Patrick Honohan
@phonohan.bsky.social
Former Governor, Central Bank of Ireland. @PIIE.com; @TCDeconomics; @CEPR.org
My pet peeve about using GDP as a measure of national economic power. I suggest an adjustment that may get closer to reality. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
China vs. the US: Which GDP is bigger?
Has China yet surpassed the United States in aggregate economic power? Perhaps not. Although China’s GDP, at market prices and exchange rates, is still much lower than that of the United States, the o...
www.piie.com
December 19, 2025 at 6:21 PM
My pet peeve about using GDP as a measure of national economic power. I suggest an adjustment that may get closer to reality. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Nice review from @omfif.bsky.social of my @piie.com book on crisis management. www.omfif.org/2025/08/cent...
Central banking manual for fighting crises: the need for split personalities - OMFIF
Patrick Honohan, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland from 2009 to 2015 – the seminal period of euro area sovereign debt upsets – is a central banker who almost literally grew up with economic and ...
www.omfif.org
August 27, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Nice review from @omfif.bsky.social of my @piie.com book on crisis management. www.omfif.org/2025/08/cent...
Mackerel sky, Dublin tonight.
August 9, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Mackerel sky, Dublin tonight.
How much capital do central banks really have? My new
@piie.com paper provides the calculation for twenty countries. There are some surprises.
@piie.com paper provides the calculation for twenty countries. There are some surprises.
Central banks are incurring losses, @phonohan.bsky.social writes, because of impact of rising interest rates on their maturity mismatched portfolios & losses on foreign exchange reserves accumulated attempting to avoid currency overvaluation. But comparing experiences is not straightforward.
How much capital do central banks really have?
Twenty or more of the world’s most significant central banks have seen their equity position (or capital and reserves) go negative in the last few years. This novel situation does not fundamentally ch...
www.piie.com
July 7, 2025 at 5:48 PM
How much capital do central banks really have? My new
@piie.com paper provides the calculation for twenty countries. There are some surprises.
@piie.com paper provides the calculation for twenty countries. There are some surprises.
On the other hand, mysterious non-standard notional assets appear in the accounts of others, obscuring their true negative marked-to-market condition. My @PIIE blog post highlights this for four leading central banks. (A working paper covering another twenty is coming soon).
July 1, 2025 at 7:10 PM
On the other hand, mysterious non-standard notional assets appear in the accounts of others, obscuring their true negative marked-to-market condition. My @PIIE blog post highlights this for four leading central banks. (A working paper covering another twenty is coming soon).
Some European central banks report negative net worth even though their gold holdings, when valued at market price, make their marked-to-market capital quite high.
July 1, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Some European central banks report negative net worth even though their gold holdings, when valued at market price, make their marked-to-market capital quite high.
Central bank accounting is not standardised, making their financial condition hard to compare. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
How much money have central banks really lost?
Central banks experienced widespread financial losses over the last three years. The problem has been most severe at banks whose balance sheets were bloated in the years of low interest rates and quan...
www.piie.com
July 1, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Central bank accounting is not standardised, making their financial condition hard to compare. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Thanks so much to Philip Lane, Agustin Benetrix @tcdeconomics.bsky.social, Alan Barrett @esri.ie ie and all the distinguished participants for my birthday conference @ria.ie and this absorbing special issue of my favourite journal.
April 17, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Thanks so much to Philip Lane, Agustin Benetrix @tcdeconomics.bsky.social, Alan Barrett @esri.ie ie and all the distinguished participants for my birthday conference @ria.ie and this absorbing special issue of my favourite journal.
Studying the macroeconomic policy questions of Ireland over the past fifty years (with many colleagues) has been fascinating. The black hole of MNC profit repatriation, stabilizing the fiscal accounts, migration and unemployment, wealth inequality and financial crisis: there’s no better laboratory.
The Spring edition of the ESR is now available. This issue is based upon a special conference in honour of @phonohan.bsky.social. It features 3 papers relating to fiscal, growth and financial sector policy as well as articles in response from a panel of experts and...
www.esr.ie/index.php/es...
www.esr.ie/index.php/es...
