Paul Hodges
@paulhodges1.bsky.social
Insights from the chemical industry as the best leading indicator for the global economy. Special focus on geopolitics, energy markets and demographics. New Normal Consulting, The pH Report
Pinned
Paul Hodges
@paulhodges1.bsky.social
· Apr 5
Here’s the iPhone. Here’s the iPhone With Tariffs.
This is what Apple pays for components inside its bestselling phone, and how Trump’s China tariffs could raise the bill.
www.wsj.com
Pre-tariffs, the iPhone 16 Pro 256GB version cost Apple $580 to produce. With tariffs, the cost rises to $850. The current sales price is $1,100. So does Apple hold the price and take a massive hit to margins? Or does it add $270 to the price and risk losing sales? www.wsj.com/tech/persona...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
"Nigel Farage has been paid over £330,000 by GB News in the last year alone.
Farage is deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC".
Punchy video from @eddavey.libdems.org.uk.
Farage is deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC".
Punchy video from @eddavey.libdems.org.uk.
Donald Trump is gunning for the BBC, and Farage is cheering him on. Want to know why? Follow the money…
November 19, 2025 at 6:14 PM
"Nigel Farage has been paid over £330,000 by GB News in the last year alone.
Farage is deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC".
Punchy video from @eddavey.libdems.org.uk.
Farage is deep in the pockets of a company that aims to replace the BBC".
Punchy video from @eddavey.libdems.org.uk.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Do you know who is paying for Trump’s ballroom?
Amazon
Google
Apple
Meta
And a bunch of other companies that coincidentally have business in front of the Trump Administration right now.
So are these companies getting special favors in return? I’m pressing for answers.
Amazon
Apple
Meta
And a bunch of other companies that coincidentally have business in front of the Trump Administration right now.
So are these companies getting special favors in return? I’m pressing for answers.
November 16, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Do you know who is paying for Trump’s ballroom?
Amazon
Google
Apple
Meta
And a bunch of other companies that coincidentally have business in front of the Trump Administration right now.
So are these companies getting special favors in return? I’m pressing for answers.
Amazon
Apple
Meta
And a bunch of other companies that coincidentally have business in front of the Trump Administration right now.
So are these companies getting special favors in return? I’m pressing for answers.
Last week, the European Parliament voted to simplify reporting for most companies, and balance Green Deal ambitions with competitiveness. But the pace of change needs to dramatically increase if this critical industry is to survive new-normal.com/chemical-com...
INEOS files anti-dumping suits as European chemicals crisis worsens - New Normal
We have warned for some time that Europe's chemical industry is facing an existential crisis. Now INEOS, one of Europe's major chemical companies, has raised the alarm in respect of its own core busin...
new-normal.com
November 16, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Last week, the European Parliament voted to simplify reporting for most companies, and balance Green Deal ambitions with competitiveness. But the pace of change needs to dramatically increase if this critical industry is to survive new-normal.com/chemical-com...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
The man needs help.
November 15, 2025 at 2:55 AM
The man needs help.
Is there a future for European chemicals????? www.icis.com/explore/is-t...
Is there a future for European chemicals? | ICIS
As demographics shift and new priorities emerge, Europe’s chemical industry must drive growth in sustainability, defence and innovation.
www.icis.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Is there a future for European chemicals????? www.icis.com/explore/is-t...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
NEW
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
By me. Enjoy.
emptycity.substack.com/p/the-letter...
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
By me. Enjoy.
emptycity.substack.com/p/the-letter...
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
emptycity.substack.com
November 12, 2025 at 12:00 PM
NEW
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
By me. Enjoy.
emptycity.substack.com/p/the-letter...
The letter the BBC could send back to Trump
A proposal for a reply to his $1bn claim
By me. Enjoy.
emptycity.substack.com/p/the-letter...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Joke’s on everyone who said liberal arts degrees don’t prepare you for the real world - my studies in rise of the Third Reich now doubles as a survival guide.
November 11, 2025 at 6:04 AM
Joke’s on everyone who said liberal arts degrees don’t prepare you for the real world - my studies in rise of the Third Reich now doubles as a survival guide.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
As skepticism of AI deepens, we keep coming back to this Gary Marcus interview from May — where he argued OpenAI would be “the WeWork of AI.”
@cnbc.com @garymarcus.bsky.social
www.cnbc.com/video/2024/0...
