James Bond opinion?

(These may be discussed in a future podcast)
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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

mi6hq.bsky.social
MI6 - Home of James Bond @mi6hq.bsky.social · Aug 31
What is your most controversial James Bond opinion?

(These may be discussed in a future podcast)
470 13 230

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 29
No, you can’t borrow Mark Carney.
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 29
Freed of the pressures of re-election, now we’ll see that Ernst acts the same as ever because she’s ok with all the fascism.
cbsnews.com
CBS News @cbsnews.com · Aug 29
BREAKING: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa won't seek reelection to Senate in 2026, sources say.
Joni Ernst won't seek reelection to Senate in 2026, sources say
GOP Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa is expected to announce next week she's not running for reelection in 2026.
cbsn.ws
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Reposted by Michael E. Mann, Pamela Samuelson, Steve Peers , and 6 more

cbsnews.com
CBS News @cbsnews.com · Aug 29
BREAKING: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa won't seek reelection to Senate in 2026, sources say.
Joni Ernst won't seek reelection to Senate in 2026, sources say
GOP Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa is expected to announce next week she's not running for reelection in 2026.
cbsn.ws
310 270 1.4K

matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 26
When the time comes, can someone etch this quote onto John Roberts' gravestone?
atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Aug 26
Trump on deploying the National Guard to Chicago: "I have the right to do anything I want to do. I'm the president of the United States."
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Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Anna O. Law, Nancy Kanwisher , and 37 more

atrupar.com
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · Aug 26
Trump on deploying the National Guard to Chicago: "I have the right to do anything I want to do. I'm the president of the United States."
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 26
Oy, which journal did you agree to edit this time?
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 19
Rocky goes 7 for 8.
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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

apsa.bsky.social
APSA @apsa.bsky.social · Aug 14
Measuring Transgender and Nonbinary Identities in Online Surveys: Evidence from Two National Election Studies

Measuring Transgender and Nonbinary Identities in Online Surveys: Evidence from Two National Election Studies By Quinn M. Albaugh, Queen’s University, Allison Harell, Université du Québec…
Measuring Transgender and Nonbinary Identities in Online Surveys: Evidence from Two National Election Studies
Measuring Transgender and Nonbinary Identities in Online Surveys: Evidence from Two National Election Studies By Quinn M. Albaugh, Queen’s University, Allison Harell, Université du Québec à Montréal, Peter John Loewen, Cornell University, Daniel Rubenson, University of Toronto, and Laura B. Stephenson, University of Western Ontario Survey researchers increasingly recognize the need to update their gender questions to recognize the existence of transgender and nonbinary people…
politicalsciencenow.com
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Reposted by Matthew Lebo

westernupolisci.bsky.social
Political Science - Western University @westernupolisci.bsky.social · Aug 11
What Texas redistricting fight means as FBI joins hunt for absent Democrats

@globalnews.ca included expert insight from Prof @matthewlebo.bsky.social in an explainer article about why Republican lawmakers in Texas are pushing to redraw the state’s congressional maps.
globalnews.ca/news/1132228...
What Texas redistricting fight means as FBI joins hunt for absent Democrats - National | Globalnews.ca
A battle over future control of the U.S. House of Representatives has spilled out of Texas into the rest of the country, with experts warning of a 'slippery slope.'
globalnews.ca
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 8
Tuna always look so ashamed they were caught.

Reposted by Cas Mudde, David M. Farrell, Damien Bol , and 3 more

daviddarmofal.bsky.social
David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · Aug 6
#polisky #psjminfo We're hiring for three faculty positions in the Department of Political Science at the University of South Carolina. All 3 positions are part of an internal departmental cluster hire in the thematic area of Problems of Democracy. A 🧵on the positions. 1/
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 6
Not a recipe but Leviticus might pair them in nearby verses.
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 4
Thanks.
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 3
What do you have in mind for #2? Isn't equal representation of the states in the Senate one of the few things that can't even be changed by constitutional amendment?
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matthewlebo.bsky.social
Matthew Lebo @matthewlebo.bsky.social · Aug 2
Yesterday's BLS July jobs report was released 8.5 hours after July ended (or 5.5 hours Pacific). Also keep that in mind when wondering why updates/revisions are necessary.
dynarski.bsky.social
Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · Aug 2
Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)
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Reposted by Michelle Dion, Barrett, Matthew Lebo , and 1 more

dariia.bsky.social
Dariia Mykhailyshyna @dariia.bsky.social · Aug 2
❗️Our next workshop will be on August 14, 6 pm CEST, on marginaleffects package by
@vincentab.bsky.social !
Register or sponsor a student by donating to support Ukraine!
Details: bit.ly/3wBeY4S
Please share! #AcademicSky #EconSky #RStats
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Reposted by Scott L. Greer, Jonathan Parker, Michael A. Clemens , and 5 more

dynarski.bsky.social
Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · Aug 2
Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...
The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)
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