April 17, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Studying the macroeconomic policy questions of Ireland over the past fifty years (with many colleagues) has been fascinating. The black hole of MNC profit repatriation, stabilizing the fiscal accounts, migration and unemployment, wealth inequality and financial crisis: there’s no better laboratory.
Essentially all of this deficit comes from pharmaceuticals. An additional sectoral tariff on pharmaceuticals is the shoe that has not yet dropped. It will.
April 3, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Essentially all of this deficit comes from pharmaceuticals. An additional sectoral tariff on pharmaceuticals is the shoe that has not yet dropped. It will.
The 42% comes from dividing the US merchandise trade deficit with Ireland (US$86.7 billion according the US data), by Ireland's exports to the US ($103.3 billion). Half of this is 42%.
April 3, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The 42% comes from dividing the US merchandise trade deficit with Ireland (US$86.7 billion according the US data), by Ireland's exports to the US ($103.3 billion). Half of this is 42%.
Given the (strange) way yesterday's new US tariffs were calculated, Ireland escapes a much higher tariff (42%) by being included in the EU (20%).
April 3, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Given the (strange) way yesterday's new US tariffs were calculated, Ireland escapes a much higher tariff (42%) by being included in the EU (20%).
Interesting combination and seasonal timing for this podcast from @bruegel.bsky.social
Happy #StPatricksDay! ☘️
Today, we dive into Ireland’s journey from crisis to confidence.
@rebeccawire.bsky.social speaks with Eamon Gilmore, former Foreign Minister, and @phonohan.bsky.social on Ireland’s recovery, housing crisis, and global role.
#EconSky
Today, we dive into Ireland’s journey from crisis to confidence.
@rebeccawire.bsky.social speaks with Eamon Gilmore, former Foreign Minister, and @phonohan.bsky.social on Ireland’s recovery, housing crisis, and global role.
#EconSky
Ireland’s journey from crisis to confidence
A conversation on Ireland’s economic recovery, housing crisis, and international role
buff.ly
March 17, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Interesting combination and seasonal timing for this podcast from @bruegel.bsky.social
You rarely see any 1c (or 2c) coins in Ireland since we introduced a rounding system in October 2015.
It works like this:
Rounding is voluntary and applies only to cash payments;
Your bill is rounded up or down to the nearest 5c;
1c and 2c coins are still legal tender.
Everyone is happy.
It works like this:
Rounding is voluntary and applies only to cash payments;
Your bill is rounded up or down to the nearest 5c;
1c and 2c coins are still legal tender.
Everyone is happy.
February 13, 2025 at 10:07 AM
You rarely see any 1c (or 2c) coins in Ireland since we introduced a rounding system in October 2015.
It works like this:
Rounding is voluntary and applies only to cash payments;
Your bill is rounded up or down to the nearest 5c;
1c and 2c coins are still legal tender.
Everyone is happy.
It works like this:
Rounding is voluntary and applies only to cash payments;
Your bill is rounded up or down to the nearest 5c;
1c and 2c coins are still legal tender.
Everyone is happy.
Reposted by Patrick Honohan
Ireland collects much of the corporate tax revenue a more coherent US tax code would channel back across the Atlantic. Ireland could also be in the firing line as a major & growing contributor to the US trade deficit—now 4th in the world. By @phonohan.bsky.social: www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
Patrick Honohan: Ireland is more exposed to Trump’s tariff war than any other European country
Without turning away from the United States, it is vital for Ireland to remain unambiguously and progressively engaged in collective action in support of Europe
www.irishtimes.com
February 10, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Ireland collects much of the corporate tax revenue a more coherent US tax code would channel back across the Atlantic. Ireland could also be in the firing line as a major & growing contributor to the US trade deficit—now 4th in the world. By @phonohan.bsky.social: www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...
Through Waterford-born Nobel prize-winning Physicist Ernest Walton (1903-95), Ireland has a better claim than the United States to having been the first (along with New Zealander Ernest Rutherford and Englishman John Cockroft), to have "split the atom". www.atomicarchive.com/history/manh...
