Oskar Pietrewicz
@opietrewicz.bsky.social
Senior Analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Korean Peninsula, East Asia
Private opinions
Korean Peninsula, East Asia
Private opinions
Here is my brief take on the new president of South Korea.
➡️ What factors determined Lee Jae-myung's election?
➡️Who is the new president?
➡️What can the election results mean for South Korea’s domestic politics and its foreign policy?
👉 pism.pl/publications...
➡️ What factors determined Lee Jae-myung's election?
➡️Who is the new president?
➡️What can the election results mean for South Korea’s domestic politics and its foreign policy?
👉 pism.pl/publications...
June 7, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Here is my brief take on the new president of South Korea.
➡️ What factors determined Lee Jae-myung's election?
➡️Who is the new president?
➡️What can the election results mean for South Korea’s domestic politics and its foreign policy?
👉 pism.pl/publications...
➡️ What factors determined Lee Jae-myung's election?
➡️Who is the new president?
➡️What can the election results mean for South Korea’s domestic politics and its foreign policy?
👉 pism.pl/publications...
Many challenges and uncertainties lie ahead for 🇺🇸🇰🇵 relations.
➡️ unclear vision of 🇺🇸 policy towards the DPRK
➡️ 🇰🇵 has been strengthened by its alliance with Russia
➡️ the global and regional situation is much more complicated than in 2018
Find out more in my recent analysis 👇
pism.pl/publications...
➡️ unclear vision of 🇺🇸 policy towards the DPRK
➡️ 🇰🇵 has been strengthened by its alliance with Russia
➡️ the global and regional situation is much more complicated than in 2018
Find out more in my recent analysis 👇
pism.pl/publications...
May 21, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Many challenges and uncertainties lie ahead for 🇺🇸🇰🇵 relations.
➡️ unclear vision of 🇺🇸 policy towards the DPRK
➡️ 🇰🇵 has been strengthened by its alliance with Russia
➡️ the global and regional situation is much more complicated than in 2018
Find out more in my recent analysis 👇
pism.pl/publications...
➡️ unclear vision of 🇺🇸 policy towards the DPRK
➡️ 🇰🇵 has been strengthened by its alliance with Russia
➡️ the global and regional situation is much more complicated than in 2018
Find out more in my recent analysis 👇
pism.pl/publications...
My short take on the decision made by South Korea’s Constitutional Court, which upheld the parliament’s decision to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol for illegally declaring martial law last December.
pism.pl/publications...
pism.pl/publications...
April 5, 2025 at 8:01 PM
My short take on the decision made by South Korea’s Constitutional Court, which upheld the parliament’s decision to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol for illegally declaring martial law last December.
pism.pl/publications...
pism.pl/publications...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
If we take opposition to Yoon's impeachment as a measure of authoritarian political attitudes, there are some observations we can make and hypotheses, some competing, that we can consider. 👇
With Yoon's impeachment ruling due this Friday, here's Gallup Korea polling data from the 4th week of March.
Support/oppose impeachment-ALL: 60/34 (+26)
-progressives: 93/5 (+88)
-conservatives: 27/69 (-42)
-18-29: 62/26 (+36)
-70+: 35/58 (-23)
-18-29 males: 52/36 (+16)
-18-29 females: 72/15 (+57)
Support/oppose impeachment-ALL: 60/34 (+26)
-progressives: 93/5 (+88)
-conservatives: 27/69 (-42)
-18-29: 62/26 (+36)
-70+: 35/58 (-23)
-18-29 males: 52/36 (+16)
-18-29 females: 72/15 (+57)
April 1, 2025 at 9:04 AM
If we take opposition to Yoon's impeachment as a measure of authoritarian political attitudes, there are some observations we can make and hypotheses, some competing, that we can consider. 👇
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
S. Korea and US should initiate concrete, practical — and largely nonexternal — discussions on the intractable, long-avoided question of their alliance’s role in a Taiwan contingency, moving beyond rhetorical alignment on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
www.koreaherald.com/article/1045...
www.koreaherald.com/article/1045...
South Korea, US should go beyond rhetoric, get real on Taiwan contingency: report
Allies should clarify expectations for role of alliance in event of US-China conflict South Korea and the United States should initiate concrete, practical — and largely nonexternal — discussions on t...
www.koreaherald.com
April 1, 2025 at 9:25 AM
S. Korea and US should initiate concrete, practical — and largely nonexternal — discussions on the intractable, long-avoided question of their alliance’s role in a Taiwan contingency, moving beyond rhetorical alignment on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
www.koreaherald.com/article/1045...
www.koreaherald.com/article/1045...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Spring issue of Global Asia has just dropped, with a cover package on Martial Law in South Korea-- a topic that should get more global attention IMHO
www.globalasia.org/latest-issue...
www.globalasia.org/latest-issue...