@cnbc.com @garymarcus.bsky.social
www.cnbc.com/video/2024/0...
November 9, 2025 at 5:17 PM
As skepticism of AI deepens, we keep coming back to this Gary Marcus interview from May — where he argued OpenAI would be “the WeWork of AI.”
@cnbc.com @garymarcus.bsky.social
www.cnbc.com/video/2024/0...
@cnbc.com @garymarcus.bsky.social
www.cnbc.com/video/2024/0...
Today's key issue is that we are seeing the end of the 'middle market'. We are now returning to a world where companies compete on Value or Luxury. The highly profitable middle market of ‘affordable luxury’ is disappearing. new-normal.com/consumer-dem...
iPhone captures Luxury market whilst Samsung's Galaxy competes with low-cost Value players - New Normal
The global smartphone market peaked 8 years ago, with annualised sales of 1.55bn, as the chart shows. Q3 volumes this year were 19% lower at 1.25bn.
new-normal.com
November 9, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Today's key issue is that we are seeing the end of the 'middle market'. We are now returning to a world where companies compete on Value or Luxury. The highly profitable middle market of ‘affordable luxury’ is disappearing. new-normal.com/consumer-dem...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
New York millionaires: threatening to flee the city since 2009
November 7, 2025 at 9:36 PM
New York millionaires: threatening to flee the city since 2009
Reposted by Paul Hodges
FRED HICKEY: “.. GenAI is probably the most over-hyped technology I’ve ever witnessed in my 45 years of following tech stocks.”
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
November 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
FRED HICKEY: “.. GenAI is probably the most over-hyped technology I’ve ever witnessed in my 45 years of following tech stocks.”
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
@reuters.com
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
The key issue is that demand growth is slowing due to the rise of the Perennials 55+ generation. They are a 'replacement economy'. And the major disruption underway in trade patterns increases the risk of buying imports. new-normal.com/consumer-dem...
Services become key as markets return to a more local-for-local focus - New Normal
President's Trump's Tariff War is evolving into a full-scale Trade War. And companies are realising they need to rethink their business models if they want to survive.
new-normal.com
November 2, 2025 at 9:38 AM
The key issue is that demand growth is slowing due to the rise of the Perennials 55+ generation. They are a 'replacement economy'. And the major disruption underway in trade patterns increases the risk of buying imports. new-normal.com/consumer-dem...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
Amazon is helping fund a $300 million build of a ballroom for the White House.
Independent bookstores are donating to food banks and organizations that help with food insecurity.
They are not the same.
Independent bookstores are donating to food banks and organizations that help with food insecurity.
They are not the same.
October 30, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Amazon is helping fund a $300 million build of a ballroom for the White House.
Independent bookstores are donating to food banks and organizations that help with food insecurity.
They are not the same.
Independent bookstores are donating to food banks and organizations that help with food insecurity.
They are not the same.
As legendary investor Warren Buffett warned long ago, a lot of problems can be hidden during a boom. The risk is that we may now be about to relearn the message of his famous quote: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” new-normal.com/financial-ev...
“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO - New Normal
The collapse of the Bear Stearns investment bank in March 2008 was the first sign that the subprime crisis was underway. It had to be rescued by JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon. And now Dimon is warning t...
new-normal.com
October 27, 2025 at 7:49 AM
As legendary investor Warren Buffett warned long ago, a lot of problems can be hidden during a boom. The risk is that we may now be about to relearn the message of his famous quote: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” new-normal.com/financial-ev...
As legendary investor Warren Buffett warned long ago, a lot of problems can be hidden during a boom. The risk is that we may now be about to relearn the message of his famous quote: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” new-normal.com/financial-ev...
“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO - New Normal
The collapse of the Bear Stearns investment bank in March 2008 was the first sign that the subprime crisis was underway. It had to be rescued by JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon. And now Dimon is warning t...
new-normal.com
October 26, 2025 at 10:20 AM
As legendary investor Warren Buffett warned long ago, a lot of problems can be hidden during a boom. The risk is that we may now be about to relearn the message of his famous quote: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” new-normal.com/financial-ev...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
1/2
Interesting Bloomberg article on problems in China's commercial real estate market: "Office vacancies in major Chinese metropolitan cities are now among the world’s highest, ranging from 20% to more than 40%."
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Interesting Bloomberg article on problems in China's commercial real estate market: "Office vacancies in major Chinese metropolitan cities are now among the world’s highest, ranging from 20% to more than 40%."
