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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 7h

Yes, only this time it's the canary on the conveyor belt.

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 7h

Candidly, the crowd should be far more concerned about the overlapping web of capital-moving conveyor belts now being exposed by the First Brand and Tricolor bankruptcies than the one that has recently received all the attention in AI.

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 8h

The game of "Where's Waldo?" continues...

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 12h

Insurers are preparing for a wave of potential claims relating to First Brands’ bankruptcy, as one of Wall Street's biggest debacles in years ripples through the financial system

Latest on the contagion from the auto parts firm’s collapse, with the great @leeharris.ft.com here 👇🏻

on.ft.com/48iuBCO

Insurers prepare for wave of First Brands claims

[FREE TO READ] Allianz, Coface and AIG among groups to have written credit insurance policies linked to bankrupt car parts maker

on.ft.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 1d

Something something K-Shaped Economy

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 1d

PEPSI CEO, on @cnbc.com:

Lower-income consumers are "stretched, very stretched." Hispanics "are especially hurting. We see their mobility, their income, their behavior changing. .. They don't meet their friends as often. .. We're concerned about some parts of the population."

$PEP

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 1d

While this is far less exciting than tweets about the growing weave of intersecting capital conveyor belts in AI, as I look ahead, I expect this will matter far more:

www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-k-...

Why The "K-Shaped Economy" Really Matters

I am often asked why I am so concerned about America's K-Shaped Economy. So, let me explain.

www.linkedin.com

Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 1d

I see UK policymakers have moved from trickle down to bottoms up economics...

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 1d

As I watch the aftermath of the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies, I am reminded of the book "Where's Waldo?" as the crowd scrambles to figure out who the unlucky are who have exposure.

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Reposted by Peter Atwater

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 2d

‘Widely shared hopelessness fuels highly impulsive and emotional "Me Here Now" behavior - what I call the 5F's: Fight, flight, freeze, follow and fuck-it. We aren't there yet, but there a plenty of signs that suggest the conditions are ripe for 5F behavior.’ www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-k-...

Why The "K-Shaped Economy" Really Matters

I am often asked why I am so concerned about America's K-Shaped Economy. So, let me explain.

www.linkedin.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 2d

The game of "Where's Waldo?" continues...

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 2d

🚨 JEFFERIES REVEALS $715MN FUND EXPOSURE TO FIRST BRANDS INVOICES 🚨

Jefferies has said that one of its credit funds has ~$715mn of exposure linked to First Brands Group, making the US investment bank one of the largest-known creditors to the bankrupt auto parts firm.

www.ft.com/content/8d47...

Jefferies reveals $715mn fund exposure to First Brands invoices

US investment bank is one of the largest-known creditors to the bankrupt auto parts firm

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Peter Atwater

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 2d

🚨 JEFFERIES REVEALS $715MN FUND EXPOSURE TO FIRST BRANDS INVOICES 🚨

Jefferies has said that one of its credit funds has ~$715mn of exposure linked to First Brands Group, making the US investment bank one of the largest-known creditors to the bankrupt auto parts firm.

www.ft.com/content/8d47...

Jefferies reveals $715mn fund exposure to First Brands invoices

US investment bank is one of the largest-known creditors to the bankrupt auto parts firm

www.ft.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 2d

I am often asked why I care so much about the "K-Shaped Economy."

As I share below, it has far less to do with economics than it does the staggering gap in confidence between those at the top and bottom and what that suggests.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-k-...

Why The "K-Shaped Economy" Really Matters

I am often asked why I am so concerned about America's K-Shaped Economy. So, let me explain.

www.linkedin.com

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Reposted by Peter Atwater

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2d

With Buy Now, Pay Later, “everything she ever coveted was suddenly up for grabs. In retrospect, she told me, “it was like throwing gasoline on a burning fire.”

@nytimes.com @peteratwater.bsky.social $AFRM
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/m...

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 2d

The game of "Where's Waldo?" begins...

Robert Smith @bondhack.ft.com · 2d

🔥FIRST BRANDS NIGHTMARE ON WALL STREET SPREADS TO PARADEPLATZ 🔥

A UBS fund has 30 per cent of its portfolio tied to the failed First Brands Group, leaving Switzerland’s largest bank grappling with a bankruptcy that has convulsed global finance.