March 26, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Spring issue of Global Asia has just dropped, with a cover package on Martial Law in South Korea-- a topic that should get more global attention IMHO
www.globalasia.org/latest-issue...
www.globalasia.org/latest-issue...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
South Koreans and Europeans agree that Russia is a threat, Ukraine needs support and that the new US administration is trouble, writes @alexlipke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
Read his new commentary:
Read his new commentary:
Polls, peril and partnership: Why South Korea and the EU are natural allies
South Koreans and Europeans agree that Russia is a threat, Ukraine needs support and that the new US administration is trouble. As Trump shakes the global security order, their shared concerns could…
buff.ly
March 20, 2025 at 5:00 PM
South Koreans and Europeans agree that Russia is a threat, Ukraine needs support and that the new US administration is trouble, writes @alexlipke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social
Read his new commentary:
Read his new commentary:
North Korea is playing a bigger role in Russia’s war on Ukraine than one might think. And it may turn out to be one of the pieces in the larger puzzle of U.S.-Russian talks on a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. I would consider several possibilities 🧵🇰🇵🇷🇺🇺🇸
March 10, 2025 at 7:19 PM
North Korea is playing a bigger role in Russia’s war on Ukraine than one might think. And it may turn out to be one of the pieces in the larger puzzle of U.S.-Russian talks on a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. I would consider several possibilities 🧵🇰🇵🇷🇺🇺🇸
In my recent analysis for the Polish Institute of International Affairs, I argue that the evolution of 🇰🇷 domestic situation, the definition of the terms of the alliance, 🇰🇷 stance on 🇺🇸🇨🇳 rivalry, and the coordination of policies towards 🇰🇵 will be crucial for South Korea’s alliance with the U.S. 👇
February 12, 2025 at 7:39 PM
In my recent analysis for the Polish Institute of International Affairs, I argue that the evolution of 🇰🇷 domestic situation, the definition of the terms of the alliance, 🇰🇷 stance on 🇺🇸🇨🇳 rivalry, and the coordination of policies towards 🇰🇵 will be crucial for South Korea’s alliance with the U.S. 👇
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Ishiba’s first meeting with Trump is over, and, at first glance, it appears that Ishiba returns to Tokyo with what he needed. Some initial thoughts here:
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
When Ishiba met Trump
Some initial thoughts on their first summit
open.substack.com
February 7, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Ishiba’s first meeting with Trump is over, and, at first glance, it appears that Ishiba returns to Tokyo with what he needed. Some initial thoughts here:
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
1/ I've obtained the 101-page indictment against President Yoon Suk Yeol detailing the December 3, 2024 martial law incident. He's charged with leading an insurrection (내란우두머리).
Here's a breakdown of the allegations:
Here's a breakdown of the allegations:
According to 101-page indictment obtained by lawmakers, orders were given at the presidential office just before martial law declaration on Dec 3. Lee then called police chief at 11:34pm and fire agency chief at 11:37pm to coordinate planned media shutdown.
www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR2025...
www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR2025...
尹, 계엄선포 전후 이상민에 "언론사 봉쇄하고 단전·단수" 지시 | 연합뉴스
(서울=연합뉴스) 이보배 권희원 이민영 기자 = 윤석열 대통령이 '12·3 비상계엄' 선포 전후 언론사들을 봉쇄하고 소방청을 통해 단전·단수를 ...
www.yna.co.kr
February 6, 2025 at 2:19 PM
1/ I've obtained the 101-page indictment against President Yoon Suk Yeol detailing the December 3, 2024 martial law incident. He's charged with leading an insurrection (내란우두머리).
Here's a breakdown of the allegations:
Here's a breakdown of the allegations:
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
US SecState Rubio’s call with his ROK counterpart does not mention denuclearization of Korean Peninsula. A signal to Kim Jong Un? www.state.gov/secretary-ru...
January 23, 2025 at 3:37 AM
US SecState Rubio’s call with his ROK counterpart does not mention denuclearization of Korean Peninsula. A signal to Kim Jong Un? www.state.gov/secretary-ru...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
New SWP policy paper analyzing the motives driving South Korea's ever-closer relations with NATO.
👇
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
👇
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
South Korea’s Ever-Closer Relations with NATO
Intersecting and Varying Motives of South Korea’s Moon Jae-in and Yoon Suk-yeol Administrations
www.swp-berlin.org
January 21, 2025 at 4:44 PM
New SWP policy paper analyzing the motives driving South Korea's ever-closer relations with NATO.
👇
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
👇
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Democratic Regression and Resilience in South Korea: Lessons from the Martial Law Crisis globalasia.org/forum/democr...
Democratic Regression and Resilience in South Korea: Lessons from the Martial Law Crisis
globalasia.org
January 19, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Democratic Regression and Resilience in South Korea: Lessons from the Martial Law Crisis globalasia.org/forum/democr...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
1/ Breaking: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been formally detained after a Seoul court approved full detention warrant, marking an unprecedented moment in the country's history.
The decision came at 3am after a 5-hour court hearing. www.news1.kr/society/cour...
The decision came at 3am after a 5-hour court hearing. www.news1.kr/society/cour...