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
A Troubled $140 Billion Bet on China Property Gets Even Worse
Many foreign investors are stuck with real estate assets that are increasingly difficult to sell.
www.bloomberg.com
October 21, 2025 at 7:59 AM
1/2
Interesting Bloomberg article on problems in China's commercial real estate market: "Office vacancies in major Chinese metropolitan cities are now among the world’s highest, ranging from 20% to more than 40%."
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Interesting Bloomberg article on problems in China's commercial real estate market: "Office vacancies in major Chinese metropolitan cities are now among the world’s highest, ranging from 20% to more than 40%."
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
“President Poop, we’ll call him.” 💩
@usatoday.com @rexhuppke.bsky.social @willbunch.bsky.social
www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...
@usatoday.com @rexhuppke.bsky.social @willbunch.bsky.social
www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...
October 20, 2025 at 5:04 PM
“President Poop, we’ll call him.” 💩
@usatoday.com @rexhuppke.bsky.social @willbunch.bsky.social
www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...
@usatoday.com @rexhuppke.bsky.social @willbunch.bsky.social
www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
The president of the United States posted a video of him defecating on the American people. Many in my profession normalized it. This is a big reason why we are where we are.
October 20, 2025 at 12:08 PM
The president of the United States posted a video of him defecating on the American people. Many in my profession normalized it. This is a big reason why we are where we are.
Reposted by Paul Hodges
7/9
Americans believed that success meant consuming more than they produce, and the Chinese believed that success meant producing more than they consume. They were both wrong, of course.
Americans believed that success meant consuming more than they produce, and the Chinese believed that success meant producing more than they consume. They were both wrong, of course.
October 19, 2025 at 5:23 AM
7/9
Americans believed that success meant consuming more than they produce, and the Chinese believed that success meant producing more than they consume. They were both wrong, of course.
Americans believed that success meant consuming more than they produce, and the Chinese believed that success meant producing more than they consume. They were both wrong, of course.
It is hard to accept the @iea.org belief that petchems can drive future oil market growth. Demographics mean that global petchem demand is probably already close to peaking. And ethane is an increasingly competitive alternative to high-priced oil and naphtha new-normal.com/oil-markets/...
Wishful thinking prompts IEA's belief that petchems can drive oil demand growth - New Normal
The petrochemical sector seems very unlikely to become key for oil demand growth.
new-normal.com
October 19, 2025 at 8:32 AM
It is hard to accept the @iea.org belief that petchems can drive future oil market growth. Demographics mean that global petchem demand is probably already close to peaking. And ethane is an increasingly competitive alternative to high-priced oil and naphtha new-normal.com/oil-markets/...
Reposted by Paul Hodges
BILL GROSS: “.. Regional bank ‘cockroaches’ may continue to affect stocks AND bonds ..” 🪳
$KRE $GLD
$KRE $GLD
October 17, 2025 at 4:34 PM
BILL GROSS: “.. Regional bank ‘cockroaches’ may continue to affect stocks AND bonds ..” 🪳
$KRE $GLD
$KRE $GLD
Reposted by Paul Hodges
"They want the truth that no one else dares tell them, even if the reason is because that it isn’t actually true".
www.ft.com/content/ffdd...
www.ft.com/content/ffdd...
Is there an OnlyFans model for politics?
Willing to hold increasingly outrageous opinions for clicks? There’s an online audience out there for you
www.ft.com
October 17, 2025 at 11:33 AM
"They want the truth that no one else dares tell them, even if the reason is because that it isn’t actually true".
www.ft.com/content/ffdd...
www.ft.com/content/ffdd...
Oil prices seem likely to continue under pressure. Inventories are at near-record levels. President Trump's Trade War is slowing the global/US economy. His Gaza peace deal creates the potential of a new Iran nuclear deal. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea may also reduce new-normal.com/oil-markets/...
Today's oil market appears calm - but risks are rising under the surface - New Normal
Oil markets face a triple challenge over the next few months. OPEC's price war is continuing. President Trump's Trade War is slowing the global.US economy. And inventories are already near record leve...
new-normal.com
October 12, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Oil prices seem likely to continue under pressure. Inventories are at near-record levels. President Trump's Trade War is slowing the global/US economy. His Gaza peace deal creates the potential of a new Iran nuclear deal. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea may also reduce new-normal.com/oil-markets/...