Lots more scoopy detail here: on.ft.com/46VXxhD

UBS fund holds 30% exposure linked to First Brands

[FREE TO READ] Switzerland’s largest bank has multiple investments tied to bankrupt auto parts maker

on.ft.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 2d

It will be very interesting to see how the crowd reacts to this article when it hits the print edition of Sunday's NYTimes.

nytimes.com/2025/10/07/m...

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 3d

"imagined" demand.

The future is inherently unknown. Therefore, we must imagine it.

Nicholas Brown @nicholasabrown.bsky.social · 3d

$DELL | Dell Hikes Estimates For Next Four Years On Strong AI Demand - BBG

Dell Hikes Estimates for Next Four Years on Strong AI Demand

Dell Technologies Inc. roughly doubled its growth estimates for sales and profit for the next two years, and said demand for artificial intelligence products will extend those higher projections at le...

www.bloomberg.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 4d

"Impossible not to own it."

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 4d

“It’s gold-plated Fomo. Gold has become so big . . . that you cannot ignore it. There becomes a level when it becomes impossible not to own it.”
www.ft.com/content/54dc...

‘Gold-plated Fomo’ powers bullion’s record-breaking rally

Price has rocketed 50% this year, its best performance since 1979, as institutional investors pile in

www.ft.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 4d

ICYMI - Two weeks ago, I had the wonderful opportunity to catch up again with the always thoughtful Jawad Mian.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

The Confidence Game: AI, Trump, and the S&P 500

Podcast Episode · Stray Reflections · 09/28/2025 · 45m

podcasts.apple.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 4d

LOL The modern redefinition of "All hat. No cattle."

Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 4d

Billionaire beef baron warns US not producing enough to satisfy protein craze on.ft.com/4nB1zmv

Billionaire beef baron warns US not producing enough to satisfy protein craze

JBS’s Wesley Batista says strong US demand is pushing country towards imports despite Trump’s tariffs

on.ft.com

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Reposted by Peter Atwater

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social · 5d

‘According to the Google Trends, search interest for "day trading class" is up 700% the past quarter and hit an all-time high this summer. Search interest in "trading coach" is up 325% over the same timeframe, while interest in "day trading group" is up 572%.‘ www.businessinsider.com/day-trading-...

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 6d

$78 Billion in deals and nobody even blinks...

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 7d

With the shutdown blame game now an Olympic sport, some thoughts on how and why we blame as we do when bad things happen.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/beware...

Beware Knee-Jerk Blame That Fits

When bad things happen, we demand answers. We abhor randomness, and identifying the clear cause of an unfortunate experience reduces our feelings of uncertainty.

www.linkedin.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 7d

At peaks in confidence, the naysayers have been silenced.

Unknowingly, this further feeds the feelings of invulnerability of the bulls, as they can look around and say, "See, not one person disagrees with me!"

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 9d

Our garage band of the morning - "Private Market Blowups and The Retail Investor" comes from the headlines.

It's not a pleasant sound.

Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 10d

Private Market Blowups Highlight Perils for Retail Investors www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Private Market Blowups Highlight Perils for Retail Investors

Massage therapist James Lakin didn’t even know it was possible for outsiders to buy stakes in private companies until a client told him that he could be approved to do so on a platform called Linqto. ...

www.bloomberg.com

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 10d

Something something K-Shaped Economy...

Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 10d

*DELTA CEO: TOUGH AT THE LOWER END OF THE CONSUMER SEGMENT

*DELTA CEO SAYS BUSINESS TRAVEL IS BOOMING

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Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 11d

Last week, I had the chance to catch up with one of my favorite thinkers and writers, Jawad Mian.

If you aren't familiar with his work, I highly recommend it.

share.transistor.fm/s/e5775de3

The Confidence Game: AI, Trump, and the S&P 500 | Stray Reflections | Episode 59

A conversation with Peter Atwater on how shifts in confidence explain today’s AI boom, tariff talk, Trump’s influence, and the S&P 500’s path.

share.transistor.fm