'내란 우두머리' 혐의 尹 대통령 구속…헌정사상 처음(종합2보)
尹 직접 출석해 입장 밝혔지만…법원 "증거인멸 우려" 서울구치소 수용동 이동…수형복 입고 머그샷·지문 채취 12·3 비상계엄을 선포해 내란 우두머리 혐의를 받는 윤석열 대통령이 19일 구속됐다. 현직 대통령 구속은 헌정사상 처음이다. 비상계엄 선포 47일만,
www.news1.kr
January 18, 2025 at 10:24 PM
1/ Breaking: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been formally detained after a Seoul court approved full detention warrant, marking an unprecedented moment in the country's history.
The decision came at 3am after a 5-hour court hearing. www.news1.kr/society/cour...
The decision came at 3am after a 5-hour court hearing. www.news1.kr/society/cour...
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Incredible scene in Seoul tonight as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s supporters are storming the Seoul courthouse in response to his arrest. They are smashing the windows and vandalising the offices.
January 18, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Incredible scene in Seoul tonight as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s supporters are storming the Seoul courthouse in response to his arrest. They are smashing the windows and vandalising the offices.
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
"Several Trump 2.0 senior officials are on the record demanding South Korea’s greater implication in cooperating with the U.S. to contain China. This is arguably the area with the greatest potential for a Washington-Seoul clash."
Rust on the ironclad alliance?
The U.S.-South Korea relationship is about to enter a period of uncertainty. On Jan. 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated - for a second time - as the 47th president of the United States. Judging by h...
www.koreatimes.co.kr
January 17, 2025 at 12:30 AM
"Several Trump 2.0 senior officials are on the record demanding South Korea’s greater implication in cooperating with the U.S. to contain China. This is arguably the area with the greatest potential for a Washington-Seoul clash."
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
My big picture piece on US-South Korea relations following Yoon's martial law decree:
I look at why the Biden admin seemed to overlook obvious red flags about Yoon, how Trump may handle the relationship, and whether things can return to normal anytime soon.
I look at why the Biden admin seemed to overlook obvious red flags about Yoon, how Trump may handle the relationship, and whether things can return to normal anytime soon.
How Yoon's martial law bid complicates US-South Korea ties
Fallout could impact ties under Trump administration, analysts warn
www.voanews.com
January 11, 2025 at 2:49 AM
My big picture piece on US-South Korea relations following Yoon's martial law decree:
I look at why the Biden admin seemed to overlook obvious red flags about Yoon, how Trump may handle the relationship, and whether things can return to normal anytime soon.
I look at why the Biden admin seemed to overlook obvious red flags about Yoon, how Trump may handle the relationship, and whether things can return to normal anytime soon.
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Mason Richey assesses #SouthKorea's martial law declaration and its aftermath through the lens of political science. bit.ly/4gKPYy4
K-Coup and its Limits: Popular Sovereignty, Civic Virtue, and Political Science Blind Spots - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
When abrupt, consequential political events happen, we tend to have recourse to the general to ...
bit.ly
January 9, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Mason Richey assesses #SouthKorea's martial law declaration and its aftermath through the lens of political science. bit.ly/4gKPYy4
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
What has happened today in Seoul, and what will happen from now on?
Let me address a few questions:
Let me address a few questions:
January 3, 2025 at 8:03 AM
What has happened today in Seoul, and what will happen from now on?
Let me address a few questions:
Let me address a few questions:
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
1/ South Korea's acting president Choi Sang-mok appointed two of three Constitutional Court nominees today, allowing the court to properly proceed with suspended president Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial. But the selective appointment has drawn criticism from all sides.
December 31, 2024 at 1:41 PM
1/ South Korea's acting president Choi Sang-mok appointed two of three Constitutional Court nominees today, allowing the court to properly proceed with suspended president Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial. But the selective appointment has drawn criticism from all sides.
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
Support for DP declining for two consecutive weeks to 45.8%
PPP up at 30.6%.
60.4% of poll respondents want a transition of power to the opposition, 32.3% want to continue with the ruling party
PPP up at 30.6%.
60.4% of poll respondents want a transition of power to the opposition, 32.3% want to continue with the ruling party
December 31, 2024 at 1:46 PM
Support for DP declining for two consecutive weeks to 45.8%
PPP up at 30.6%.
60.4% of poll respondents want a transition of power to the opposition, 32.3% want to continue with the ruling party
PPP up at 30.6%.
60.4% of poll respondents want a transition of power to the opposition, 32.3% want to continue with the ruling party
Reposted by Oskar Pietrewicz
In this short reflection article for the Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, I focus on the impact of the New Right and election conspiracies among the Korean far right on Yoon's decision to declare martial law. 1/
apjjf.org/2024/12/engel
apjjf.org/2024/12/engel
Making Sense of South Korea’s Senseless Martial Law Declaration - The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus
apjjf.org
December 29, 2024 at 2:08 PM
In this short reflection article for the Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, I focus on the impact of the New Right and election conspiracies among the Korean far right on Yoon's decision to declare martial law. 1/
apjjf.org/2024/12/engel
apjjf.org/2024/12/engel