Peter Atwater
@peteratwater.bsky.social
President of Financial Insyghts. Adjunct Professor William &Mary. Author of "The Confidence Map." Lover of bad puns.
As Americans join together for Thanksgiving this week, I am struck by how much AI must feel like a "distant relative" to Main Street.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-yet...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-yet...
AI: Yet Another Distant Relative This Thanksgiving
On Thursday, Americans will come together around dining room tables to celebrate Thanksgiving. For some it will be a small gathering of close family.
www.linkedin.com
November 25, 2025 at 8:16 PM
As Americans join together for Thanksgiving this week, I am struck by how much AI must feel like a "distant relative" to Main Street.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-yet...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-yet...
Reposted by Peter Atwater
The boom in sports gambling and prediction markets is creating “emerging credit risks,” per Bank of America sherwood.news/markets/the-...
November 24, 2025 at 4:27 PM
The boom in sports gambling and prediction markets is creating “emerging credit risks,” per Bank of America sherwood.news/markets/the-...
As I write in "The Confidence Map," whether in business, politics, or sports, the character flaws that are eagerly ignored or overlooked when we confidence is high inevitably come back to bite leaders when it falls.
Then, it is only a question of when the knives come out.
Then, it is only a question of when the knives come out.
November 23, 2025 at 1:05 PM
As I write in "The Confidence Map," whether in business, politics, or sports, the character flaws that are eagerly ignored or overlooked when we confidence is high inevitably come back to bite leaders when it falls.
Then, it is only a question of when the knives come out.
Then, it is only a question of when the knives come out.
Feels like a good morning to reshare this excerpt from my blog post on "Why 'Unsinkable' Markets Matter"
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-un...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-un...
November 22, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Feels like a good morning to reshare this excerpt from my blog post on "Why 'Unsinkable' Markets Matter"
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-un...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-un...
FWIW - the sudden popularity of the terms the "K-Shaped Economy" and "affordability," the election of Zohran Mandani, and the release of the Epstein files are all variations on the same societal mood-driven theme.
November 22, 2025 at 1:08 PM
FWIW - the sudden popularity of the terms the "K-Shaped Economy" and "affordability," the election of Zohran Mandani, and the release of the Epstein files are all variations on the same societal mood-driven theme.
Talk about investor sentiment correlation...
"We own these two stocks that attract the gullible and conspiracy-minded and were surprised to learn that many of those same investors have lots of exposure to bitcoin..."
November 22, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Talk about investor sentiment correlation...
ICYMI - It was great to speak with @lizannsonders.bsky.social about "The Confidence Map" and how its framework applies to investing.
www.schwab.com/learn/story/...
www.schwab.com/learn/story/...
Charles Schwab
www.schwab.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:52 PM
ICYMI - It was great to speak with @lizannsonders.bsky.social about "The Confidence Map" and how its framework applies to investing.
www.schwab.com/learn/story/...
www.schwab.com/learn/story/...
FWIW - I can't shake the feeling that this has the high likelihood of becoming a classic "middle finger" bar chart...
November 21, 2025 at 1:02 AM
FWIW - I can't shake the feeling that this has the high likelihood of becoming a classic "middle finger" bar chart...
Our afternoon garage band name - "Digital Lettuce" comes from the AI space.
I suppose it begs the question whether AI can now turn over a new leaf.
I suppose it begs the question whether AI can now turn over a new leaf.
‘He related his astonishment at getting in an Uber and being bombarded with a driver’s speculative initiatives. “Within 2 minutes, he was talking about the stock market, Bitcoin, AI, Nvidia, the whole thing. And I’m, like, driving down Sunset Blvd with this guy, right?”’ fortune.com/2025/11/20/d...
One of the world’s most popular economists on why AI is ‘undoubtedly going to crash’: It’s built on ‘digital lettuce’—and the U.S. will be just fine anyway | Fortune
Irish economist David McWilliams is taking his “History of Money” to America: “You kind of feel the boominess of the place, right?” he told Fortune.
fortune.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Our afternoon garage band name - "Digital Lettuce" comes from the AI space.
I suppose it begs the question whether AI can now turn over a new leaf.
I suppose it begs the question whether AI can now turn over a new leaf.
Reposted by Peter Atwater
‘He related his astonishment at getting in an Uber and being bombarded with a driver’s speculative initiatives. “Within 2 minutes, he was talking about the stock market, Bitcoin, AI, Nvidia, the whole thing. And I’m, like, driving down Sunset Blvd with this guy, right?”’ fortune.com/2025/11/20/d...
One of the world’s most popular economists on why AI is ‘undoubtedly going to crash’: It’s built on ‘digital lettuce’—and the U.S. will be just fine anyway | Fortune
Irish economist David McWilliams is taking his “History of Money” to America: “You kind of feel the boominess of the place, right?” he told Fortune.
fortune.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
‘He related his astonishment at getting in an Uber and being bombarded with a driver’s speculative initiatives. “Within 2 minutes, he was talking about the stock market, Bitcoin, AI, Nvidia, the whole thing. And I’m, like, driving down Sunset Blvd with this guy, right?”’ fortune.com/2025/11/20/d...
The K-Shaped Economy was first and foremost a story about a divide in confidence between those at the top and those at the bottom. If you aren't familiar with why that matters, my book, "The Confidence Map" can help you understand its broad impacts.
www.amazon.com/Confidence-M...
www.amazon.com/Confidence-M...
The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity
The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity [Atwater, Peter] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity
www.amazon.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:43 PM
The K-Shaped Economy was first and foremost a story about a divide in confidence between those at the top and those at the bottom. If you aren't familiar with why that matters, my book, "The Confidence Map" can help you understand its broad impacts.
www.amazon.com/Confidence-M...
www.amazon.com/Confidence-M...
Too big to mail.
A dead sperm whale has washed up on Nantucket for the first time in decades. It’s too big to move — at least until officials figure out a plan.
Dead Sperm Whale on Nantucket Is Too Big to Move, for Now
A local nonprofit said the 52-ton mammal is “far too big, awkward and heavy to remove.” A town official later said it could be dragged out to sea by Thanksgiving.
nyti.ms
November 20, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Too big to mail.
Reposted by Peter Atwater
‘Artificial intelligence might be the most transformative technology in generations. It is also the most joyless. While Wall Street greets AI with open arms, ordinary Americans respond with ambivalence, anxiety, even dread.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
November 18, 2025 at 3:35 PM
‘Artificial intelligence might be the most transformative technology in generations. It is also the most joyless. While Wall Street greets AI with open arms, ordinary Americans respond with ambivalence, anxiety, even dread.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
Reposted by Peter Atwater
"This isn’t like the dot-com era," writes Greg Ip. Back then, "everyone had a web-based business idea."
Now, the optimism is among "executives calculating how much AI can reduce head count while workers wonder whether they will be replaced .."
Now, the optimism is among "executives calculating how much AI can reduce head count while workers wonder whether they will be replaced .."
‘Artificial intelligence might be the most transformative technology in generations. It is also the most joyless. While Wall Street greets AI with open arms, ordinary Americans respond with ambivalence, anxiety, even dread.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
November 18, 2025 at 3:41 PM
"This isn’t like the dot-com era," writes Greg Ip. Back then, "everyone had a web-based business idea."
Now, the optimism is among "executives calculating how much AI can reduce head count while workers wonder whether they will be replaced .."
Now, the optimism is among "executives calculating how much AI can reduce head count while workers wonder whether they will be replaced .."
While policymakers talk in the future tense and what they WILL do to address affordability, just a reminder that those at the bottom have a "Me Here Now" mindset and are looking for tangible actions that impact them today.
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
While policymakers talk in the future tense and what they WILL do to address affordability, just a reminder that those at the bottom have a "Me Here Now" mindset and are looking for tangible actions that impact them today.
For anyone interested in China's financial influence around the globe, William & Mary's latest AidData report was unveiled this morning. Its findings are truly remarkable.
news.wm.edu/2025/11/18/w...
news.wm.edu/2025/11/18/w...
W&M’s AidData: China’s lending portfolio shifts focus to US, EU, sensitive industries
New research tracks China’s secretive loans and grants in high-income and developing countries for the first time.
news.wm.edu
November 18, 2025 at 3:15 PM
For anyone interested in China's financial influence around the globe, William & Mary's latest AidData report was unveiled this morning. Its findings are truly remarkable.
news.wm.edu/2025/11/18/w...
news.wm.edu/2025/11/18/w...
Required reading:
Yet another K. As Greg Ip shares, there is an enormous contrast in the enthusiasm for AI between investors and tech and, well, everyone else.
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
Yet another K. As Greg Ip shares, there is an enormous contrast in the enthusiasm for AI between investors and tech and, well, everyone else.
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
The Most Joyless Tech Revolution Ever: AI Is Making Us Rich and Unhappy
Discomfort around artificial intelligence helps explain the disconnect between a solid economy and an anxious public.
www.wsj.com
November 18, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Required reading:
Yet another K. As Greg Ip shares, there is an enormous contrast in the enthusiasm for AI between investors and tech and, well, everyone else.
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
Yet another K. As Greg Ip shares, there is an enormous contrast in the enthusiasm for AI between investors and tech and, well, everyone else.
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
Reposted by Peter Atwater
i am not convinced that a current cast member of the real housewives of miami is "spending a fortune to live in extreme privacy." www.wsj.com/lifestyle/tr...
The Ultrarich Are Spending a Fortune to Live in Extreme Privacy
In Miami and elsewhere, the wealthy are moving in increasingly private spheres, shelling out big money to bypass the indignities of public life.
www.wsj.com
November 17, 2025 at 4:45 PM
i am not convinced that a current cast member of the real housewives of miami is "spending a fortune to live in extreme privacy." www.wsj.com/lifestyle/tr...
Whether it is those at the top in NYC or a Swiss bank that serves them, there is consistent response to financial constraints: "We'll just leave."
FWIW While the relative mobility of those at the top vs. those at the bottom doesn't get much attention, it is something to watch.
FWIW While the relative mobility of those at the top vs. those at the bottom doesn't get much attention, it is something to watch.
November 17, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Whether it is those at the top in NYC or a Swiss bank that serves them, there is consistent response to financial constraints: "We'll just leave."
FWIW While the relative mobility of those at the top vs. those at the bottom doesn't get much attention, it is something to watch.
FWIW While the relative mobility of those at the top vs. those at the bottom doesn't get much attention, it is something to watch.
Reposted by Peter Atwater
It Is a K-Shaped Economy for US Consumers $XLY $XLP
The strength of higher-income household balance sheets relative to those of lower-income households is the reason consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed consumer staples in recent months.
Torsten at Apollo
The strength of higher-income household balance sheets relative to those of lower-income households is the reason consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed consumer staples in recent months.
Torsten at Apollo
November 17, 2025 at 12:09 PM
It Is a K-Shaped Economy for US Consumers $XLY $XLP
The strength of higher-income household balance sheets relative to those of lower-income households is the reason consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed consumer staples in recent months.
Torsten at Apollo
The strength of higher-income household balance sheets relative to those of lower-income households is the reason consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed consumer staples in recent months.
Torsten at Apollo
Reposted by Peter Atwater
AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10% to 20% in the next one to five years, predicts Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. cbsn.ws/44c6Vgk
November 17, 2025 at 1:12 AM
AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10% to 20% in the next one to five years, predicts Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. cbsn.ws/44c6Vgk
Reposted by Peter Atwater
Without overdoing it, last night’s “SNL” captured something fundamental about the growing cultural resentment surrounding AI, writes Michael Tedder:
AI Anxiety Hits ‘SNL’
A memorable sketch tackled what happens when cutting-edge technology ends up disappointing Grandma.
bit.ly
November 16, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Without overdoing it, last night’s “SNL” captured something fundamental about the growing cultural resentment surrounding AI, writes Michael Tedder:
Confidence requires feelings of certainty and control. The new administration's approach to tariffs has left business leaders with neither...
Trump’s ‘incredibly complex’ tariffs suck up CEO time and company resources
Trump’s ‘incredibly complex’ tariffs suck up CEO time and company resources
The proliferation of trade regulations and threat of intensified enforcement has driven many companies to spend what could add up to tens of millions of dollars to ensure they are not running afoul of Trump's new duties.
dlvr.it
November 16, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Confidence requires feelings of certainty and control. The new administration's approach to tariffs has left business leaders with neither...
Move over Jenga Tower. Welcome to the Water Tower Economy!
An enormously heavy, intensely fragile, closed system of liquidity at the very top with not much of anything below it to keep it from swaying should a strong wind blow...
An enormously heavy, intensely fragile, closed system of liquidity at the very top with not much of anything below it to keep it from swaying should a strong wind blow...
November 16, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Move over Jenga Tower. Welcome to the Water Tower Economy!
An enormously heavy, intensely fragile, closed system of liquidity at the very top with not much of anything below it to keep it from swaying should a strong wind blow...
An enormously heavy, intensely fragile, closed system of liquidity at the very top with not much of anything below it to keep it from swaying should a strong wind blow...
‘If things weren’t already frothy enough around AI, now the excitement is headed toward the Moon—literally.’ www.wsj.com/tech/now-tec...
Now Tech Moguls Want to Build Data Centers in Outer Space
Energy constraints in the artificial-intelligence race are causing tech companies to think out of this world.
www.wsj.com
November 16, 2025 at 4:45 PM