The Atomic Solar System
The Manhattan Project: Making the Atomic Bomb.
www.atomicarchive.com
January 21, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Through Waterford-born Nobel prize-winning Physicist Ernest Walton (1903-95), Ireland has a better claim than the United States to having been the first (along with New Zealander Ernest Rutherford and Englishman John Cockroft), to have "split the atom". www.atomicarchive.com/history/manh...
Disappointing indeed. International regulatory collaboration is needed to help prevent climate damage from the financial sector.
While California burns & Florida drowns @federalreserve.bsky.social is exiting NGFS. While it did not have much enthusiasm to start with, it is a sign that US is not willing to work with rest of the world on climate ⛔️ grim start to 4-year misery to begin today
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Federal Reserve Board announces it has withdrawn from the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)
The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced it has withdrawn from the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Whi
www.federalreserve.gov
January 21, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Disappointing indeed. International regulatory collaboration is needed to help prevent climate damage from the financial sector.
Here is ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane recommending my new @piie.com book The Central Bank as Crisis Manager in today’s ECB Podcast (Minute 15:30). soundcloud.com/europeancent...
Tariffs, tensions and tackling inflation: the road ahead
What impact do global events have on our economy? And how has the ECB’s monetary policy shifted?
As 2024 comes to an end, our host Paul Gordon discusses these questions and more with Chief Economist
soundcloud.com
December 20, 2024 at 9:37 PM
Here is ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane recommending my new @piie.com book The Central Bank as Crisis Manager in today’s ECB Podcast (Minute 15:30). soundcloud.com/europeancent...
Good idea. I’ll do the same. 50 years for me since I finished the same LSE MSc, in the days of Gorman, Sargan, Durbin, Morishima and some youngsters who are now giants (Sen, Dasgupta, Hendry…)
December 19, 2024 at 11:44 AM
Good idea. I’ll do the same. 50 years for me since I finished the same LSE MSc, in the days of Gorman, Sargan, Durbin, Morishima and some youngsters who are now giants (Sen, Dasgupta, Hendry…)
Online at 6 pm Wednesday (Dublin time)
DECEMBER 11: The launch of @phonohan.bsky.social's new book "The Central Bank as Crisis Manager," drawing lessons from recent crises across four continents & calling on central banks to prepare for crisis management. #EconSky
Info & register: www.piie.com/events/2024/...
Info & register: www.piie.com/events/2024/...
December 10, 2024 at 2:30 AM
Online at 6 pm Wednesday (Dublin time)
And the patterns are fairly persistent:
November 29, 2024 at 6:29 PM
And the patterns are fairly persistent:
(The other outliers are AC=Accommodation and food services, TR=Transportation; ED=Education. Full names in the cso.ie website from which the chart has been calculated.)
Home - CSO - Central Statistics Office
cso.ie
November 29, 2024 at 6:29 PM
(The other outliers are AC=Accommodation and food services, TR=Transportation; ED=Education. Full names in the cso.ie website from which the chart has been calculated.)
And one sector provides an interesting exception to the lackluster 2019-2024 sectoral real earnings growth in Ireland. It's the Information and Communication sector (shown below as IT), already with relatively high weekly earnings and still racing ahead as it has for many years.
November 29, 2024 at 6:29 PM
And one sector provides an interesting exception to the lackluster 2019-2024 sectoral real earnings growth in Ireland. It's the Information and Communication sector (shown below as IT), already with relatively high weekly earnings and still racing ahead as it has for many years.
If it's economics that drives voting in general elections, the question for Ireland today is whether it's microeconomics or macro. (See the NYT piece by @fotoole). These graphs quantify the contrast between rocketing aggregate employment growth and below peak average real earnings.
November 29, 2024 at 3:33 PM
If it's economics that drives voting in general elections, the question for Ireland today is whether it's microeconomics or macro. (See the NYT piece by @fotoole). These graphs quantify the contrast between rocketing aggregate employment growth and below peak average real earnings.
I think it’s spelled “Winsorizing”. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsori...
November 27, 2024 at 11:35 AM
I think it’s spelled “Winsorizing”. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsori...